Coronavirus

[TMThree]

I like all the people downplaying the risk of the virus.

The Dr that first noticed the virus has died. He was 34.

So did this dr, one of over 1800 who've been recently infected.

武汉医生彭银华因感染新冠肺炎不幸去世 年仅29岁

29 year old Dr Peng Yin Hua is Respirologist (Lung doctor) and Intensivist (ICU doctor).

He contracted coronavirus while treating patients in a front line hospital in Wuhan.

He was initially admitted to hospital on Jan 25. His situation worsened on Jan 30 and was transfered to JinYinTan Hospital ( 金银潭医院) and unfortunately passed away on Feb 20,2020.

He was planning to get married in January but postponed his wedding due to the virus outbreak.

The wedding invites are still in his desk drawer.
​

The problem with this virus is that there is no immunity to it, and no herd immunity. It plays on a different level than flu. Additionally, even if it doesn't kill you, you can have severe heart, kidney, and liver damage. People who've contracted it twice have died from heart attack because of how it attacks ace2 receptors in those major organs.

 

[MC3OZ]

I like all the people downplaying the risk of the virus.

The Dr that first noticed the virus has died. He was 34.

So did this dr, one of over 1800 who've been recently infected.

武汉医生彭银华因感染新冠肺炎不幸去世 年仅29岁

29 year old Dr Peng Yin Hua is Respirologist (Lung doctor) and Intensivist (ICU doctor).

He contracted coronavirus while treating patients in a front line hospital in Wuhan.

He was initially admitted to hospital on Jan 25. His situation worsened on Jan 30 and was transfered to JinYinTan Hospital ( 金银潭医院) and unfortunately passed away on Feb 20,2020.

He was planning to get married in January but postponed his wedding due to the virus outbreak.

The wedding invites are still in his desk drawer.
​

The problem with this virus is that there is no immunity to it, and no herd immunity. It plays on a different level than flu. Additionally, even if it doesn't kill you, you can have severe heart, kidney, and liver damage. People who've contracted it twice have died from heart attack because of how it attacks ace2 receptors in those major organs.

View attachment 513257

That Taiwan News report has been around for a few days, and it hasn't been picked up by any other media outlet...

The number of new cases is the most important metric, if that continues to fall, that at least buys time to work on a cure/vaccine....

 

[Wenche]

New format graphs! I'm really happy with them Hubei is in.

View attachment 513244

View attachment 513245

View attachment 513254

View attachment 513255

View attachment 513238

View attachment 513239

View attachment 513249

Very happy with the continued fall in Hubei. Not so glad with the South Korea surge. Japan seems to be more or less stable in case incident rates; I think they'll have it under control soon. We might be finally running out of Diamond Princess cases, although it's hard to say this soon.

That is a better layout, but could you remove China from your chart number 2, to get a clear view of rest of the worlds development.

 

[KarenRei]

That is a better layout, but could you remove China from your chart number 2, to get a clear view of rest of the worlds development.

That's what chart #3 is

 

[Wenche]

That's what chart #3 is

You edited your chart after I posted my reply, thanks. I prefer Chart number 4 without China an Diamond Princess. It’s crucial in the coming weeks, to see the development outside China.

 

[Wenche]

52 new cases reported from Korea a few minutes ago. 코로나바이러스감염증-19 > 정보알림 > 가장 먼저 소식을 알려드립니다 내용보기 " 코로나바이러스감염증-19 국내 발생 현황 (2월 21일 09시) "

 

[TMThree]

Dr. Alavi works at the Kamkar hospital in Qom, Iran reports that over 20 patients have died from clinically diagnosed cases of #coronavirus at his hospital.

11 of 13 people quarantined at Nebraska Medical Center test positive


The Humboldt County Department of Health & Human Services Public Health
Branch has received confirmation from the California Department of Public Health
and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) of one case of
COVID-19 in a Humboldt County resident. A close contact who has symptoms is
being tested as well.

 

[Singer3000]

No obvious indicator here of the drama being peddled by some. Down to only 4 people in ICU now

 

[cwerdna]

Besides the effects on the travel business and factories Coronavirus news and live updates: Over 500 infected in outbreaks at prisons - CNN says

China's car market is getting crushed because of the novel coronavirus outbreak.

Passenger car sales plunged 92% through the first half of February, according to statistics from the China Passenger Car Association. The industry group blamed the coronavirus and the Lunar New Year holiday, and said it expects sales for all of February to fall 70%.

The association said the decline should be temporary, but added that the speed of the market's recovery depends on how local governments handle the public health crisis.

The massive decline is yet another indication of how damaging the coronavirus has been for the auto industry.

Earlier this month, China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers said that major automakers sold fewer than 2 million cars in the country in January -- an 18% plunge from a year earlier.

Billions in losses: Some analysts and state-run media have already said that the coronavirus fallout could cost the Chinese economy a few percentage points of growth.

In dollar terms, that could lose the country more than $60 billion.

Not sure if these has been posted already. They relate to auto plants closing (not necessarily in China) due to supply chain disruptions:
Hyundai halts Korea output as China outbreak fallout spreads
Coronavirus: Nissan to shut factory in Japan
Factbox: Carmakers close Chinese factories because of coronavirus

 

[SageBrush]

I was under the impression that China was including 'clinically diagnosed' into the covID-19 infection tally, but the WHO highlight reads as confirmed by lab diagnosis and not confirmed groups.

That strikes me as unfortunate. @KarenRei, any chance you can monitor the 'not confirmed' group ?

 

[KarenRei]

I was under the impression that China was including 'clinically diagnosed' into the covID-19 infection tally, but the WHO highlight reads as confirmed by lab diagnosis and not confirmed groups.

That strikes me as unfortunate. @KarenRei, any chance you can monitor the 'not confirmed' group ?

All I have to work with are the numbers that are released. If another data source starts releasing different numbers, I'll use them as well. Hmm... maybe I should break China up into multiple lines, for "suspected" and "confirmed".... will look into that possibility after work today.

(I hate it when criteria are changed... comparisons are only valid to the degree that standards are consistent)

Re, the above: if Iran shows evidence of sustained cases in today's update, I'll add in a trendline for them. I wouldn't be surprised if a whole bunch are ultimately found, as Iran probably wasn't looking hard for suspect cases until the two people died.

 

[cwerdna]

I didn't realize until tonight when I took a peek here that it seems the scope of this thread has expanded way beyond "TSLA Innvestor Discussons". It almost seems like this thread belongs in the off-topic area.

On that note, The world’s biggest phone show has been canceled due to coronavirus concerns (MWC) happened awhile ago. But, Coronavirus concerns push Facebook and Sony to skip the year's biggest gathering for video game makers (GDC 2020) is really recent and is being held in San Francisco. There was also Facebook canceled an annual San Francisco conference because of coronavirus concerns.

 

[KarenRei]

I didn't realize until tonight when I took a peek here that it seems the scope of this thread has expanded way beyond "TSLA Innvestor Discussons".

This thread exists to stop the main investor thread from being filled with COVID-19 discussions.

The fate of the virus influences Tesla. That's why people keep discussing it.

 

[Causalien]

That Taiwan News report has been around for a few days, and it hasn't been picked up by any other media outlet...

The number of new cases is the most important metric, if that continues to fall, that at least buys time to work on a cure/vaccine....

It is healthy to keep in mind that Taiwan currently has a hostile relationship with China. So they will do everything they can to smear China.

That said... Taiwan is probably our only line into transparency into China as the Taiwanese Government do not censor news and the Taiwanese has a pretty good spy network in China.

If we are to believe the claim in this news. The fact that the blood serum treatment didn't work on this 29 year old doctor means that no treatment works 100%. However, some do recover with the serum. Since we don't have double blind test trials, we can only say that the results are gray, but it doesn't mean we should discard the treatment.

I am personally leaning towards the fact that several governments are suppressing information in order to avert panic. The stealth cases should be blowing up all over the world in the following week as the 3~4week time counts down to where the virus start causing severe symptoms.

As far as we know, this is blowing up in Korea, Iran and Italy right now. I originally thought that south korea was doing a good job at tracing the cases, but I recently learned that they didn't stop flights from China. If you compare this to Singapore who has similar tracing and health care facilities, the difference is that Singapore closed its border to China.

So what prevented the hidden blow up of cases are: closing the border with China (and infected countries) + proper tracing of cases + a government who is transparent about the virus so that the citizens can take proper measures like wearing masks, and having proper quaratine procedures.

As to China suppressing the information. I am still leaning towards them fudging the numbers.

 

[SageBrush]

The problem with this virus

I'm sorry, but you are posting FUD and misinformation.

The damage from antibodies snippet you posted may be related to the Chinese attempt to transfuse sera from recovered patients into patients who are acutely, seriously ill but it is hard to tell since the layperson report is garbled. When problems occur in those therapies it is not the anti-COVid-19 antibodies that cause the problems. You can be almost positive though that endogenous antibody production is not the issue here.

This is a topic I am familiar with from my fellowship training in Transfusion Medicine and subsequent years as Director of the Plasmapheresis Program in my region of the US.

---
Repeat infection is much more likely to represent different COV strains rather than re-infection with the same strain.

There is more nonsense in your post but my willingness to spend my time answering hysterical BS is limited.

 

[Beltsbear]

The problem with this virus is that there is no immunity to it, and no herd immunity. It plays on a different level than flu. Additionally, even if it doesn't kill you, you can have severe heart, kidney, and liver damage. People who've contracted it twice have died from heart attack because of how it attacks ace2 receptors in those major organs.

View attachment 513257

This last paragraph is basically BS. It is a bad virus, and it is going to cause a ton of deaths, but there is still no firm evidence about re-infection (most cases reported as such are probably just not fully cured). There is something going on where a very small percentage of people are having heart problems. That may be related to drugs they were given, we just don't know.

 

[TMThree]

In retrospect, the CDC will soon be proven correct in its dire warning that repatriating a full plane of both infected and healthy individuals could be a catastrophic error, because it now appears that not only can the virus remain latent for as long as 42 days, 4 weeks longer than traditionally assumed, resulting in numerous false negative cases as infected carrier slip across borders undetected, but far more ominously, it now appears that the diseases can re-infect recently "cured" patients, because as Taiwan News reports, a Chinese patient who just recovered from the Wuhan coronavirus (COVID-19) has been infected for the second time in the province of Sichuan, according to local health officials.

 

[TMThree]

SageBrush. It's a news report and you marked it as disagree. Good luck with that.

 

[Causalien]

I'm sorry, but you are posting FUD and misinformation.

The damage from antibodies snippet you posted may be related to the Chinese attempt to transfuse sera from recovered patients into patients who are acutely, seriously ill but it is hard to tell since the layperson report is garbled. When problems occur in those therapies it is not the anti-COVid-19 antibodies that cause the problems. You can be almost positive though that endogenous antibody production is not the issue here.

This is a topic I am familiar with from my fellowship training in Transfusion Medicine and subsequent years as Director of the Plasmapheresis Program in my region of the US.

---
Repeat infection is much more likely to represent different COV strains rather than re-infection with the same strain.

There is more nonsense in your post but my willingness to spend my time answering hysterical BS is limited.

The fact that the virus has mutated into another strain is actually scarier. So far everywhere I've looked it says that the virus is not mutating making it easier to target. But if the virus is mutating like normal virus do.... We should soon be seeing a killer strain and a more benign strain. The killer strain will kill a lot of people while the benign strain will eventually win out in the end as it tones done the death rate before co-existing with us. But not before the killer strain wreck havoc.

 

[Causalien]

So far from what I've gathered. The street only priced in Coronavirus to disappear at the end of march. Or at least have a proven treatment to fight off the death rate.

If it seems like it is growing out of control and we go into April. Then this should be considered a black swan event. Prepare your portfolio properly.