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Coronavirus

willow_hiller

Active Member
Apr 3, 2019
3,288
17,111
Maryland
I don’t know if it was mentioned earlier but I think these tests could be used in conjunction with a geotagged app that tags if you are infected or not. That way if infected then you pop up as a red dot on the app. If not infected you’re a green dot.

I think Google could leverage its location data to great effect. Forget about single dots, every Google Maps user has a "Timeline" of locations. It took the Maryland Department of Health 2 days to question our first COVID-19 patients about the locations they visited and warn the public, Google could do that in seconds with greater accuracy than human recollection:

Screenshot_20200314-135100.png
 

KSilver2000

Active Member
Dec 23, 2017
1,368
2,438
CA
I’m curious to know who told who in the WH about what Google, more accurately Alphabet’s Verily arm, is working on and when.
It’s like the telephone game where information gets out of hand fast. But, then again, the guy has a reputation to just make everything sound grandiose if it’ll benefit him.
 
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pandam3

Member
Apr 23, 2018
193
160
Orange County
Geotagging individuals would have the civil
Liberty folks screaming from the rooftops. I doubt we will see that either here or in Europe.

Would need to decide what’s a more important freedom. I’d like my freedom to go to my favorite restaurant or watch a play or go to an amusement park and be virus free or at least minimized.

besides I don’t think we need to worry about civil liberty preppers... they are already expecting rights to be taken away from this.

What Are the Civil Liberties that You Will Lose When Corona Virus Comes to Our Country? - Ask a Prepper

they’ll be hunkered down with supplies that can last years and they’ll have their 2nd amendment rights to protect it.
 
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GaryW

Member
Supporting Member
This has been addressed 3 times in this thread already. The portion of the CDC budget responsible for outbreaks has been relatively constant, both during the Obama and Trump administrations. It's the "Global Health Security" line item on the CDC budget (much of what the CDC does is actually not directly related to outbreaks like this one).

View attachment 521737

The full report is here: The U.S. Government and Global Health

One line in the report:

  • Total U.S. global health funding was $11 billion in FY 2019, up from $5.4 billion in FY 2006; the current Administration, however, has proposed significantly reducing global health funding for FY 2020.


Here is another chart from the same report:

215BEF3A-2A07-4758-A74C-089F953EE1F4.png
 

avoigt

Active Member
Sep 5, 2017
2,844
40,368
Germany
Correct, this is what is happening here, Italy... very difficult to shut down anything else and futher stop people mobility... and is going surprisingly well, no major problems. Apart the bill we're going to pay, impossible to evalute now.....

But this is because we are a small country as territory and nr. of people. With strong free medical assistance, welfare and payed sick leave, as this emergency is considered. Same thing should develop in US? It will socially be very very different... and worrying i guess...

Cheers from the isolation. Air quality magnificent anyway :)

You Italian guys really have figured out that Quarantine thing.

Listen in and turn the sound on: John Nichols on Twitter
 

ohmman

Plaid-ish Moderator
Feb 13, 2014
10,270
18,959
North Bay, CA
Would need to decide what’s a more important freedom. I’d like my freedom to go to my favorite restaurant or watch a play or go to an amusement park and be virus free or at least minimized.

besides I don’t think we need to worry about civil liberty preppers... they are already expecting rights to be taken away from this.

What Are the Civil Liberties that You Will Lose When Corona Virus Comes to Our Country? - Ask a Prepper

they’ll be hunkered down with supplies that can last years and they’ll have their 2nd amendment rights to protect it.
People who care about civil liberties aren't just preppers.

There are ways to create statistically valid maps with geotagging that don't actually give away personal information. The struggle is to introduce enough noise (gaussian or otherwise) to anonymize the data, but not change the statistical validity of the data set, OR allow inference algorithms to remove the noise and get to the actual data. I messed around with that stuff years ago but have mostly forgotten it. I just know it's an area of study and practice.
 

bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,726
20,989
San Diego, CA
The full report is here: The U.S. Government and Global Health

One line in the report:

  • Total U.S. global health funding was $11 billion in FY 2019, up from $5.4 billion in FY 2006; the current Administration, however, has proposed significantly reducing global health funding for FY 2020.


Here is another chart from the same report:

View attachment 521777

The last graph on that is a bit misleading - the 2020 budget hasn't been approved or negotiated with congress. That is just the "requested" portion. The actual funding is still higher, at 2019 levels, because all we have done is pass continuing resolutions.
 

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
104,591
Iceland
Have we officially determined that there is a severe strain and a mild strain of Coronavirus? Can anyone speak with confidence on that?

There's countless strains, and lots of speculation (some of it peer reviewed) about there being a couple large groups, but as for specific "strong strain" / "weak strain", no, we don't have that. More to the point, if we actually had an isolated, consistently very mild strain, that could be used as a vaccine. That is after all how vaccines started, with the observation that people who got (mild) cowpox tended to be immune to (severe) smallpox.

He's way too cocky & the optics wouldn't look good (& we all know it's about the Trump brand to his base) if he did get tested while thousands can't get tested.

I strongly suspect that they have him preemptively on any of the off-label antiviral treatments that have shown promise against COVID-19 and whose side effects are not particularly concerning.

Same thing here in my very international corner of not-so-reflected-and-rational Switzerland this afternoon [I purposefully went later to avoid the crowds]. No sugar. No flour. No fresh veggies!! I asked - all been bought today. Don't even mention toilet paper, that's been rare for a while now.

No problems in Iceland. Was just at the grocery store today; more people than usual, but not a swarm of them. Every shelf was fully stocked. Nobody was hoarding. Actually, it probably looked like I was a hoarding prepper, because I'd been putting off shopping for quite a while, so had to buy proportionally a lot to restock - I didn't see a single other person with nearly as much food in their cart as I had. Also, I was in a mask ;)

There was an article I read earlier on DV that stated that in general, shortages are not expected in Iceland due to existing stockpiles.

Sadly, mortality has shot up in Lombardy

Let's say it all together: "confirmed positive cases" != "total cases". Dividing the number of "confirmed or suspected cases" by "number of confirmed or suspected fatalities" yields an utterly meaningless figure, and people should stop doing it.

That doesn't mean that the death rate isn't unusually high in Lombardy; I also wouldn't be surprised if it is. It just means that you can't calculate it that way. It yields zero informative value.

To be clear, the article notes only one such death.

Although most patients who retest positive do not display clinical symptoms, some have developed fevers and other signs of the virus. One such patient, a 36-year-old man, died in Wuhan on March 2, five days after being declared recovered.

This. People need to stop taking anecdotes and treating them as if they're the general case.

There will always be both false positives and false negatives in a pandemic. There will also always be cases of remissions, regardless of the nature of the disease. The existence of such things has no impact on what's normal. "What's normal" is that most people get "the flu", get better, and go on with their lives. An unfortunate minority - far higher than with a typical seasonal influenza, most commonly the old and/or sick - get pneumonia, and of them, it's sometimes severe enough to be fatal or cause permanent damage. The general characteristics of the disease are perfectly familiar to us all. What's not usual is the fact that we have zero herd immunity, zero vaccines, zero approved antivirals, and it's a more severe strain than a typical flu, at least for the elderly and sick (and to a lesser extent the middle-aged).
 

ev-enthusiast

Active Member
Sep 10, 2013
1,838
2,757
Europe (Germany)
The Italian sports car manufacturer Ferrari, on the other hand, closes its two plants for two weeks because of the corona virus outbreak. The company had initially tried to keep the factories running, but now "the first serious problems in the supply chain" prevented further production, Ferrari said in a statement on Saturday.
 
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Cosmacelf

Well-Known Member
Mar 6, 2013
8,862
22,785
San Diego
The Italian sports car manufacturer Ferrari, on the other hand, closes its two plants for two weeks because of the corona virus outbreak. The company had initially tried to keep the factories running, but now "the first serious problems in the supply chain" prevented further production, Ferrari said in a statement on Saturday.

I suspect the MOST serious problem in their supply chain is that no one is buying their cars right now. Auto sales crash during periods like this.

Which is why Tesla, of all car companies, is sitting pretty. They have a huge backlog of Model Y sales to deliver in the US, as well as Model 3 in China.
 
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SMAlset

Well-Known Member
Mar 4, 2017
9,251
10,124
SF Bay Area
From the little I’ve read/seen in news I have the understanding that Italy has an aging population; and the reason even some towns are reaching out to foreigners to move there and buy property very inexpensively. This all happening over the last few years. Not having a young work force having an impact on the economy and supporting retirees as they age. If that’s all true then easy to see why mortality rates could be much higher in countries with a large aging population with c19.
 
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bkp_duke

Well-Known Member
May 15, 2016
5,726
20,989
San Diego, CA
From the little I’ve read/seen in news I have the understanding that Italy has an aging population; and the reason even some towns are reaching out to foreigners to move there and buy property very inexpensively. This all happening over the last few years. Not having a young work force having an impact on the economy and supporting retirees as they age. If that’s all true then easy to see why mortality rates could be much higher in countries with a large aging population with c19.

Italy's high mortality rate from COVID-19 is due to 3 factors (in no particular order):
1) high percentage of the population 65 and older
2) relatively low number of hospital beds per capita
3) delayed response on putting social distancing practices into place

Basically, the perfect storm.
 

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