Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

20% of the US just indicated that they would not get covid-19 vaccination even if it becomes available and is regarded as safe and effective. This proves that mass psychosis or some version of it (social media brainwashing) is a sizable factor in US politics.

Unfortunately societal factors and lack of leadership from President Trump (and his active undermining of sensible public safety measures) really do make the possibility of eliminating the virus to a low level in this country fairly remote. It'll be sad, because most other countries around the world who have chosen to eliminate the virus will be doing just fine by then, I suspect. It's going to be an excellent opportunity for China to broaden influence in the world with Asia and Australia & elsewhere, since all these countries are going to want to be able to conduct trade/provide services/engage in tourism with someone, and the US won't really be an option.

The position of POTUS really is a highly influential one. It would have an amazing impact if he decided he wanted to solve this problem and get re-elected.

 

[dfwatt]

Unfortunately societal factors and lack of leadership from President Trump (and his active undermining of sensible public safety measures) really do make the possibility of eliminating the virus to a low level in this country fairly remote. It'll be sad, because most other countries around the world who have chosen to eliminate the virus will be doing just fine by then, I suspect. It's going to be an excellent opportunity for China to broaden influence in the world with Asia and Australia & elsewhere, since all these countries are going to want to be able to conduct trade/provide services/engage in tourism with someone, and the US won't really be an option.

The position of POTUS really is a highly influential one. It would have an amazing impact if he decided he wanted to solve this problem and get re-elected.

Both Russia and China must believe that the election of Trump has been the gift that never stops giving. Virtual abandonment of NATO, collapse of any version of world leadership, enabling of the fossil fuel Industries at a level not seen in recentyears, conjoined with complete denial of climate change science, promotion of wild right-wing conspiracy theories that support all kinds of right-wing dictatorships, the undermining of science as credible including of course in relationship to Public Health, and even the complete collapse of any semblance of presidential decorum, leadership, or moral example. All of that moves the United States away from its previous position of at least being in some fashion 'The Shining City on the Hill' as somebody once said and looking more and more like a third-world dictatorship with first world money.

Interestingly enough Trump's Handler, Vladimir Putin, insists on vaccination in his country with a zero tolerance for anti-vaccine bullshit while supporting Russian Bots and troll Farms disseminating vaccination conspiracy theories. You couldn't get a clearer reading on what the real truth is likely to be from that single fact.

 

[madodel]

600 Physicians Say Lockdowns Are A ‘Mass Casualty Incident’

Not unheard of for people, even doctors to put profits and politics above human life.
GOP fronts 'pro-Trump' doctors to prescribe rapid reopening
Edit: Added "and politics"

 

[golfcart]

I've seen three issues with Florida's numbers that give me pause:
- The Rebekah Jones firing
- The medical examiner report fiasco
- They excluded snowbirds who weren't full time residents

Any single incident can be explained, but when a pattern forms I get suspicious.

You make fair points, and I assume the data is not perfect.

As far as Rebekah Jones is concerned, I am not into conspiracy theories. Once all of the information came out I don't think she walked away looking like the data scientist martyr she was made out to be by some media sources. That's my opinion of course.

As far as counting goes... That link you showed indicated that non-resident (snowbird) deaths being included makes it rise by around 8%. Say I include those, then they have ~2500 total deaths out of 22,000,000 residents vs ~2300 deaths. And that assumes the denominator stays the same... I assume snowbirds aren't counted in the population data either. But say I give allow all those additional deaths and keep the denominator the same, it changes the number from 105 death/million vs 113 death/million... New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut are all 5x that or more with a younger population and fewer issues like diabetes and obesity on average than Florida residents.

Partisan news sources will tell you plenty of reasons why data they don't like is under-counted or over-counted. New York and Florida show this best... the left leaning media hates seeing Florida do well and wants to promote anything that makes the numbers worse while making Deblasio and Cuomo heroes (more Cuomo) despite having the worst outbreak in the country and both downplaying the virus early on. The right leaning media hates that New York looks so bad and promotes theories that they are over counting deaths and downplays the unique challenges a place like NYC faces being an international hub with high density and ubiquitous public transit. It is a sad state of affairs that partisan politics dominate even in a crisis like this.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Actually, the official cite you gave clearly states that 9,098 persons were tested, of which 4,644 were positive. Further, you don't have data on how many tests were repeated on individuals, which, of course, reduces the odds of a false negative.

True, the first round of testing got 73% positive at Marion Correctional Institution. Note that that's 73% of the entire prison population, it doesn't look like they had tested the entire prison (total number of negative tests is smaller than the number of people who didn't test positive!).
https://drc.ohio.gov/Portals/0/DRC COVID-19 Information 04-19-2020 1305.pdf
73% Of Inmates At An Ohio Prison Test Positive For Coronavirus

For the whole prison system they ran 3037 tests with 2400 coming back positive. That's 79% and surely some of the 21% were true negatives.

 

[golfcart]

Spring break would have spread covid-19 among people going back to college or north in general and not nearly as much Florida residents. On the other hand there was a recent firing of a FL state data manager because she did not like the way Ron DeSantis was posting numbers, claiming that he was deliberately fudging on deaths and cases. I don't know enough to have a firm opinion on that but it was worrisome.

It could have, or college kids from the Northeast (where they already had big outbreaks) could have brought it to Florida with them spread it around down there. Bottom line is that, despite all of the doomsday assertions about Florida back in march and the unfavorable demographics of the state, Florida is doing pretty well compared to most other states.

 

[dfwatt]

It could have, or college kids from the Northeast (where they already had big outbreaks) could have brought it to Florida with them spread it around down there. Bottom line is that, despite all of the doomsday assertions about Florida back in march and the unfavorable demographics of the state, Florida is doing pretty well compared to most other states.

Evidence suggests that the early migration out of New York in January and February was all to the east coast of Florida. In other words around the Miami area and its pretty wealthy suburbs where there's actually quite a bit of covid-19. Where we are, the relatively poor Shanty towns in Southwest Florida (hah!), got much less of that travel and therefore much less covid-19 early and under the radar. That has made a huge difference

 

[madodel]

Thankfully both Elon and VP Pence wore masks meeting with the astronauts today. 2 U.S. astronauts arrive at launch pad for SpaceX launch

 

[dfwatt]

You make fair points, and I assume the data is not perfect.

As far as Rebekah Jones is concerned, I am not into conspiracy theories. Once all of the information came out I don't think she walked away looking like the data scientist martyr she was made out to be by some media sources. That's my opinion of course.

As far as counting goes... That link you showed indicated that non-resident (snowbird) deaths being included makes it rise by around 8%. Say I include those, then they have ~2500 total deaths out of 22,000,000 residents vs ~2300 deaths. And that assumes the denominator stays the same... I assume snowbirds aren't counted in the population data either. But say I give allow all those additional deaths and keep the denominator the same, it changes the number from 105 death/million vs 113 death/million... New York, New Jersey, Massachusetts, Rhode Island, and Connecticut are all 5x that or more with a younger population and fewer issues like diabetes and obesity on average than Florida residents.

Partisan news sources will tell you plenty of reasons why data they don't like is under-counted or over-counted. New York and Florida show this best... the left leaning media hates seeing Florida do well and wants to promote anything that makes the numbers worse while making Deblasio and Cuomo heroes (more Cuomo) despite having the worst outbreak in the country and both downplaying the virus early on. The right leaning media hates that New York looks so bad and promotes theories that they are over counting deaths and downplays the unique challenges a place like NYC faces being an international hub with high density and ubiquitous public transit. It is a sad state of affairs that partisan politics dominate even in a crisis like this.

While I take it as axiomatic that polarisation is a problem in our country I have trouble with your statement that the "left-leaning media hates to see Florida do well". That's the kind of statement that actually is itself divisive. Show me a single news clipping that supports that position - that someone is upset because Florida stats look better than expected. And please, this is different from somebody raising questions about whether or not Florida's numbers are slightly massaged or cooked.

 

[golfcart]

Evidence suggests that the early migration out of New York in January and February was all to the east coast of Florida. In other words around the Miami area and its pretty wealthy suburbs where there's actually quite a bit of covid-19. Where we are, the relatively poor Shanty towns in Southwest Florida (hah!), got much less of that travel and therefore much less covid-19 early and under the radar. That has made a huge difference

Spring Break and the closing of Disney World didn't happen until March though, that is my point. Despite that, they have seemingly contained the outbreak pretty well despite unfavorable demographics. How much is luck? I don't know... warm weather, low density, and lots of outdoor activities may play a huge role in that success but I think we still need to look at them to figure out what they are doing right.

 

[dfwatt]

Spring Break and the closing of Disney World didn't happen until March though, that is my point. Despite that, they have seemingly contained the outbreak pretty well despite unfavorable demographics. How much is luck? I don't know... warm weather, low density, and lots of outdoor activities may play a huge role in that success but I think we still need to look at them to figure out what they are doing right.

I believe that the preponderance of opinion although it's not definitive is that the early spread into Florida came in January and February from New York and surrounding areas.

For sure being outside is better by any standard.

 

[golfcart]

While I take it as axiomatic that polarisation is a problem in our country I have trouble with your statement that the "left-leaning media hates to see Florida do well". That's the kind of statement that actually is itself divisive. Show me a single news clipping that supports that position - that someone is upset because Florida stats look better than expected. And please, this is different from somebody raising questions about whether or not Florida's numbers are slightly massaged or cooked.

I should have chosen my words more carefully, I was a bit worked up. I don't think anyone is actually wishing for more death in Florida I think that the polarization we currently experience makes news sources want to promote stories that make their team look good and downplay stories that make their team look bad (or the other team look good). There is bias in what stories are told and what stories are not told. There has been a stream of hit pieces about Florida not taking it seriously enough or Florida being a ticking time bomb or Florida mismanaging things and much fewer articles (on those sites) about how NY f'd up.

Look at this Slate article for instance

Why Did Florida Avoid a Coronavirus Disaster?

The tone of that article is terrible and the conspiracy theories in the comments are worse. There are many more like it out there. I check everything from Salon and Slate to Breitbart and Reason (and plenty in between) because I want to get all sides of things even if I find some of the articles on the sites infuriating. I see definite patterns in the way this is reported depending on the political affiliations of the source. That is all I'm saying.

 

[gerebgraus]

Not unheard of for people, even doctors to put profits above human life.
GOP fronts 'pro-Trump' doctors to prescribe rapid reopening

You are not reading the article. The point is that if we limit ourselves to optimize for health and life lockdown also kills and damages people. That damage is extensive. To claim that profit vs. life is dogmatic.

 

[dfwatt]

I should have chosen my words more carefully, I was a bit worked up. I don't think anyone is actually wishing for more death in Florida I think that the polarization we currently experience makes news sources want to promote stories that make their team look good and downplay stories that make their team look bad (or the other team look good). There is bias in what stories are told and what stories are not told. There has been a stream of hit pieces about Florida not taking it seriously enough or Florida being a ticking time bomb or Florida mismanaging things and much fewer articles (on those sites) about how NY f'd up.

Look at this Slate article for instance

Why Did Florida Avoid a Coronavirus Disaster?

The tone of that article is terrible and the conspiracy theories in the comments are worse. There are many more like it out there. I check everything from Salon and Slate to Breitbart and Reason because I want to get all sides of things even if I find some of the articles on the sites infuriating. I see definite patterns in the way this is reported depending on the political affiliations of the source. That is all I'm saying.

I guess I experienced the tone of that Slate piece somewhat differently. I don't think it clearly came up with an explanation for why Florida's numbers were better than expected, and it looked at the possibility that climate was an issue, that they did a somewhat better job than some other states protecting the elderly, and that perhaps their numbers were not as good as they looked. I'd say the truth is somewhere in the mix of those factors and I throw in the fact that there are relatively few multi-generational families in Florida. Lots of adults live either in isolation or with one other person and it's been shown that this also limits the spread.

 

[golfcart]

I guess I experienced the tone of that Slate piece somewhat differently. I don't think it clearly came up with an explanation for why Florida's numbers were better than expected, and it looked at the possibility that climate was an issue, that they did a somewhat better job than some other states protecting the elderly, and that perhaps their numbers were not as good as they looked. I'd say the truth is somewhere in the mix of those factors and I throw in the fact that there are relatively few multi-generational families in Florida. Lots of adults live either in isolation or with one other person and it's been shown that this also limits the spread.

The begin the article with:

"DeSantis, for his part, spouted off false information about the virus as he resisted increasingly urgent calls from experts and local leaders to take action."

They ended the article with:

"So we should be careful when talking about Florida’s success. When we’re talking about DeSantis’ “victory lap,” we’re talking about a triumph over dire projections."

It sounds to me like they want to put a cocky governor in his place rather than actually report on what Florida did right or wrong and actually try to understand what lessons could be taken. Opinions vary, as do biases that may influence those opinions... but that is how I read it.

 

[dhanson865]

I mentioned the rumor in a prior post, now confirmed grocery store just a couple of miles from my house

Kroger: Three workers test positive for coronavirus at Cedar Bluff store in Knoxville
3 employees positive for COVID-19 at Cedar Bluff Kroger
Three employees at Kroger in Cedar Bluff test positive for COVID-19


Today's Knox County COVID-19 update. 48 active cases (up 14 from yesterday). 313 recoveries (no change). 366 positive tests overall. 2 currently hospitalized (no change).

Not shown on the graph below are the reopening stages. We just opened up to phase 2 right before this weeks spike. Phase 1 was May 1st and Phase 2 was May 22nd. I'd say there should be 3 trend lines, one for each phase.

 

[SageBrush]

Is that the wall around the Northeast to keep all the cases out of the Southern states or a different wall?

I'm glad we agree that a wall is a superb idea

 

[dfwatt]

I'm glad we agree that a wall is a superb idea

Is that the Wall that separates real 'Muricans from furiners, or that one that separates the American brain from common sense?

 

[Bad Dolphin]

People also seem to think if you get COVID-19 you die or you have the sniffles. Even after clearing the virus many people still haven't fully recovered months later.
South Korea, Japan, and China all have a lot of public transit and have managed to get it under control. There's hope that NYC will as well.


There's a lot of info out there saying that PCR tests are only about 80% accurate (though I think this has a lot to do with the skill of the person collecting the sample). Also, you don't test positive until a few days after becoming infected. I think the countries that plan on keeping the virus out are all quarantining people for 14 days in government run facilities right now. I would think that Hawaii's best option would be to try to become part of a "travel bubble" with COVID "free" countries. It's not clear if they'll be able to keep it form getting reintroduced from the mainland though.

 

[SageBrush]

Is that the Wall that separates real 'Muricans from furiners, or that one that separates the American brain from common sense?

The only thing that can save the "South" from its own stupidity, trumperism and religious fervor is a vaccine, and I doubt it will be available in quantity before 2021.

The only good news is that fat zombies get around in vehicles, so a low wall is enough. It is going to be quite a political fight though when states with Covid-19 under control look to restrict air travel from zombie states.