I feel there is a lot of panic in the market and while more countries are affected and I predict over time it will be in most countries the total number of currently ill is falling today again despite most reading the news believe the truth is the other way around.
Currently sick:
Peak rate: 58,672 (Feb 17th)
Today rate: 43,933 (Feb 28th)
The Coronavirus App
That rate is falling since 10 days now mainly driving by China as they simply had most of the cases. To reverse that number to an upwards trend we need tenths of thousands of net new cases from e.g. other countries which no one can excludes and may happen but would required its gets in some countries out of order.
Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth. Many said that a lot of people will be ill in China but not detected which was my assumption too but if thats true than sooner or later a larger group of people will get ill and will show up in the statistics in China but we don't see that in the data instead numbers are falling.
That currently sick rate may change if numbers explode in other countries but thats something most anticipate but we don't see in the data right now while its of course very early days for most countries. New cases outside of china have been yesterday about 950 and an increasing number and will likely increase further. In my opinion it may happen in some countries that have their health system not well prepared and don't put the right measures in place but again that are situations the WHO has been founded for. So if there is a out of order situation in some countries the internationally community would need to step up to help.
While the panic seems to be in full swing with politicians preparing people for the worst and putting emergency teams in place as well as cancelling certain events and putting border control or even denying some citizens to embark are good measures and IMO a reason to panic would be if they don't put that measures in place but I guess people work somehow the other way around
No surprise that the stock markets turn nuts with media reporting day and night about just that topic and many talk from a recession now painting a picture no one knows if it happens or not.
While Ark Invest decided yesterday in my opinion at the right moment to sell some Netflix at a high and buy Tesla the market is in panic and selling is in full swing. Its hard for people to thing rational if panic is around.
The Tesla supply chain is from what we can find not impacted at all. At least I could not find anything. If China continuous to do well it should be back to "normal" in the regions that had a lock down and the supply chain risk disappears.
The overall impact on th economies is a big unknown and that unknown is not price in with the highest possible rate. Many seem to overlook that even if the virus spreads wide that most infested have a very mild feel of illness with higher temp if at all. What I try to say is that you likely still can work isolated at home as many do already. Productivity will not be down to zero in my opinion and impact on the economy mitigated.
Still early days and time will tell.