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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. MXLRplus

    MXLRplus Active Member

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    #23621 MXLRplus, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    Yesterday I was inoculated @ Riverside County, California, Indio Fairgrounds site:

    Phase 1a now includes employees involved in the manufacture of COVID-19 response related equipment:
    Updated COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation Guidelines -
    "...workers who are manufacturing vaccine, therapeutics, devices, supplies or personal protective equipment supporting the COVID-19 response are included due to the adverse public health impact that delays in production would cause. ..." Our company has been doing extensive work with the respirators since March 2020.

    I had the Moderna shot 24h ago. No side-effects yet. I have slight muscular pain at the injection site which is normal for muscle shots. My wife has significantly more pain at the injection site, and fatigue.
    They will email me in ~7-10 days to set up second shot for 28+ days after initial shot.

    By Monday, all my staff will be innoculated except one. One employee refuses to get the shot due to a history of severe reactions to flu vaccines. In such cases, COVID-19 vaccination is not suggested.

    Everything went smooth, it was well organized.
     
    • Like x 5
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  2. Jeff N

    Jeff N Active Member

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    Not a doctor or an immunologist, but fatigue is a common symptom of viral infections including influenza. It probably can have multiple causes, but my impression is that a common cause is the immune system reaction rather than direct cardiac damage etc. For example, interferons can cause fatigue and they are released as part of the early immune response to a viral infection being detected.
     
    • Like x 1
  3. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    The big difference we are seeing with COVID-19 is that these symptoms persist, many times for months or indefinitely, in people that have successfully fought off the infection. It is a very worrisome trend that does not track with other viral infections.
     
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  4. NikolaACDC

    NikolaACDC Member

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    Press release
    Moderna Announces it has Shipped Variant-Specific Vaccine Candidate, mRNA-1273.351, to NIH for Clinical Study | Moderna, Inc.
    "Moderna, Inc. (Nasdaq: MRNA), a biotechnology company pioneering messenger RNA (mRNA) therapeutics and vaccines, announces that it has completed manufacturing of clinical trial material for its variant-specific vaccine candidate, mRNA-1273.351, against the SARS-CoV-2 variant known as B.1.351 first identified in the Republic of South Africa, and has shipped doses to the National Institutes of Health (NIH) for a Phase 1 clinical trial that will be led and funded by the NIH’s National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID).
    ..."
     
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  5. NikolaACDC

    NikolaACDC Member

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    Some single-dose results

    Effectiveness of First Dose of COVID-19 Vaccines Against Hospital Admissions in Scotland: National Prospective Cohort Study of 5.4 Million People by Eleftheria Vasileiou, Colin R. Simpson, Chris Robertson, Ting Shi, Steven Kerr, Utkarsh Agrawal, Ashley Akbari, Stuart Bedston, Jillian Beggs, Declan Bradley, Antony Chuter, Simon de Lusignan, Annemarie Docherty, David Ford, Richard Hobbs, Mark Joy, Srinivasa Vittal Katikireddi, James Marple, Colin McCowan, Dylan McGagh, Jim McMenamin, Emily Moore, Josephine-L.K Murray, Jiafeng Pan, Lewis Ritchie, Syed Ahmar Shah, Sarah Stock, Fatemeh Torabi, Ruby S. M. Tsang, Rachael Wood, Mark Woolhouse, Aziz Sheikh :: SSRN
    "...
    Findings: The first dose of the BNT162b2 vaccine was associated with a vaccine effect of 85% (95% confidence interval [CI] 76 to 91) for COVID-19 related hospitalisation at 28-34 days post-vaccination. Vaccine effect at the same time interval for the ChAdOx1 vaccine was 94% (95% CI 73 to 99). Results of combined vaccine effect for prevention of COVID-19 related hospitalisation were comparable when restricting the analysis to those aged ≥80 years (81%; 95% CI 65 to 90 at 28-34 days post-vaccination).

    Interpretation: A single dose of the BNT162b2 mRNA and ChAdOx1 vaccines resulted in substantial reductions in the risk of COVID-19 related hospitalisation in Scotland.
    ..."
    -----------------
    Would still appear that the UK plan of going with only one dose for the time being is the right one.

    Also possibly aided by this data
    Oxford COVID vaccine 'has better protection the longer second dose is delayed'
    "The Oxford/AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine gives better protection the longer is left before a second dose, a government immunisation adviser has said.

    Professor Anthony Harnden, deputy chair of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI), said data supports a delayed second dose of the Oxford jab, but that “we’re not so sure” about Pfizer's rival vaccine.
    ..."
     
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  6. NikolaACDC

    NikolaACDC Member

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    'Long Covid' now has a name - Post-Acute Sequelae of SARS-CoV-2 infection (PASC)

    And it's clear it will be a long story of pain and problems for many people, even those with minor initial symptoms.

    Long-haul Covid: Clinics are springing up around the country - CNN

    "The more than 100 symptoms reported by patients include fatigue, headaches, brain fog and memory loss, gastrointestinal problems, muscle aches and heart palpitations. Some have even developed diabetes.
    "I just am so amazed by what comes through on a daily basis," said Dayna McCarthy, who treats Covid long haulers at New York's Mount Sinai. She hears a long list of symptoms, including brain fog, rapid heart rates and irregular blood pressure."
    ...
    "Researchers who followed people infected with the coronavirus for up to nine months -- the longest follow-up to date -- found that 30% were still reporting symptoms, and more than that reported a worse quality of life than before they got the virus, according to a research letter published Friday.
    Most of the people followed --150 out of 177 -- had "mild" disease and had not been hospitalized."

    ------
    It really is clear it's a good idea not to get it - even if you're young and healthy and at low risk of developing a severe case.
    Unless you're a gamblin' (wo)man...
     
    • Informative x 2
  7. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    #23627 scottf200, Feb 25, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 25, 2021
    TN rep tweeted this:
    @CDCgov launched a new tool to help you find vaccines available near you! TN is 1 of 4 states with data on all vaccine providers, including hospitals, clinics, and public health vaccination sites. More information added for more states in the coming weeks.

    I found it listed them for states that are not listed in those 4. Probably just related to the nationwide places like Walgreens.

    VaccineFinder

    a) lets you pick a vaccine if you have a preference.
    b) shows if they are in stock yet.

    UPDATE:
    It appears this site has been around a while but was used for Flu vaccines and other vaccines and mainly focused on Covid-19 for now. Text on it.

    VaccineFinder is temporarily suspending information on flu and routine vaccination services. Call your healthcare provider or department of health if you are in need of a flu or routine vaccine.
     
    • Informative x 2
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  8. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    Interestingly, there is preliminary, anecdotal evidence that perhaps 40% of long COVID patients are feeling better after getting their first dose of vaccine!!!

    Here is a discussion about why - but it's speculated (if it even has any effect at all) that it either resets the immune system, or perhaps helps eliminate viral reservoirs in the body (for example in the central nervous system).

    https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1365107279427760128?s=20

    This presumably isn't going to do much good for people with heart damage, lung damage, etc., unless they also suffer from symptoms due to these other potential problems.

    Of course it could be that the vaccine is doing nothing for long COVID, and it's either placebo (which is real), or the long COVID symptoms are easing over time in any case. But I'm sure there will be follow-up to try to figure it out!
     
    • Informative x 5
  9. TespaceX

    TespaceX Member

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    So, with pending J&J 2-dose trial result data expected in May, anyone has a guess as to how much of a marginal benefit the extra dose would need to show for J&J and/or FDA to suggest making it a 2-dose regimen? Maybe they would also have to weigh the supply chain to the increased efficacy.
     
  10. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23630 AlanSubie4Life, Feb 26, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 26, 2021
    It's probably going to be about 4x the antibody titer, so probably not quite the insane titers that the two-dose Moderna/Pfizer has (the second dose can increase titers by more than an order of magnitude, and close to two orders in some cases). But should be pretty good. To me, it looks like the second dose also reduces variability of the titer - and the minimum titer is probably the important part if there is a correlation to disease prevention. Look how tight they are, relative to HCS (natural infection). Of course, antibody titer is an imperfect metric. Though so far the correlation with efficacy appears to be not too bad. Immunology is complicated.

    (For example, the lower titers in >65 might suggest less disease prevention - and that's what the results released today show for the single dose.)

    I don't know what the FDA will decide. I guess it will depend on how much it actually helps.

    https://twitter.com/profshanecrotty/status/1356692102113976320?s=20
    Screen Shot 2021-02-26 at 7.05.03 PM.png

    Screen Shot 2021-02-26 at 6.56.42 PM.png
     
    • Informative x 3
  11. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    I will "guess" - probably 20% additional efficacy, which is substantial.

    I don't like tracking Antibody titers because they only loosely correlate with efficacy.
     
    • Informative x 1
  12. jbcarioca

    jbcarioca Well-Known Member

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    Among my relatives there are four who contracted COVID-19 in early April 2020, among the first people in Brazil to be infected all at a wedding reception that was held at a house a few meters from our property. We did not attend due to a conflict, luckily for us. Among the ~50 people incepted all had been close to an Italian relative who had come from Bergamo to the wedding and became ill the day after the event. Moving on...
    among the six people I know who attended and were infected four have since been diagnosed with heart diseases. None had any prior problems. All had recovered from COVID-19 seemingly without difficulty. One was late 30's, the other three were all in their 60's-70's.

    When I heard about these I had not been aware of any widespread connection and in fact none of them imagined a connection. The last few months seem to have shown a very common collateral effect that is often not linked to the original disease.

    I wonder how much of that collateral damage has been happened but not linked to the COVID-19 event. Do you know? Do any of you have current epidemiological linkages formally reported? I wonder, because these linkages might not seem obvious when nobody is thinking of the linkage.

    This reminds me of events in the late 1960's when I was an epidemiologist. It was mysterious unexplained subsequent morbities that ended out making advances, back then in the 'dark ages'. Have we advanced since then? That is not a rhetorical question.
     
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  13. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    My understanding, is that these answers are not known beyond some "observations" and are active areas of research and follow up. There is a large enough population of post-infected people in the US that we should be able to obtain some very good statistics about this over the coming months/years.
     
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  14. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Now you know what the next elections “culture war” issue is going to be.

    Most bewildering thing is the ease with which people switch from totally believing in crackpot theories/conspiracies/religions to “skeptics” when it comes to vaccines or climate change.
     
    • Like x 6
  15. TEG

    TEG Teslafanatic

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    A Google search on "covid heart disease" turned up this:
    What COVID-19 is doing to the heart, even after recovery
    (Note, targeted internet searches tend to turn up positive answers to almost any question... So be weary of "echo chamber" effects... )
     
    • Helpful x 1
  16. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    Very long article, but a good one:

    5 Pandemic Mistakes We Keep Repeating

    “it’s become clear that toward the end of spring 2021, supply will be more than sufficient. It may sound hard to believe today, as many who are desperate for vaccinations await their turn, but in the near future, we may have to discuss what to do with excess doses.”

    "Of course these vaccines reduce transmission."

    The future looks very bright. As feared, too much relaxation of reasonable restrictions right now appears to possibly be causing cases to plateau (very unfortunate). I guess we will know more about the actual trend this week - some of this could be an overhang effect from the bad weather. We just had to stay very careful for a few more weeks to get to all-time lows! Oh well.

    Even so, seems like this is fortunately going to come to a rapid end, in spite of all of this. Vaccinations going strong, and so as long as that supply keeps ramping up to the expected 24 million plus per week by the end of March, we’ll be doing so well in just a few weeks - even if the virus surges. We may well FINALLY have a “casedemic” (such a ridiculous term) on our hands - people, especially middle-aged people, will definitely still be dying in droves (with IFRs of ~0.1%) if a resurgence happens, but the absolute numbers will be substantially reduced.

    I’m hoping that the vaccinations have been targeting those most at risk of infection and death and that can strongly snub any resurgence, but we will see.
     
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  17. daniel

    daniel Active Member

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    I don't follow you. People who believe in conspiracies also believe that the pandemic and climate change are conspiracies. They call themselves skeptics but they're actually just denialists.
     
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  18. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    Pfizer 14million/week by mid-March.
    Moderna 10million/week by (early?) April
    J&J ~5million/week in March.

    So: Potentially could have 80-90million doses delivered in March. If these delivery schedules are met.

    Nearly 3 million per day! We did 2.4 million yesterday so delivery seems unlikely to limit things.

    That would mean well over 10(2xPfizer in March)+26(second in March)+~15(J&J)million additional fully vaccinated in March. 51million. (15.5%) Taking total fully vaccinated to over 22%.

    Plus an additional 20-25million newly partially vaccinated. Another 7%.

    That takes total at least partially vaccinated to 30% if all goes well. If I got the numbers right. Doing this quickly.

    Going to be a Miracle March. COVID doesn’t have a chance. We need to keep the pressure on, on all fronts, though. Crush it like a bug.
     
    • Like x 4
  19. cwerdna

    cwerdna Active Member

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    #23639 cwerdna, Feb 28, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
    Was watching a story on a recent 60 Minutes ep on (ridiculous) QAnon. The video is currently up at but I'm guessing it'll go away soon. QAnon's corrosive impact on the U.S. has it up now but it'll probably soon end up behind the CBS All Access paywall.

    It had one angle that I hadn't thought of before:
    Kinda on this topic: Delta passenger hit flight attendant after mask dispute, faces $27,500 fine, FAA says.
     
    • Informative x 3
  20. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    Current chart here but they may not update numbers until they see actuals delivered (vs news). Path to Herd Immunity - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections
    [​IMG]
     
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