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An update of miscellaneous reports during the day. A curious observation: it's actually possible that there will be more Diamond Princess cases today than in all of non-Hubei China combined.

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Of the Diamond Princess cases, 85 of them are on the ship and 14 of them on a plane to the US (they tested everyone as a precaution to know who to have extra quarantine measures with; none of them were symptomatic).
 
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  • Informative
Reactions: Yuri_G
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The situation in Shanghai looks to have stabilized, close to half of the infected have recovered. There are some questions of the incubation time. We will have to watch closely, as the workers that went home from Chinese holidays last week, could be infected already (without knowing), hopefully not.
The chart is found at: Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
Source is: ncov-model – CSSE
I think it’s important at this point of time to follow the Japan data, as to find out how it may spread worldwide. Hopefully not.
 
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Also: People should not confuse a "deaths vs. recovered" ratio as being a mortality rate. Studies pin the mortality rate at a couple percent (and if you don't trust China, you can look at cases outside of China). Most cases of the disease are mild, even though it has the potential to be more serious than a seasonal flu.

Even in Hubei, where the disease was allowed to run rampant and the healthcare system was overloaded, at present there's 69270 people under medical observation, 4194 suspected cases, and 41957 cases in the hospital. But of those, 9117 are seriously ill and 1853 in intensive care, and only a minority of those will die. One shouldn't confuse "not been declared free of the disease" with "likely to die".
 
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From the video based on a wide scale study in China:
Case severity:
Mild: 81%
Severe: 14%
Critical: 5%

Fatality rate under 1% for those under 50.
Looks like 2% for 50-60
Then roughly doubles for each decade of age.
Pre existing conditions elevate the risk. Or from the flip side, no pre existing conditions lowers the risk.
Video says the spread rate has peaked in China, but could rebound with people returning from Holidays and shutdowns.
 
Also: People should not confuse a "deaths vs. recovered" ratio as being a mortality rate.
It's not a bad way to get an early estimate if deaths and recoveries take about the same amount of time. It will give you an inflated mortality rate estimate if deaths happen quickly while recovery drags on for weeks/months.

The other issue here is early cases didn't get the same treatment as now, both because Hubei hospitals were overwhelmed and because it was so new they simply didn't know how to treat it. Deaths vs. Recovered outside Hubei is probably a more useful ratio.
 
Hubei numbers are in today. The reported total was anomalously low (349) and appears to be an error. You can get a much more realistic total (907) by summing up the breakdown between areas in Hubei.

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International may still grow for the day. It's been on the upswing lately in mainly two countries: Japan and South Korea. Pretty good countries IMHO for disease control, at least.

Non-Hubei China continues to collapse. I'm thinking about maybe starting to reduce the number of provinces that I keep specific trendlines before - possibly even going so far as to only collect Hubei, Shanghai, and Other China - but then starting to add in specific countries of interest outside of China.

I still wonder about North Korea (they trade with China, and to a small extent, Russia... I don't recall whether there's currently active trade with South Korea). I doubt we'd know if it got there unless it went epidemic and they had to seek outside assistance. Their healthcare system is terrible outside specific areas, but they do have complete authoritarian control, so there is that. China, having an interest in not having an epidemic on its borders, would likely gladly supply appropriate medical supplies to its neighbor if it seemed there was a need. Currently, several to a dozen or so cases are reported in China's provinces that border North Korea, but it's not widespread there.

Anyway, back to the above graphs: I did go ahead and boldface the trendline for Shanghai, since it's of particular interest. Not much to see there, of course; the disease is almost absent in Shanghai.
 
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View attachment 512925 View attachment 512926 The daily reports from WHO, is worth to follow: Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation reports
Here is a snippet picture from the report, and one from; Coronavirus COVID-19 Global Cases by Johns Hopkins CSSE Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS Japan’s data in corner of the map.
The situation in Shanghai seems to be stabilizing.

  • The ArcGIS page remains useless, misleading, and should continue to be ignored.
  • I have no clue what WHO means by no new countries reporting cases. Iran reported its first two presumptive cases (and deaths) today.
 
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Reactions: jerry33
New format graphs! I'm really happy with them :) Hubei is in.

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Very happy with the continued fall in Hubei. Not so glad with the South Korea surge. Japan seems to be more or less stable in case incident rates; I think they'll have it under control soon. We might be finally running out of Diamond Princess cases, although it's hard to say this soon.
 
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