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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    I believe he assumes two doses are required for immunity. But not sure. You’d have to read his (long) assumptions list. I’ve read it before but it went in one ear and out the other.

    I don’t know whether he accounts for delay from vaccination to immunity.

    Anyway doesn’t seem too far off, but I suspect his curves will end up slightly pessimistic if the projected vaccine supply really comes through if h.
     
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  2. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Not really - those are properly dealt with. See the assumptions.

    But, here is the main problem.

    • Important: The only SARS-CoV-2 variant we are currently modeling is the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in the UK (see Jan 11 update below). There is a high amount of uncertainty with our estimates that is not reflected in the chart. While we are showing our best estimate, is possible that true infections curve can be dramatically different (e.g. a fourth wave in March).. We are monitoring for more data regarding the other variants.
    BTW, today marks the first anniversary of first reported fatality from Covid in US. We essentially went into isolation after this event - stopped going to office, meeting friends, sending kids to school, sanitizing packages etc.

    Incidentally I also got the first dose yesterday - so far no side effects apart from stiffness at vaccine location.
     
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  3. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    To complete your quote.

    • January 11: In response to the new COVID-19 B.1.1.7 variant (preliminary study here), we increased our herd immunity threshold from 60%+ to 70%+. We have also increased our total infections estimates (30% -> 35-40%) and deaths estimates (500k -> 600k ±100k) in response to this new strain and a slower-than-expected vaccination rollout. We are in the process of gathering more data to better incorporate this variant into our modeling (e.g. Jan 15 CDC modeling).
     
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  4. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23644 AlanSubie4Life, Feb 28, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
    Looks like he just assumes first dose to be vaccinated/immune (after three weeks or something).

    Yeah, we’ll see. I am not too worried about variants. I think we’ll get a much better idea this week with the weather impacts settling out. It looks to me that IF these projections for supply actually come through and there is not some other silly bottleneck, the vaccine supply will end up being higher than he thinks.
    For example, I think these projections for first doses (less than 1 million mid-week this week) in the next couple weeks will prove pessimistic. With a weekly vaccine supply of close to 20 million now (18.5 million minimum I think) it’s inevitable it will exceed 1.3 million first doses daily very shortly (in the case of increasing supply, first doses must exceed 18.5mil/(7*2), and prior peak of first doses was only ~1 million, so for the next three weeks we won't exceed that for second doses...so that suggests we will see 1.6million first doses per day over the next 2-3 weeks). He doesn’t have 1.3 million first doses daily happening until March 21st!

    91181C86-248E-4C78-936D-CD30DB689B5A.jpeg

    We’ll see.

    The ARP with additional funding to throw at these federal agencies driving distribution can’t come soon enough so hopefully that stays on track for mid-March - really going to hockey-stick then.

    ABV - Always Be Vaccinating

    Obviously we have to out-do even these numbers, and continue to expand our lead in our world-beating vaccination campaign (yeah there are a couple of small countries doing better, but not really comparable). If we can do 5-10million doses a day, that will help protect us against the possible impact of variants down the road - or if immunity wanes and boosters are needed to help with protection and eradication, very high capacity would be wonderful to have.
     
  5. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Both Moderna and Pfizer have started phase 1 of varient specific boosters. So they are atleast somewhat worried.

    Possibly. But at some point we'll see a shift from supply constrained to demand constrained. As difficult as the supply increase seems to be - increasing demand is going to be far more difficult. Esp if the cases seem to be going down. Along with loosening restrictions, it would be ripe for another wave led by variants.

    That has what has happened in India - > 50% of healthcare professionals are rejecting vaccines - let alone others. I expect a variant led second wave in India sometime this year.

    In anycase - I think "herd immunity" is not the concern anymore. Return to normality is - herd immunity can be lost, just as it can be gained.
     
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  6. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    There's a lot to be said for having a booster that is targeted at the virus that has now properly adapted to the human body and probably has limited options to change too much more. They're likely to work really well, and provide a more optimized response! But that doesn't mean the existing vaccine won't work quite well.

    I think in late March or early April they'll probably have to open it up to everyone, to make sure they can use up all available supply. As a healthy person in my early 40s I expect I'll be vaccinated in late March or early April (previously I thought early March, but vaccine supplies were much slower to ramp than I expected (and opaque), since I was slightly biased by the "300 million doses by January" (or whatever) pronouncements). The future supply projections are now much less opaque.

    A damaging wave led by variants would only occur if there was substantial immune escape from the vaccine. That doesn't seem to be a big issue even with J&J yet. We don't have great data on the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines in this regard, though the correlates of protection (unreliable) indicate they might do just fine. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on sequencing data in Israel; should be an early indicator for any variant that has any fitness.

    Different vaccine and that 50% number appears to be a hesitancy number.

    Sure. A reason to keep increasing the amount of vaccine available and how quickly it can be administered, and ease the process of generating & approving new boosters.
     
  7. TheTalkingMule

    TheTalkingMule Distributed Energy Enthusiast

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    Nearly everyone I'm worried about is at least approaching their 2nd dose. I'm feeling pretty excited for spring.

    Once all the at-risk populations have been given at least the option of being vaccinated, it's party time......2021-style if course. No masks outdoors, just the supermarket and other crazy crowded and/or indoor venues.

    By the 4th of July nearly everyone over 35 or 40 should be vaccinated, then it's back to contracting venereal diseases from strangers! God bless us everyone!
     
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  8. winfield100

    winfield100 Supporting Member

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    walk in clinic today, (stitches from partially stab wound hand )

    25 yr old female other person there. intense headaches 1-2 days, lethargy, weakness, short of breath for 1-2 days, getting worse, no insurance. panic in her young voice. (bd 3/95)
    (anecdotal data)

    (i’m 72, wife 69, and still have not been able to get vaccinated but finally on a “we will call you when we get vaccine “)
     
  9. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23649 AlanSubie4Life, Feb 28, 2021
    Last edited: Feb 28, 2021
    So many questions.

    My dad was saying the same thing: "I signed up for the notifications for availability."

    No one is going to call you, at least, not if you want the vaccine ASAP. I had good luck (eventually) with my parents by continuously checking the local pharmacy websites for appointments. You literally have to do it continuously and explore multiple avenues. If you get lucky it might not take too long. Not sure where you live, but where I was looking for my parents (Oregon), there was Albertsons/Safeway, Walgreens. Walgreens' system made it a little easier to find appointments, but I ended up finding a local vaccine (walking distance!) through Albertsons (30-40 appointment slots were gone in about 15-20 minutes).

    Don't screw up entering data in the Albertsons/Safeway system, because you can't go back. You have to start over and then the slot you had secured will be gone. Lol. Happened to me but fortunately there were other slots that worked a couple days later.

    Obviously YMMV and it depends on where you live. But the local pharmacy route appears to be increasingly a really good option (no lines, no long wait, etc.) Downside is that it has higher risk than a drive-through clinic, but at this point everyone who wants them has access to proper 3M N95s and face protection, so it's probably ok.

    Really bouncing back hard from the deep freeze. It's going to get much better from here, barring any more SNAFUs:

    This is a much better use of Bloomberg's resources than their Model 3 tracker.

    More Than 241 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
    Screen Shot 2021-02-28 at 1.06.56 PM.png
     
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  10. ItsNotAboutTheMoney

    ItsNotAboutTheMoney Well-Known Member

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    I expect government is definitely concerned about herd immunity, because of low vaccination take-up in some communities.
     
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  11. madodel

    madodel X at the end of a rainbow

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    Talked to my wife briefly today about what she is seeing in her office. She is seeing a lot of former COVID patients, but most have co-morbidities (diabetes, obesity being the main ones she mentioned). Her other comment is she is seeing a lot of Atrial Fibrillation (irregular heartbeat). She's a cardiologist so she normally sees AFib a lot, but this is way more than normal for her to notice.
     
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  12. Ocelot

    Ocelot Member

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    there are several apps and browser extensions that can monitor for changes in websites and alert you when they change.

    I have never used any, and a bit too late for you, but might help others.

    Monitor web pages for changes with a Chrome extension
     
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  13. Blue_Sky

    Blue_Sky New Member

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    I know some of the main point of the vaccines are to lower the amount of hospitalizations, deaths and bring about herd immunity. I've seen that people, even in the vaccination trials have come down with covid, but no hospitalizations/death which is great news. However, it has been shown that some people with mild symptoms or even asymptomatic have shown heart, lung and other damage from the virus... has any studies shown if vaccinated people who still get mild covid are still having these same levels of damaging effects from the virus?
     
  14. bkp_duke

    bkp_duke Active Member

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    It's highly unlikely that the vaccinated individuals are going to have any of the long-term sequalae that those with COVID had. And that includes the breathing difficulties, heart disease, brain neurological changes, etc.

    Why? The immune system is already primed to fight off the disease, and does so before any of the long-term damage can occur. This principle is one of the foundational characteristics of vaccines and how they work to prevent disease and long-term consequences of that disease.
     
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  15. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    Thanks. Yes, had crossed my mind, and a friend used similar for securing for his parents. But I am bookmarking this for other future purposes.

    For my parents, I feel I actually got a little lucky - only had a few sessions of checking and then all of a sudden a bunch of appointments appeared.
     
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  16. dhanson865

    dhanson865 Active Member

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    and for a lighter take on social distancing

    [​IMG]
     
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  17. uujjj2

    uujjj2 Member

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    I'm currently in Florida, and in major metros (Orlando) it's not much different from California in the "red" tier. Not as strict as the purple/blue tiers. The vast majority of the people in stores, offices, and schools are wearing masks. The schools are all technically open but the majority of the kids are still online-only. Restaurants are open to indoor dining but very restricted capacity.

    But then in the beach towns the mask wearing is very patchy. It's like it varies from restaurant to restaurant and store to store, with half the places following protocols and half of them no masks no distancing whatsoever.
     
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    This is exactly the reason herd immunity doesn't make sense for US as a whole. There are just too many communities in the US where the virus can flourish - and people travel a lot.

    None of the theories take into account deliberate unhygienic behavior based on political propaganda.
     
  19. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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  20. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    Many show up in the whole USA one I posted about ... I put in Seattle zip 98101 as an example.
    Thread post above: Coronavirus
     
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