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The problem is that graph does not look like the graphs by region posted earlier today in the Investor thread by Karen Rei, which shows the number decreasing in the most affected Chinese province, and every other area being very small. So it appears that the peak has been reached and is declining.Not liking that the total confirmed graph looks similar to the TSLA graph of the past six months.
If GM reopens their China plant on the 9th may be a good indicator for Tesla on the 10th. Not really tradable over the weekend but a possible indicator at least. Coronavirus damages China's auto industry as outbreak worsens (article from Tuesday) They have the earliest reopen date that I have seen, and government agencies on the 13th.
Buying under 750 today was the easiest trade of my life. Would be awesome to see continued suppression of the virus over the weekend and factories reopening.
Yes! I really hope our friends in China can resume their lives soon and stop the casualties.Preliminary data is looking really good for today (the 7th), assuming they don't update the numbers tomorrow (it's currently early on the 8th in China). We don't have a breakdown for Hubei for the 7th, unfortunately, but we have this: "China's National Health Commission reports 625 new cases and 4 new deaths. Their locations have not yet been disclosed..." Hubei alone was 2447 yesterday, and 2987 the day before.
Yes! I really hope our friends in China can resume their lives soon and stop the casualties.
Thank you for your charts by the way, I was mid way trying to create something similar(the correct word is probably "inferior") when yours popped up!
Unsure where they got this data from but maybe this is more accurate for the day?As an update: I don't actually believe that said 625 numbers are accurate. I did some cross-checking, and there's more than 625 cases in non-Hubei provinces. I think it's an obsolete figure. We'll have to wait for tomorrow to see how many new cases there actually were in Hubei today.
Though we can't update the graphs with Hubei in them, we can still update the non-Hubei graphs for today.
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Unsure where they got this data from but maybe this is more accurate for the day?
source: Coronavirus Update (Live): 34,394 Cases and 720 Deaths from the Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
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Curious for example(s)I always chuckle when someone writes this kind of a thing about a non-western government - knowing how much of the deep and widespread propaganda and lies have come out about western governments over the past decades. Not just innocuous lies/propaganda either - things that probably resulted in a million deaths.
China shutdown:
It is under appreciated internationally how badly run most domestic enterprises are and how hand-to-mouth they tend to be from a cashflow perspective.
I’ve seen examples of industrial companies with enterprise values in the region of half to a billion dollars go bust because of similar length shutdowns (sudden pollution control measures surrounding internationally high profile events in Beijing).
It is the norm for companies of this size to juggle far too many projects at once, with long term assets almost always funded by short term finance rather than equity or long term (or project) debt. Future operating cashflow is pledged away to working capital financers, often with very aggressive coverage ratios. And quite ordinarily for far longer than the true working capital cycle, to maximise financial leverage.
So it doesn’t take much of an interruption to production to tip the boat over. Even when production resumes, staff are expected to work without pay and supplier and debt obligations get casually defaulted on, without any credible recovery plan being presented.
You then get to the question of what happens next. If there are any, international working capital financiers normally run for the door, especially so if they’re holding independent security such as domestic bank guarantees.
The domestic banks quite often try to cut funding lines as well but then the communist board places pressure on executive management and a bankers meeting will take place, organised by the local party man.
Ordering the banks to lend new money to repay defaulting facilities is typical for those the local communist party want to save or at least wind down in an orderly way. But this is not ideal from a macro allocative efficiency perspective and slowly suffocates the balance sheets of those banks, preventing them from doing new lending to more efficient enterprises.
The interesting thing about this shut down is that it’s been so widespread, covering not only traditional industrial hubs in the likes of Henan, Hubei, Hunan, Shandong etc but also Shanghai. This is relevant because industrial groups (run by a single family) very often raise additional leverage through Shanghai (and brass plate Hong Kong / Singapore) trading companies, which may formally be unrelated to the wider group but held through trust or family members / business connections, wrapping their fates together.
With a rub of luck China will open again for business this week. Because it cannot be understated how serious the macro impact could be if the shut down stretches to the end of the month.
None of which changes Tesla’s long term story, but it could end up being significant for global markets and economic conditions more generally if not resolved soon.
It looks like the playbook will be to downplay the kill rate of the virus. As is evident from the slowdown of death. The numerous ccp propaganda comparing the seasonal flu as killing more people suggests that they will be reopening everything and just let tbis thing run wild.
I'm sad to agree with you. Based upon the how spreadable it is days before symptoms appear it doesn't seem to make sense that it's slowing down. FWIW I've gone liquid on essentially everything, other than TSLA thank god. lol
It looks like the playbook will be to downplay the kill rate of the virus. As is evident from the slowdown of death. The numerous ccp propaganda comparing the seasonal flu as killing more people suggests that they will be reopening everything and just let tbis thing run wild.
So, it's now almost 2:30 AM in China. I've re-run the CSV generation script. As with yesterday, Hubei, which matters most, is late. :Þ It's possible that some of the other provinces, and some international areas, might get some subsequent updates alongside Hubei; if so, I'll make a note of them and regenerate the graphs once the Hubei data comes in. This should however be largely accurate for today.
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