Coronavirus

[Singer3000]

It's a virus. An influenza virus. But it's not 1918. We understand where it came from. We have sequenced its RNA. We have treatments. We have testing to verify it. No way this will be anything like 1918. It will/has had some economic impact. Maybe it will unify the world a little. Maybe we'll realize that we ARE in this together. Panic is not an option.
Y'all should watch the Netflix 'Pandemic' it seems pretty accurate and gives a lot of insight to the international efforts that have been going on for some time.

It is a virus Yes
An influenza virus. It's a coronavirus
But it's not 1918. It's 2020
We understand where it came from. More or less
We have sequenced its RNA. Yes, China did this quickly
We have treatments. No we don't though there are some promising candidates upon which hopes rest
We have testing to verify it. Tests exist but in most places have not been carried out in anything like the numbers required, in the USA catastrophically so
No way this will be anything like 1918. You do not know this. 50 million is a lot but many experts feel this is the right order of magnitude
It will/has had some economic impact. More than anyone can imagine
Maybe it will unify the world a little. Maybe we'll realize that we ARE in this together. Let's hope so
Panic is not an option. Panic is very much an option, perhaps a likely one, even though it is counterproductive
Y'all should watch the Netflix 'Pandemic' it seems pretty accurate and gives a lot of insight to the international efforts that have been going on for some time. Thanks but I am trying to give myself some downtime in the evenings

 

[bkp_duke]

Oh yes - not a fear for life. Diamond Princess had 700+ cases but only 6 deaths.

The problem is getting quarantined on the ship. They wouldn't let anyone out of their room - and food was delivered at the door. Imagine holed up in a tiny cabin for days, indefinitely.

And with a staff delivering food that are not fully trained in viral quarantine procedures . . .

 

[KSilver2000]

And with a staff delivering food that are not fully trained in viral quarantine procedures . . .

Yup.

Given that even many doctors and nurses in a part of Italy had trouble from transmitting the virus, I think a food delivery personnel would definitely be an issue.

I can only hope the US learned from Japan on handling the incoming ship to be docked in San Francisco.

 

[eevee-fan]

Speaking of "Join the Navy, see the world..."

US Navy imposes 14-day quarantine between port calls for ships in Europe amid coronavirus worries

 

[EVNow]

Seattle / King county has recommended that companies ask people to work from home when possible. Now a host of companies including Microsoft have implemented a mandatory work from home - unless required to be in the office.

Microsoft, other tech firms urge employees to work from home to slow spread of coronavirus

ps : Northshore school district has closed all schools for 14 days. I expect Seattle metro schools to close in a week or two.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Speaking of "Join the Navy, see the world..."

US Navy imposes 14-day quarantine between port calls for ships in Europe amid coronavirus worries

Sickness is nothing new on ships. The very tight living quarters, mess desks, and work environment create a ripe area to spread disease. Any sailor that’s been on a ship is well familiar with the infamous “Double Dragon”, which strikes every deployment at least once.

Now, most of the populous on a ship is something between 18-30, and everyone has been screened prior to their assignment to a ship for health issues, so very very unlikely for any death to occur. Still, the ship is very likely to be a tiny little plague carrier, so it’s a good thing to put the mandatory quarantine.

 

[nwdiver]

Good advice;

 

[ggr]

Good advice;

View attachment 518133

Ouch, that hurts! (Speaking from experience.)

 

[Fact Checking]

New cases in South Korea seem to have stabilized at around the ~800 daily infections level, so unless there's other outbreak nodes or there's a bottleneck in testing capacity, it appears to be near peaking, at least judging by the daily numbers.

As I predicted two days ago, South Korea indeed appears to have peaked in the past couple of days, and is now trending down:

Feb 19:   27 new cases,  173 total cases (+15.6%) 
Feb 20:   53 new cases,  200 total cases (+26.5%)  #
Feb 21:   96 new cases,  253 total cases (+37.9%)  ##
Feb 22:  232 new cases,  349 total cases (+66.4%)  #####
Feb 24:  397 new cases,  581 total cases (+68.3%)  #########
Feb 25:  144 new cases,  978 total cases (+14.7%)  ###
Feb 26:  284 new cases, 1122 total cases (+25.3%)  #######
Feb 27:  505 new cases, 1406 total cases (+35.9%)  ############
Feb 28:  571 new cases, 1911 total cases (+29.8%)  ##############
Feb 29:  813 new cases, 2482 total cases (+32.7%)  ####################
Mar 01:  586 new cases, 3295 total cases (+17.7%)  ##############
Mar 02:  599 new cases, 3881 total cases (+15.4%)  ##############
Mar 03:  851 new cases, 4480 total cases (+18.9%)  #####################
Mar 04:  435 new cases, 5331 total cases ( +8.1%)  ##########

South Korea is clearly past the exponential phase, with daily growth dropping from the peak 40-70% to 8% yesterday, with a low report this morning as well. (South Korea is reporting twice a day, so today's total is not available yet.)

Italy might be a couple of days from peaking:

Feb 25:   95 new cases,  228 total cases (+41.6%)  ##
Feb 26:  130 new cases,  323 total cases (+40.2%)  ###
Feb 27:  202 new cases,  453 total cases (+44.5%)  #####
Feb 28:  234 new cases,  655 total cases (+35.7%)  #####
Feb 29:  239 new cases,  889 total cases (+26.8%)  #####
Mar 01:  566 new cases, 1128 total cases (+50.1%)  ##############
Mar 02:  342 new cases, 1694 total cases (+20.1%)  ########
Mar 03:  466 new cases, 2036 total cases (+22.8%)  ###########
Mar 04:  587 new cases, 2502 total cases (+23.4%)  ##############

Note how growth is still exponential, but off the peak and stabilizing - this is how the outbreak peaked in China and South Korea too.

This is how it peaked on mainland China (excluding Hubei):

Jan 25:  175 new cases, 3400 total cases ( +5.1%)  ####
Jan 26:  483 new cases, 3575 total cases (+13.5%)  ############
Jan 27:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%) 
Jan 28:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%) 
Jan 29: 1005 new cases, 4058 total cases (+24.7%)  #########################
Jan 30:  622 new cases, 5063 total cases (+12.2%)  ###############
Jan 31:    0 new cases, 5685 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 01: 1168 new cases, 5685 total cases (+20.5%)  #############################+
Feb 02:  593 new cases, 6853 total cases ( +8.6%)  ##############
Feb 03:  750 new cases, 7446 total cases (+10.0%)  ##################
Feb 04:  675 new cases, 8196 total cases ( +8.2%)  ################
Feb 05:  660 new cases, 8871 total cases ( +7.4%)  ################
Feb 06:    0 new cases, 9531 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 07:  625 new cases, 9531 total cases ( +6.5%)  ###############
Feb 08:  498 new cases, 10156 total cases ( +4.9%)  ############
Feb 09:  419 new cases, 10654 total cases ( +3.9%)  ##########
Feb 10:    0 new cases, 11073 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 11:  370 new cases, 11073 total cases ( +3.3%)  #########
Feb 12:  377 new cases, 11443 total cases ( +3.2%)  #########
Feb 13:  312 new cases, 11820 total cases ( +2.6%)  #######
Feb 14:  267 new cases, 12132 total cases ( +2.2%)  ######
Feb 15:  193 new cases, 12399 total cases ( +1.5%)  ####
Feb 16:  100 new cases, 12592 total cases (  +.7%)  ##
Feb 17:  111 new cases, 12692 total cases (  +.8%)  ##
Feb 18:    0 new cases, 12803 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 19:   47 new cases, 12803 total cases (  +.3%)  #
Feb 20:    2 new cases, 12850 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 21:    0 new cases, 12852 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 22:   31 new cases, 12852 total cases (  +.2%) 
Feb 24:   18 new cases, 12883 total cases (  +.1%) 
Feb 25:    9 new cases, 12901 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 26:    5 new cases, 12910 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 27:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 28:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%) 
Feb 29:    7 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 01:    0 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 02:    6 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 03:   11 new cases, 12928 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 04:    4 new cases, 12939 total cases (   +0%) 
Mar 05:    5 new cases, 12943 total cases (   +0%)

(Note the reporting gaps, I left them in there for completeness.)

Note that from the visible peak, total patients roughly doubled until the outbreak was contained. With that metric South Korea might peak around 10,000 patients, Italy somewhere between 5,000-10,000, but it's too early to tell there.

So unless there's a deterioration in the containment (undetected patients not under quarantine), I'm cautiously optimistic that containment measures might work in South Korea and Italy like they worked in China.

 

[Causalien]

It's good. I believe most world governments are now taking this seriously now (except Canada... Bleh). Once the gov start, the messaging will change. And idiots calling this just a flu and go about their day without regard for pandemic procedures will stop.

There are some structural problems that the USA will have to sort out. But that should pass.

The next stage is the lull after summer. As I expect this to come back in a second wave around October because the summer decrease in cases will lull us into a sense of complacency and safety. It is important that the search for vaccine and drug treatment is not stopped because of it.

 

[Earlian]

California governor Gavin Newsom has declared a state of emergency after one of the Princess Cruise passengers infected with covid-19 died in California. 50+ confirmed cases in California.

California declares state of emergency over coronavirus after report of first death

While everybody sleeps in California, this could be an unknown outcome since a great part of TSLA Supporters live in that area.

Will they be happy or will fear sneak in their minds?

Or if one of our fellow California Members is still awake:

Is the state of emergency declaration making people more nervous, or is it a sign of governmental strength and makes one feel saver then the last days?

It is very different kind of story to follow a threat from distance, then acknowledging that it’s near you and your loved ones.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Coronavirus pushes Flybe to brink of collapse

And now the airline has collapsed

 

[Pricee2]

A poll please. If I was smart enough to put together a meaningful poll I would do so but alas I lack the necessary skills.
At 76 and possibly ailing from this crap I would like to see how many on this forum have (potentially) been affected by this illness especially in the Puget Sound area.

 

[deffu]

As I predicted two days ago, South Korea indeed appears to have peaked in the past couple of days, and is now trending down:

Feb 19:   27 new cases,  173 total cases (+15.6%)
Feb 20:   53 new cases,  200 total cases (+26.5%)  #
Feb 21:   96 new cases,  253 total cases (+37.9%)  ##
Feb 22:  232 new cases,  349 total cases (+66.4%)  #####
Feb 24:  397 new cases,  581 total cases (+68.3%)  #########
Feb 25:  144 new cases,  978 total cases (+14.7%)  ###
Feb 26:  284 new cases, 1122 total cases (+25.3%)  #######
Feb 27:  505 new cases, 1406 total cases (+35.9%)  ############
Feb 28:  571 new cases, 1911 total cases (+29.8%)  ##############
Feb 29:  813 new cases, 2482 total cases (+32.7%)  ####################
Mar 01:  586 new cases, 3295 total cases (+17.7%)  ##############
Mar 02:  599 new cases, 3881 total cases (+15.4%)  ##############
Mar 03:  851 new cases, 4480 total cases (+18.9%)  #####################
Mar 04:  435 new cases, 5331 total cases ( +8.1%)  ##########

South Korea is clearly past the exponential phase, with daily growth dropping from the peak 40-70% to 8% yesterday, with a low report this morning as well. (South Korea is reporting twice a day, so today's total is not available yet.)

Italy might be a couple of days from peaking:

Feb 25:   95 new cases,  228 total cases (+41.6%)  ##
Feb 26:  130 new cases,  323 total cases (+40.2%)  ###
Feb 27:  202 new cases,  453 total cases (+44.5%)  #####
Feb 28:  234 new cases,  655 total cases (+35.7%)  #####
Feb 29:  239 new cases,  889 total cases (+26.8%)  #####
Mar 01:  566 new cases, 1128 total cases (+50.1%)  ##############
Mar 02:  342 new cases, 1694 total cases (+20.1%)  ########
Mar 03:  466 new cases, 2036 total cases (+22.8%)  ###########
Mar 04:  587 new cases, 2502 total cases (+23.4%)  ##############

Note how growth is still exponential, but off the peak and stabilizing - this is how the outbreak peaked in China and South Korea too.

This is how it peaked on mainland China (excluding Hubei):

Jan 25:  175 new cases, 3400 total cases ( +5.1%)  ####
Jan 26:  483 new cases, 3575 total cases (+13.5%)  ############
Jan 27:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 28:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 29: 1005 new cases, 4058 total cases (+24.7%)  #########################
Jan 30:  622 new cases, 5063 total cases (+12.2%)  ###############
Jan 31:    0 new cases, 5685 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 01: 1168 new cases, 5685 total cases (+20.5%)  #############################+
Feb 02:  593 new cases, 6853 total cases ( +8.6%)  ##############
Feb 03:  750 new cases, 7446 total cases (+10.0%)  ##################
Feb 04:  675 new cases, 8196 total cases ( +8.2%)  ################
Feb 05:  660 new cases, 8871 total cases ( +7.4%)  ################
Feb 06:    0 new cases, 9531 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 07:  625 new cases, 9531 total cases ( +6.5%)  ###############
Feb 08:  498 new cases, 10156 total cases ( +4.9%)  ############
Feb 09:  419 new cases, 10654 total cases ( +3.9%)  ##########
Feb 10:    0 new cases, 11073 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 11:  370 new cases, 11073 total cases ( +3.3%)  #########
Feb 12:  377 new cases, 11443 total cases ( +3.2%)  #########
Feb 13:  312 new cases, 11820 total cases ( +2.6%)  #######
Feb 14:  267 new cases, 12132 total cases ( +2.2%)  ######
Feb 15:  193 new cases, 12399 total cases ( +1.5%)  ####
Feb 16:  100 new cases, 12592 total cases (  +.7%)  ##
Feb 17:  111 new cases, 12692 total cases (  +.8%)  ##
Feb 18:    0 new cases, 12803 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 19:   47 new cases, 12803 total cases (  +.3%)  #
Feb 20:    2 new cases, 12850 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 21:    0 new cases, 12852 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 22:   31 new cases, 12852 total cases (  +.2%)
Feb 24:   18 new cases, 12883 total cases (  +.1%)
Feb 25:    9 new cases, 12901 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 26:    5 new cases, 12910 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 27:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 28:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 29:    7 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 01:    0 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 02:    6 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 03:   11 new cases, 12928 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 04:    4 new cases, 12939 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 05:    5 new cases, 12943 total cases (   +0%)

(Note the reporting gaps, I left them in there for completeness.)

Note that from the visible peak, total patients roughly doubled until the outbreak was contained. With that metric South Korea might peak around 10,000 patients, Italy somewhere between 5,000-10,000, but it's too early to tell there.

So unless there's a deterioration in the containment (undetected patients not under quarantine), I'm cautiously optimistic that containment measures might work in South Korea and Italy like they worked in China.

Thanks for the great analysis! I feel sorry for the people suffered this disease in South Korea and Italy. but as a tesla investor, ultimately, it is the cases in U.S that matter the most. what's your prediction/analysis of the virus outbreak in U.S? Is it going to be something like Japan/Singapore with limited outbreak, or exponential growth as seen in Korea/Italy?

 

[Vinny809]

4 new cases in the bay today. 3 unannounced cases in Redding CA as well.

 

[GFernandes]

As I predicted two days ago, South Korea indeed appears to have peaked in the past couple of days, and is now trending down:

Feb 19:   27 new cases,  173 total cases (+15.6%)
Feb 20:   53 new cases,  200 total cases (+26.5%)  #
Feb 21:   96 new cases,  253 total cases (+37.9%)  ##
Feb 22:  232 new cases,  349 total cases (+66.4%)  #####
Feb 24:  397 new cases,  581 total cases (+68.3%)  #########
Feb 25:  144 new cases,  978 total cases (+14.7%)  ###
Feb 26:  284 new cases, 1122 total cases (+25.3%)  #######
Feb 27:  505 new cases, 1406 total cases (+35.9%)  ############
Feb 28:  571 new cases, 1911 total cases (+29.8%)  ##############
Feb 29:  813 new cases, 2482 total cases (+32.7%)  ####################
Mar 01:  586 new cases, 3295 total cases (+17.7%)  ##############
Mar 02:  599 new cases, 3881 total cases (+15.4%)  ##############
Mar 03:  851 new cases, 4480 total cases (+18.9%)  #####################
Mar 04:  435 new cases, 5331 total cases ( +8.1%)  ##########

South Korea is clearly past the exponential phase, with daily growth dropping from the peak 40-70% to 8% yesterday, with a low report this morning as well. (South Korea is reporting twice a day, so today's total is not available yet.)

Italy might be a couple of days from peaking:

Feb 25:   95 new cases,  228 total cases (+41.6%)  ##
Feb 26:  130 new cases,  323 total cases (+40.2%)  ###
Feb 27:  202 new cases,  453 total cases (+44.5%)  #####
Feb 28:  234 new cases,  655 total cases (+35.7%)  #####
Feb 29:  239 new cases,  889 total cases (+26.8%)  #####
Mar 01:  566 new cases, 1128 total cases (+50.1%)  ##############
Mar 02:  342 new cases, 1694 total cases (+20.1%)  ########
Mar 03:  466 new cases, 2036 total cases (+22.8%)  ###########
Mar 04:  587 new cases, 2502 total cases (+23.4%)  ##############

Note how growth is still exponential, but off the peak and stabilizing - this is how the outbreak peaked in China and South Korea too.

This is how it peaked on mainland China (excluding Hubei):

Jan 25:  175 new cases, 3400 total cases ( +5.1%)  ####
Jan 26:  483 new cases, 3575 total cases (+13.5%)  ############
Jan 27:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 28:    0 new cases, 4058 total cases (   +0%)
Jan 29: 1005 new cases, 4058 total cases (+24.7%)  #########################
Jan 30:  622 new cases, 5063 total cases (+12.2%)  ###############
Jan 31:    0 new cases, 5685 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 01: 1168 new cases, 5685 total cases (+20.5%)  #############################+
Feb 02:  593 new cases, 6853 total cases ( +8.6%)  ##############
Feb 03:  750 new cases, 7446 total cases (+10.0%)  ##################
Feb 04:  675 new cases, 8196 total cases ( +8.2%)  ################
Feb 05:  660 new cases, 8871 total cases ( +7.4%)  ################
Feb 06:    0 new cases, 9531 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 07:  625 new cases, 9531 total cases ( +6.5%)  ###############
Feb 08:  498 new cases, 10156 total cases ( +4.9%)  ############
Feb 09:  419 new cases, 10654 total cases ( +3.9%)  ##########
Feb 10:    0 new cases, 11073 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 11:  370 new cases, 11073 total cases ( +3.3%)  #########
Feb 12:  377 new cases, 11443 total cases ( +3.2%)  #########
Feb 13:  312 new cases, 11820 total cases ( +2.6%)  #######
Feb 14:  267 new cases, 12132 total cases ( +2.2%)  ######
Feb 15:  193 new cases, 12399 total cases ( +1.5%)  ####
Feb 16:  100 new cases, 12592 total cases (  +.7%)  ##
Feb 17:  111 new cases, 12692 total cases (  +.8%)  ##
Feb 18:    0 new cases, 12803 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 19:   47 new cases, 12803 total cases (  +.3%)  #
Feb 20:    2 new cases, 12850 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 21:    0 new cases, 12852 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 22:   31 new cases, 12852 total cases (  +.2%)
Feb 24:   18 new cases, 12883 total cases (  +.1%)
Feb 25:    9 new cases, 12901 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 26:    5 new cases, 12910 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 27:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 28:    0 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Feb 29:    7 new cases, 12915 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 01:    0 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 02:    6 new cases, 12922 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 03:   11 new cases, 12928 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 04:    4 new cases, 12939 total cases (   +0%)
Mar 05:    5 new cases, 12943 total cases (   +0%)

(Note the reporting gaps, I left them in there for completeness.)

Note that from the visible peak, total patients roughly doubled until the outbreak was contained. With that metric South Korea might peak around 10,000 patients, Italy somewhere between 5,000-10,000, but it's too early to tell there.

So unless there's a deterioration in the containment (undetected patients not under quarantine), I'm cautiously optimistic that containment measures might work in South Korea and Italy like they worked in China.

i hope you don’t mind I take some of your analysis on COVID19 and share them in my local groups, you’re literally the reason I was able to change my mind on this subject, and many people should be aware of all the facts you have been presenting in these forums.

thanks @Fact Checking

 

[LN1_Casey]

While everybody sleeps in California, this could be an unknown outcome since a great part of TSLA Supporters live in that area.

Will they be happy or will fear sneak in their minds?

Or if one of our fellow California Members is still awake:

Is the state of emergency declaration making people more nervous, or is it a sign of governmental strength and makes one feel saver then the last days?

It is very different kind of story to follow a threat from distance, then acknowledging that it’s near you and your loved ones.

I'm from Cali, and a good majority of my family are on my facebook, and I have a few friends in the San Jose area. So, second hand, I have seen no worry or other fear-based postings from any of them, even the more--uh--gullible members.

Of course, they may have headed to their underground bunker to hold down, and don't have access to the internet installed down there yet, so....

 

[Fact Checking]

i hope you don’t mind I take some of your analysis on COVID19 and share them in my local groups, you’re literally the reason I was able to change my mind on this subject, and many people should be aware of all the facts you have been presenting in these forums.

thanks @Fact Checking

Sure, feel free - but note that market reaction depends on how the majority of investors perceive the coronavirus, which will not always be fully informed or even rational. Fear can also be self-fulfilling and have a real effect on the economy. TSLA will be exposed to the macro storms when that happens.

Also, regardless of how this affects people below 50, everyone above 60 should treat this as a serious health risk, and everyone above 70 or who is in contact with the elderly should treat it as a deadly risk for which there's no vaccine yet.

 

[vikings123]

South Korea is clearly past the exponential phase, with daily growth dropping from the peak 40-70% to 8% yesterday, with a low report this morning as well. (South Korea is reporting twice a day, so today's total is not available yet.)

looks like there was an uptick based on this article.

South Korea declares new 'special care zone' as coronavirus spreads

 

[Singer3000]

The UK's Chief Medical Officer is currently speaking in front of a Parliamentary Committee:

He says he thinks there is "slim to zero chance of this going away", adding that "I’m expecting the number only to go up."

"There are several cases where we cannot see where this has come from.

"That makes it highly likely there is some level of community transmission now."

"One of the things that is clear if you model the epidemic... we will get 50 per cent of all the cases over a three week period and 95 per cent of the cases over a nine week period if if follows the trajectory we think it is likely to.

"So if all of those were spaced out on the NHS over two or three years that would be easily manageable but it’s the fact they are so heavily concentrated... that has pros and cons.

"If this goes to the top end of the range... where the NHS has huge pressure on it for a relatively short period of time. We will try to push things to before and after the peak."

But Prof Whitty added that some people would not get "lifesaving treatment" due to the outbreak:

"There are some lifesaving treatment where that will not be possible and we will just have to carry on the middle.

"We are now mainly in delay phase.

"As time goes by then may start to move into the more socially determined actions... the kind of changes we can make which involve behaviours in society.

"We are now basically mainly in delay, but we are maintaining some elements of contain, we are mainly in the second stage at this point in time."​