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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. madodel

    madodel X at the end of a rainbow

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    Sounds more like they want to hockey stick it.

    Watching the news last evening and Abbot was being shown crowing about "opening up everything" came on and my wife, who usually doesn't say anything just kept repeating "this is going to be really bad." and "No this is not what they should be doing." It is always myself saying things to the TV (well usually yelling expletives) so that was interesting.
     
  2. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23683 AlanSubie4Life, Mar 3, 2021 at 10:19 AM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 10:38 AM
    Definitely going to be more deaths than the alternative this way. Vaccines work though, so if we are talking about the hospitalization curve I think they appear to be trying to keep it flat! That means more deaths of younger people of course, than the alternative.

    And it's a terrible idea to get rid of masks - there appears to be plenty of evidence that masks reduce the initial dose, which can reduce disease severity and spread (lower viral loads). And there is literally no downside to masking at this point. Makes no sense.

    It’s an odd strategy. But we’ll see what happens. I’m not convinced it will be “really bad.” Unless there is massive vaccine escape (in which case everyone is in trouble), I tend to think it won’t be. People WILL die unnecessarily though. Not really any strong evidence yet of significant immune escape anywhere, yet. It seems that natural infection prevents reinfection 70-80% of the time (very roughly; very hard to measure due to asymptomatic reinfection). Vaccines seem a bit better and probably prevent serious events, if infected/reinfected, more than natural infections do, based on the data so far. And they seem to protect better against the variants.

    We need to send more vaccine to Texas, that's for sure. ASAP.

    Comments on Manaus “counter example”:

    https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1364963342129971202?s=21

    I’m not sure about what to think about Wes, though. He can be a bit dismissive sometimes.
    I’m not going to dig into the IFR in Manaus either...it is hard to determine what it was. I just don't know, but I would say that study is definitely questionable. If the actual percent of the population infected in Manaus was 20-30% (seems completely possible - but would have to study the IFR closely), then a variant with partial immune escape (say 50%) doing really well is not that surprising.

    Here's a sampling study showing 25% or so: https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2214-109X(20)30387-9

    This guy tends to be a bit of an alarmist, to be honest. All I know is he has a poor reputation in epi circles, but I don't keep up with the drama. And Brazil isn't rolling out effective vaccines widely yet (just 3.4% immunized so far, Coronavac, unknown efficacy against P.1 - I saw one reference to a 6x reduction in neutralizing capacity which doesn't seem that bad, but depends on the starting point!). I doubt that P.1 will prove to be more than twice as transmissible. I wouldn't expect it to be significantly different from B.1.1.7 which has been much more closely studied, at this point. I guess that's my priors speaking. I'm not trying to minimize it...but I'd be surprised if it ends up much more infectious than B.1.1.7 (but that would still be bad).

    It looks to me like what is happening in Brazil is like what happened in the US. Just with different timing. And possibly a virus that is a bit more infectious.

    I guess we'll see. The good news is that the vaccines in the US look like they will work very well against it! We'll know in a couple months I guess.
     
    • Like x 2
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  3. uujjj2

    uujjj2 Member

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    Abbott may be counting on most Texans, especially in the major cities where viruses can spread fastest, to keep wearing masks voluntarily. That mask usage won't actually decline by much, and the resultant rise in the R0 reproduction ratio will be small enough that COVID won't explode before mass vaccination really gets going in April/May.
     
    • Funny x 1
  4. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23685 AlanSubie4Life, Mar 3, 2021 at 10:43 AM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 11:02 AM
    • Funny x 5
  5. jerry33

    jerry33 (S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20

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    Good luck with that one. I just had some plumbers in yesterday--no masks. Fortunately they weren't inside very long.
     
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  6. Needsdecaf

    Needsdecaf Member

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    This would be a horrendously false statement to make.

    On another note, off to buy a bunch of masks and update my list of restaurants who will continue to enforce a mask policy so I can keep eating out...
     
    • Like x 3
  7. Needsdecaf

    Needsdecaf Member

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    Why did you let them in your house without them?

    I have a huge box of disposables. If any worker shows up at my door without one, they will be politely asked if they do have one. If they don't I will offer a disposable one. If they refuse to wear one, I will politely tell them they are not welcome in my home.
     
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  8. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    I hope you followed the CDC guidelines and suggestions.
    During the time we had a household member in 10 day quarantine (their room) we keep the bathroom fan on throughout the day with that door open. We have a couple other things going on too for several months to limit airborne hitchhikers.
    [​IMG]
     
    • Like x 2
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  9. jerry33

    jerry33 (S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20

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    I took other precautions. And they were bigger than me.
     
    • Funny x 2
  10. Dave EV

    Dave EV Active Member

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    Honestly, I'm not sure how much that will help. Based on surveys I've seen (I thought it was this one at Civiqs, but it doesn't have a state-by-state breakdown), right-leaning states have a significant portion of their population that simply aren't willing to get vaccinated. In some demographics, I've seen stats as high as 9/10 being unwilling to get vaccinated. I have also had this level of vaccine rejection reported by an acquaintance in Texas.

    This is a real problem towards getting COVID under control.
     
  11. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    #23692 AlanSubie4Life, Mar 3, 2021 at 11:42 AM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 11:57 AM
    At some point this will be a problem, undoubtedly, but for now we just need everyone who is most at risk of infection, who wants to be vaccinated, to be able to get vaccinated. Still plenty of demand out there. We need to get the 20-50 age group vaccinated as well. In fact it may be even more helpful for improving "herd immunity" to immunize those who have the least risk of serious consequences of infection, and thus have the most risky behaviors. Obviously extremely high risk individuals must all be vaccinated or given the option first, but I think in most states we are through those groups (or very close).
     
  12. Dave EV

    Dave EV Active Member

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    Like I said - anecdotally, I have heard of an instance where workers at a vaccination site in Texas who were not able to find enough volunteers to be vaccinated at the end of the day when they had left-over vaccines, despite an abundance of people around who were not yet vaccinated. One example doesn't mean this is normal, of course, and the information I have found says that they are still supply limited overall.

    Fully reopening now is just crazy when we are just a couple months away from having enough vaccines for just about everyone, especially when there is still plenty of COVID going around in Texas.
     
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  13. AlanSubie4Life

    AlanSubie4Life Efficiency Obsessed Member

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    It wouldn't have been my choice, that's for sure. I guess it gets attention, draws it away from the energy debacle in that state.
     
    • Like x 2
  14. Needsdecaf

    Needsdecaf Member

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    Overblown.

    Yes, there is a portion who won't. But the vast majority DO want to. Even the anti-maskers. Right now we're at UNDER 7% and still in a category where you can't get vaccinated unless you're at risk or older.

    SEVEN PERCENT.

    So yeah, we need more vaccines for a while.
     
    • Like x 1
  15. Needsdecaf

    Needsdecaf Member

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    #23696 Needsdecaf, Mar 3, 2021 at 1:19 PM
    Last edited: Mar 3, 2021 at 2:00 PM
    That was a story about a doctor who was trying to find people who FIT THE CATEGORY of people able to take the vacciene. He was subsequently fired for what he did, which was give it away to the people he thought needed protecting the most. This happened locally to me, by a doctor in a town that I have projects in.

    Hasan Gokal, doctor fired after giving away expiring doses of COVID-19 vaccine, speaks out - CBS News

    The problem is that unless you're in the category that's active (currently 1B) then legally you're not allowed to get the vaccine. And it was late and he couldn't find people that fit in that category that hadn't already been vaccinated. Ridiculous what happened. And racist
     
  16. uujjj2

    uujjj2 Member

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    Another reason Texas is in a rush to reopen: money.

    California relies on income and capital gains taxes for revenue. It lucked out big time with the stock market/tech boom, and is swimming in surpluses. The state has more than enough cash in the coffers to eat the losses from keeping restaurants and tourist attractions closed. On the other hand, Texas relies on sales taxes and oil taxes for revenue, and those are down during the pandemic. The Texas state government has a much stronger revenue need for reopening than California.

    That explains why Abbott wants to get rid of capacity limits: packed bars and theaters pay more tax than half empty ones. (Still doesn't explain getting rid of mask rules.)
     
    • Informative x 2
  17. jerry33

    jerry33 (S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20

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    Actually Texas relies on property taxes. No change there. The no mask statment is more about distracting from the energy crisis of the other week. Anyone who used Griddy just got something like a $50,000+ electricity bill for the month. Kind of the energy equivalent of a short seller. (Actually, I don't know how it would work if you had Griddy, solar, and Powerwalls and make sure you did not take anything from the grid. Maybe you could even sell some back at the $9,999 /kW. Nah.)
     
    • Informative x 1
  18. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Only if you misinterpret what I said.

    Surely you know older voters vote R in larger numbers.
     
    • Disagree x 1
  19. scottf200

    scottf200 Active Member

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    Several things it appears via: Texas - Texas Tax Rates & Rankings | Texas State Taxes | Tax Foundation and Everything You Need to Know About Taxes in Texas

    6.25% / Rank: 13 / State Sales Tax Rate
    1.94% / Average Local Sales Tax Rate
    8.19% / Rank: 14 / Combined State and Average Local Sales Tax Rate

    $1259 / Rank:6 / State and Local General Sales Tax Collections per Capita
    20¢ / Rank: 44 / State Gasoline Tax Rate (cents per gallon)
    $1.41 / Rank: 21 / State Cigarette Tax Rate (dollars per 20-pack)
    1.69% / Rank: 7 / Property Taxes Paid as a Percentage of Owner-Occupied Housing Value
    $1872 / Rank: 13 / State and Local Property Tax Collections Per Capita
     
    • Informative x 1

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