Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

Sounds like Tesla does not yet have permission to open the Fremont factory. From NY Times:

"Tesla has told employees it intended to restart its factory in Fremont, Calif., on Friday. But the electric car company’s plans do not comply with a local government order that has not yet cleared large manufacturers to resume operations.
The company informed employees of the plan in company emails that were reviewed by The New York Times. The emails were sent after Gov. Gavin Newsom of California said manufacturing companies could resume operations even as other businesses were to stay closed because of the coronavirus pandemic. The governor also said that local governments could impose tougher restrictions than those that apply statewide.
A coalition of health officials from six counties in the San Francisco Bay Area and the City of Berkeley have chosen to maintain to stricter limits in their most recent order, issued on May 4.
That order allowed construction, landscaping, agricultural and other outdoor businesses to resume operations, but restaurants, bars or other indoor businesses “that do not permit physical distancing or have high-touch equipment” must remain closed.
“Tesla has been informed that they do not meet these criteria and must not reopen,” Neetu Balram, a spokeswoman for Alameda County, said in a statement.
Tesla representatives did not respond to a request for comment."​

 

[TEG]

In case anyone missed this:
US Vice-President Mike Pence's aide tests positive for coronavirus
Trump reportedly got 'lava level mad' over potential exposure to coronavirus

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Positivity rates continue to trend down, even outside of NY/NJ/CT. This is good. Though it could definitely be better, at least it is going the right way! ~300k tests today. Maybe we'll see 400k tests next week?

WHO recommends positivity below 10%. Alan recommends positivity below 5%.

Source: COVID Tracking

 

[TEG]

Yikes:
Coronavirus: Man Who Got $69 Million From New York Also Tried To Sell To California

 

[Daniel in SD]

In case anyone missed this:
US Vice-President Mike Pence's aide tests positive for coronavirus
Trump reportedly got 'lava level mad' over potential exposure to coronavirus

Well, she is the only person not wearing a mask. If I were a press member I would be wearing a respirator...
It sounds like non-politicians will now be required to wear masks around the president.

 

[PeterJA]

I think you are missing some very important points here:
#1: You can be (very) infectious before you show any symptoms.
#2: Some people are infectious without showing any symptoms at all.
#3: Just because your body may be able to fight it off well doesn't mean that you aren't spreading it to others.

Actually I'm not missing that.

How about this: Give me a test for virus and antibodies.
If I'm shedding, then obviously I don't need a vaccine.
If I'm not shedding, but have antibodies, I don't need a vaccine.
If I have no virus or antibodies, spray viruses up my nose and I'll go straight home and watch porn alone for weeks.

Big Pharma would love this. Dual test for everyone. Virus samples for the crazies like me, vaccine for folks who don't mind a hastily researched foreign substance (preserved with god-knows-what) injected into them. Everybody's happy.

I think the premise (although I don't have any data handy to back this up) is that previously vaccinated people are far less likely to be spreaders than someone who has to build up immunity naturally.

Whose premise? My understanding (with no data handy to back it up) is the opposite. Natural immunity targets the pathogen precisely. Vaccine-stimulated immunity targets whatever nonactive thing was injected -- a broken piece of the pathogen, or a similar pathogen (like cowpox protects from smallpox). Vaccine-makers have to hope the body transfers its defenses from the nonactive thing to the pathogen, and it doesn't always work.

I gather people oversimplify to think as long as you don't get visibly, noticeably sick then a vaccine would not be helpful, but I think that is wrong.

All of this discussion is basically academic right now about covid-19 as there IS NO VACCINE !
The "anti-vaxxers" are mounting an effort to try to stop people from considering any vaccine before it becomes available.

I don't know what people you're talking about, and I'm not trying to stop anyone from doing whatever they believe will best protect their health. And I ask the same consideration.

 

[Norbert]

Regarding the question if summer temperatures will stop COVID-19:

Although the really big hot spots are in the North West of the US, within California most new deaths are from Los Angeles, also Orange County and San Diego. That's all southern CA.

 

[RobStark]

Sweden is most comparable to Norway and Finland at 40 and 46 deaths per million, respectively. Proponents claim Sweden will reach herd immunity soon and the tables will turn, with Norway and Finland taking the lead in deaths per day. That would indeed be a dramatic change. Sweden averaged 75 deaths per day the past week, Finland 6 and Norway only 1.

Sweden population 10.23M has 25,265 confirmed cases
Stockholm County population 2.344M has 8,536 confirmed cases

It seems neither of those polities have sufficient recovered cases to garner herd immunity.

 

[TEG]

Well, she is the only person not wearing a mask...

Just following the boss' example...

 

[RobStark]

Regarding the question if summer temperatures will stop COVID-19:

Although the really big hot spots are in the North West of the US, within California most new deaths are from Los Angeles, also Orange County and San Diego. That's all southern CA.

Los Angeles County has 10.2M of California's 39.5M people.

 

[TEG]

Hmm:
Reports: Trump to Offer Branded Masks

 

[GFernandes]

Currently estimated IFR with median average of all serologic and large scale PCR is at 0,2-0,4% per this sheet that has been daily updated:
PCR and Serological Studies

As a perspective, yes, influenza averages at 0,1% and has plenty of years below 0,1%, however it also has seasons above 0,1%.

Take for example this study for Italy, check the tables 2 and 4 and realize the estimated IFR goes from 0,3-0,7%(depending on how many people die and you correlate them to influenza) in 16/17 and 14/15 - In a population where risk subjects have a decent % of vaccination:

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/...vLM_8VAmC_Hrxd7FUHxre_sPwFxA8d0z6VrBN_aInPd4o

 

[normd]

I didn’t find a tread suitable for this topic, so here I go. I found this page that claims to have a real time update on the Corona Virus. It shows nubers of infected, deaths, and recovered from the virus. It also include a realtime view of the building of the Wuhan hospital. Anyone here familiar with the sours of this live stream? I think this virus might might be a matter to consider as a TSLA shareholder.
Coronavirus Map

o why is this relevant here at all? This is off topic.

 

[Norbert]

Los Angeles County has 10.2M of California's 39.5M people.

Yet more than half the new deaths, total deaths, new cases, and almost half the total cases.

 

[RobStark]

Yet more than half the new deaths, total deaths, new cases, and almost half the total cases.

And the Bay Area entered into the pandemic earlier. You would expect them to exit first too.

 

[Daniel in SD]

New Zealand claims to have eliminated COVID-19. I'm fascinated by the idea of the world splitting into a COVID world and a non-COVID world. I wish we were going to be part of the non-COVID world, I always wanted to visit New Zealand.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31097-7/fulltext

 

[madodel]

New Zealand claims to have eliminated COVID-19. I'm fascinated by the idea of the world splitting into a COVID world and a non-COVID world. I wish we were going to be part of the non-COVID world, I always wanted to visit New Zealand.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31097-7/fulltext

Islands are the secret sauce.

 

[Florafauna]

Islands are the secret sauce.

Unless you are the UK...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

It seems neither of those polities have sufficient recovered cases to garner herd immunity.

There's repeated claims from the Swedish authorities (ambassador the most recently) that they have something like 30% antibody prevalence in Stockholm. I haven't seen the support for this claim. (Last I heard they had mixed in some COVID patient blood donors with their random blood draw serology survey.)

Swedish Ambassador Says Stockholm Expected To Reach 'Herd Immunity' In May

Sweden Health Agency Withdraws Controversial Coronavirus Report

I am calling for a complete and total ban on testing until we can figure out what the heck is going on.

and San Diego.

Yet more than half the new deaths, total deaths, new cases, and almost half the total cases.

Don't lump San Diego County together with LA! We're in good shape right now - things are looking ok. 8.5% of the state population, only 6.3% of the deaths or so. Positivity rates coming down. Looking forward to another good day of test data this afternoon. I feel like we're making real progress this week (for the first time). (7% of the cases, 7.8% of the tests.)

It's substantially colder on average (where people live) in San Diego County than LA County though.

 

[renim]

New Zealand claims to have eliminated COVID-19. I'm fascinated by the idea of the world splitting into a COVID world and a non-COVID world. I wish we were going to be part of the non-COVID world, I always wanted to visit New Zealand.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31097-7/fulltext

Newzealand. Had 2 cases yesterday
Covid 19 coronavirus: What you need to know about Friday's big developments

Because the results are so similar, (even though lockdown was quite different) it seems likely that NZ and Aus will form a mutual travel bubble.