Coronavirus

[NicoV]

Brussels hospital does quick diagnostic with CT scan of the lungs to detect Corona, finds 10% of new patients infected: Privacy settings

 

[bkp_duke]

But the RNA test wouldn't catch people who had already been infected and recovered, right?

Correct. The RNA test only detects viral shedding (i.e. active infection).

 

[Daniel in SD]

Agreed. China and South Korea being the best examples so far of disciplined, targeted actions. Canada also is doing well, especially if you exclude one particular Nursing home which skews the numbers.

But Canada also does quite well with the seasonal flu. And as noted in my first post on this thread today, when targeted action is taken, both seasonal and Covid 19 seem to have about the same progression/results. Deaths in Canada are actually greater for seasonal flu for the current year.

It's also very likely that it is not contained in Canada as the number of cases appears to be growing exponentially. Has Canada taken any measures to slow the spread?

 

[bkp_duke]

everyone I know that tried to start a small business, failed. its mostly going to fail.

I know so few people who can AFFORD to quit their day job and take that kind of risk. in fact, I tried once, myself (long story, not going into it here, lol).

I worked 5 years at night on my business while actively being a physician. I didn't take a check for the first 7 years.

It can be done, without quitting your day job, but it will require tenacity and sacrifice.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Correct. The RNA test only detects viral shedding (i.e. active infection).

I'd just like to see the theory that everyone already has it debunked. Actually I'd rather see it proven right but you can't always get what you want.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

when targeted action is taken, both seasonal and Covid 19 seem to have about the same progression/results. Deaths in Canada are actually greater for seasonal flu for the current year.

I hope it remains that way in Canada! In the United States, by the end of next week, it looks like we will likely exceed or match the number of flu deaths in the United States this year, with a number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at just 2-3% of the flu infections we have had!

We'll be at about 10,000 deaths next Wednesday, and should easily exceed 20,0000 deaths by the following Wednesday.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

This stimulus bill saga sure is wild. I'm not surprised to see our politicians fighting over everything but they are going to get a shock when they are still busy fighting over dumb pork barrel appropriations while unemployment instantly hits 2 million new claims tomorrow.

 

[SageBrush]

At this point there will be very few people in rural areas who had it and got over it.

That was my thought

 

[SageBrush]

But the RNA test wouldn't catch people who had already been infected and recovered, right?

Right

 

[linux-works]

I worked 5 years at night on my business while actively being a physician. I didn't take a check for the first 7 years.

It can be done, without quitting your day job, but it will require tenacity and sacrifice.

would I be correct in guessing that, being a doctor for a while, you had a decent amount of savings (maybe even property as a landlord) to fall back on?

do you think you could pull that same success off, if you had essentially no savings and was living paycheck to paycheck?

suppose you were RIFd (reduction in force; nice words for 'mass cost-savings layoff') - and you were not working for an extended period of time. how do you find capital to start a business?

good for you, that you did what you did; but again, you are in the percent of a percent that actually succeeds.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Deaths in Canada are actually greater for seasonal flu for the current year.

I hope it remains that way in Canada!

Just took a closer look at the Canadian data. Looks like you may easily have enough deaths to rival your 500-1500 deaths from flu this past season. Check back in two weeks - I'd expect you'll have 500-1000 deaths from COVID-19!

Hopefully you guys locked down a couple weeks ago (have not been paying attention) - if you guys have been sheltering in place for more than a week, this estimate will end up being pessimistic.

 

[deonb]

We'll be at about 10,000 deaths next Wednesday, and should easily exceed 20,0000 deaths by the following Wednesday.

I think the strong action that New York has taken is going to cause a bit of a stall in the death rate two weeks from now.

The 20'000 will come from Florida which seems intent on doing a Leeroy Jenkins into this thing.

 

[CanadaEV]

I hope it remains that way in Canada! In the United States, by the end of next week, it looks like we will likely exceed or match the number of flu deaths in the United States this year, with a number of SARS-CoV-2 infections at just 2-3% of the flu infections we have had!

We'll be at about 10,000 deaths next Wednesday, and should easily exceed 20,0000 deaths by the following Wednesday.

Yes, so many people are struggling with the variables on the whole issue.

On the one hand it seems obvious that a determined and truly concerted effort, as in China and South Korea, (and perhaps in Canada, if it is consistently maintained), such effort can actually halt the virus.

On the other hand, so many variations come into play. Even the political/ideological factors can make all the difference, and can become self-fulfilling prophecies by the actions each of them favour.

In the end, we are dealing with something completely new. Comparisons to past similar occurrences seem obvious, but may be counter-productive.

 

[bkp_duke]

would I be correct in guessing that, being a doctor for a while, you had a decent amount of savings (maybe even property as a landlord) to fall back on?

do you think you could pull that same success off, if you had essentially no savings and was living paycheck to paycheck?

suppose you were RIFd (reduction in force; nice words for 'mass cost-savings layoff') - and you were not working for an extended period of time. how do you find capital to start a business?

good for you, that you did what you did; but again, you are in the percent of a percent that actually succeeds.

No, not really. I built my business during medical school and residency. Granted, I was on a scholarship at the time, but I didn't have much of any revenue stream except a spouse (that makes a lot less than a physician and covered our rent).

Anyone that knows me, knows that I love everyday math problems. So I worked the variables as much as I could in my favor to support my business idea:
- nearly no eating out except for birthdays and anniversaries
- no new cars
- lived in a cheaper part of the city than what I would have preferred

Basically, minimized expenses, and every spare dollar I could find was put into growing the business.

I'm not saying it is easy. I was certainly not given a silver spoon (my parents were middle-class, didn't support my idea and wanted me to keep on being a Dr). All grit.

Even with the above, it's absolutely possible (likely?) that failure is the outcome. But given the chance, I would do it again.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The 20'000 will come from Florida which seems intent on doing a Leeroy Jenkins into this thing.

Don't forget New Orleans & Louisiana. Looks grim.

 

[renim]

The problem is we don't know for sure how deadly it is. The problem is that it appears for about 80% of the population is isn't deadly, but for another 20% it can be very serious. Maybe that percentage is 90/10, but to try to go back to normal now would be to do an uncontrolled experiment on the human race. That's insanely reckless.

FWIW
The cruise ships provide a great proxy for an otherwise unethical experiment. Colocate a sample population, infect and watch the outcomes.

Considering the age demographics of cruisers, the IFR on ocean liners seem better than many hospitals.

'Adjusting for delay from confirmation-to-death, we estimated case and infection fatality ratios (CFR, IFR) for COVID-19 on the Diamond Princess ship as 2.3%(0.75%-5.3%) and 1.2% (0.38-2.7%)'

My unscientific take is that the +ve of stress relief and fresh salty air is comparable to -ve of limited facilities/medical expertise onboard a ship.

Hmmm speleotherapy. Speleotherapy – modern bio-medical perspectives

 

[MXLRplus]

everyone I know that tried to start a small business, failed. its mostly going to fail.

I know so few people who can AFFORD to quit their day job and take that kind of risk. in fact, I tried once, myself (long story, not going into it here, lol).

When you look back at your life, it's not the failures you will regret the most. It will be the risks you didn't take.

 

[CanadaEV]

Just took a closer look at the Canadian data. Looks like you may easily have enough deaths to rival your 500-1500 deaths from flu this past season. Check back in two weeks - I'd expect you'll have 500-1000 deaths from COVID-19!

Hopefully you guys locked down a couple weeks ago (have not been paying attention) - if you guys have been sheltering in place for more than a week, this estimate will end up being pessimistic.

In Canadian society, perhaps a little less than in the States, we nonetheless need time to adjust to severe measures. We value our freedoms as others do. So it takes time.

However, this may be where a public health care system has a real advantage. In general Canadians value and trust the system. And, it is universal. There is no access barrier. Perhaps this will allow the national response to be more cohesive.

Thanks for the good wishes, and yes, I believe the lockdown has become quite effective for a week or ten days so far.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

we are dealing with something completely new

Definitely not new. Viruses with pandemic potential are quite common.

And definitely it was very predictable that without immediate action it would turn into the current disaster. I became extremely worried about it right after we banned travel from China in late January, because I realized that that meant that it was guaranteed to already be all over the United States and that shutdowns would be required. And I'm not even an epidemiologist, nor do I have access to super secret information!

As we continued through February in complete denial, I went into full freakout mode. And I generally don't freak out about anything. You should ask people who know me.

Meanwhile, as I type, Trump is talking about being very strong on borders. As though that matters. At all. It is basically completely irrelevant. Viruses are not stopped by borders or travel restrictions. They must be addressed aggressively from within - before there is any evidence there is a problem. You have to assume they are there and seek and destroy.

 

[winfield100]

I think the strong action that New York has taken is going to cause a bit of a stall in the death rate two weeks from now.

The 20'000 will come from Florida which seems intent on doing a Leeroy Jenkins into this thing.

I suspect western and southwestern Florida May fare better than Miami and Atlantic side of state
1,682 with 23 deaths so far
From about 5 days ago
City officials have voted to shut down Clearwater Beach for two weeks

• Sarasota and Manatee counties will close all public beaches
  
• Miami-Dade County Mayor Carlos Gimenez says all public beaches will close
  
• The City of Naples has closed all public beaches
  
• The City of Tampa has voted to shut down its beaches
  
• Lee County in Southwest Florida will close county-owned beaches
  
• The Town of Fort Myers Beach is closing all public parking, public beach access points, and commercial activity
  
• Also Sanibel and Captiva in Lee county
• Above is Basically from Tampa south to Naples, plus Orlando just did a “stay home’
• 
  Florida international airport canceled 72 flights (between Ft Myers and Naples on west coast)
• (I see very few going overhead last week)
• If only the _govenor_ of the state DeSantis would .....