@Papafox -
responses in bold.
There is no inconsistency. His odds of survival if NOTHING is done for someone of his age are 90%.
90% eh? If it was you, would you take the roll of the dice on 90% survival? I sure wouldn't. Instead, I'd do everything in my power to stop the disease before it progressed into the serious battle within the lungs. Right now, I haven't seen a treatment more adept at preventing that progression than using HCQ, an antibiotic, and zinc. Show me one scientific study done on patients who were given HCQ and zinc early in the disease that indicates the treatment is without value. Studies that exclude zinc are of zero value in this discussion. Zinc is an essential ingredient in the successful treatment of Covid 19 with HCQ and it's the missing ingredient again and again in studies.
YOU AGAIN miss the point. HCQ, with AZTH or not, with Zinc, or not, does NOT affect baseline survivability. I don't HAVE to prove that Zinc helps or hurts, the burden of PROOF is on those people like YOU. Basic scientific method requires you to disprove the null hypothesis.
And lets be real here, because HCQ is SO BAD in terms of the side effect profile, no one is going to try it in a cocktail for COVID-19 when we have things we know improve morbidity and mortality. There is no conspiracy here, it's simply a BAD DRUG. It was a BAD DRUG before COVID-19, it was a BAD DRUG before Trump came into office, and it continues to be a BAD DRUG. Adding in other components that may or may not help doesn't change that.
Those odds DO NOT improve with HCQ.
I notice you left out the word "zinc" in this reply. Zinc is an essential ingredient in the cocktail. You have no basis to say this about the cocktail with HCQ and zinc because you cannot produce a study that backs your position. Studies that lack zinc or are given to patients already in the advanced stages of the disease are of no value for our discussion.
The study you want is on-going:
Study: Hydroxychloroquine doesn't prevent Covid-19 infection if exposed
Specifically, the WHO study which is ongoing has said the following, and it doesn't mince any words:
"There was no further benefit among patients who chose to take zinc or vitamin C."
I know you have an EMOTIONAL attachment to this drug, but I don't. I'm not biased against it, I simply KNOW the side-effect profile of the drug. This is NOT a drug with the side-effect profile of aspirin. I'm about the coldest, most harsh, hard-data person you will ever (not) meet. The only real thing that pushes my buttons is stupidity, and there is a @#$% ton of that in this thread by people that want to promote things they are emotionally attached do, but that the data do not support.
There you go again, belittling your opponent by calling his position emotion-based. Please, stick to facts and logic and attempt to exclude emotion and inappropriate digressions from your replies.
But you ARE emotionally attached to this. So much so that you refuse to consider BETTER, CHEAPER alternatives that have completed clinical trials and PROVEN to reduce morbidity and mortality. So now who is biased?
Simply put, the data to support HCQ as a treatment for ANY phase of COVID-19 is simply NOT THERE.
Let's consider this statement.
Nobody has done a controlled random test of HCQ with zinc yet. Retrospective studies are the best we have to go on right now, and they're suggesting that the cocktail that contains both HCQ and zinc is VERY effective at preventing the progression of the disease IF GIVEN EARLY.
Wrong - see above about WHO study in progress.
LETS BE CLEAR - in studies where there is a MARKED, POSITIVE EFFECT, we would have had preliminary data showing that by now (we saw this with dexamethasone and remdesivir). The researchers are always re-running the stats to see if anything statistically significant pops up. Because nothing pops up, it means if there is an effect, it is going to be INCREDIBLY SMALL.
The data that it does MORE HARM than good is there.
Wrong. If anywhere near 10% of patients who took Hydroxychloroquine for lupus or arthritis died after 5 days of the treatment, then you would have a point. The reality is the risk is extremely small for this low dose of HCQ given over five days. Granted, the inclusion of azithromycin increases the arrhythmia threat, but the combined drugs don't pose more than 1/10 of 1% of a risk over 5 days, and we know that number is likely way too high. In contrast, a 10% chance of dying from Covid 19 if it progresses to advanced levels is a very serious threat. Again, this is a question of balancing risks, and many, many doctors would opt for the minor risk with HCQ and azithromycin versus the severe threat of COVID 19 progressing to advanced stages in an older patient.
WRONG - I've posted the data from 10s of thousands of people using HCQ (see image below), and the Hazard Ratio is VERY CLEAR. The HR is so bad that the only things with an HR AS bad as being on HCQ for COVID-19 is having a pre-existing heart condition (arrhythmia or congestive heart failure) - THAT'S BAD AND WITH ANY NORMAL STUDY WOULD BE AN INSTANT SHOW STOPPER. Anything with HCQ in it puts people at risk. The people we treat with Lupus (we don't use HCQ for arthritis anymore, haven't for a VERY long time since there are much better biologics out now) do undergo routine cardiac screening while on the drug.
Those are simply the facts, like them or not be damned. Furthermore, you keep misinterpreting those retrospective studies you are so fond of. If you ACTUALLY read the conclusions of the authors, they say MORE studies (prospective, randomized control studies) should be undertaken to look at HCQ further. Those prospective, randomized control studies have been done, at least enough with 10s of thousands of people and the data for them so far, and they show that HCQ doesn't work.
This is the mistake you keep making again and again. You are grouping HCQ studies with studies of HCQ, azithromycin, and zinc (especially with zinc). Those studies that exclude zinc are worthless because zinc is an absolutely essential ingredient in the cocktail. The HCQ allows the zinc into the cells. Without zinc, the treatment loses its effectiveness.
I'm no making a mistake, YOU KEEP MISSING THE BIGGER POINT - because HCQ has a bad side-effect profile, EVERY study that has it in it as an ingredient is starting in the hole in terms of potential harm to patients due to the bad side effect profile.
RETROSPECTIVE studies are ONLY designed to give you candidates and ideas to sus out further. NEVER are they used for medical decision making, BECAUSE they are ALWAYS full of confounding variables. THAT is the LEAP you keep making, treatment from RETROSPECTIVE, OBSERVATIONAL (i.e. non-interventional) studies is VERY incorrect.
We both agree that we need to get beyond a retrospective study and to a serious random trial with placebo or alternate treatment. Nonetheless, it's the best we have to go on at present. The authors of the study are not saying the retrospective study is without merit. They're saying the data strongly show that HCQ when used with zinc early in the disease progression is compelling enough that it should inspire a controlled study. Until that controlled study come out, if it ever does, the retrospective study is the best we have.
See above, the WHO re-started your prized study 2 months ago. We have yet to see any positive data from it (not a good sign).
Dexamethasone can easily be given as an outpatient (I agree with you on remdesivir), so that kills your outpatient argument for HCQ being the only thing that can be done. Dexamethasone is also FAR more prevalent a drug than HCQ, and cheaper too. It's also just one of many corticosteroids that could be prescribed (prednisone, prednisilone, etc. would all be viable alternatives to dexamethasone that work through the same
Here are two problems with your argument. First, an anti-inflamatory such as dexamethasone is primarily focused on promoting survival by minimizing the problems within the lungs as the disease progresses to more advanced stages. By contrast, the HCQ and zinc cocktail is best at preventing the evolution of the disease from reaching that battle in the lungs. Once a patient is experiencing shortage of breath, it's time to get him on remdesivir and dexamethasone, we both agree on that. Unfortunately, there's a shortage of remdesivir and some states such as Pennsylvania are holding lotteries to see who gets the remdesivir. A better outcome would be to reduce the number of patients who need hospitalization in the first place, and the HCQ and zinc cocktail appears to be the best solution so far. Again, I say appears to be because I'm basing my statement off a retrospective study rather than a controlled study. Why don't we both agree that what's necessary is a controlled study of HCQ, azythromycin, and zinc administered early and judged against a placebo or an alternative treatment? I'm saying
the study by Scholz, Derwand, and Zelenko is so compelling it's time to get this study underway.
What you want is a vaccine. You are not going to find a magical drug to prevent infection by a virus that has spent eons evolving to infect cells. Hate to burst your bubble, but that's just the fact of it.