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Not letting the WHO in to investigate the origins is the biggest red flag they could throw on this.

What would barring them do? Better question. Wat would letting them in now achieve? I imagine that whatever evidence is there is already destroyed. So even if they get in, they won't find anything. So why is china denying tgem entry?
 
What would barring them do? Better question. Wat would letting them in now achieve? I imagine that whatever evidence is there is already destroyed. So even if they get in, they won't find anything. So why is china denying tgem entry?

The WHO is good at their job. They would go sample the animals that are suspected to have been the cross-over points for this. It's very doubtful the Chinese would have eradicated the entire population. Genetic fingerprints are pretty much impossible to get rid of, but time does make the investigation harder.
 
There are indicators, usually the restriction enzyme sites would be changed from some wild-type precursors, but the key would be finding the precursor viruses and analyzing them.

I'm of the camp, from the data I have seen, that this is a wild-type virus due to some crossover events from other species (not uncommon).

The sequence of the virus has been known for 12 months now, and is public domain, if there were major red flags of genetic manipulation, I believe we would have had the alarm sounded by now.
I assume then that it would be impossible to detect that a new virus was the result of directed evolution of a older virus since that process is fundamentally natural?
 
U.S. officials report more severe allergic reactions to COVID-19 vaccines

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Wednesday it is carefully monitoring allergic reactions to the coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc and urged individuals who had a serious reaction not to get the second dose.

In a conference call with reporters, the U.S. public health agency said allergic reactions are occurring at a rate of 11.1 per 1 million vaccinations. That compared with flu vaccines, in which such reactions occur at a rate of 1.3 per 1 million shots.
 
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U.S. officials report more severe allergic reactions to COVID-19 vaccines

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said on Wednesday it is carefully monitoring allergic reactions to the coronavirus vaccines from Pfizer Inc and Moderna Inc and urged individuals who had a serious reaction not to get the second dose.

In a conference call with reporters, the U.S. public health agency said allergic reactions are occurring at a rate of 11.1 per 1 million vaccinations. That compared with flu vaccines, in which such reactions occur at a rate of 1.3 per 1 million shots.
Darn. This will mean more people who aren't at risk for allergies will use it as an excuse not to get vaccinated (and fuel the anti-vax sentiment that is already out of hand).
 
...What would letting them in now achieve? I imagine that whatever evidence is there is already destroyed. So even if they get in, they won't find anything...

Way back when COVID was new(ish), and I first started posting in this thread, I started off by posting some "news/rumors" that China may have been trying to cover up the origins and I got slammed for spreading "conspiracy theories", and told "now is not the time to start an investigation"... and we should "wait until we get the virus under control before circling back to study where it came from..." So new conspiracy theory: maybe they were trying to convince people to not investigate until they had time to cover up whatever they didn't want found, and prepare a response to any questions that get raised...?

If there is any sort of cover-up it might be as simple as not wanting to admit an embarrassing lab mistake, or even to plant doubt that the virus even originated in China at all.
If there is some some intention behind it, I doubt we will ever find out.

One possible "mistake" could be that the virus was among many collected from bat caves in an out of the way place where it may not have spread (at least not right away) but was brought into the city to be studied and somehow got released. So a possible theory is that we accidentally accelerated its' leap from animals to humans. So some well intentioned effort could have caused things to be worse than they would have on their own. Say for instance it was an old strain in the research labs that would have naturally died out in the bats but we kept it around for research purposes.

I think there is scientific consensus the virus itself is likely of natural origin originally. But there is always a question of how it ended up spreading from Wuhan. I think the PR efforts were successful in getting everyone to drop the "Wuhan Flu" moniker it once had.
 
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It’s interesting how we put so much energy into understanding the virus origin, was it bat, pangolin or lab etc rather than trying to calculate the cost/benefit of different policies no matter the origin. Now half a year later I hear very little talks about bats and wet markets and mostly talks about masks and vaccines. I feel that the we the people were herded to focus on specific issues to distract us from questions that were uncomfortable for the leaders because they were difficult and there were no good answers. Questions that potentially could have saved thousands of lifes if we had ended up betting on a better answer.
 
There are indicators, usually the restriction enzyme sites would be changed from some wild-type precursors, but the key would be finding the precursor viruses and analyzing them.

I'm of the camp, from the data I have seen, that this is a wild-type virus due to some crossover events from other species (not uncommon).

The sequence of the virus has been known for 12 months now, and is public domain, if there were major red flags of genetic manipulation, I believe we would have had the alarm sounded by now.

I dont think the virus was edited, but i do suspect its an unitended escape from the wuhan lab where transgenic mouse models (human ace2) were likely used to study natural sars coronavirus similar to 2003 edition https://www.jax.org/Strain/UrlAsPDF/034860

Molecular mimicry between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and mammalian proteomes: implications for the vaccine
 
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I dont think the virus was edited, but i do suspect its an unitended escape from the wuhan lab where transgenic mouse models (human ace2) were likely used to study natural sars coronavirus similar to 2003 edition https://www.jax.org/Strain/UrlAsPDF/034860

Molecular mimicry between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and mammalian proteomes: implications for the vaccine

No, no, no.

A SARS-CoV2 like virus caused disease in workes who cleaned out lots of guano from a cave in China in 2012. This was the likely precursor to the current virus. But it was not good a infecting from person to person.

The current virus is a wild type virus, that originated in the wild, I'm convinced there was no intended or unintended human hand in this, other than the way you mix a lof of species in a wet market.

A Proposed Origin for SARS-CoV-2 and the COVID-19 Pandemic - Independent Science News | Food, Health and Agriculture Bioscience News
 
Brazil’s Covid-19 death toll tops 200,000 amid new spike in cases

Brazil’s COVID-19 death toll passed 200,000 on Thursday, the health ministry said, as daily new cases accelerated to a record of 87,843 after year-end holidays in the country with the world’s second-deadliest outbreak.​

Second only to the US in deaths and like the US their numbers are still going up.
 
It’s interesting how we put so much energy into understanding the virus origin, was it bat, pangolin or lab etc rather than trying to calculate the cost/benefit of different policies no matter the origin. Now half a year later I hear very little talks about bats and wet markets and mostly talks about masks and vaccines. I feel that the we the people were herded to focus on specific issues to distract us from questions that were uncomfortable for the leaders because they were difficult and there were no good answers. Questions that potentially could have saved thousands of lifes if we had ended up betting on a better answer.

Also, understanding "how this happened" can be more of a learning lesson to prevent future mistakes and not viewed as a "witch hunt" to lay blame.
 
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/01/08/covid-arthritis-drugs-treatment/

"Two rheumatoid arthritis drugs that suppress the immune system may help critically ill patients survive covid-19, providing a benefit even on top of the steroids that have been doctors’ main tools in treating the most serious cases of illness, according to a new study released Thursday before peer review.
British regulators cited the new results as they promptly approved the two drugs, tocilizumab and sarilumab, for use in patients in intensive care units. The relative risk of death was reduced by 24 percent when given to people within 24 hours of admission, the data showed.
...
The results had an unusual path into the public domain. A week before Thanksgiving, one arm of a large clinical trial called REMAP-CAP was halted, through an announcement on Twitter, after a board monitoring patients in the trial had found that the drugs were so effective that it would be unethical to continue giving placebo to critically ill patients.

The clear finding came as a surprise to one of the investigators running the trial, after conflicting evidence on the utility of the drug tocilizumab from other trials. Most of the patients in the trial had already been on steroids, the inexpensive treatment that had shown to be successful at reducing deaths for people who require oxygen."
...
The data published Thursday showed that patients were given tocilizumab, sarilumab or usual treatment within a day of requiring organ support in the ICU — most typically patients who were on high-flow oxygen or a ventilator. Tocilizumab is manufactured by Roche under the label Actemra, and sarilumab is sold as Kevzara by Sanofi and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals. The drugs, which block certain immune molecules from triggering inflammation, are far more expensive than the cheap steroids already being given to those patients.
The list price of the dose of Kevzara used in the trial is about $3,600. The maximum dose used in the trial of Actemra currently carries a list price of $4,600, but the dose varied by patients’ body weight and could be given either once or twice. Bob Purcell, a spokesman for Genentech, a member of the Roche Group, said that the drug was not approved for use in covid-19 and the pricing might differ if it were approved to treat the illness.
The trial measured the success of the drug by the number of days patients didn’t need organ support, but found that much of the benefit came from preventing death, Angus said.
About 36 percent of patients died in the hospital who received standard care, while 28 percent died on tocilizumab and 22 percent died when given sarilumab. Patients treated with the drugs spent about a week less in the ICU, on average.

Angus said that earlier this week, when the final analysis of the results were ready, there was a discussion about what to do with them.
“We had this extensive conversation Monday night: should we put the results on the preprint server? The National Health Service of the United Kingdom felt like it’s time to give these drugs to patients — we can’t wait for this to go to a journal and peer review,” Angus said.
But he expects physicians in the US may be more conservative, at least waiting for a formal publication — especially given that official treatment guidelines from the Infectious Diseases Society of America currently recommend against giving tocilizumab to patients.

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Piece by piece
 
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I think the PR efforts were successful in getting everyone to drop the "Wuhan Flu" moniker it once had.

Maybe. In my opinion, though, it appears those susceptible to such childish nonsense just fell back on "China Virus." Sweet.

Anyway, we'll eventually find out about the origin. I don't think it's going to be that easy to hide, tbh. It sounds like there are some respected researchers out there who feel that it cannot yet be ruled out as the outcome of some GOF research. I'm too lazy to link here but Bloom Lab had some tweets and references. But that's not saying it was.
 
It sounds like there are some respected researchers out there who feel that it cannot yet be ruled out as the outcome of some GOF research. I'm too lazy to link here but Bloom Lab had some tweets and references. But that's not saying it was.

? (from 2015):
A SARS-like cluster of circulating bat coronaviruses shows potential for human emergence
...Using the SARS-CoV reverse genetics system2, we generated and characterized a chimeric virus expressing the spike of bat coronavirus SHC014 in a mouse-adapted SARS-CoV backbone. The results indicate that group 2b viruses encoding the SHC014 spike in a wild-type backbone can efficiently use multiple orthologs of the SARS receptor human angiotensin converting enzyme II (ACE2), replicate efficiently in primary human airway cells and achieve in vitro titers equivalent to epidemic strains of SARS-CoV...
...On the basis of these findings, we synthetically re-derived an infectious full-length SHC014 recombinant virus and demonstrate robust viral replication both in vitro and in vivo...
...to examine the emergence potential (that is, the potential to infect humans) of circulating bat CoVs, we built a chimeric virus encoding a novel, zoonotic CoV spike protein—from the RsSHC014-CoV sequence that was isolated from Chinese horseshoe bats1—in the context of the SARS-CoV mouse-adapted backbone. The hybrid virus allowed us to evaluate the ability of the novel spike protein to cause disease independently of other necessary adaptive mutations in its natural backbone...
 
https://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/handle/10665/338480/9789240018440-eng.pdf?sequence=1&isAllowed=y
5.1.2 Determining times of origin and early diversificationIt was particularly important to determine when SARS-CoV-2 first emerged in humans, since this could provide an indication of whether there was a long period of undetected transmission before the first clinical cases were seen (and hence possibly many undetected cases). SARS-CoV-2 genomes from Wuhan and surrounding areas of Hubei province provided a number of key insights. All the sequences were extremely closely related, differing by only a few nucleotide variants. Several early molecular clock dating exercises using these sequences gave estimated times for the appearance of the most recent common ancestor of all the sequenced SARS-CoV-2 viruses as the period from November to December 2019. These initial estimates have been confirmed as more sequences have become available. The latest possible date of emergence of SARS-CoV-2 in humans is therefore November–December 2019. This is close to the first identification of the initial cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan in mid-December (59–61)...


https://twitter.com/NimwegenLab/status/1346832058258173957

https://twitter.com/K_G_Andersen/status/1346953439314497536
 
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Non-scientific speculative article:
The Lab-Leak Hypothesis
...Lynn Klotz warned that there was an 80 percent chance, given how many laboratories were then handling virulent viro-varietals, that a leak of a potential pandemic pathogen would occur sometime in the next 12 years.

A lab accident — a dropped flask, a needle prick, a mouse bite, an illegibly labeled bottle — is apolitical. Proposing that something unfortunate happened during a scientific experiment in Wuhan — where COVID-19 was first diagnosed and where there are three high-security virology labs, one of which held in its freezers the most comprehensive inventory of sampled bat viruses in the world — isn’t a conspiracy theory. It’s just a theory. It merits attention, I believe, alongside other reasoned attempts to explain the source of our current catastrophe...
...Richard Ebright, a molecular biologist at Rutgers University, wrote that he’d been concerned for some years about the Wuhan laboratory and about the work being done there to create “chimeric” (i.e., hybrid) SARS-related bat coronaviruses “with enhanced human infectivity.” Ebright said, “In this context, the news of a novel coronavirus in Wuhan ***screamed*** lab release.”...
 
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