Coronavirus

[KarenRei]

This source breaks out by province and city level data:
全国新冠肺炎疫情实时动态 - 丁香园·丁香医生

Hmm... all I see on that site is "total cases" data. Total cases is irrelevant; it's new cases that matter. Do you have a daily-updated "new cases" source w/intl. cases that's better than bnonews.com's data?

One can convert total cases data to new cases, but you'd have to mirror it at least once daily, save the mirror, and then subtract the daily versions from each other. Not sure it's worth the effort; I wasn't seeing anything particularly enlightening about any specific province apart from Hubei.

 

[EVCollies]

This is fake news.

I hope you are right but please check this at about 8:00

Medical Journals and the 2019-nCoV Outbreak


There is concern about the patients with minimal symptoms ability to spread disease.

 

[SageBrush]

SHOCK BREAKING NEWS

The bug has a new name: Covid-19

That should be good for a conspiracy theory or three. Paging @trump

 

[mblakele]

A ray of hope in the coronavirus curve
A downward trend in new cases in China suggests that the virus might have peaked

[...]

Trying to forecast the trajectory of a new virus is complex, with scant initial information about how infectious it is. Several scientists made valiant attempts based on early data from China. Some warned that it might not peak until May, but that was before China implemented strict containment measures. The more pessimistic ones now look too gloomy. Cheng-Chih Hsu, a chemist at National Taiwan University, plugged different scenarios into a simple model for estimating the spread of epidemics (the incidence of daily infections typically resemble bell curves, with slightly fatter tails as transmissions peter out). The tally of confirmed cases so far closely fits a seemingly optimistic forecast by Zhong Nanshan, a Chinese respiratory expert, who said on January 28th that transmissions would peak within two weeks.

It is too early to rest easy. [...]​

The full article includes a chart of optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, next to current data.

 

[SageBrush]

I can imagine two main risks for re-emergence:

1. The population becomes complacent
2. Super-spreaders occur at newly re-opened factories where people work in close proximity

I don't think either will actually happen, but one of those two scenarios would likely be the cause(s) if it does

 

[KarenRei]

If an outbreak happens at a factory, odds are high that the whole factory will get shut down and all workers and their families quarantined.

So let's really hope that GF3 is not one of them! Thankfully, they've got a strict quarantine requirement for all non-local workers. And I can just imagine Tesla managers there constantly walking up and down the building rubbing Purell on the doorknobs and railings and whatnot

 

[SageBrush]

So let's really hope that GF3 is not one of them!

I got the impression that workers are being screened before entering the bldg. I presume anybody with the sniffles or any symptoms of early illlness of anything are sent home and tested. It is probably sound practice although I'm not sure if the workers will be honest. After all, they want to work and make money.

I hope Tesla has enough sense to pay anyone who calls in sick or is sent home, followed by quarantine and expeditious testing.

 

[jerry33]

If an outbreak happens at a factory, odds are high that the whole factory will get shut down and all workers and their families quarantined.

So let's really hope that GF3 is not one of them! Thankfully, they've got a strict quarantine requirement for all non-local workers. And I can just imagine Tesla managers there constantly walking up and down the building rubbing Purell on the doorknobs and railings and whatnot

I'd guess that the Tesla workers aren't packed together the way they are at Foxconn.

 

[SageBrush]

I'd guess that the Tesla workers aren't packed together the way they are at Foxconn.

Indeed. That would presumably be the reason they were allowed to open and Foxconn was not, but Karen is probably right that a sick worker found in the plant would lead to factory wide actions by the health authorities.

 

[Causalien]

Any biologist or virologist here looked at the DNA sequence results?

Can you confirm that the RNA goes throguh 3 transcriptions before making a copy of itslef?

And is it true that all strains of the virus found so far have 96% similarities?

By the way, asymptomatic transmissions has already been confirmed. Just not in a westeen world. The closest one should be the british super spreader. Or something similar to minimally symptomatic transmission.
What is happening is that week 3, patients symptoms disappear and seem to be headed for recovery, however, CT scans of the lungs show continued spread of pneumonia and continued shedding of viral load.

The british super spreader spread to a bunch of doctors and infected 6 clinics who in turn probably infected their patients. Which are the most vulnerable population. We are about to confirm if this virus can actually spread outside of asia.

 

[SageBrush]

Can you confirm that the RNA goes throguh 3 transcriptions before making a copy of itslef?

Coronavirus are RNA viruses. What are you trying to ask ?

And is it true that all strains of the virus found so far have 96% similarities?

The jump from zoonosis to human would be at the receptor level. Everything else would stay the same.

Disclaimer: My gravitas are fairly weak: physician with standard molecular biology course-work and some molecular diagnostics research from years ago.

 

[Wenche]

There is a big jump up in the reports for the last 24 hours.

 

[azaz]

with such a big number it's definitely gonna impact the markets tmrw and yet we are still not allowed to mention it in the stock's thread? makes no sense. it's literally one of the biggest macro factors right now

 

[SageBrush]

^^ There has been a change in case confirmation protocol that is expected to increase the number of confirmed cases this week.
I don't know more details.

In the olde days, PCR amplification followed by electrophoresis resulted in a pattern. The protocol change talked about implies a less strict (higher sensitivity, lower specificity) threshold.

This will shift total case numbers but the trends we have seen the last few days remain valid.

 

[DanCar]

Hmm... all I see on that site is "total cases" data. Total cases is irrelevant; it's new cases that matter. Do you have a daily-updated "new cases" source w/intl. cases that's better than bnonews.com's data?

One can convert total cases data to new cases, but you'd have to mirror it at least once daily, save the mirror, and then subtract the daily versions from each other. Not sure it's worth the effort; I wasn't seeing anything particularly enlightening about any specific province apart from Hubei.

Historical data link:
实时更新：新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情地图

 

[KarenRei]

Big update in Hubei... and it renders all of my graphs thusfar ruined. But I imagine a number of people here considered it inevitable I'll do a TL/DR at the end:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml

With the deepening of understanding of new coronavirus pneumonia and the accumulation of experience in diagnosis and treatment, in view of the characteristics of the epidemic in Hubei Province, the General Office of the National Health and Health Commission and the Office of the State Administration of Traditional Chinese Medicine issued the "Diagnosis and Treatment Plan for New Coronavirus Infected Pneumonia (Trial (Version) "adds" clinical diagnosis "to the case diagnosis classification in Hubei Province, so that patients can receive standardized treatment according to confirmed cases as early as possible to further improve the success rate of treatment. According to the plan, Hubei Province has recently conducted investigations on suspected cases and revised the diagnosis results, and newly diagnosed patients were diagnosed according to the new diagnosis classification. In order to be consistent with the classification of case diagnosis issued by other provinces across the country, starting today, Hubei Province will include the number of clinically diagnosed cases into the number of confirmed cases for publication.

From 02:00 to 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) , of which: 13436 cases in Wuhan, 37 cases in Huangshi, 26 cases in Shiyan, and 13 cases in Xiangyang. Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province , including: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City. 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases) , including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.

As of 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province has reported a total of 48206 cases of new coronary pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) , of which: 32994 cases in Wuhan (including 12364 clinically diagnosed cases) and 911 cases in Huangshi (including clinical 12 cases were diagnosed), 562 cases in Shiyan City (including 3 clinically diagnosed cases), 1101 cases in Xiangyang City, 810 cases in Yichang City, 1431 cases in Jingzhou City (including 287 clinical diagnosis cases), and 927 cases in Jingmen City (including clinical diagnosis) 202 cases), 1065 cases in Ezhou City (including 155 clinically diagnosed cases), 2874 cases in Xiaogan City (including 35 clinically diagnosed cases), 2662 cases in Huanggang City (including 221 clinically diagnosed cases), and 534 cases in Xianning City (including 6 clinically diagnosed cases), 1160 in Suizhou, 229 in Enshi (including 19 clinically diagnosed cases), 480 in Xiantao City (including 2 clinically diagnosed cases), and 362 in Tianmen City (including 26 clinically diagnosed cases) There were 94 cases in Qianjiang City and 10 cases in Shennongjia Forest District.

A total of 3441 patients were discharged from the hospital. The province has a cumulative total of 1,310 cases, including 1036 cases in Wuhan (including 134 cases of clinically diagnosed cases), 9 cases in Huangshi City, 1 case in Shiyan City, 13 cases in Xiangyang City, 11 cases in Yichang City, and 23 cases in Jingzhou City. There were 24 cases in Jingmen City, 30 cases in Ezhou City, 49 cases in Xiaogan City, 58 cases in Huanggang City, 7 cases in Xianning City, 14 cases in Suizhou City, 4 cases in Enshi Prefecture (including 1 case of clinically diagnosed deaths), and 16 cases in Xiantao City. There were 10 cases in Tianmen City and 5 cases in Qianjiang City.

At present , 33,693 patients are still being treated in the hospital , of which 5647 are critically ill and 1437 are critically ill. They are all receiving isolation treatment at designated medical institutions. There were 9028 suspected cases, 3317 were excluded that day, and 6,126 were concentrated and isolated. A total of 158,377 close contacts were tracked, and 77,308 people were still under medical observation.

TL/DR version:

• There's a ton of new cases "today", but they're not actually all cases from "today", and the ones that are from today are measured by a much less strict measure than the previous ones.
• This is IMHO the first time we've seen a sub-Hubei breakdown, and it's amazing how much the disease is specifically in Wuhan, not just Hubei broadly.
• We don't know how today actually compared to yesterday, and we won't know how tomorrow's numbers compare to today's numbers. But after that we should be able to reestablish trend lines.
• The main reason we do comparisons with today's numbers to today's is that they seem to have a typo in their text: "13332 clinically diagnosed cases" is listed as both the daily confirmed cases, and the total confirmed cases. It clearly can't be both. :Þ

Annoying. But perhaps inevitable.

 

[SageBrush]

^^ This is one reason why tracking mortality from all cause Pneumonia has less uncertainty. You give up some lag time and scope information but you gain fidelity in estimates of the epidemic trend.

 

[Darkfox021]

Big update in Hubei... and it renders all of my graphs thusfar ruined. But I imagine a number of people here considered it inevitable I'll do a TL/DR at the end:

http://wjw.hubei.gov.cn/fbjd/dtyw/202002/t20200213_2025581.shtml



From 02:00 to 24:00 on February 12, 2020, Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases) , of which: 13436 cases in Wuhan, 37 cases in Huangshi, 26 cases in Shiyan, and 13 cases in Xiangyang. Cases, 26 in Yichang, 321 in Jingzhou, 231 in Jingmen, 204 in Ezhou, 123 in Xiaogan, 264 in Huanggang, 9 in Xianning, 31 in Suizhou, 26 in Enshi, 20 in Xiantao There were 69 cases in Tianmen City and 4 cases in Qianjiang City. There were 242 new deaths (including 135 clinically diagnosed cases) in the province , including: 216 in Wuhan, 3 in Huangshi, 1 in Xiangyang, 3 in Yichang, 2 in Jingzhou, 2 in Ezhou, and Xiaogan There were 4 cases in Huangshi City, 4 cases in Huanggang City, 1 case in Xianning City, 2 cases in Suizhou City, 1 case in Enshi Prefecture, and 3 cases in Xiantao City. 802 new hospital discharges (including 423 clinically diagnosed cases) , including: 538 in Wuhan, 17 in Huangshi, 11 in Shiyan, 6 in Xiangyang, 10 in Yichang, 22 in Jingzhou, and 11 in Jingmen 23 in Ezhou, 28 in Xiaogan, 89 in Huanggang, 19 in Xianning, 11 in Suizhou, 10 in Enshi, 5 in Xiantao, 1 in Tianmen, and 1 in Shennongjia Forest District.





TL/DR version:

• There's a ton of new cases "today", but they're not actually all cases from "today", and the ones that are from today are measured by a much less strict measure than the previous ones.
• This is IMHO the first time we've seen a sub-Hubei breakdown, and it's amazing how much the disease is specifically in Wuhan, not just Hubei broadly.
• We don't know how today actually compared to yesterday, and we won't know how tomorrow's numbers compare to today's numbers. But after that we should be able to reestablish trend lines.
• The main reason we do comparisons with today's numbers to today's is that they seem to have a typo in their text: "13332 clinically diagnosed cases" is listed as both the daily confirmed cases, and the total confirmed cases. It clearly can't be both. :Þ

Annoying. But perhaps inevitable.

Not totally ruined if they continue to report in this manner. Looks like ~1500 new cases under the old reporting method.

 

[KarenRei]

Not totally ruined if they continue to report in this manner. Looks like ~1500 new cases under the old reporting method.

Where'd you get the 1500? If you can be bothered to calculate an exact number, I'll make a new graph with it. I'll also start a new trend line with the looser diagnosis (in addition to the stricter one, if they continue to report it) standard going forward.

 

[Darkfox021]

Where'd you get the 1500? If you can be bothered to calculate an exact number, I'll make a new graph with it. I'll also start a new trend line with the looser diagnosis (in addition to the stricter one, if they continue to report it) standard going forward.

I bolded it in your post (if I'm understanding the change in counting procedure correctly), 1508:

Hubei Province newly added 14,840 new cases of pneumonia (including 13332 clinically diagnosed cases)