He will have a press conference at 3pm on tvw.org
Their statements keep referencing disadvantage groups which is fine in principle but they need to consider the whole state; if not certain geographic areas.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
He will have a press conference at 3pm on tvw.org
Their statements keep referencing disadvantage groups which is fine in principle but they need to consider the whole state; if not certain geographic areas.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
The notion that ncov-SARS-19 jumped from bats to humans is unlikely. Similar to influenza there is likely an intermediate species in which genetic recombination occurred between human and bat coronaviruses. This is why the fresh meat markets are under the microscope -- they mix humans, bats, and intermediate species together.
As for all the laboratory conspiracy crap -- no comment.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Do you have any conditions that put you at risk like obesity, heart disease, or a lung condition? If not, you are at low risk for a serious case. You may be sick a few days, but probably nothing serious. There are a few people who don't have obvious risk factors who do end up in the hospital, but they are a tiny percentage of the serious cases.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No, I am pretty fit, routinely ride my mountain bike & road bike, rock climb, backpack, etc. I have no conditions. However, I'm absolutely petrified of getting the disease, as I have calculated it is about 10-20x more dangerous than the flu for my age group. And when I last had the flu about 20 years ago, I felt like I was going to die (it's the only time I've sought medical help for an illness), though I was probably not even close to dying .
Not only is it more dangerous, I think it's far from clear for the ~10-20% of people who end up with a serious case whether the recovery of lung function is complete and total. I would like my lungs to be 100%, thank you very much.
There's a significant number of people who become seriously ill, even without known co-morbidities (about 1/3 of the ~700 US deaths under age 50 match this pattern - https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/08/young-people-coronavirus-deaths/). Medical professionals don't understand exactly why, as far as I know (it may be something genetic, but all speculative). Of course, people with these other conditions are at extremely high risk, but I'm at significant risk as well.
The other factor is that my wife is not as lucky as I am, and it's fairly likely that if I get the disease, she will get it as well, and it'll likely kill her.
N5329K
Active Member
This is how one young, fit person recovered. It doesn't sound pleasant, nor quick.
Opinion | We Need to Talk About What Coronavirus Recoveries Look Like
Robin
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
This is the kind of story I'm seeing locally
"I first felt symptoms from COVID-19 on March 17th. I went to my doctor on the 20th and tested negative for flu and was a good candidate to be tested for the virus but alas, my doctor was not in Knox County and the Grainger County health department did not have enough tests to warrant using one on me. On the following Monday, March 23rd, I went to the Knox County Health Department (which officially closed that day) but was able to speak to someone who told me I was clearly in need of the test. Though she could not give me one, she told me the epidemiologist would call me. She did call me a couple of hours later and had the temerity to tell me I likely did not have the virus even though she had never seen me. I managed to work out getting tested in Blount County later that same day and was declared positive for COVID-19 five days later. The absolute lack of testing in Knoxville likely means that there are many with the virus who don't know it. And there may be many asymptomatic persons walking around passing it along. Please stay home as much as you are able. I fear difficult days ahead for the city/county I love if we don't isolate. BTW- I am close to fully recovered now. The cough lingers but I am able to go for walks."
It's scary to think that the majority of people with symptoms here don't get tested. I'm sure testing has improved slightly in the last week or two but I doubt testing is anywhere near keeping up with the symptomatic, let alone the asymptomatic.
"I first felt symptoms from COVID-19 on March 17th. I went to my doctor on the 20th and tested negative for flu and was a good candidate to be tested for the virus but alas, my doctor was not in Knox County and the Grainger County health department did not have enough tests to warrant using one on me. On the following Monday, March 23rd, I went to the Knox County Health Department (which officially closed that day) but was able to speak to someone who told me I was clearly in need of the test. Though she could not give me one, she told me the epidemiologist would call me. She did call me a couple of hours later and had the temerity to tell me I likely did not have the virus even though she had never seen me. I managed to work out getting tested in Blount County later that same day and was declared positive for COVID-19 five days later. The absolute lack of testing in Knoxville likely means that there are many with the virus who don't know it. And there may be many asymptomatic persons walking around passing it along. Please stay home as much as you are able. I fear difficult days ahead for the city/county I love if we don't isolate. BTW- I am close to fully recovered now. The cough lingers but I am able to go for walks."
It's scary to think that the majority of people with symptoms here don't get tested. I'm sure testing has improved slightly in the last week or two but I doubt testing is anywhere near keeping up with the symptomatic, let alone the asymptomatic.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Chimera - combination of RaTG13 and closer to pangolin virus.
Coronavirus Could Be a 'Chimera' of Two Different Viruses, Genome Analysis Suggests
This is amazingly naive. If you are older meaning over 55 you are at elevated risk for a more severe manifestation. If you are male you are at elevated risk as well. So this easy Breezy weather forecast you're providing just doesn't square with the epidemiologic facts. Even younger people describe this often as a brutal experience. And a certain percentage of young people die even if they don't have so-called pre-existing conditions. So it's really a bit of Russian Roulette if you are casual and think that this is just the flu so you don't have to really worry if you contract it. The fact that your experience with it was relatively benign of course is not a basis for judgment. EDIT CORRECTION: you just quoted an experience somebody else was describing.
It's about like your risk of death in a severe car accident (let's say defined in this case as an accident where your car is totaled). Depending on the severity of accident it can be anywhere from 2 to 40%, with the analogy to death in this accident severity hinging on your age, your gender, and whether you have any known or unknown so-called pre-existing conditions). Do you regard severe car accidents as trivial also? Would you advise anybody to sort of no-sweat-easy-breezy through the risk of an accident in which their car was totaled? Because that's kind of what you're saying about covid-19.
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dqd88
Member
It would just be a pure guess, but if I had to guess I'd say around 20-40% of the population that is still out n about (ie still working on site or not exactly adhering to shelter in place)...
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Doggydogworld
Active Member
We don't have to catch them all. We can catch enough through contact tracing if we do it right. Doing it right is very hard, though.
I agree specificity of the Cellex test is too low to be more than a first pass in the US. Other tests claim 99%+, but those may just be marketing department specs.
OK, I didn't pay enough attention to the colors. But the point remains, false negative sends contagious people into the world and false positives send people out with a false sense of immunity. I like these tests for first pass screening, but not for armbanding.
I agree we are in much worse shape than South Korea. Extrapolating US actions so far gives me no hope. Yet I remain hopeful that one city or state will get it right then others will follow. One advantage of decentralized government is the ability to experiment.
This was hard for me to follow. It seems to be based primarily on location data. The Apple/Google framework does not track locations. IMHO people will be more accepting of a non-location approach. But nobody under 40 seems to mind Facebook employees knowing their most intimate details, so I may be way off base.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
All the data sheets I've seen have ridiculously small sample sizes (though that does show up in the confidence interval). If the source of false positives are antibodies to other viruses couldn't the prevalence of those vary between the "clean" blood used to validate the test and the population that the test is used on?
dqd88
Member
That's just for the out-n-about people, ie the one's who are exposing themselves to potential infection. Of the total population there it's probably less, maybe 10-30%. Just a guess though. What's your guess?
Gov. Newsom spoke today about this coalition. He also said tomorrow they would be announcing plans they had agreed upon and would have details then. Had thought this would be region wide but maybe State-specific?
He was asked about Trumps comment (tweet?) today that HE would decide, not Governors. I saw Newsom’s response as side stepping an answer. Said they were working closely with federal officials.
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Ambitious. I don't see how they're going to do this without widespread testing both PCR and antibody. Folks that passed the antibody test so to speak don't have restrictions, people with positive test results indicating active infection have Max restrictions, and everybody in the middle has some flavor of restriction(s).
But we're so far from having any version of an effective Statewide testing program even in New York where they've tested a higher percentage of citizens than anywhere else. We need to test anywhere from 20 to 50% of the population, and be able to do it quickly with short turn around. We're so far from that capacity it's a bit worrisome.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I think healthcare workers and the NYPD are definitely more than 20%. NYPD has lost 23 members (3 more today) and 20% are out sick.
For the population of NYC as a whole I would estimate 10% (that would put the current fatality rate at 0.5% but of course most of the cases are not resolved yet so that number will go up).
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