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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. Matias

    Matias Active Member

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    #2221 Matias, Mar 11, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
    [​IMG]
    If I understand that correctly, he is speaking about the local ICU beds, not ICU beds in the whole USA. In that figure it says USA has ICU beds 2.8/10 000 adults. So with population of 327 000 000 and approximately 80% adults, it would mean approximately 73000 ICU beds. So Wuhan (less than 3000 critically ill, approximating from the chart) would not saturate all the U.S. ICU beds, but of course all _local_ ICU beds.

    Maybe this was all clear to everyone else, but it made me to scratch my head for a while. Im surprised, that only the maximum burden of the epidemic saturates all the local ICU beds. Of course those beds are normally only 31.8% free (according to the same chart). And what is propably most important, Wuhan limited the disease with complele lock down.
     
  2. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Sounds like Italy plans to take a page from China's book - impose strict health standards on businesses, ban public gatherings, etc etc.

    Well, it works. It's not fast or convenient, but it works.

    Unrelated....

    [​IMG]
     
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  3. jerry33

    jerry33 (S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20

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    I thought that what was said was that asymptomatic transmission was not a main source, not that it never happened.
     
  4. ev-enthusiast

    ev-enthusiast Active Member

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    Might be true.

    Once infections are reduced in one area, later there might be an other area where there is a new outbreak.
    Normally the virus spread stops at about 70% of infections from all people.
    In case this is what will happen we will have to deal with this virus during the next months.
    And I certainly do not hope so.
     
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  5. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    Or you were both exposed at the same time, and (scary enough) it wasn't her bringing it home from work. Entirely possible.
     
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  6. AlexS

    AlexS Member

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    extrapolating from H1N1 pandemic in 2009

    US had biggest death toll, around 3k, but confirmed cases(110 000) were less than in China (120 000)
    China had 800 deaths.

    So we can expect 10k deaths in US and confirmed cases will be less than in China.

    Unfortunately very much possible, but comparing to deaths from influenza(30k), it is just 1/3

    Probably deaths from Corona would be same people who otherwise would be taken by flu.

    Expect 20k deaths from flu and 10k from corona in USA in flu season 2019-2020.
     
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  7. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    This is where I see us heading. Many businesses will suffer but this is where I see us heading.
     
  8. saniflash

    saniflash Member

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    is there already reliable data about the development of the pandemic on the Southern hemisphere (e.g. from Brazil or Australia)? Would be interesting to watch the trend there to understand if warmer weather helps or not.
     
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  9. BornToFly

    BornToFly Supporting Member

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    There is talk at my clinic that with spring and the end of flue season coming the outbreak will be fairly limited now, but really hit hard this coming winter (unless vaccine development/testing can be accelerated). Makes sense....
     
  10. shootformoon

    shootformoon Member

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    #2230 shootformoon, Mar 11, 2020
    Last edited: Mar 11, 2020
    You must be kidding. Out of China, Japan and South Korea data. IMHO the only plausible is SK this time. Japan has Olympics, i.e. incentive to under report.

     
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  11. Lasairfion

    Lasairfion Member

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  12. Snapdragon III

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    I do not have an answer for that one, but anacdotally it seems to spread around her work place alarmingly fast, and efficiently. Seemed an order of magnitude more infectious than previous virus they had dealt with. She was very careful coming home to leave shoes outside, immediately take off clothes and put them strait in washer, then immediately take a shower. We both came down with symptoms within a couple hours of each other. I had not left the house for about 9 days before, as I knew I had contact with her, and did not want to spread it around to anyone else.
     
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  13. BornToFly

    BornToFly Supporting Member

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    The American Academy of Orthopedic Surgeons has cancelled it's annual meeting that was schedule to take place in 2 weeks in Florida. 27,000 attendees. The economic impact to the hotels, etc., will be massive.
     
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  14. Don TLR

    Don TLR Active Member

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    Sorry if this has already been posted but on my favorite podcast with Joe Rogan is Medical Detective Michael Osterholm who track infectious diseases.

     
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  15. dl003

    dl003 Active Member

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    Can you summarize the main point? Thank you.
     
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  16. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    San Diego has been cancelling multiple similar conferences.
     
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  17. aubreymcfato

    aubreymcfato Supporting Member

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    I've just found this, probably useful for the data-driven minds here like @KarenRei, and maybe even some human users.
    Power BI Report
     
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  18. Ocelot

    Ocelot Member

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    Firstly, hope you wake up feeling a bit better..and progress to symptom free from there.
    I am curious as to what was the first symptom?
     
  19. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    The incubation range is 2 - 7 days. More than enough for serial transmission to appear concurrent
     
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  20. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    I had posted a paper earlier.

    The average incubation period is more than average time it takes to transmit the disease to another person. So, on the average infected patients have already transmitted the disease before any symptoms show up. There is another paper from yesterday that says a patient can infect while just breathing (no need for sneezing/coughing etc) (will post the link when I find it).

    I won't be surprised if initial WHO findings turn out to be optimistic.
     
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