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Coronavirus

Daniel in SD

Well-Known Member
Jan 25, 2018
6,574
9,336
San Diego
I haven't heard "herd" defined as 100% of the population. It gets thrown around loosely but I haven't heard 100%. You don't need 100% to gain benefit.
The herd is an entire population. How fast a virus spreads is a function of what percentage of the herd is immune. It sounds like you think that's what's slowing the spread in NYC?
 

dqd88

Member
Sep 19, 2018
908
2,598
Sacramento, CA
The herd is an entire population. How fast a virus spreads is a function of what percentage of the herd is immune. It sounds like you think that's what's slowing the spread in NYC?
The slowing of the spread is due to a variety of factors. Social distancing is one. And then the fact that the virus has spread to a degree where there's not many new to infect given the current situation.
We need to do antibody testing to determine the extent of herd immunity.
 

LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Mar 6, 2019
2,028
10,088
Oahu, Hawaii
I'm not going to go and calculate confidence intervals, but we're at 1 death with 500 sailors infected, and not all the sailors have recovered yet (though another death might be slightly unexpected). So my estimate of 5-15 deaths assuming the entire crew of ~5000 was infected doesn't look too unreasonable, unfortunately. It's a terrible disease.

No, the number of infected Sailors is 585, which a less than .2% chance of death fits with the current lost shipmate. Further, the Sailor was in his 40's according to the article, so is in the higher .4% bracket.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
10,050
12,109
San Diego

Trevor Bedford said:
I started following what's now referred to as "novel coronavirus (nCoV)" on Jan 6 when I started to notice reports of a cluster of viral pneumonia of unknown origin in Wuhan, China. Just 4 days later on Jan 10, a first genome was released on Virological.org only to be followed by five more the following day via GISAID.org. From very early on, it was clear that the nCoV genomes lacked the expected genetic diversity that would occur with repeated zoonotic events from a diverse animal reservoir. The simplest parsimonious explanation for this observation was that there was a single zoonotic spillover event into the human population in Wuhan between mid-Nov and mid-Dec and sustained human-to-human transmission from this point. However, at first I struggled to reconcile this lack of genetic diversity with WHO reports of "limited human-to-human" transmission. The conclusion of sustained human-to-human spread became difficult to ignore on Jan 17 when nCoV genomes from the two Thai travel cases that reported no market exposure showed the same limited genetic diversity. This genomic data represented one of the first and strongest indications of sustained epidemic spread. As this became clear to me, I spent the week of Jan 20 alerting every public health official I know.

https://bedford.io/blog/genomic-epi-for-ncov-response/

Here's the known phylogeny, relating bats and SARS (the original) to SARS-CoV-2:

auspice

Here are Trevor's comments on that:

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

Notably, of known coronaviruses, the current coronavirus and the known bat virus sequence (bat/Yunnan/RaTG13/2013) had a common ancestor 25-65 years ago.

Currently from what I understand, the intermediate host for those 25-65 years is unknown. Presumably it was bat for a while, but whether it went from bat directly to humans I'm not sure they know. I can't read the WSJ article so not sure what claims it makes.
 

AlanSubie4Life

Efficiency Obsessed Member
Oct 22, 2018
10,050
12,109
San Diego
No, the number of infected Sailors is 585, which a less than .2% chance of death fits with the current lost shipmate. Further, the Sailor was in his 40's according to the article, so is in the higher .4% bracket.

Obviously I was using approximate numbers. My point is that 5 deaths for 5000 infections on the ship would not be unexpected (my original claim). As I mentioned in my prior posts on this, not all the sailors on the ship are young! I'm not surprised to hear that the sailor was in his 40s. I'm in my 40's too, which is why I like to freak out about COVID-19.

In a typical population, 5000 infections would result in about 50 deaths, so it's not really a stretch at all to think that the generally younger and healthy ship population would "sail through" with "just" 5-15 deaths.

Which is what the captain was concerned about originally. Based on the reaction & behavior of the (former) Navy Secretary, it's not clear at all that the Secretary's statement describing his reasons for the firing (the Captain's superior was allegedly just down the hallway on the carrier, not going through the chain of command, etc.), has any merit.
 
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ptsagcy

Member
Nov 4, 2013
528
176
NJ

dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,129
5,138
FL
Well, I have to say that my thoughts about what is the right thing to do are not very evolved.
At heart, I like to think of myself as an environmentalist, and I do believe in a "leave nature alone" philosophy, but humanity is at ongoing risk of more problems related to "overpopulation", and perhaps we are past the point of going back to trying to live in harmony with nature, and we are forced to take scientifically calculated extreme actions out of needs for self preservation.

From what I have read, these particular bat populations are a threat to us. We have extincted many species, some were viewed as threats, some as food, some as sport, some due to us being careless. Those are not coming back. Maybe we should consider if getting rid of these particular types of bats would be beneficial to mankind...? Or maybe this is a natural control in place to keep our population in check? I don't know. I don't have any answers. I am just pondering things from my own perspective.

Okay. Let's do a thought experiment. . . . . which is the greater Danger, the threat that viruses can jump from bats to us or the threat that we pose to bats by virtue of deforestation, habitat destruction, pollution, and intrusion into their environments in a variety of ways? I'd wager that whatever threat bat viruses represent to us we represent a far greater danger to bats and for that matter most mammals than the reverse. And if we would stay out of their environment and respect it the bats could have their own niche in the ecosystem which we would leave alone and therefore we would not be exposing ourselves to their pathogens.
 

RandomJohnny

Member
Aug 2, 2017
211
68
Earth
So . . . some of these pandemics represent at least in some sense our contempt for nature coming back to bite us. One of our worse and most grandiose delusions emerging from our technological Powers is that somehow we are more powerful than nature or as the Bible says "God gave us dominion" over other life-forms. Total crap. We have not learned the fundamental lessons of ecology which is about the interdependence between all forms of life. We think somehow that our technology allows us to escape from that foundational 'ground' principle. It does not.

This is well said, however, these same delusions also apply to western medicine and the human body. There is a level of indoctrination in western medicine (which is quite obvious in this thread) that needs to be addressed. There are some pretty logical reasons to be skeptical of your "science" which is more often than not passed off as "fact". The more this skepticism is censored, ignored, and/or belittled the stronger it gets. This is what undermines public health.
 
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deonb

Active Member
Mar 4, 2013
4,057
4,210
Redmond, WA
Couldn't resist the cheap shot, could you? Let's keep the political horse---t off this site. Your problem is you believe CNN. Check the facts before you post stupid stuff like this.

Which part is wrong? Is Stanley Chera in fact still alive? Did he die of something other than Coronavirus? Or maybe he was not a real estate mogul? Or not a friend of Trump? Not a donor maybe?

Please, help us poor uneducated people out. What exactly did CNN lie about here?
 

dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,129
5,138
FL
This is well said, however, these same delusions also apply to western medicine and the human body. There is a level of indoctrination in western medicine (which is quite obvious in this thread) that needs to be addressed. There are some pretty logical reasons to be skeptical of your "science" which is more often than not passed off as "fact". The more this skepticism is censored, ignored, and/or belittled the stronger it gets. This is what undermines public health.

There is much in Western medicine at least in terms of some of its emphases that I'm not comfortable with either, but other than a general dismissal of the whole of it is there a specific concern that you have because otherwise I'm not sure what you're saying? What specifically is the indoctrination that you see?

As for one of the better parts of Western medicine, namely the need to establish through controlled trials what works and what doesn't, I would see that is about the only way to weed out our popular delusions (or more properly just wishful thinking) from scientific facts.
 
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TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,839
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Okay. Let's do a thought experiment. . . . . which is the greater Danger, the threat that viruses can jump from bats to us or the threat that we pose to bats by virtue of deforestation, habitat destruction, pollution, and intrusion into their environments in a variety of ways? I'd wager that whatever threat bat viruses represent to us we represent a far greater danger to bats and for that matter most mammals than the reverse. And if we would stay out of their environment and respect it the bats could have their own niche in the ecosystem which we would leave alone and therefore we would not be exposing ourselves to their pathogens.

Well, being a human, I do have a tendency to value human lives more than bat lives...
I am sure if I were a bat, I would have a very different perspective on all this...

But perhaps more to your point, if we intentionally wiped out all those bats, what unintended consequences might occur? We might cause an insect plague, or some other side effect that we didn't anticipate.
Maybe they are helping keep the immune system of the asymptomatic populace working better?

If I was younger and healthier, I would also have a different perspective on this.
 
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LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Mar 6, 2019
2,028
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Oahu, Hawaii
Obviously I was using approximate numbers. My point is that 5 deaths for 5000 infections on the ship would not be unexpected (my original claim). As I mentioned in my prior posts on this, not all the sailors on the ship are young! I'm not surprised to hear that the sailor was in his 40s. I'm in my 40's too, which is why I like to freak out about COVID-19.

In a typical population, 5000 infections would result in about 50 deaths, so it's not really a stretch at all to think that the generally younger and healthy ship population would "sail through" with "just" 5-15 deaths.

Which is what the captain was concerned about originally. Based on the reaction & behavior of the (former) Navy Secretary, it's not clear at all that the Secretary's statement describing his reasons for the firing (the Captain's superior was allegedly just down the hallway on the carrier, not going through the chain of command, etc.), has any merit.

I personally feel that a much larger portion of the sailors have/had the disease than they've been able to discover, which makes this singular death so far even a smaller percentage. I also think this is the case with the general population, as evidenced by tests done in Germany discussed a bit back. That the current positive of 12%, roughly, is a lowball estimate. They hit port on the 5th of March, in the petri dish that is the ship, and didn't have the first confirmed case until about the 24th. That's 19 days where the were previously wondering the ship, close quarters, high stress. As the average incubation period is 2-14 days, that leads a strong indication that more than those 3 initial Sailors were infected. Maybe the 3 Sailors are the more "at risk" of the populous on the ship, as they're the first to actually show symptoms enough to report it to medical. The crew was "monitored" after the port visit, but I don't think medical was out checking temps like the Chinese has been, and likely was just doing an extra screening if a Sailor came down to sickcall complaining of any of the symptons. It's a shame we don't test for antibodies as standard, and thus would be able to identify this number better.

And I never said no Sailor would die, but I do think the numbers are going to remain very, very low. I'm actually more surprised that there was a death at all with the low number of "positives," but with the theory that more were infected than currently known, it fits better.
 

TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,839
8,871
By the way, another story on bat borne viruses in China:
New Research: Bats Harbor Hundreds Of Coronaviruses, And Spillovers Aren't Rare
New Research: Bats Harbor Hundreds Of Coronaviruses, And Spillovers Aren't Rare
...Scientists had thought spillovers were rare — that bat coronaviruses weren't generally capable of infecting humans, so it took complicated steps.
Step one: A bat coronavirus would have to infect some animal species that had closer contact with people than bats do. Step two: While in that other animal's body, the virus would need to pick up new genetic code.
But the sampling project found that those steps are not needed, says Olival.
"What we showed was that SARS-related viruses in these bat populations have the potential to go directly into human cells and do not need that extra mutational step [of] infecting another host."
In other words, the path to sparking new outbreaks is potentially much more direct.
For example, one of the coronaviruses that the researchers found was a very close genetic match for the SARS virus. So they put it in a petri dish with human cells. The virus succeeded in infecting the cells...

( I hope I don't get criticized for posting it because some people think that NPR is somehow politically biased in their reporting of this. )
 
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JRP3

Hyperactive Member
Aug 20, 2007
20,297
46,808
Central New York
Maybe we should consider if getting rid of these particular types of bats would be beneficial to mankind...? Or maybe this is a natural control in place to keep our population in check?
Or people could stop selling and eating bats, and probably a whole lot of other animals, if not all of them. How many diseases do we have to get from animals before we realize that at the very least packing them closely together and then eating them is not a good idea?
 

Lessmog

Active Member
Aug 24, 2013
2,678
6,805
Smögen
Well to go into my thought process that started me asking about those various "origin theories" it includes things like:

> Is it a mistake to collect infected bats for study? The virologists were arguing that we need to capture all the viruses and study them in a lab to understand and fight them. But is that a vector for getting us infected?
(In other words, would we have avoided all this if those bats were left alone in those caves in south China?)

> Are the virus research labs as safe as they claim? Many of the web postings I saw suggest that the labs could be the source of the virus, so maybe we should rethink their safety and reconsider if they are such a good idea.

> Are these labs able to come up with ways to fight these things? COVID-19 is related to SARS... Have the labs come up with a way to treat and vaccinate against original SARs?

> Should we consider trying to exterminate these disease ridden bats instead of collecting them and studying them?

This is all in the name of trying to understand how this happened, and trying to prevent it from happening again in the future.

Or is nature going to just keep doing this to us over and over, and we have no way to stop it?
Ah. The Tree of Knowledge? :cool: Perilous pears. Dangerous dates. :eek:

My take (for whatever it's worth) is: Yes, certainly do seek for more knowledge if you know how -- but do it with a sense of humility and in full awareness that you will actually probably never really know it all. Be VERY CAREFUL how you handle natural material. Never take the bats' pee. :p

Maybe a sombre lesson lurks in here: Coronavirus
A lab in Wuhan advertised for a new bat researcher in October/November, after the previous one (nicknamed Batwoman) went missing. Off line totally. Even on the lab homepage, apparently. Disappearered. Completely.
Just a few hundred yards (280m) off the "wet market" considered to be the global epicenter. :rolleyes:

Or, just bring out the chainsaws and flamethrowers. :(
 

TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,839
8,871
And:
Why are bat viruses so harmful to humans? | eLife Science Digests | eLife
...Bats can carry viruses that are deadly to other mammals without themselves showing serious symptoms. In fact, bats are natural reservoirs for viruses that have some of the highest fatality rates of any viruses that people acquire from wild animals – including rabies, Ebola and the SARS coronavirus. Bats have a suite of antiviral defenses that keep the amount of virus in check. For example, some bats have an antiviral immune response called the interferon pathway perpetually switched on...

Personally, I fear and dislike bats and mosquitoes...
 

dfwatt

Active Member
Sep 24, 2018
3,129
5,138
FL
Well, I have to say that my thoughts about what is the right thing to do are not very evolved.
At heart, I like to think of myself as an environmentalist, and I do believe in a "leave nature alone" philosophy, but humanity is at ongoing risk of more problems related to "overpopulation", and perhaps we are past the point of going back to trying to live in harmony with nature, and we are forced to take scientifically calculated extreme actions out of needs for self preservation.

From what I have read, these particular bat populations are a threat to us. We have extincted many species, some were viewed as threats, some as food, some as sport, some due to us being careless. Those are not coming back. Maybe we should consider if getting rid of these particular types of bats would be beneficial to mankind...? Or maybe this is a natural control in place to keep our population in check? I don't know. I don't have any answers. I am just pondering things from my own perspective.

Ponder more on the interdependence and interconnectedness of life. Or as a Buddhist monk once said "we are put here to overcome the illusion of our separateness." At all scales of Life there is an exquisite balance of cooperation and competition. This is seen at the smallest levels in the relationship between cell signals, in the relationship between our organs, and the relationship between species in a larger ecology, expressing how life really has these quite amazing 'fractal' aspects ( as you zoom in and out at different scales of organization you see the same patterns recurring over and over again).

Most of us who have grown up in Western and particularly American societies have been indoctrinated that competition is the organizing principle. It's not. It's a life-affirming balance of cooperation, alliance, and competition, with old adversaries becoming new allies and old allies becoming new adversaries, and again this is operating at all scales of the vast global system some people call the biosphere.

To remind you if you needed any reminding . . . Tesla was founded on the idea of sustainability. There is no sustainability in energy and transportation infrastructure without a respect for Ecology and for interdependence. After all which hand washes your left hand? It's the right hand of course and the left hand reciprocates and washes the right hand too. That's a very simple model for the kind of thinking humans need more of if we're going to survive. We are running out of room in which the turn the Titanic of our technological civilization around. It will not happen if we believe that God has given us dominion over life. We are too smart and too adaptive to become fully extinct but it's very conceivable that the human herd will undergo a catastrophic culling in the context of the collapse of the environment.

Where will we go in the coming decades as the clock ticks down? I have no idea. I see plenty of inspiring examples of human compassion but equally great and horrifying examples of human greed and arrogance. We seem balanced on a knife-edge between these two poles of our nature and I think it's just a projective test when people make a prediction about which way we're going to go. We all have a choice though in terms of which pole of our nature we want to ally with and express more of. Seems like a simple no brainer.
 
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TEG

Teslafanatic
Aug 20, 2006
21,839
8,871
Pandemic related population reduction and reduction in fuel burning travel is likely to help on the climate change front. We have two "existential threats" to contemplate that are interrelated.
I don't want to start up that discussion though... So this is all I plan to say about that.
 
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