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Coronavirus

Discussion in 'Off Topic' started by Wenche, Jan 27, 2020.

  1. elasalle

    elasalle driVIN(188xx) it !!

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    • Informative x 1
  2. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Hubei is in (2147). The downward trend continues.

    upload_2020-2-8_23-25-57.png

    upload_2020-2-8_23-26-26.png

    Only other change since the last graphs was +7 to Other_Global (7 new cases in Singapore).
     
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  3. EVNow

    EVNow Well-Known Member

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    Iraq war. Various South American coups. Coup in Iran. etc etc.
     
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  4. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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    If one studies war, lying is essential. I suppose China can decide it is at war with its people and or the rest of the world.
     
  5. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Non-Hubei data should be by and large in for the day; will update if there's any meaningful changes.

    upload_2020-2-9_19-22-27.png

    upload_2020-2-9_19-23-3.png
     
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  6. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Hubei data in. Also, 10 new international cases since the last graphs (7 Hong Kong, 3 Singapore).

    upload_2020-2-9_22-29-4.png

    upload_2020-2-9_22-29-52.png
     
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  7. Wenche

    Wenche Member

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    #67 Wenche, Feb 9, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2020
  8. Yuri_G

    Yuri_G Member

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    I think that's how the graph has always displayed the current day's data. The new cases are still increasing, no signs of slowing yet.
     
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  9. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    That is not accurate. The spread rate is decreasing. Since this is a car forum, it is analogous to a slowing acceleration. The foot is coming off the go pedal.
     
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  10. jerry33

    jerry33 (S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20

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    The problem with that graph is that it doesn't do area by area, which is the important part. See the graphs posted by Karen Rei a few posts up.
     
  11. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    The way they present the information in general is extremely unhelpful :Þ It was my disappointment with that site that led to me writing the graphing scripts I did. Apparently some other people I've run into nearly ended up doing so themselves for the same reason.
     
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  12. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Well, this is odd... this time we got Hubei before the rest of China (2097 cases in Hubei). A fairly big international spike, but almost all on the cruise ship (65 new cases).

    upload_2020-2-10_22-23-58.png

    upload_2020-2-10_22-24-32.png
     
    • Informative x 1
  13. dkemme

    dkemme Supporting Member

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  14. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #74 KarenRei, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
    This is fake news.

    Report of Asymptomatic Transmission of 2019-nCoV Inaccurate

    ---
    According to the news report, the authors who published their findings of asymptomatic transmission in the New England Journal of Medicine (NEJM) last week gathered their evidence from interviews with other patients who had been in contact with her. But when government health officials in Germany spoke to the woman herself, she reported having felt sick at the time the transmission occurred.

    “I feel bad about how this went, but I don’t think anybody is at fault here,” coauthor Christian Drosten, a virologist at the Charité University Hospital in Berlin, tells Science. “Apparently the woman could not be reached at first and people felt this had to be communicated quickly.”

    ---

    WHO has discussed asymptomatic transmission before.

    https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200201-sitrep-12-ncov.pdf?sfvrsn=273c5d35_2

    ---
    HIGHLIGHTS • The main driver of transmission, based on currently available data, is symptomatic cases. WHO is aware of possible transmission of 2019-nCoV from infected people before they developed symptoms. Detailed exposure histories are being taken to better understand the pre-clinical phase of infection and how transmission may have occurred in these few instances. Asymptomatic infection may be rare, and transmission from an asymptomatic person is very rare with other coronaviruses, as we have seen with Middle East Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus. Thus, transmission from asymptomatic cases is likely not a major driver of transmission. Persons who are symptomatic will spread the virus more readily through coughing and sneezing.
    ---

    Note that even if humans manage to artificially select for a mild strain of the virus by stamping out symptomatic/major cases but not asymptomatic/minor cases of the disease, that's not exactly a bad thing. Eradication is of course the goal, but reducing the disease to yet another seasonal flu to add to our seasonal flu vaccines isn't exactly a bad thing either.
     
  15. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    Yep

    Extremely unlikely. The single example I can think of that kinda sorta fits the bill is synthetic polio vaccination
     
  16. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Artificial selection happens to diseases all the time; its the reason why most seasonal colds and flus are mild. People with mild cases go to work / school / shopping where they can infect other people; people with severe cases stay home.

    Spanish Flu was the opposite. Occurring during WWI, people with mild cases stayed in their trenches, but people with severe cased were loaded together onto trains and shipped to overcrowded, poorly sanitized hospitals on the outskirts of cities where they could spread.

    We humans intentionally or unintentionally select strains of our diseases. Usually, but not always, for mild ones.
     
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  17. SageBrush

    SageBrush REJECT Fascism

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    No, the overwhelming reason is past exposure to similar strains leading to partial immunity.
     
  18. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    Evolution from a virus's view
     
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  19. KarenRei

    KarenRei ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ

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    #79 KarenRei, Feb 11, 2020
    Last edited: Feb 11, 2020
    So, they seem to have stopped giving out province-level data apart from Hubei, just totals. I've correspondingly added a "Non-Hubei China" line to the graph, and am dropping the breakdown graphs.

    Only 1638 Hubei cases today. I expect the international total to grow with new cruise ship cases.... though I'm honestly surprised that we haven't seen a big batch out of Japan because of that already today - just two cases out of Japan so far today.

    upload_2020-2-11_22-52-1.png
     
    • Informative x 7
  20. DanCar

    DanCar Active Member

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