Coronavirus

[cusetownusa]

Personally, I'm not too worried about the symptoms if I, myself, were to possibly become infected.
I'm much more worried that I would get infected and accidentally pass it on to my little ones or their grandparents.
As with anything in life, humans tend to become more wary of things when they have more to lose.

I agree...also, as a positive, it seems like kids seem to handle this virus well. I have two kids so that is my first concern. The grandparents are all retired so they can easily change up their routine if needed to avoid people/areas where contagion is possible. Both my kids had the flu about a month ago and we made sure they stayed away from their grand parents. If we get this coronavirus, we will do the same.

 

[KSilver2000]

Poor filtration? I'm going to need some citations for that claim. I have read multiple news sources pointing to very good HEPA filtration, in conjunction with compartmentalized circulation, in modern commercial airliners.

You're right.
Wrongly worded on my part. I was referring to the possibility of being stuck in a seat with someone close to you sneezing/coughing. Is the HEPA filtered air in the cabin clean? For sure. But, that won't help much if someone next to you is sick.

 

[dfwatt]

Personally, I'm not too worried about the symptoms if I, myself, were to possibly become infected.
I'm much more worried that I would get infected and accidentally pass it on to my little ones or their grandparents.
As with anything in life, humans tend to become more wary of things when they have more to lose.

Evidence suggests the transmission to your parents is much more serious than transmission to your kids. This virus seems to be almost uniformly mild in children but with significantly increased mortality in the elderly. This of course doesn't mean that you should be casual about transmission into younger Generations, because of course they're great at infecting everyone around them. But the health consequences for them may not be nearly as serious as it is for the elderly.

 

[KSilver2000]

Evidence suggests the transmission to your parents is much more serious than transmission to your kids. This virus seems to be almost uniformly mild in children but with significantly increased mortality in the elderly. This of course doesn't mean that you should be casual about transmission into younger Generations, because of course they're great at infecting everyone around them. But the health consequences for them may not be nearly as serious as it is for the elderly.

True.
I do have a 1yo. Not sure what data there is on that age group. So, I am a little more worrisome.

 

[Pricee2]

@ dfwatt and Snapdragon. Thank you for the kind thoughts.
I will share a little info on why the wife and I are possibly dealing with COVID-19. We engage in a social activity multiple times a week that entails an extreme amount of hand touching. The gentleman that died at the Evergreen hospital in Kirkland was also a frequent participant in this activity so we were/are probably at higher risk than most.
I am in day 12 dealing with this and am making small daily improvements.
Be safe all.

 

[Yuri_G]

@ dfwatt and Snapdragon. Thank you for the kind thoughts.
I will share a little info on why the wife and I are possibly dealing with COVID-19. We engage in a social activity multiple times a week that entails an extreme amount of hand touching. The gentleman that died at the Evergreen hospital in Kirkland was also a frequent participant in this activity so we were/are probably at higher risk than most.
I am in day 12 dealing with this and am making small daily improvements.
Be safe all.

Just a thought, maybe you could abstain from your social activity until your symptoms are resolved?

 

[Heimdallr]

Coronavirus Update (Live): 98,053 Cases and 3,356 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer

Encouraging data from China and South Korea. It seems like these two Asian nations will be able to contain the virus. Mortality for South Korea is under 0.7% and they have enough data to make this a meaningful number. More than 140k people tested!

Europe doesn't look nearly as good as China or South Korea. Italy looks quite bad and is a warning sign for the rest of Europe as they are about one week ahead of all the other countries. They are doing a lot to contain the virus but the number of infected people and deaths are still rising. This is very concerning as other European countries aren't doing *sugar* right to prevent the spread of the virus right now, e.g. Germany. I wouldn't be surprised if Germany's cases exploded to 10'000 over the next two weeks.

Rest of the world either seems fine or too early to tell, with Iran as the obvious exception. Iran is rapidly descending into chaos and the numbers can't be trusted. Iran's neighbors should be extra careful.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Just a thought, maybe you could abstain from your social activity until your symptoms are resolved?

It’s difficult to fight the urge to swing. All those naked bodies...

 

[Cherry Wine]

You're right.
Wrongly worded on my part. I was referring to the possibility of being stuck in a seat with someone close to you sneezing/coughing. Is the HEPA filtered air in the cabin clean? For sure. But, that won't help much if someone next to you is sick.

Yes, if you're literally right next to someone that is sick your chances of infection have to be pretty substantial. But flying does not appear to be a "death sentence" with respect to getting infected. This piece from NPR was pretty informative and discussed a study of pathogens on planes. I'll leave you with a best practice recommendation from one of the experts quoted in the article:

Don't fear, Gendreau says. There's even a way to protect yourself from these airborne pathogens: Take advantage of that vent above your head.

"Set your ventilation at low or medium," he says. "Then position it so you can draw an imaginary line of current right in front of your head. I put my hands on my lap so I can feel the current — so I know it's properly positioned."

Then if something infectious is floating in your personal space, he says, that air from the vent will create enough current to knock it away. And you'll be more likely to go home healthy.

Not a silver bullet, but better than nothing.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

I reckon another episode of Doomsday Preppers will give us insight into where all the toilet paper went...

 

[Cherry Wine]

True.
I do have a 1yo. Not sure what data there is on that age group. So, I am a little more worrisome.

I have two young children - all data thus far back up @dfwatt's assertions, thankfully. I would be significantly more anxious otherwise. Toddlers are impressive disease vectors.

 

[X Fan]

Yes, if you're literally right next to someone that is sick your chances of infection have to be pretty substantial. But flying does not appear to be a "death sentence" with respect to getting infected. This piece from NPR was pretty informative and discussed a study of pathogens on planes. I'll leave you with a best practice recommendation from one of the experts quoted in the article:



Not a silver bullet, but better than nothing.

An earlier post mentioned how people are making adjustments re: washing, hand sanitizer (of course if you can find some under $650), etc.

Small anecdote: On my flight this morning not a single person in first class asked for a drink throughout the entire 2 hr journey (forgot to add: nor went to the restroom up front).

 

[NicoV]

True.
I do have a 1yo. Not sure what data there is on that age group. So, I am a little more worrisome.

No fatalities at all in he 0-9y age group: Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

 

[Pricee2]

Just a thought, maybe you could abstain from your social activity until your symptoms are resolved?

Have not been out of the house for a week. Most of these events are being cancelled as we speak and more are sure to follow.

Basically I have quarantined myself.

 

[Cherry Wine]

An earlier post mentioned how people are making adjustments re: washing, hand sanitizer (of course if you can find some under $650), etc.

Small anecdote: On my flight this morning not a single person in first class asked for a drink throughout the entire 2 hr journey.

You may be referencing one of my posts, lol. I had noted a change in behaviors in my social / professional interactions (some I considered significant, in that handshakes were not exchanged during a meeting). Your anecdote is noteworthy and is reassuring - changes in behavior are one of the most powerful tools we have, and it seems that at least some people are taking this seriously, statements from certain political figures notwithstanding.

 

[KSilver2000]

No fatalities at all in he 0-9y age group: Coronavirus Age, Sex, Demographics (COVID-19) - Worldometer

Not disagreeing with anyone.

But, want to point out that, a statistic showing 0 deaths out of however few reported cases in the 0-9 group is meaningless by itself. Also, infants aren’t exactly the same as a 9 year old.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Interesting stopgap research:

DARPA Races To Create a "Firebreak" Treatment for the Coronavirus

In the P3 program, the 60-day clock begins when a blood sample is taken from a person who has fully recovered from the disease of interest. Then the researchers screen that sample to find all the protective antibodies the person’s body has made to fight off the virus or bacteria. They use modeling and bioinformatics to choose the antibody that seems most effective at neutralizing the pathogen, and then determine the genetic sequence that codes for the creation of that particular antibody. That snippet of genetic code can then be manufactured quickly and at scale, and injected into people.

Jenkins says this approach is much faster than manufacturing the antibodies themselves. Once the genetic snippets are delivered by an injection, “your body becomes the bioreactor” that creates the antibodies, she says. The P3 program’s goal is to have protective levels of the antibodies circulating within 6 to 24 hours.

DARPA calls this a “firebreak” technology, because it can provide immediate immunity to medical personnel, first responders, and other vulnerable people. However, it wouldn’t create the permanent protection that vaccines provide. (Vaccines work by presenting the body with a safe form of the pathogen, thus giving the body a low-stakes opportunity to learn how to respond, which it remembers on future exposures.)

 

[EVNow]

There is a subreddit devoted to science of COVID-19. It has several papers (pre-pub) that are useful to look at too. Like this one.

Epidemiology and Transmission of COVID-19 in Shenzhen China: Analysis of 391 cases and 1,286 of their close contacts : COVID19

We compare cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimate the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and hospitalization.

Cases were isolated on average 4.6 days after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1.9 days. Household contacts and those travelling with a case where at higher risk of infection (ORs 6 and 7) than other close contacts

This work shows that heightened surveillance and isolation, particularly contact tracing, reduces the time cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing R.​

 

[adesai]

Intense memo by Sequoia Capital about economic effects of Coronavirus:

Venture firm Sequoia is sounding the alarm about the economy again as coronavirus spreads

 

[KarenRei]

Time to bring back this ad?