Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

On the subject of school reopening, monitoring like this might be a good way to assess the level of reopening to target. Apparently it is easy and works fairly well. Can be used in general for a lot of surveillance, I would think. You really don’t want any virus!
https://twitter.com/larrybrilliant/status/1292156408415129600?s=21
https://twitter.com/larrybrilliant/status/1292156408415129600?s=21
https://twitter.com/larrybrilliant/status/1292156408415129600?s=21
However, unfortunately Trump’s EO doesn’t provide any money for schools so we are pretty much f***ed coming and going. In many places there simply won’t be the ability to maintain open schools. They are destined for failure (in some places) unfortunately.

 

[madodel]

On the subject of school reopening, monitoring like this might be a good way to assess the level of reopening to target. Apparently it is easy and works fairly well. Can be used in general for a lot of surveillance, I would think. You really don’t want any virus!
https://twitter.com/larrybrilliant/status/1292156408415129600?s=21
However, unfortunately Trump’s EO doesn’t provide any money for schools so we are pretty much f***ed coming and going. In many places there simply won’t be the ability to maintain open schools. They are destined for failure (in some places) unfortunately.

Biobot's Poop-Centric COVID-19 Research - The Daily Show with Trevor Noah (Video Clip) | Comedy Central

Michael Kosta talks to Biobot Analytics co-founder Newsha Ghaeli about her company's national campaign to fight America's coronavirus pandemic by studying samples of human excrement.​

 

[cwerdna]

That likely eliminates most public schools in the US. With lower budgets and the likely need to spend more on substitute teachers (since it’s likely more teachers and staff will be going to call in sick), I can’t imagine any school having the means to go the distance. Many public school teachers still are buying their own supplies.

Edited to add:
The Southern might as well just have a hug it out fest.
The leaders in Georgia are just messed up. Can’t fix stupid.
I’ve heard of school districts in the South prohibiting teachers and staff from commenting on social media about any potential lack of precautions. That itself is controversial. But, now schools suspending students who take to social media about the lack of school’s precautionary measures? I mean, jeez.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/educ...wp_main&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook

Georgia student who posted photo of a crowded school hallway and called it 'good and necessary trouble' no longer suspended - CNN
COVID: Georgia school district makes 250 students, staff quarantine
A school district in Georgia says enforcing masks is impractical. But it already enforces a lengthy dress code.

 

[alloverx]

From the Washington Post,

Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms, why?

 

[eevee-fan]

From the Washington Post,

Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms, why?

In May, we thought it was 80% asymptomatic ...
New Study Shows the Extent of Symptom-Free Coronavirus Spread

 

[cwerdna]

Georgia student who posted photo of a crowded school hallway and called it 'good and necessary trouble' no longer suspended - CNN
COVID: Georgia school district makes 250 students, staff quarantine
A school district in Georgia says enforcing masks is impractical. But it already enforces a lengthy dress code.

Days after photos of packed hallways go viral, Paulding high school reports 9 COVID-19 cases

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Days after photos of packed hallways go viral, Paulding high school reports 9 COVID-19 cases

It’s like they are willfully ignorant of how this disease spreads. They’re saying to check for all the symptoms on kids and not send them to school if they’re sick. Obviously that’s not going to work.

Totally unbelievable (well, technically it is totally believable and expected since that is how we roll). They’re not going to be able to keep schools open without a LOT of fast testing, and with community spread basically cut off.

Looks like they’re likely f**ked. It’ll be interesting to see how this goes. I would expect at least 50 students to have it by the end of this week but maybe they’ll get lucky. Presumably there are at least 5 other asymptomatic students who will be wandering the halls again next week. Should be good times.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

In May, we thought it was 80% asymptomatic ...

I’m pretty sure that article was met with extreme skepticism here. Could not be that high (due to S Korea).

I’m a bit surprised at the current 40% estimate, would have guessed closer to 25%, but I guess we’ll see.

 

[eevee-fan]

Ah... good old Las Vegas Control Group.

No Mask Nevada protesters rally in northwest Las Vegas

 

[TEG]

US Officials: Russia Behind Spread of Virus Disinformation

'Reckless stupidity:' British 'anti-maskers' protest against the mask rule, call it 'mind-controlling device'

 

[renim]

This looks increasingly like a lot of raciocination designed to obfuscate the benefits of mask wearing. And it's grossly contradicted by the Public Health storyline of countries that have been able to get this under control. Masks are a critical piece of breaking transmission chains, obviously not the only component of a viable strategy but a critical one nonetheless. Any other framing of that looks like you are trying to suggest that masks are really just overrated and we should dispense with all this hoopla about masks.

Is that what you're really trying to say? Because that's what it looks like. And if that's the message, that's actually undermining Public Health. If that's not what you're saying maybe you need to think about what your saying and how your packaging it and clean up the misleading phrasing.

In Victoria, masks became compulsory on 19th July, although fines would be delayed for 2 days. Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Face coverings mandatory for Melbourne and Mitchell Shire

the daily case rise continues what is effectively a linear trajectory up to 2nd August. where is reaches a 7 day average of 530, which is 65% higher than when mandatory masking started. Statement On Changes To Melbourne’s Restrictions | Premier of Victoria


so why didn't masks work, simple compensatory action

around the time masking became compulsory, voluntary testing started its decline..

and so, cases kept rising and it seems to have taken a draconian state of disaster with a curfew plus lockdown to deal with the covid19.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

so why didn't masks work, simple compensatory action

around the time masking became compulsory, voluntary testing started its decline..

Masks alone aren’t likely enough, and other interventions and restrictions are necessary. Also all interventions tend to have 2-3 week delays until they are noticed in the data.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

US Officials: Russia Behind Spread of Virus Disinformation

'

Pretty sure they and other foreign actors are involved in many ways. This was mentioned here as a likely possibility months ago as I recall. It’s a low cost high reward activity, and there is no shortage of useful idiots (one in particular) to use to their advantage.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I guess I’m so dense I didn’t really understand the strategy. Hit me like a lightning bolt this evening. Cases have been flagging recently, so it does make sense to give things a bit of juice with some carelessly executed school reopenings.

Nice feature is that they can be phased in carefully over a few weeks to avoid too sudden an increase in cases.

Other than all the death, it seems like the United States is leading the world in the push for herd immunity, and it’s working out very very well. The slow burn is a bit too slow, but hospitals seem to be mostly fine. Soon we’ll be able to use our superior exposed herd to our strategic advantage in the world.

Unfortunately in my herd, the immunity is going very poorly; I don’t know anyone in my work or social circles who has tested positive! That’s the great thing about school reopening - it really does mix things around and we’ll be able to get some nice spread into some new populations in the coming weeks, as the kids bring it home. The heterogeneity of the population and their behaviors is a real obstacle to herd immunity, and causes all sorts of problems with the modeling, and it’s great that we can use schools now as the great equalizer.

It really is like the final piece of the puzzle. COVID is solved.

 

[dfwatt]

View attachment 574079

In Victoria, masks became compulsory on 19th July, although fines would be delayed for 2 days. Department of Health and Human Services Victoria | Face coverings mandatory for Melbourne and Mitchell Shire

the daily case rise continues what is effectively a linear trajectory up to 2nd August. where is reaches a 7 day average of 530, which is 65% higher than when mandatory masking started. Statement On Changes To Melbourne’s Restrictions | Premier of Victoria


so why didn't masks work, simple compensatory action
View attachment 574080
around the time masking became compulsory, voluntary testing started its decline..

and so, cases kept rising and it seems to have taken a draconian state of disaster with a curfew plus lockdown to deal with the covid19.

This seems like a strange argument that you're making. Masks don't work because people don't do the full range of necessary actions that we know from epidemiology are required to break transmission chains. It's breaking transmission chains that's critical. Masks are part of that but not any form of a total solution/bullet proof protection. No one's ever said that. So you're knocking down a straw man. As for non-compliance with the other critical components such as social distancing, quarantining when sick/covid-19 positive and other forms of responsible behavior, they break down due to the same covid-19 minimization / denial, and libertarianism that causes people not to wear masks. It's really all of a piece. So it seems that you're having trouble seeing the forest for all the trees?

 

[dfwatt]

From the Washington Post,

Forty percent of people with coronavirus infections have no symptoms, why?

Cross reactivity of T Cell populations due to Prior coronavirus exposure. Not this coronavirus but another coronavirus where in the S or Spike protein had enough homology to the spike protein on covid-19 to allow recognition (or at least that's the current thinking and evidence). Even if they don't have antibodies this means they in a sense have a huge head start in the race between the immune system and the pathogen.

Keep in mind that symptoms are mostly due to the activation of the innate immune system which absent immune recognition is what does the initial attack on any pathogen. The Adaptive immune system is much quieter, and capable of beating infections without lots of disruptive (and unpleasant) inflammation. So if your immune system has a partial recognition of covid-19 , it still gets in through ACE 2 receptors, still makes copies of itself (and enough copies that you're shedding virus and contagious) but it's squelched by a more effective process namely the more targeted adaptive immune response (antibodies, T cells, and B cells)

 

[JRP3]

so why didn't masks work, simple compensatory action

A 2 week delay in results seems about right. People infected in the days before the mask order will keep showing up in future testing.

 

[madodel]

A 2 week delay in results seems about right. People infected in the days before the mask order will keep showing up in future testing.

How long after schools start will it be before we see large spikes? 2-3 weeks? Will it take longer before adults show up in the ER since kids may mostly just be vectors?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

How long after schools start will it be before we see large spikes? 2-3 weeks? Will it take longer before adults show up in the ER since kids may mostly just be vectors?

I think it’ll be two to three weeks. That’s in the more heavily affected areas with the more negligent/denialist re-openings. The degree of spike will depend on community spread in the area.

As has always been known (though there sure has been plenty of misinformation, clearly evidence has been overwhelming since March that kids spread and contract the disease), kids both get sick (mildly) and spread the virus readily. So we’ll see reports of sick students and staff quite quickly. Asymptomatic rates appear to not be particularly age dependent (I would like more analysis on this), but severity of symptoms certainly is.

I think it’s likely that pooled saliva testing or similar will be necessary to keep schools open (in addition to many other measures of course, but frequent molecular or antigen testing for every individual is an absolute must everywhere). In NY and NYC I think this could work given lower levels of community spread right now. But it definitely will be difficult pretty much everywhere. Antigen tests may not work due to false positives. Pooled PCR probably better.

No school will be able to successfully reopen in the US without testing, unless they happen to be in an area with extremely low community spread (a local transmission rate which is a low number in this table, below 1 - don’t know whether there is any such location in the US). I estimate 1-5 daily cases per million at a local level will be workable in general (as long as testing is done every few days, of course).

The algorithm is: ensure no cases at the school through testing. Recheck every few days. In case of positive test, close school entirely for two weeks, then reopen (with prescreening through testing of course, with results returned prior to reopening). That’s where the Georgia schools are going wrong. They should now be closed. Also they should be testing everyone with instant result tests (or six-hour molecular tests).

Overall, it’s a pretty straightforward procedure. Lots of opening and closing of schools, but that is just the way it goes.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

That’s where the Georgia schools are going wrong. They should now be closed.

Guess the superintendent must be reading TMC. They took my advice! Who knew this thread would be the clearinghouse of all rational COVID advice? Unfortunately the thread also includes the advice of a bunch of loons.

https://twitter.com/chrisjosewsb/status/1292564766100279296?s=21