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Coronavirus

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,303
27,869
Seattle, WA
Definitely getting to the point where PSAs & other outreach are essential to keep the demand rolling.
In one of the interviews with Fauci - he was asked why there aren't medical staff going around in vans door to door to vaccinate. He said because there aren't enough vaccines (probably a month back). Hopefully thats what they will do - get FEMA or other medical teams going door to door offering vaccines.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,238
11,035
San Diego
Interesting that SD and ND are going up again. Suggests that we have a ways to go before we get out of the woods if we want to relax restrictions. These states are hard hit and have been leading in vaccination rates (20% fully vaccinated). So I’d expect they have something like 50%+ immunity. Clearly not enough if you allow gathering indiscriminately, as everyone knows. I do think it is sufficient with substantial reasonable but not too restrictive measures in place - but have to get the case levels way down first! An increase of 15% from 10 cases is much less significant than an increase of 15% from 100 cases. The plateau in many states is far too high and hopefully we see further drops.

I’d expect these surges won’t survive three more weeks of vaccination, even in these places with minimal restrictions, and strong messaging from public officials that the pandemic is over and there is nothing to worry about, but I guess we’ll see how much momentum they gather.

For context:

392CF4CA-DD60-4D9E-B1AE-8E6EC44CF034.png
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Mar 8, 2012
19,565
21,936
Texas
In one of the interviews with Fauci - he was asked why there aren't medical staff going around in vans door to door to vaccinate. He said because there aren't enough vaccines (probably a month back). Hopefully thats what they will do - get FEMA or other medical teams going door to door offering vaccines.
Somewhat scary because someone could be giving fake vaccines, asking for money, or use it as an excuse to enter the home. A better plan would be to have an official van go to a neighbourhood on a publicized day.
 
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EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,303
27,869
Seattle, WA
Somewhat scary because someone could be giving fake vaccines, asking for money, or use it as an excuse to enter the home. A better plan would be to have an official van go to a neighbourhood on a publicized day.
This would be no different than fake police trying to enter homes ...
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,303
27,869
Seattle, WA
The plateau in many states is far too high and hopefully we see further drops.
In our county (King, includes Seattle) the 7-day avg has gone up from 135 to 200 this month. Fatalities has reduced to 2/day and may hold steady because younger people are getting covid more now.

The state has been flat ...
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,238
11,035
San Diego
because younger people are getting covid more now.
Yeah, the messaging is all messed up. I don't understand why it's so difficult to tell people that although it's ~100x less dangerous than it is for older people, the disease is still exceedingly dangerous to younger people, and that it is far from harmless, and they do not want to get it. It's like political leaders have just conceded the argument pushed by misinformation artists, and are not willing to communicate the message from their public health officials. Excess deaths in young people are way up! That's a big problem and it's not a difficult concept to grasp! Deaths are fairly uncommon in young people, but obviously far too common to be ignored.

The only group where an argument can possibly be made that it is "not too dangerous" is in the ~5-12 age group, where it does appear that it may be comparable to a typical flu mortality. The problem of course is the kids killing their parents (a significant problem) and grandparents (less an issue now with vaccination) when they bring it home. Wide open vaccination cannot come soon enough to avoid the whole "killing the parents" problem.
 
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dhanson865

Active Member
Feb 16, 2013
4,385
5,919
Knoxville, Tennessee
I have an appointment for my first shot tomorrow, 😷💉 I'll let you know if my arm falls off.

got it, smallest needle I've encountered since I was kid.

Seems like TN is opened up quite broadly, I filled out a super long form, made an appointment, brought an essential worker document with me and some one with 0 special classifications of any kind got the vaccine while I was there, no prior appointment.
 

EVNow

Well-Known Member
Sep 5, 2009
9,303
27,869
Seattle, WA
I don't understand why it's so difficult to tell people that although it's ~100x less dangerous than it is for older people, the disease is still exceedingly dangerous to younger people, and that it is far from harmless, and they do not want to get it. It's like political leaders have just conceded the argument pushed by misinformation artists, and are not willing to communicate the message from their public health officials.
While true - we shouldn't overlook the fact that a lot of younger people who get covid are service/blue-collar who have little choice.

Political leaders essentially conceded its ok to kill 500k people for profits. So have the people, essentially - esp. the "prolife" crowd.

This will never cease to amaze me - the cognitive dissonance needed to oppose some things that increase the risk of a few deaths (say Tesla's autopilot or more asylum seekers accepted) vs supporting "opening the economy" that will kill 100s of thousands (or various wars).
 

NikolaACDC

Member
Jan 21, 2020
270
1,159
...an undeveloping country...
Just got an email from the state, MN will open up vaccinations for anybody 16 and over starting Tuesday, March 30.
Currently and until then it was officially only for old / middle-age + 1 med. condition / younger with 2 med. condition and a few more groups.

They are skipping a group-step and are opening wide, this was more recently planned to happen early May.

Didn't see any open appointments on the different websites recently, maybe they are expecting larger shipments.
 
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TespaceX

Member
May 1, 2020
419
614
CA
That 72 number is looking awfully high considering an effectiveness rate > 90%. But without needed extra information - its just a scary clickbait.

How many people who had the vaccines did they test in total ? Over how many days of testing is this ? What is the infection rate among comparable demo without vaccines ...
So far ~800k people have been vaccinated in MN. They obviously didn’t test all those people and ended up with 89 total reinfections so far. There’s no data released on how much time after second dose these patients tested positive. But, Pfizer and Moderna’s studies were based on the fact that there were zero hospitalizations from 2 weeks and 1 week after the second dose, respectively. (I also wish they would have used a longer metric post second dose). I doubt every single one of those 89 reinfections happened within just 1-2 weeks of getting the vaccine. So, obviously, the vaccines don’t work just quite as excellently as they showed in trial results. I’m leaning towards there being at least some more reinfections than 89 if they tested all 800k residents right now.

On another note, looks like AZ has now dropped all mandates. No more masks.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,238
11,035
San Diego
Didn't see any open appointments on the different websites recently, maybe they are expecting larger shipments.

Yeah that 27 million will probably start going into arms in the first week of April. Apparently it was confirmed at the press conference this morning that 11 million J&J will go out next week. So that will probably show up in the CDC dataset next Tuesday.


Big deal since it means getting 11 million people fully vaccinated very quickly. There are going to be a lot of people getting J&J for the first time. I would guess that 27 million mystery from earlier is resolved by taking 11 million from J&J and 16 million for Pfizer/Moderna (which seems just about right since Pfizer will be around 11.5 million, probably, and Moderna is around 7 million). Ends up being 29 million but maybe the "around 11 million from J&J" will be closer to 10 million, and 27 million is rounded down out of caution.

Moderna is due for a jump soon and Pfizer is also still lagging expectations so I think the next jump up will be to 13 million (P) + 10 million (M) + 10 million J&J = 33 million. (4.7 million per day, about 3 million fully vaccinated per day.)

(J&J is supposed to deliver 100 million doses by June which would mean 80 million or so more over the next ~8 weeks.)
 
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NikolaACDC

Member
Jan 21, 2020
270
1,159
...an undeveloping country...
So far ~800k people have been vaccinated in MN. They obviously didn’t test all those people and ended up with 89 total reinfections so far. There’s no data released on how much time after second dose these patients tested positive. But, Pfizer and Moderna’s studies were based on the fact that there were zero hospitalizations from 2 weeks and 1 week after the second dose, respectively. (I also wish they would have used a longer metric post second dose). I doubt every single one of those 89 reinfections happened within just 1-2 weeks of getting the vaccine. So, obviously, the vaccines don’t work just quite as excellently as they showed in trial results. I’m leaning towards there being at least some more reinfections than 89 if they tested all 800k residents right now.

On another note, looks like AZ has now dropped all mandates. No more masks.
At least for MN they seem to only count re-infections as a vaccine breakthrough if tested positive more than 2 weeks since second dose.

Quote from the original article:
"Director of Infectious Diseases Kris Ehresmann said a "breakthrough" case is when a person gets COVID-19 after the two weeks following getting fully vaccinated."
 
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TespaceX

Member
May 1, 2020
419
614
CA
I've been Pfizerized. Second shot is done with no side effects at all. I wish they'd made this vac card wallet size.

I find this whole thing about the vaccine card to be silly. Some places across the country aren’t even giving out those cards according to friends and family. I know for a fact a few county vaccination sites and pharmacies around me that are not handing them out.
Plus, one can easily just call up their PCP to update their office saying they received the vaccine with no proof required. So, those vaccine cards, and any situation that requires proof of vaccination to participate in something, hold zero meaning IMO.
 
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rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,248
1,542
Orange County, CA
Interesting that SD and ND are going up again. Suggests that we have a ways to go before we get out of the woods if we want to relax restrictions. These states are hard hit and have been leading in vaccination rates (20% fully vaccinated). So I’d expect they have something like 50%+ immunity. Clearly not enough if you allow gathering indiscriminately, as everyone knows. I do think it is sufficient with substantial reasonable but not too restrictive measures in place - but have to get the case levels way down first! An increase of 15% from 10 cases is much less significant than an increase of 15% from 100 cases. The plateau in many states is far too high and hopefully we see further drops.

I’d expect these surges won’t survive three more weeks of vaccination, even in these places with minimal restrictions, and strong messaging from public officials that the pandemic is over and there is nothing to worry about, but I guess we’ll see how much momentum they gather.

For context:
Even more galling are the Florida statistics that ignore every spreader who contracts the virus but then return to their home state to spread it and get counted there. So the actual rate of infections in the Sunshine State is obfuscated.
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,248
1,542
Orange County, CA
I find this whole thing about the vaccine card to be silly. Some places across the country aren’t even giving out those cards according to friends and family. I know for a fact a few county vaccination sites and pharmacies around me that are not handing them out.
Plus, one can easily just call up their PCP to update their office saying they received the vaccine with no proof required. So, those vaccine cards, and any situation that requires proof of vaccination to participate in something, hold zero meaning IMO.
If they are not handing out those cards, they are not in compliance with the protocol.
 

TespaceX

Member
May 1, 2020
419
614
CA
If they are not handing out those cards, they are not in compliance with the protocol.
tldr: Right now, this pandemic doesn’t matter whether someone can prove they got a vaccine or not. What matters is that people do get vaccines.

Just like how all these places are supposed to be checking ID and verifying information before getting the shot? Which most places up and down the West Coast aren’t doing? All you need at many (most?) places is just to state your name and birthdate. Even UCSF has emailed members saying the state and their own system is all based on an honors system and no identification information will be verified. And, I know for a fact that some low-income clinics are not asking for any verification because of the demographics they serve.
Shutting down all these “non-compliant” sites, or not providing them supplies, because they’re not strictly following SOP would be the most ridiculous thing.
As many noted here, we just need more shots in arms as fast as we can.

Also, the lack of vaccine cards still does not negate the fact that one can just easily call their medical provider’s office to tell them you received the vaccine with no proof. Then your medical records can be shown as proof instead of the vaccine card. As someone verifying records, I would be multiples more inclined to believe a personal medical record than a piece of paper that can be easily forged.
 
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rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,248
1,542
Orange County, CA
Also, the lack of vaccine cards still does not negate the fact that one can just easily call their medical provider’s office to tell them you received the vaccine with no proof. Then your medical records can be shown as proof instead of the vaccine card. As someone verifying records, I would be multiples more inclined to believe a personal medical record than a piece of paper that can be easily forged.
Um, no. Please don't make up crap, especially specific to California as I practice in this very area and also know the laws. Every vaccination is entered into the California Immunization Registry. Until about four years ago, each locality or county had their own vaccine registries, which led to predicable gaps and resulting in duplicated vaccinations.

Checking CAIR would be the gold standard for verifying someone's vaccine status. See CAIR .. [Portal Main Page].

You can't just make up stuff to tell your doctor. Wow.
 

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,023
15,999
San Diego, CA
Um, no. Please don't make up crap, especially specific to California as I practice in this very area and also know the laws. Every vaccination is entered into the California Immunization Registry.

Checking CAIR would be the gold standard for verifying someone's vaccine status. See CAIR .. [Portal Main Page].

You can't just make up stuff to tell your doctor. Wow.

I was under the impression that the primary purpose for CAIR was for tracking pediatric immunizations. Given some of the things I've seen with the COVID vaccine, I'm not sure how up-to-date that would be for adults (I haven't looked up my record, but might do it if time permits soon).
 

rxlawdude

Active Member
Jul 10, 2015
2,248
1,542
Orange County, CA
I was under the impression that the primary purpose for CAIR was for tracking pediatric immunizations. Given some of the things I've seen with the COVID vaccine, I'm not sure how up-to-date that would be for adults (I haven't looked up my record, but might do it if time permits soon).
All vaccinations in California must be reported, regardless of patient age. It is the law, and regardless of the locus of immunization (e.g., mega vaccination center vs community vaccination center vs hospital system). See California Immunization Registry » COVID-19 Vaccine Reporting Information and Resources and https://www.cdph.ca.gov/Programs/CID/DCDC/CDPH Document Library/Immunization/IMM-1300.pdf

And to actually receive any supply of COVID vaccine, registration with CAIR is a predicate.

And if CAIR does not have your full record, it's most likely because whoever adminstered the vaccination didn't report it as required by law.
 

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