Coronavirus

[Doggydogworld]

ED2: Looks like they expect to have the answer to whether Modena's vaccine is both safe and effective by July or August. According to Fauci.

First potential coronavirus vaccine arrives in US

Safe, yes. Effective, no. The Phase 1 trial includes a few dozen healthy patients, closely monitored for side effects. If shown to be safe they then run a larger Phase II trail to judge efficacy. That takes another six months or so. I don't know how they will judge efficacy in this case. Maybe they'll gather a high risk group like Wuhan health care workers and give half the vaccine and half a placebo? Running a trial on a few random hundred US citizens seems useless since both groups should end up with zero infections.

 

[KSilver2000]

There is not an abnormally long incubation period** (mean 5 days, range 2-14 days, a couple dubious outliers), and WHO strongly disagrees that asymptomatic transmission is responsible for any meaningful fraction of cases. And "new cases in countries" is an irrelevant metric. The problem right now is not enough cases in certain locations where you know they should be catching far more people.

** A typical flu or cold has a 2-3 day incubation period, so it's longer than average, but again, I wouldn't use the phrase "abnormally long".

I highly disagree.
Which particular source are you referencing as your gold standard?
There have been many small studies since with varying results. Just to provide an example, one study out of China showed an average incubation period of 14 days with a range of 2 to 24 days. It all depends on the epidemiological data collection method used. So far, not enough to get a solid handle of how this virus works.
Besides incubation period, what’s also important is the time delay between infection, onset of symptoms, voluntary admission into care facility, and any deaths while inpatient.

Even at 5 day incubation, that is twice as long as the regular flu. I don’t know if you have or have had infants or toddlers at daycare/preschool. As a parent, I get worrisome any time we receive mandatory notice that a classmate had some kind of communicable symptom. Because that means it has already been circulating beforehand. Five days would be a long time.

 

[Causalien]

What do you guys think about warmer weather slowing this virus down? So far all of the major outbreaks have been in cold weather areas (China/S.Korea/Japan/Iran/Italy). Hot weather areas have so far appeared to contain this (Singapore/Taiwan/S.E Asia)

There is some truth to warm weather. But that confidence is reduced by thailand and indonesia's non transparency.

Vietnam is a very good example. The whole country is hot. Northern Taiwan is cold while singapore... You get ac on the street from shops that keep tgeir door open whilst blasting ac at high.

 

[Causalien]

When you state that you believe there is at least one mutated strain, are you talking about a different virus fingerprint, or are you talking about just a benign change in a nucleotide? If the latter, you don’t have to wonder anymore. It happens from host to host.

I don't have expertise in the field, so there are many ways you can get me on technical terms. When I say a different strain, it means change in behaviour. Either targets, death rate or infection rate.

 

[plumazul]

... and WHO strongly disagrees that asymptomatic transmission is responsible for any meaningful fraction of cases. ...

Do you have a citation for this comment? Asymptomatic shedders with high viral load have been documented. We don't know how many, but to just dismiss the facts is not what we need right now.

EDIT: You provided a link on slashdot to this Datasheet at WHO, BUT it does not say what you claim it says. AND it's very old (month) which is well before papers were published describing asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infected patients. Do you have another link?

EDIT2: This is a very well done paper explaining the problem in detail.

 

[SpaceCash]

I don't have expertise in the field, so there are many ways you can get me on technical terms. When I say a different strain, it means change in behaviour. Either targets, death rate or infection rate.

That guy you're responding to is a long time dedicated FUDster, just fyi. I had him on ignore til today

 

[Wenche]

I really appreciate these charts @KarenRei thank you. Would it perhaps be possible for you to also include the first chart in table form with your updates so I can track the precise numbers?

I find this link very useful and accurate with updates in realtime: Coronavirus Update (Live): 82,791 Cases and 2,817 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Snippets:

 

[KSilver2000]

On the topic of Cov, one thing I want to vent is, "STOP buying up all the masks!" My local Home Depots are out of masks and respirator cartridges. Wearing a mask by itself out in public is not going prevent from catching a virus.

I can't do any woodwork at home without those masks, LoL.

The people who should be wearing a mask are those with cold/flu symptoms or with poor immune system.
And please cover when sneezing and coughing. We teach that to kids early on, at least some do. I can't tell you how many adults I see in the public not covering, even in this situation. That open sneeze some people do with head tilted down and to the side....gross.

Edit: The difference between trying to contain this virus in the US and China is that Chinese authority can mandate a broad quarantine lockdown.
In the US, you're just told to self quarantine as in this new incidence: 2 college students in Sacramento area exposed to coronavirus patient

 

[Wenche]

I find this link very useful and accurate with updates in realtime: Coronavirus Update (Live): 82,791 Cases and 2,817 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
Snippets:

 

[DanCar]

Title: Biologist Here: COVID-19 is much worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu. Comparable to Smallpox on Native Americans. Read more for my musings.
Has a list of references.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/faklo2/biologist_here_covid19_is_much_worse_than_the/
If you have trouble with that link you may have to accept the disclaimer at this link first:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/

 

[SageBrush]

EDIT2:

Oh for heaven's sake, you are relying on colonization by the bacterium Staph to support your CovID-19 fantasies.

Ridiculous

 

[Causalien]

That guy you're responding to is a long time dedicated FUDster, just fyi. I had him on ignore til today

Thanks a bunch. Internet ppl always sounds like they are experts.

 

[SageBrush]

Safe, yes. Effective, no. The Phase 1 trial includes a few dozen healthy patients, closely monitored for side effects. If shown to be safe they then run a larger Phase II trail to judge efficacy. That takes another six months or so. I don't know how they will judge efficacy in this case. Maybe they'll gather a high risk group like Wuhan health care workers and give half the vaccine and half a placebo? Running a trial on a few random hundred US citizens seems useless since both groups should end up with zero infections.

They will target a new outbreak area. If it was today it would be in Iran or Italy.

 

[Wenche]

I see that the virus is turning the market down. Updates are appreciated. Macro; the supply chains are not working well. I would very much like this tread to turn to how the Corona virus is interfering with the supply chain for Tesla.
What are the constrains for Tesla? What are the bottle necks? Please share.

 

[Beltsbear]

Title: Biologist Here: COVID-19 is much worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu. Comparable to Smallpox on Native Americans. Read more for my musings.
Has a list of references.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/faklo2/biologist_here_covid19_is_much_worse_than_the/
If you have trouble with that link you may have to accept the disclaimer at this link first:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/

You link to a quarantined reddit group. Reddit can be full of misinformation normally, but a quarantined reddit group is a group where the admins of reddit step in and say, this place really sucks, even for reddit.

anyhow, your post is full of information that you assert to be true but are just your best guesses. You for example say that immunity to the virus lasts 6 months. There is no way we could know that as of now.

 

[eloder]

I see that the virus is turning the market down. Macro; the supply chains are not working well. I would like this tread to turn to how the supply chain for Tesla is doing. What are the constrains for Tesla? What are the bottle necks? Please share

I don't think we've heard of any concrete evidence, though so far factories appear to be normally busy thanks to all the drone people. Tesla is more vertically integrated than other auto companies, so they would probably be hurt the least by disruption. But the impact of the rest of the market will hurt Tesla no matter what happens at least in the short term.

 

[Wenche]

I don't think we've heard of any concrete evidence, though so far factories appear to be normally busy thanks to all the drone people. Tesla is more vertically integrated than other auto companies, so they would probably be hurt the least by disruption. But the impact of the rest of the market will hurt Tesla no matter what happens at least in the short term.

Thanks, do you know any constraints of parts for the GF1?

 

[Wenche]

Title: Biologist Here: COVID-19 is much worse than the 1918 Spanish Flu. Comparable to Smallpox on Native Americans. Read more for my musings.
Has a list of references.
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/comments/faklo2/biologist_here_covid19_is_much_worse_than_the/
If you have trouble with that link you may have to accept the disclaimer at this link first:
https://www.reddit.com/r/Wuhan_Flu/

I think it’s better to post a screenshot, because bye clicking the link, you get the flow.

 

[KarenRei]

Daily graphs. Some restructuring.

As per request, I'm uploading it to a Google sheet here (will not be maintained):

COVID-19

Please report any errors detected. Note that Diamond Princess cases are credited to the Diamond Princess and not the country where the people were located at the time of diagnosis.

 

[DanCar]

You link to a quarantined reddit group. Reddit can be full of misinformation normally, but a quarantined reddit group is a group where the admins of reddit step in and say, this place really sucks, even for reddit.

You might want to join that group. I found it incredibly informative. Yes it is full of misinformation, on the flip side it is not censored. So it is up to the reader to decide the quality of the posts (does it have reliable references?). I find reddit has a problem with censorship and this particular group doesn't have that issue. I find it refreshing to read people's opinions, whether they are wrong or right and there is little place for censorship when people are sharing their thoughts.

anyhow, your post is full of information that you assert to be true but are just your best guesses. You for example say that immunity to the virus lasts 6 months. There is no way we could know that as of now.

Sorry, your wrong on a couple of fronts. You have assumed incorrectly that I'm the poster. I just found it interesting and posted here to see what other people think of it. I'm glad that the biologist took the time to share his thoughts. Seems people here get angry when people share their thoughts. Try lightening up and taken for what it is, not something authoritative, just someones musings as was put in the title. There are some references if you are after more authoritative info.