I think the US cases, from the Diamond Princess, that returned to the US are counted in the 60 they are showing now.
See - Coronavirus in the United States: Cases by State - Worldometer
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
I think the US cases, from the Diamond Princess, that returned to the US are counted in the 60 they are showing now.
See - Coronavirus in the United States: Cases by State - Worldometer
Ok. Now I really have to say WTF.
You found it interesting and just reposted it? But then you get upset and defensive when I point out that it is wrong? Someones 'musings' but they are passed off as an authority figure?
Again, there is tons of stuff in there that has zero basis in reality, such as the re-infection information. And no, there are no real references to back up the important stuff, like the re-infection part. Some of what he posts is true, but that is the hallmark of good disinformation.
plumazul
Member
IF that's what you got from that paper then YOU DIDN'T READ IT. And what do you mean by "my fantasies"?? I didn't conduct the research I'm citing, it was done by experts in the appropriate areas.
What is your problem? You haven't disputed ANY of the facts I'm posting, you just attack me. Stop acting like a angry child. If you have nothing meaningful to add to this thread, then just go away. Ridiculous!
Incredibly grim report in the Washington Post that paints a picture of a completely inept / corrupt US administration response involving repatriation of afflicted citizens. From bringing the exposed citizens home over the objections of the CDC to not giving the federal workers interacting with said citizens proper PPE over their ardent objections, it’s all here folks.
If this is the best the US can muster I have grave doubts about its ability to effectively contain the spread of this virus. Arguably its actions here were literally worse than doing nothing at all.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/
If this is the best the US can muster I have grave doubts about its ability to effectively contain the spread of this virus. Arguably its actions here were literally worse than doing nothing at all.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/heal...-coronavirus-evacuees-hhs-whistleblower-says/
Should of listened to my gut on this one, and bought puts against the market a month ago. Kinda disheartened that the all inclusive thread kicked this thread to the side, when it’s the major force shaping all stocks currently. A thread where so many posts seem, completely irrelevant,.
Moving on, I feel the vast majority of health care professionals have the same knowledge you do about this. Truth is no one knows. We are gathering data, but it is so new, that data might not extrapolate well. Personally, I feel in the coming weeks a pandemic will be announced by the WHO.
Either way, there will be major disruption of commerce. Most things will go down. What will go up? Hard to know. Amazon? ..as people will go out less and order more....Netflix..?
Health is wealth..and I sincerely hope this thing abates quickly with as little real, physical damage as possible. However , I personally feel the economic toll will be significant and linger at least the next few months.
For TSLA, I feel we will continue to fall, and would not be surprised to see it in the 500 range tomorrow.
Moving on, I feel the vast majority of health care professionals have the same knowledge you do about this. Truth is no one knows. We are gathering data, but it is so new, that data might not extrapolate well. Personally, I feel in the coming weeks a pandemic will be announced by the WHO.
Either way, there will be major disruption of commerce. Most things will go down. What will go up? Hard to know. Amazon? ..as people will go out less and order more....Netflix..?
Health is wealth..and I sincerely hope this thing abates quickly with as little real, physical damage as possible. However , I personally feel the economic toll will be significant and linger at least the next few months.
For TSLA, I feel we will continue to fall, and would not be surprised to see it in the 500 range tomorrow.
Singer3000
Member
I agree. The mods have done a monumental disservice to small investors on this forum and there remains a worrying “fingers in ears” mentality in the main thread to the very real economic risks unfolding. At least now they seem to be letting posts stay up there.
I feel there is a lot of panic in the market and while more countries are affected and I predict over time it will be in most countries the total number of currently ill is falling today again despite most reading the news believe the truth is the other way around.
Currently sick:
Peak rate: 58,672 (Feb 17th)
Today rate: 43,933 (Feb 28th)
The Coronavirus App
That rate is falling since 10 days now mainly driving by China as they simply had most of the cases. To reverse that number to an upwards trend we need tenths of thousands of net new cases from e.g. other countries which no one can excludes and may happen but would required its gets in some countries out of order.
Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth. Many said that a lot of people will be ill in China but not detected which was my assumption too but if thats true than sooner or later a larger group of people will get ill and will show up in the statistics in China but we don't see that in the data instead numbers are falling.
That currently sick rate may change if numbers explode in other countries but thats something most anticipate but we don't see in the data right now while its of course very early days for most countries. New cases outside of china have been yesterday about 950 and an increasing number and will likely increase further. In my opinion it may happen in some countries that have their health system not well prepared and don't put the right measures in place but again that are situations the WHO has been founded for. So if there is a out of order situation in some countries the internationally community would need to step up to help.
While the panic seems to be in full swing with politicians preparing people for the worst and putting emergency teams in place as well as cancelling certain events and putting border control or even denying some citizens to embark are good measures and IMO a reason to panic would be if they don't put that measures in place but I guess people work somehow the other way around
No surprise that the stock markets turn nuts with media reporting day and night about just that topic and many talk from a recession now painting a picture no one knows if it happens or not.
While Ark Invest decided yesterday in my opinion at the right moment to sell some Netflix at a high and buy Tesla the market is in panic and selling is in full swing. Its hard for people to thing rational if panic is around.
The Tesla supply chain is from what we can find not impacted at all. At least I could not find anything. If China continuous to do well it should be back to "normal" in the regions that had a lock down and the supply chain risk disappears.
The overall impact on th economies is a big unknown and that unknown is not price in with the highest possible rate. Many seem to overlook that even if the virus spreads wide that most infested have a very mild feel of illness with higher temp if at all. What I try to say is that you likely still can work isolated at home as many do already. Productivity will not be down to zero in my opinion and impact on the economy mitigated.
Still early days and time will tell.
Currently sick:
Peak rate: 58,672 (Feb 17th)
Today rate: 43,933 (Feb 28th)
The Coronavirus App
That rate is falling since 10 days now mainly driving by China as they simply had most of the cases. To reverse that number to an upwards trend we need tenths of thousands of net new cases from e.g. other countries which no one can excludes and may happen but would required its gets in some countries out of order.
Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth. Many said that a lot of people will be ill in China but not detected which was my assumption too but if thats true than sooner or later a larger group of people will get ill and will show up in the statistics in China but we don't see that in the data instead numbers are falling.
That currently sick rate may change if numbers explode in other countries but thats something most anticipate but we don't see in the data right now while its of course very early days for most countries. New cases outside of china have been yesterday about 950 and an increasing number and will likely increase further. In my opinion it may happen in some countries that have their health system not well prepared and don't put the right measures in place but again that are situations the WHO has been founded for. So if there is a out of order situation in some countries the internationally community would need to step up to help.
While the panic seems to be in full swing with politicians preparing people for the worst and putting emergency teams in place as well as cancelling certain events and putting border control or even denying some citizens to embark are good measures and IMO a reason to panic would be if they don't put that measures in place but I guess people work somehow the other way around
No surprise that the stock markets turn nuts with media reporting day and night about just that topic and many talk from a recession now painting a picture no one knows if it happens or not.
While Ark Invest decided yesterday in my opinion at the right moment to sell some Netflix at a high and buy Tesla the market is in panic and selling is in full swing. Its hard for people to thing rational if panic is around.
The Tesla supply chain is from what we can find not impacted at all. At least I could not find anything. If China continuous to do well it should be back to "normal" in the regions that had a lock down and the supply chain risk disappears.
The overall impact on th economies is a big unknown and that unknown is not price in with the highest possible rate. Many seem to overlook that even if the virus spreads wide that most infested have a very mild feel of illness with higher temp if at all. What I try to say is that you likely still can work isolated at home as many do already. Productivity will not be down to zero in my opinion and impact on the economy mitigated.
Still early days and time will tell.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
DDW is correct about phase I studies.
The goal you bolded is internal to the vaccine company. After all, no immune response, no reason to continue trials to gauge effectiveness.
Regarding the few reports of people getting re-infected, how does this work exactly? Don't these types of blood tests usually test for antibodies? I can't imagine doctors being so stupid that they haven't thought of this, but these cases didn't just get infected with the flu, got tested for corona, and tested positive for corona again because of previously made antibodies, right?
The genetic information of a coronavirus is stored in RNA. Reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) is used to diagnose patients. By sequencing Covid-19 (determined its genetic make-up, ACCTTTGGCC....) it is possible to make primers that stick onto these RNA strands. They will then add an enzyme (RNA polymerase) that will elongate the primer. What is being made is called copy DNA (cDNA), which they can then subsequently multiply until you have enormous amounts of it. That is how you determine if the virus is present in the patient.
Via antibodies its also possible, but it will require more time so RT-PCR is a better option at this time
I have just read a study that indeed indicates positive RT-PCR results in patients who have recovered. My guess is that the technique still picks up viruses which have remained inside the cell (antibodies do not enter cells)
Via antibodies its also possible, but it will require more time so RT-PCR is a better option at this time
I have just read a study that indeed indicates positive RT-PCR results in patients who have recovered. My guess is that the technique still picks up viruses which have remained inside the cell (antibodies do not enter cells)
bhtooefr
Active Member
I'm under the impression that the current tests are actually testing for coronavirus RNA, not antibodies.
The Accountant
Active Member
@KarenRei may be correct that Phase 1 trials will look for effectiveness.
Althought I was in finance, I worked at a Pharma company for 15 years and I can tell you this:
most Phase 1 trials are performed on healthy volunteers to assess safety (usually about 10-20 volunteers) but not all Phase 1 studies work this way. In Oncology, Phase 1 studies are conducted with patients with the disease the drug ls looking to treat. The reason for this is that usually these patients have exhausted all cancer treatments and are looking for option to live - safety is not a concern when you have 3 months to live. In addition, these drugs are usually very powerful and testing on healthy volunteers is difficult.
So if a drug being tested is in the primary care area (hypertension, etc), yes, helathy volunteers are used for phase 1. But if you have a severe disease, then Phase 1 could be conducted with the relevant patient base with effectiveness as a secondary goal. I have seen a trial with only Phase 1 results get approved by the FDA due to the effectiveness of the results. The FDA will require further studies and the approval can be withdrawn if the Phase 2 trial fails. I have also seen Oncolgy trials terminated at Phase 1 due to lack of efficacy.
I don't know the answer but perhaps in the case of the Coronavirus, these new drugs may be tested immediately on patients effected.
Perhaps we have a member that works in Research at at Pharma company that can weigh in on this.
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plumazul
Member
Yes, testing for antibodies will not tell you the current state of any possible infection, you must "see" viral particles in the patient. This is done by taking samples from nasal and lung secretions.
plumazul
Member
To confirm an active infection, virus particles must be found in the nasal, throat, lung secretions. Antibodies will only give you information on exposure.
Promising study published in Cell showing disruption in SARS-COV-2 reproduction in vitro using an existing drug already proved safe for human use.
New #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 paper just accepted at Cell! Cell entry depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and is blocked by a clinically-proven protease inhibitor. : COVID19
Apparently this drug, Camostat, has been studied and shown effective in mice against SARS and MERS for the same reason.
Protease inhibitors targeting coronavirus and filovirus entry - ScienceDirect
New #SARSCoV2 #COVID19 paper just accepted at Cell! Cell entry depends on ACE2 and TMPRSS2 and is blocked by a clinically-proven protease inhibitor. : COVID19
Apparently this drug, Camostat, has been studied and shown effective in mice against SARS and MERS for the same reason.
Protease inhibitors targeting coronavirus and filovirus entry - ScienceDirect
It's nice to see all of the progress with antivirals; it increasingly looks like there will be one or two on the market within a few months (in contrast to how it may be quite some time before mass vaccination could begin). E.g. the ability to reduce the mortality rate to that of a seasonal flu (or less) would be a very big thing.
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I feel there is a lot of panic in the market and while more countries are affected and I predict over time it will be in most countries the total number of currently ill is falling today again despite most reading the news believe the truth is the other way around.
Currently sick:
Peak rate: 58,672 (Feb 17th)
Today rate: 43,933 (Feb 28th)
The Coronavirus App
That rate is falling since 10 days now mainly driving by China as they simply had most of the cases. To reverse that number to an upwards trend we need tenths of thousands of net new cases from e.g. other countries which no one can excludes and may happen but would required its gets in some countries out of order.
Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth. Many said that a lot of people will be ill in China but not detected which was my assumption too but if thats true than sooner or later a larger group of people will get ill and will show up in the statistics in China but we don't see that in the data instead numbers are falling.
That currently sick rate may change if numbers explode in other countries but thats something most anticipate but we don't see in the data right now while its of course very early days for most countries. New cases outside of china have been yesterday about 950 and an increasing number and will likely increase further. In my opinion it may happen in some countries that have their health system not well prepared and don't put the right measures in place but again that are situations the WHO has been founded for. So if there is a out of order situation in some countries the internationally community would need to step up to help.
While the panic seems to be in full swing with politicians preparing people for the worst and putting emergency teams in place as well as cancelling certain events and putting border control or even denying some citizens to embark are good measures and IMO a reason to panic would be if they don't put that measures in place but I guess people work somehow the other way around
No surprise that the stock markets turn nuts with media reporting day and night about just that topic and many talk from a recession now painting a picture no one knows if it happens or not.
While Ark Invest decided yesterday in my opinion at the right moment to sell some Netflix at a high and buy Tesla the market is in panic and selling is in full swing. Its hard for people to thing rational if panic is around.
The Tesla supply chain is from what we can find not impacted at all. At least I could not find anything. If China continuous to do well it should be back to "normal" in the regions that had a lock down and the supply chain risk disappears.
The overall impact on th economies is a big unknown and that unknown is not price in with the highest possible rate. Many seem to overlook that even if the virus spreads wide that most infested have a very mild feel of illness with higher temp if at all. What I try to say is that you likely still can work isolated at home as many do already. Productivity will not be down to zero in my opinion and impact on the economy mitigated.
Still early days and time will tell.
This is a situation where it is not about the numbers. Last week it was about the numbers because there was a single large pool of infection near Wuhan that was in the process of being contained. Almost all international cases were traced directly to China and most often a single province. The risk of a worldwide outbreak depended directly on the numbers in China.
This week the state of affairs shifted dramatically. Other pools of infection have shown up that will make global containment and eradication difficult if not impossible. South Korea and Italy will likely make progress in containment but the effects won’t be visible in the numbers immediately. There are cases that are already infected but not identified yet - these are locked in and many times more than the daily number that’s published. And Iran seems determined to ignore this virus enough to be a long term and large reservoir of this disease.
So right now the decreasing numbers you cite don’t match up with worldwide pandemic risk which is increasing. That’s not to say everyone should worry too much. This is not Ebola - a similarly contagious disease with a 50% mortality rate. It’s in the same ballpark as flu. As an individual take normal flu season precautions. Government efforts to slow the spread are still worthwhile even if containment is impossible because the more it can be slowed the less saturated the healthcare system will be at the peak.
Munich Re one the worlds largest back insurance companies does not see a severe risk at this stage.
CFO, today: "Before this becomes a major material loss for Munich Re, however, there must be "hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide"." He does not assume this will happen.
Munich Re sieht bisher keine hohen Belastungen durch Corona-Folgen
CFO, today: "Before this becomes a major material loss for Munich Re, however, there must be "hundreds of thousands of deaths worldwide"." He does not assume this will happen.
Munich Re sieht bisher keine hohen Belastungen durch Corona-Folgen
To be fair, if you've been following this thread, it was also cautiously optimistic or outright positive up until just a few days ago. Some people voiced concerns early, but most did not until this week. I think the first warning bell sounded here was the possibility that Iran dropped the ball--and that was based on unsubstantiated reports for a little while. Going only off of this thread wouldn't have given you a selling opportunity, just the same opportunity that blindsided the market recently. (Sentiment and knowledge among friends and family shifted right about the same time as this thread--and that's natural given that the past few days of development have marked a clear turning point in containment).
I began repositioning my portfolio late last week in a minor level (began de-leveraging, closed out short positions, etc.). But even with my advanced gut feeling that things were about to tank and tank fast, it took me a few days to reposition everything as big new developments hit the market and market sentiment.
This could have very easily become a non-event like other major disease outbreaks. It still possibly could six months from now. You don't know when market sentiment will say "Hey, this is a non-event" and suddenly skyrocket the market again. This has always been the case since China first announced strict containment measures. The only thing that changed is the probability shifted from optimistic to pessimistic and in a rapid timeframe.
Please keep in mind that even selling Tesla at today's pre-market numbers (600s) represents a number bigger than before February, if you need to sell for peace of mind. Also keep in mind that if you buy and hold, you'll probably still end up with a great amount of profit 2 years from now even in recession. Timing the market usually results in losses, if you're not on margin or leveraged. Keep in mind Tesla is far more vertically integrated than others with a fantastic year ahead of them, and eventually money will start looking to re-enter.
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