Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Very long article, but a good one:

5 Pandemic Mistakes We Keep Repeating

“it’s become clear that toward the end of spring 2021, supply will be more than sufficient. It may sound hard to believe today, as many who are desperate for vaccinations await their turn, but in the near future, we may have to discuss what to do with excess doses.”

"Of course these vaccines reduce transmission."

The future looks very bright. As feared, too much relaxation of reasonable restrictions right now appears to possibly be causing cases to plateau (very unfortunate). I guess we will know more about the actual trend this week - some of this could be an overhang effect from the bad weather. We just had to stay very careful for a few more weeks to get to all-time lows! Oh well.

Even so, seems like this is fortunately going to come to a rapid end, in spite of all of this. Vaccinations going strong, and so as long as that supply keeps ramping up to the expected 24 million plus per week by the end of March, we’ll be doing so well in just a few weeks - even if the virus surges. We may well FINALLY have a “casedemic” (such a ridiculous term) on our hands - people, especially middle-aged people, will definitely still be dying in droves (with IFRs of ~0.1%) if a resurgence happens, but the absolute numbers will be substantially reduced.

I’m hoping that the vaccinations have been targeting those most at risk of infection and death and that can strongly snub any resurgence, but we will see.

 

[daniel]

Most bewildering thing is the ease with which people switch from totally believing in crackpot theories/conspiracies/religions to “skeptics” when it comes to vaccines or climate change.

I don't follow you. People who believe in conspiracies also believe that the pandemic and climate change are conspiracies. They call themselves skeptics but they're actually just denialists.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Pfizer 14million/week by mid-March.
Moderna 10million/week by (early?) April
J&J ~5million/week in March.

So: Potentially could have 80-90million doses delivered in March. If these delivery schedules are met.

Nearly 3 million per day! We did 2.4 million yesterday so delivery seems unlikely to limit things.

That would mean well over 10(2xPfizer in March)+26(second in March)+~15(J&J)million additional fully vaccinated in March. 51million. (15.5%) Taking total fully vaccinated to over 22%.

Plus an additional 20-25million newly partially vaccinated. Another 7%.

That takes total at least partially vaccinated to 30% if all goes well. If I got the numbers right. Doing this quickly.

Going to be a Miracle March. COVID doesn’t have a chance. We need to keep the pressure on, on all fronts, though. Crush it like a bug.

 

[cwerdna]

Was watching a story on a recent 60 Minutes ep on (ridiculous) QAnon. The video is currently up at

but I'm guessing it'll go away soon. QAnon's corrosive impact on the U.S. has it up now but it'll probably soon end up behind the CBS All Access paywall.

It had one angle that I hadn't thought of before:

Lesley Stahl: What's happening now? The storm didn't happen. Where is QAnon today?

Joel Finkelstein: Now, they've been rebranded.

It's morphing and doubling down – on conspiracies about COVID vaccines and masks. Finkelstein says it makes sense for them to be anti-vax.

Lesley Stahl: If the pandemic ends, and If enough people get vaccinated and we have herd immunity-- will this thing begin to shrivel?

Joel Finkelstein: Well, it's funny you mention that. Doesn't that make sense why-- why the new target of the conspiracies is the vaccine? Because that's exactly what gives the extremists powers, Lesley.

Lesley Stahl: You're saying they need the pandemic, they need the eyeballs – spending twelve and more hours a day. And if we can get rid of this pandemic and isolation and quarantine, then are you suggesting the oxygen is depleted--

Joel Finkelstein: That is the oxygen.

Kinda on this topic: Delta passenger hit flight attendant after mask dispute, faces $27,500 fine, FAA says.

 

[scottf200]

Pfizer 14million/week by mid-March.
Moderna 10million/week by (early?) April
J&J ~5million/week in March.

So: Potentially could have 80-90million doses delivered in March. If these delivery schedules are met.
...
Going to be a Miracle March. COVID doesn’t have a chance. We need to keep the pressure on, on all fronts, though. Crush it like a bug.

Current chart here but they may not update numbers until they see actuals delivered (vs news). Path to Herd Immunity - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Current chart here but they may not update numbers until they see actuals delivered (vs news). Path to Herd Immunity - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections

I believe he assumes two doses are required for immunity. But not sure. You’d have to read his (long) assumptions list. I’ve read it before but it went in one ear and out the other.

I don’t know whether he accounts for delay from vaccination to immunity.

Anyway doesn’t seem too far off, but I suspect his curves will end up slightly pessimistic if the projected vaccine supply really comes through if h.

 

[EVNow]

I believe he assumes two doses are required for immunity. But not sure. You’d have to read his (long) assumptions list. I’ve read it before but it went in one ear and out the other.

I don’t know whether he accounts for delay from vaccination to immunity.

Anyway doesn’t seem too far off, but I suspect his curves will end up slightly pessimistic if the projected vaccine supply really comes through if h.

Not really - those are properly dealt with. See the assumptions.

But, here is the main problem.

• Important: The only SARS-CoV-2 variant we are currently modeling is the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in the UK (see Jan 11 update below). There is a high amount of uncertainty with our estimates that is not reflected in the chart. While we are showing our best estimate, is possible that true infections curve can be dramatically different (e.g. a fourth wave in March).. We are monitoring for more data regarding the other variants.

BTW, today marks the first anniversary of first reported fatality from Covid in US. We essentially went into isolation after this event - stopped going to office, meeting friends, sending kids to school, sanitizing packages etc.

Incidentally I also got the first dose yesterday - so far no side effects apart from stiffness at vaccine location.

 

[scottf200]

Important: The only SARS-CoV-2 variant we are currently modeling is the B.1.1.7 variant that was first detected in the UK

(see Jan 11 update below).

There is a high amount of uncertainty with our estimates that is not reflected in the chart. While we are showing our best estimate, is possible that true infections curve can be dramatically different (e.g. a fourth wave in March).. We are monitoring for more data regarding the other variants.

To complete your quote.

• January 11: In response to the new COVID-19 B.1.1.7 variant (preliminary study here), we increased our herd immunity threshold from 60%+ to 70%+. We have also increased our total infections estimates (30% -> 35-40%) and deaths estimates (500k -> 600k ±100k) in response to this new strain and a slower-than-expected vaccination rollout. We are in the process of gathering more data to better incorporate this variant into our modeling (e.g. Jan 15 CDC modeling).

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like he just assumes first dose to be vaccinated/immune (after three weeks or something).

But, here is the main problem.

Yeah, we’ll see. I am not too worried about variants. I think we’ll get a much better idea this week with the weather impacts settling out. It looks to me that IF these projections for supply actually come through and there is not some other silly bottleneck, the vaccine supply will end up being higher than he thinks.
For example, I think these projections for first doses (less than 1 million mid-week this week) in the next couple weeks will prove pessimistic. With a weekly vaccine supply of close to 20 million now (18.5 million minimum I think) it’s inevitable it will exceed 1.3 million first doses daily very shortly (in the case of increasing supply, first doses must exceed 18.5mil/(7*2), and prior peak of first doses was only ~1 million, so for the next three weeks we won't exceed that for second doses...so that suggests we will see 1.6million first doses per day over the next 2-3 weeks). He doesn’t have 1.3 million first doses daily happening until March 21st!

We’ll see.

The ARP with additional funding to throw at these federal agencies driving distribution can’t come soon enough so hopefully that stays on track for mid-March - really going to hockey-stick then.

ABV - Always Be Vaccinating

Obviously we have to out-do even these numbers, and continue to expand our lead in our world-beating vaccination campaign (yeah there are a couple of small countries doing better, but not really comparable). If we can do 5-10million doses a day, that will help protect us against the possible impact of variants down the road - or if immunity wanes and boosters are needed to help with protection and eradication, very high capacity would be wonderful to have.

 

[EVNow]

Yeah, we’ll see. I am not too worried about variants.

Both Moderna and Pfizer have started phase 1 of varient specific boosters. So they are atleast somewhat worried.

For example, I think these projections for first doses (less than 1 million mid-week this week) in the next couple weeks will prove pessimistic.

Possibly. But at some point we'll see a shift from supply constrained to demand constrained. As difficult as the supply increase seems to be - increasing demand is going to be far more difficult. Esp if the cases seem to be going down. Along with loosening restrictions, it would be ripe for another wave led by variants.

That has what has happened in India - > 50% of healthcare professionals are rejecting vaccines - let alone others. I expect a variant led second wave in India sometime this year.

In anycase - I think "herd immunity" is not the concern anymore. Return to normality is - herd immunity can be lost, just as it can be gained.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Both Moderna and Pfizer have started phase 1 of varient specific boosters. So they are atleast somewhat worried.

There's a lot to be said for having a booster that is targeted at the virus that has now properly adapted to the human body and probably has limited options to change too much more. They're likely to work really well, and provide a more optimized response! But that doesn't mean the existing vaccine won't work quite well.

But at some point we'll see a shift from supply constrained to demand constrained.

I think in late March or early April they'll probably have to open it up to everyone, to make sure they can use up all available supply. As a healthy person in my early 40s I expect I'll be vaccinated in late March or early April (previously I thought early March, but vaccine supplies were much slower to ramp than I expected (and opaque), since I was slightly biased by the "300 million doses by January" (or whatever) pronouncements). The future supply projections are now much less opaque.

Along with loosening restrictions, it would be ripe for another wave led by variants.

A damaging wave led by variants would only occur if there was substantial immune escape from the vaccine. That doesn't seem to be a big issue even with J&J yet. We don't have great data on the Pfizer/Moderna vaccines in this regard, though the correlates of protection (unreliable) indicate they might do just fine. It'll be interesting to keep an eye on sequencing data in Israel; should be an early indicator for any variant that has any fitness.

That has what has happened in India - > 50% of healthcare professionals are rejecting vaccines - let alone others. I expect a variant led second wave in India sometime this year.

Different vaccine and that 50% number appears to be a hesitancy number.

Return to normality is - herd immunity can be lost, just as it can be gained.

Sure. A reason to keep increasing the amount of vaccine available and how quickly it can be administered, and ease the process of generating & approving new boosters.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Nearly everyone I'm worried about is at least approaching their 2nd dose. I'm feeling pretty excited for spring.

Once all the at-risk populations have been given at least the option of being vaccinated, it's party time......2021-style if course. No masks outdoors, just the supermarket and other crazy crowded and/or indoor venues.

By the 4th of July nearly everyone over 35 or 40 should be vaccinated, then it's back to contracting venereal diseases from strangers! God bless us everyone!

 

[winfield100]

walk in clinic today, (stitches from partially stab wound hand )

25 yr old female other person there. intense headaches 1-2 days, lethargy, weakness, short of breath for 1-2 days, getting worse, no insurance. panic in her young voice. (bd 3/95)
(anecdotal data)

(i’m 72, wife 69, and still have not been able to get vaccinated but finally on a “we will call you when we get vaccine “)

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

(stitches from partially stab wound hand )

So many questions.

(i’m 72, wife 69, and still have not been able to get vaccinated but finally on a “we will call you when we get vaccine “)

My dad was saying the same thing: "I signed up for the notifications for availability."

No one is going to call you, at least, not if you want the vaccine ASAP. I had good luck (eventually) with my parents by continuously checking the local pharmacy websites for appointments. You literally have to do it continuously and explore multiple avenues. If you get lucky it might not take too long. Not sure where you live, but where I was looking for my parents (Oregon), there was Albertsons/Safeway, Walgreens. Walgreens' system made it a little easier to find appointments, but I ended up finding a local vaccine (walking distance!) through Albertsons (30-40 appointment slots were gone in about 15-20 minutes).

Don't screw up entering data in the Albertsons/Safeway system, because you can't go back. You have to start over and then the slot you had secured will be gone. Lol. Happened to me but fortunately there were other slots that worked a couple days later.

Obviously YMMV and it depends on where you live. But the local pharmacy route appears to be increasingly a really good option (no lines, no long wait, etc.) Downside is that it has higher risk than a drive-through clinic, but at this point everyone who wants them has access to proper 3M N95s and face protection, so it's probably ok.

Really bouncing back hard from the deep freeze. It's going to get much better from here, barring any more SNAFUs:

This is a much better use of Bloomberg's resources than their Model 3 tracker.

More Than 241 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

In anycase - I think "herd immunity" is not the concern anymore. Return to normality is - herd immunity can be lost, just as it can be gained.

I expect government is definitely concerned about herd immunity, because of low vaccination take-up in some communities.

 

[madodel]

Talked to my wife briefly today about what she is seeing in her office. She is seeing a lot of former COVID patients, but most have co-morbidities (diabetes, obesity being the main ones she mentioned). Her other comment is she is seeing a lot of Atrial Fibrillation (irregular heartbeat). She's a cardiologist so she normally sees AFib a lot, but this is way more than normal for her to notice.

 

[Ocelot]

So many questions.



My dad was saying the same thing: "I signed up for the notifications for availability."

No one is going to call you, at least, not if you want the vaccine ASAP. I had good luck (eventually) with my parents by continuously checking the local pharmacy websites for appointments. You literally have to do it continuously and explore multiple avenues. If you get lucky it might not take too long. Not sure where you live, but where I was looking for my parents (Oregon), there was Albertsons/Safeway, Walgreens. Walgreens' system made it a little easier to find appointments, but I ended up finding a local vaccine (walking distance!) through Albertsons (30-40 appointment slots were gone in about 15-20 minutes).

Don't screw up entering data in the Albertsons/Safeway system, because you can't go back. You have to start over and then the slot you had secured will be gone. Lol. Happened to me but fortunately there were other slots that worked a couple days later.

Obviously YMMV and it depends on where you live. But the local pharmacy route appears to be increasingly a really good option (no lines, no long wait, etc.) Downside is that it has higher risk than a drive-through clinic, but at this point everyone who wants them has access to proper 3M N95s and face protection, so it's probably ok.

Really bouncing back hard from the deep freeze. It's going to get much better from here, barring any more SNAFUs:

This is a much better use of Bloomberg's resources than their Model 3 tracker.

More Than 241 Million Shots Given: Covid-19 Tracker
View attachment 640759

there are several apps and browser extensions that can monitor for changes in websites and alert you when they change.

I have never used any, and a bit too late for you, but might help others.

Monitor web pages for changes with a Chrome extension

 

[Blue_Sky]

I know some of the main point of the vaccines are to lower the amount of hospitalizations, deaths and bring about herd immunity. I've seen that people, even in the vaccination trials have come down with covid, but no hospitalizations/death which is great news. However, it has been shown that some people with mild symptoms or even asymptomatic have shown heart, lung and other damage from the virus... has any studies shown if vaccinated people who still get mild covid are still having these same levels of damaging effects from the virus?

 

[bkp_duke]

I know some of the main point of the vaccines are to lower the amount of hospitalizations, deaths and bring about herd immunity. I've seen that people, even in the vaccination trials have come down with covid, but no hospitalizations/death which is great news. However, it has been shown that some people with mild symptoms or even asymptomatic have shown heart, lung and other damage from the virus... has any studies shown if vaccinated people who still get mild covid are still having these same levels of damaging effects from the virus?

It's highly unlikely that the vaccinated individuals are going to have any of the long-term sequalae that those with COVID had. And that includes the breathing difficulties, heart disease, brain neurological changes, etc.

Why? The immune system is already primed to fight off the disease, and does so before any of the long-term damage can occur. This principle is one of the foundational characteristics of vaccines and how they work to prevent disease and long-term consequences of that disease.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I have never used any, and a bit too late for you, but might help others.

Thanks. Yes, had crossed my mind, and a friend used similar for securing for his parents. But I am bookmarking this for other future purposes.

For my parents, I feel I actually got a little lucky - only had a few sessions of checking and then all of a sudden a bunch of appointments appeared.