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Coronavirus

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
The author did make the point that some people were making too much politics about it and that just showing T-cells isn't enough.
Sorry didn’t read the whole thread from him / diverted to the paper. I have read it now, very informative.
I liked this analogy (speaking to how crappy the immune response to Covid is relative to vaccination):

 
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madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Apr 6, 2015
2,431
9,741
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
I don't know if anyone has seen this. Info from an immunologist

Got the J&J vaccine on March 17. Had a reaction within a couple of hours. had a fever for two days (peaked at 101.5 F), chills, bad muscle pain, etc. My partner went for neurofeedback a couple of hours after we got the shot and the appointment needed to be canceled because her brain was showing a clear reaction to the shot. Her therapist said he's seen a couple more cases of the same thing since her reaction. She was tired for about a week, but that was the only noticeable reaction. It does appear that the shot set her back in her neurofeedback progress though.

My doctor told both of us that if we reacted to the vaccine that fast, dissed my by saying since I it's a good sign our immune systems had already been exposed and knew what it was. Even though I could never prove it, I may have had COVID a year ago. That's the only time I had any symptoms (including loss of the sense of smell and taste for a few days).
I had the first shot of Moderna on Saturday. Only had a sore arm around the vaccination site for a day. My wife told me that since I had no other reaction, like swollen glans or fever that I probably didn't generate much immune reaction. I guess I have successfully avoided exposure over the past year despite her being exposed daily.
 

wdolson

Well-Known Member
Jul 24, 2015
7,449
9,937
Clark Co, WA
I had the first shot of Moderna on Saturday. Only had a sore arm around the vaccination site for a day. My wife told me that since I had no other reaction, like swollen glans or fever that I probably didn't generate much immune reaction. I guess I have successfully avoided exposure over the past year despite her being exposed daily.

I've heard from many who had the second shot that if they have a reaction, it's usually after the second shot.
 

cwerdna

Active Member
Jul 11, 2012
3,388
2,230
SF Bay Area, CA
Besides CSUB that I mentioned, How to schedule your COVID-19 vaccine | UC Davis Health got updated today and would be more convenient for Bay Area people than Bakersfield:
As of April 6, 2021, anyone age 16 and older is eligible for a COVID-19 vaccine at UC Davis Health. You do not have to live or work in Sacramento County to schedule a vaccine appointment. We currently have enough vaccine supply and appointments available to expand eligibility before the state’s expansion on April 15.

The COVID-19 vaccine is currently not available to anyone under age 16 as researchers and vaccine manufacturers are working to determine if it's safe for younger children. Pfizer is the only approved vaccine for 16- and 17-year-olds.
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Apr 6, 2015
2,431
9,741
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
Clear link between AstraZeneca and rare blood clots in brain, EMA vaccine chief says
“In my opinion we can now say it, it is clear that there is an association with the vaccine. However, we still do not know what causes this reaction,” Marco Cavaleri, chair of the vaccine evaluation team at the EMA, told Italian daily Il Messaggero when asked about the possible relation between the AstraZeneca shot and cases of brain blood clots.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
Perhaps Elon is coming out of his manic insane phase? As far as I can remember, this is the first reasonable tweet about COVID from Elon...ever. Better late than never.


And a follow-on explaining his thinking. I think he should get the vaccine when it is recommended by his doctors...with his infection in November he should probably get a vaccine ASAP, though likely he will be still somewhat protected (to be clear, just more likely than not, it's nowhere near 100%).

 
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TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,763
8,732
reasonable tweet...
"In very rare cases, there is an allergic reaction, but this is easily addressed with an EpiPen."
I would have stopped short of saying "easily addressed". EpiPen doesn't make everything "all better".
It may save someone's life, but still a trauma to go through.
Warnings
EpiPen is used to treat severe allergic reactions (anaphylaxis).

Seek emergency medical attention even after you use EpiPen to treat a severe allergic reaction. The effects may wear off after 10 or 20 minutes. You will need to receive further treatment and observation.

Not that I am trying to scare anyone about the vaccine. I just think we should be clear about how Epipens are not a complete solution to that concern.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
I would have stopped short of saying "easily addressed". EpiPen doesn't just make everything "all better"
Yeah I would have left that out altogether. But this is Elon so he could not resist it seems.

Seems that Bloomberg has also noticed the CDC tracking discrepancy. It's very odd. We're up to 45 million doses from an unknown manufacturer, which somehow the CDC doesn't track, as has been previously discussed (it's basically the difference between White House statements & the CDC data). My assumption is that these are doses going to the private pharmacy supply chain rather than allocations to state agencies for distribution as they see fit, or something like that. Very strange.

Not coincidentally, it looks like there are expectations for the next couple weeks to begin an increase in weekly vaccine volumes; you can see the somewhat increased slope, although actual deliveries have been tracking above expectations, so it won't be that much of an increase. It seems mainly driven by increased J&J and Moderna volume, though with these untracked manufacturer vaccine doses it's very hard to say what is actually going to happen, since we don't know where we are at.

Screen Shot 2021-04-07 at 3.35.29 PM.png
 
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AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
An interesting analysis of the breakdown of causes of death in 2020, and how many might have been uncounted COVID (or due to lack of medical attention and treatment due to COVID). We had an 18% (!!!) higher number of deaths (so far; the 2020 data isn't final) in 2020 than in 2019. 520k excess deaths vs. 380k COVID deaths - so 140k extra non-C19 deaths vs 2019!

It's a decent argument, correlating the non-COVID excess deaths by cause vs. the COVID deaths...and showing the most likely suspects (diabetes, Alzheimers, cardiac, stroke, kidney disease) track very well.

He also has an addendum providing an estimate of the dreaded "lockdown deaths." Seems like it could be on the order of 20-30k excess unnatural deaths (but obviously some of that could be trauma of losing loved ones, stress of dealing with the pandemic independent of lockdown, driving too fast, etc.). But undoubtedly there are some deaths that could be classified as lockdown (loss of job, etc.) deaths. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it seems like the "lockdown" (whatever that means) was the right call (assuming reducing mortality was the goal), though...


In the replies there's also another dataset linked to, looking at the data a different way. As you might expect, the misclassified deaths were largely in the first two surges. Deaths appeared to be much better classified in the surge that ended 2020.
 
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TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,763
8,732
^^^ There is the debate if people were passing because they couldn't get care for whatever they needed due to COVID taking all the hospital resources. Or maybe they got worse care because the hospital staff was exhausted from COVID. But some people (tongue in cheek?) claimed that avoiding medical procedures could help many people avoid chances of death because of the risks involved with surgeries and whatnot.

Also, some claimed that avoiding driving and flying ("lockdown") would also avoid some other causes of death such as traffic accidents.
On the other hand, maybe we had excessive home drinking going on. Lots of + and - to factor in...
 
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AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
There is the debate if people were passing because they couldn't get care for whatever they needed due to COVID taking all the hospital resources. Or maybe they got worse care because the hospital staff is exhausted from COVID.

For sure. (There's some discussion about this in the thread.) The interesting thing about that is that in the final surge the discrepancy and excess non-COVID deaths nearly went away. That was the worst surge, so you'd think that would be the worst for that sort of phenomenon.

So a more consistent hypothesis is that we got better at keeping track of COVID deaths as the year went on - remember massive testing capability really didn't start to come online until around September, and we probably got better at testing the right people.

I don't doubt that some people passed for the reasons you mention, and never had COVID, though - due to lack of regular doctor visits, unmanaged disease, worse medical care, etc. You'd also expect to some extent that deaths for those reasons would get lower as people got "used to" the new state of affairs. But I wouldn't expect the degree of reduction we see in the data.

I think the answer is that it's both!

medical procedures could help many people avoid chances of death because of the risks involved with surgeries and whatnot.
Yeah, I learned in this pandemic that that stat about medical care being one of the leading causes of death was likely a bad study or at least misinterpretation of the data.
 
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TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,763
8,732
Yeah, I learned in this pandemic that that stat about medical care being one of the leading causes of death was likely a bad study or at least misinterpretation of the data.

Well lets say you had a severe condition with a 20% chance of death each year...
But you can do a procedure with a 40% chance of death or full recovery.

If you decided to put that off until after COVID then you would reduce the excess death stats (on average) this year. But for you, waiting is a ticking time bomb, and your overall outcome % is worse for waiting.

Maybe later this year is going to be bad for excess deaths when people finally do that risky elective procedure they have been putting off.
 
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AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
Well lets say you had a severe condition with a 20% chance of death each year...
But you can do a procedure with a 40% chance of death or full recovery.

If you decided to put that off until after COVID then you would reduce the excess death stats (on average) this year. But for you, waiting is a ticking time bomb, and your overall outcome % is worse for waiting.

Maybe later this year is going to bad for excess deaths when people finally do that risky elective procedure they have been putting off.
Yeah. So far (starting in 2020), the putting it off (or COVID) has increased those death stats substantially. It's certainly possible that we'll have longer term higher mortality from some conditions though.

We'll find out in a year or two. If I had to guess what we'll see is: 1) high excess deaths through about May 2021. 2) Lower than normal deaths the rest of the year - we lost a lot of vulnerable, mostly older people - I think that deficit will actually persist for a few years - we just have fewer old people now than we would have.

(I'm assuming no winter surge here - that's not a sure thing of course. But I do think if there are NPIs still in place we could see continued lower than normal flu mortality for the end of this year as well. Hopefully we get no surge and we have NPIs in place and we also have no flu.)
 

madodel

X at the end of a rainbow
Apr 6, 2015
2,431
9,741
Poconos, NE Pennsylvania, United States
An interesting analysis of the breakdown of causes of death in 2020, and how many might have been uncounted COVID (or due to lack of medical attention and treatment due to COVID). We had an 18% (!!!) higher number of deaths (so far; the 2020 data isn't final) in 2020 than in 2019. 520k excess deaths vs. 380k COVID deaths - so 140k extra non-C19 deaths vs 2019!

It's a decent argument, correlating the non-COVID excess deaths by cause vs. the COVID deaths...and showing the most likely suspects (diabetes, Alzheimers, cardiac, stroke, kidney disease) track very well.

He also has an addendum providing an estimate of the dreaded "lockdown deaths." Seems like it could be on the order of 20-30k excess unnatural deaths (but obviously some of that could be trauma of losing loved ones, stress of dealing with the pandemic independent of lockdown, driving too fast, etc.). But undoubtedly there are some deaths that could be classified as lockdown (loss of job, etc.) deaths. I'm going to go out on a limb and say it seems like the "lockdown" (whatever that means) was the right call (assuming reducing mortality was the goal), though...


In the replies there's also another dataset linked to, looking at the data a different way. As you might expect, the misclassified deaths were largely in the first two surges. Deaths appeared to be much better classified in the surge that ended 2020.
This is a rehash of discussion from a year ago. My mother died in a nursing home in north Jersey in March 2020. Death Certificate says COD was AHD, Alzheimers and anemia. No mention of COVID because in March of 2020 no one could get a COVID test unless they were in a hospital but who knows. She could barely breathe, was already SOB and was on O2 so if she got COVID it probably would have killed her quickly. The nursing homes had all stopped visitation a couple weeks prior so I have no idea how she was doing. Locally our County Coroner had several at home deaths and nursing home pneumonia deaths which again could not be tested. He treated all as potential COVID and was desperate back then to find enough PPE for his staff to do their job. There had to be quite a few such unidentified COVID deaths early on.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
9,249
11,051
San Diego
This is a rehash of discussion from a year ago
Yes, but the numbers involved are now quantified, and the deaths can also be categorized by cause, since the 2020 data is mostly complete now. Previously, incomplete reporting meant a lot of really incorrect conclusions were drawn. And it was hard to know the exact breakdown of what type of deaths were being miscategorized (though it was relatively easily guessed from anecdotal evidence, etc.).

But it does seem that what reasonable people expected had happened, probably happened.

For example, this potentially means something like 650k-700k people in this country have died of COVID so far. How many have been infected? Maybe 35% of the country (we don’t know exactly - maybe this is high)?
 
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uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
281
1,027
San Jose, CA
According the Mrs. Uujjj, the non-COVID emergency patients in February (as the wave was waning) were definitely sicker than in a typical February. But there were fewer of them. So she does think some of them deferred seeing a physician and others who might have gone to the emergency room in normal times for less serious issues were avoiding it this time around.
 

cwerdna

Active Member
Jul 11, 2012
3,388
2,230
SF Bay Area, CA
Besides CSUB that I mentioned, How to schedule your COVID-19 vaccine | UC Davis Health got updated today and would be more convenient for Bay Area people than Bakersfield:
Re: UC Davis, there are many reports that if you don't have an account w/them, you will see no appointments. I confirmed that last night and this morning.

And, the reports are that if you do, you will see appointments. That's according to many reports + a co-worker who got an appointment yesterday and went there today for shots.

Also, for those in So Cal who were going to Cal State LA Briefly Opens Up COVID Vaccines To Anyone Over 18, Then Pulls Back, besides that news report, there have been numerous reports on FB groups and my work that some folks got shots w/no appointment and others got turned away, presumably due to huge demand. Cal State Bakersfield still seems like the best bet for LA folks who aren't eligible yet and want a vaccine sooner.
 
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uujjj2

Member
Aug 11, 2020
281
1,027
San Jose, CA
Mrs. Uujjj's emergency department had at least 8 staff get COVID over the course of the pandemic. At least 3 of them got quite sick, with one male nurse missing work for months, another staff member winding up in the hospital, and a third spending time in the ICU. Among the general population only ~10% of COVID cases are severe, but among the emergency staff it was more like 30% severe.
 

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