Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

Via antibodies its also possible, but it will require more time so RT-PCR is a better option at this time

Identification of antibodies indicates exposure.
Some exposures are active disease, some are historical. Also note that the beginning of infectivity is before antibody detection.

In the olde days the IgM antibody class was serially monitored over a few weeks and a multi-fold increase over time was considered presumptive evidence of active infection but these days the bug itself (or parts of it) is tested for.

 

[SageBrush]

It occurs to me that the US is more vulnerable to CovID-19 than its OCD status suggests due to the large fraction of uninsured and underinsured in the population. Will those people seek early testing ? Agree to hospitalization ?

The lack of universal public health services, and erosion of Obamacare in the US is an obvious vulnerability. Other than being able to take for granted that trump will whine that it is not his fault, I wonder how the ruling Repukes are going to act in the face of rich people's health being dependent on poor people's health.

 

[jerry33]

Other than being able to take for granted that trump will whine that it is not his fault, I wonder how the ruling Repukes are going to act.

Probably depopulation leaves more for us. That seems to be the Conservative view.

 

[phantasms]

I wonder how the ruling Repukes are going to act.

Probably just bring a healthy baby into Congress, hold it up, and say "See everyone, this baby is healthy, there's nothing wrong. All this panic is about Bernie. I'll be over here fighting corruption." Drops baby in a trash can and walks away.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth.

I'm not ready to say China is lying, but:

1. Locking 3500 people on a cruise ship caused rampant spread. Reports indicate rapid spread in prisons. But locking 57 million people in high rise apartment buildings stopped COVID-19 dead in it's tracks? Maybe, but...

2. Locking down 4% of the population for a month is a direct 0.3% hit to annual GDP. A minor blip for a 6% (officially) grower like China. But the ripple effect was far more severe. They can't expand this lockdown. So maybe it's better to turn Hubei into a giant Diamond Princess while other provinces play whack-a-mole like the rest of the world?

3. Even if the national government wants good numbers, are they getting them? Or did cities get the memo that honest reporting will lead to a crippling lockdown?

4. There was a mass pre-lockdown exodus from the Wuhan area. My gut feel is the relatively few who escaped overseas seem to have a much higher infection rate than the million or so who escaped to other places in China.

5. Lockdowns slow the spread of seasonal flu and other illnesses in addition to COVID-19. The overall flow into hospitals (and morgues) might actually decline even if COVID-19 cases were still spiking.

6. Outside of China the prevailing opinion among non-politician epidemiologist types is that we've moved from containment to mitigation. Absent Trump's 'miracle', we're just buying time. Why would they feel this way if China has achieved containment?

None of these arguments convince me China is lying, but I'm starting to lean that way.

 

[SageBrush]

World Health Organization emphasizes hand washing, not face masks:

That is because people typically do not use face masks effectively.

However, they CAN be very effective if used appropriately. YMMV

 

[SageBrush]

I always chuckle when someone writes this kind of a thing about a non-western government - knowing how much of the deep and widespread propaganda and lies have come out about western governments over the past decades.

I'm open to suggestions: is there ANY day that trump is not lying ?

 

[Cosmacelf]

Probably just bring a healthy baby into Congress, hold it up, and say "See everyone, this baby is healthy, there's nothing wrong. All this panic is about Bernie. I'll be over here fighting corruption." Drops baby in a trash can and walks away.

You know, I could say that you've got the wrong party and it is Democrats that want partial birth abortion and kill babies, but that would be political (although correct).

Can we knock off the political talk here? This post too, of course, once the mods delete the other ones.

 

[Remus]

Some claim China numbers are wrong which I doubt as they learned their lesson that it does not get better if they won't tell the truth. Many said that a lot of people will be ill in China but not detected which was my assumption too but if thats true than sooner or later a larger group of people will get ill and will show up in the statistics in China but we don't see that in the data instead numbers are falling.

I was among the earliest several to sound the alarm in the main thread about the virus since I don't trust the early numbers from China.

But now I am more optimistic. I think the numbers from China are much better due to the fact the Chinese government has lost the battle in censoring the information about the outbreak since the death of Li wenliang.

 

[phantasms]

You know, I could say that you've got the wrong party and it is Democrats that want partial birth abortion and kill babies, but that would be political (although correct).

Can we knock off the political talk here? This post too, of course, once the mods delete the other ones.

My bad. I didn't correctly read the room. Agree to disagree my Tesla friend.

p.s. I love your avatar.

 

[Remus]

Locking 3500 people on a cruise ship caused rampant spread. Reports indicate rapid spread in prisons. But locking 57 million people in high rise apartment buildings stopped COVID-19 dead in it's tracks? Maybe, but...

This is more than a stretch. The high-rises in China do not have centralized air-conditioning that circulating air into different homes. The residents don't share food from the same cafeteria. You believe what you want to believe.

 

[jerry33]

That is because people typically do not use face masks effectively.

However, they CAN be very effective if used appropriately. YMMV

How many people have been taught to use face masks effectively (I certainly haven't). Also some face masks are so itchy that you can't wear them for more than five minutes.

 

[SageBrush]

As per request, I'm uploading it to a Google sheet here (will not be maintained):

Thanks. I also use Google Docs and find the raw data helpful.

Would you be willing to post or send me the daily new cases for each country ?
I'm happy to host a Google Docs table I will keep updated.

Feel free to PM me to make a convenient to you arrangement.

 

[Remus]

3. Even if the national government wants good numbers, are they getting them? Or did cities get the memo that honest reporting will lead to a crippling lockdown?

You underestimate the power of social media in China. Li wenliang didn't die in vain. The government has lost the censoring battle on this front and there are many cases of reporters reporting problems caused by slow moving government officials and the officials got fired because of that.

There are definitely under reporting as they can't test that many people. But I just don't believe China is capable of continue to lie deliberately.

 

[SageBrush]

How many people have been taught to use face masks effectively (I certainly haven't).

Google is your friend .... if you are so inclined. It is not rocket science.

 

[SageBrush]

There are definitely under reporting as they can't test that many people.

The last I read, ~ 100k a day can be tested

 

[KSilver2000]

That is because people typically do not use face masks effectively.

However, they CAN be very effective if used appropriately. YMMV

The people who really need to use a mask are those that are feeling sick. For the general public, using a mask alone is not going to prevent any infection unless you’re wearing gloves and eyewear as well, and decontaminating every time you come back home. For goodness sakes, most Americans prefer to wear shoes inside the home.

The US and Western Europe are definitely ready to treat the sick IMO, but I highly doubt the US is prepared for an epidemic, let alone an outbreak.

No doubt the US has the best facilities in the world to care for Coronavirus patients. However, what we don’t have is the same government or culture that would contain the spread of an epidemic.
In China, the government can mandate a broad lockdown quarantine of large regions. The sick are rounded up or forced to stay in their homes, and the local heads and police monitor the streets for people who are not allowed outside. In some places, there are signs outside residences notifying the public of an infected. Such extreme containment preventative measures, IMO, would not fly with Americans in this era.

My $0.02.

 

[plumazul]

How many people have been taught to use face masks effectively (I certainly haven't). Also some face masks are so itchy that you can't wear them for more than five minutes.

Well, the CDC is making a small effort. The proper use/fitting of an N95 mask is something taught to first year medical students and I suppose all others in healthcare training but not to the general public, yet. But it can be difficult when dealing with the general public.

 

[SageBrush]

For the general public, using a mask alone is not going to prevent any infection unless you’re wearing gloves and eyewear as well, and decontaminating every time you come back home.

Wrong. Perhaps dead wrong if you remain stubborn.

I spent my working life around highly infectious diseases, as did my colleagues. I know different.

 

[KSilver2000]

Wrong. Perhaps dead wrong if you remain stubborn.

I spent my working life around highly infectious diseases, as did my colleagues. I know different.

Visit a public restroom. What % of people proper wash their hands? Occasionally, I see people not even bothering to wash hands. (I specifically remember those at work and make sure not to interact closely, lol).

Edit: Do you walk into a lab wearing just a mask covering your mouth and nose.