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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
The suspicion is that there is at least one undetected disease pocket on the west coast, probably in Washington. There was one case in California also connected to someone with no known cases or travel to infected areas.
I honestly do worry about the US; I don't expect Iran-level bungling, but two things about the US bother me:
- Many people are afraid to go to the doctor's out of fear of getting stuck with huge medical bills
- In my experience, the work culture in the US is that you're expected to go to work if you're not so sick that you can't do your job - rather than being a culture of "stay home so you don't contaminate your coworkers".
Sorry, you’re right about chloroquine.
I wrote my response while reading a research study comparing chloroquine with Remdesivir in vitro when you posted that. So, for a sec, I mistakenly thought you were talking about Gilead’s drug.
Anyways, the study concluded that, in vitro, Remdesivir was slightly more effective against a Cov strain with similarly low cytotoxicity. There were other drugs tested that showed higher efficacy but with higher cytotoxicity. So, more tests were recommended on those potentials.
Then that brings the discussion to the always debated ethical topic of who is treated with which drugs and at what prices. More than one drug that has efficacy but at different levels with difference in associated costs.....
It appears the infectious rate is too slow in the developed world to ever come to the point of a shortage of hospital equipment. Also, the death rate is at the lower end range of original possibilities and should only continue to improve. I don't expect massive travel bans or lockdowns of large cities like I thought was a 50/50 shot 3 days ago. Screening will be fierce, but productivity should continue. I'm buying stocks tomorrow morning after selling some Thursday and Friday, tesla included. Cheers yall.
SageBrush
REJECT Fascism
Then I have some rights in your eyes
I can well imagine Covid-19 becoming an endemic disease in China that is controlled without the current extreme measures so long as the population seeks early diagnosis and is compliant with isolation. And admit it, few people thought it even possible that China could stop the epidemic, let alone reverse it in a month.
My wife's employer is telling everyone to work from home, as a precaution.
For many businesses (not all, obviously) almost everything can be done remotely so I expect this to spread as the number of reported infections grows. Our federal government is a complete trainwreck but businesses have a strong incentive to keep everyone healthy so hopefully that will help to some extent.
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Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I was pretty early in preparing for the Pandemic so I managed to get my hands on several masks to test. In the beginning, I saw a lot of report of studies that says wearing masks are ineffective etc. Now I am starting to see report that says just 80% compliance with proper mask fitting and wearing procedure eliminates influenza risk while 50% compliance reduces it significantly. Whatever, I am going to wear it even if it only reduces the chances by 5% (which was what the initial report says)
Most of the n95 masks I tried on are from 3m. The ones with filter, the ones without filter, the ones meant for surgical staff and homedepot ones etc. Normal surgical mask that is being mass produced anywhere really doesn't help at all as the air leaks in/out from the side. The 3M masks, when properly fitted doesn't really allow heavy breathing as its surface area is pretty small (I am athletic so I need a lot of air). Even the ones with a valve and due to its rigid construction and round shape, the fitting around your mouth comes loose pretty easily.
Recently I finally started using the ones I bought from AlphaProTech and these masks fits really well. It has metal wire all around and an excess area around the chin where you can pinch the metal wire to make a tight seal. They also have an excess of surface area so breathing is easier. (Still not enough for me, but good enough if you take shallow steady breath and are not exerting yourself). If you are shopping for n95 masks. Try going for those if you got the connections.
When SHTF and nobody will bat an eye or freak out (some people are uncomfortable seeing people wearing masks because they think you have some type of disease) or laugh at you (this is still happening now when I go outside with my mask) and everyone have started wearing masks. It is time to bring out the big guns. I personally don't have the full mask. But a 3M 6000 half mask fits my nose and mouth perfectly and have a really tight seal. Breathing was also not an issue.
Disclaimer: Used to own APT stocks but sold most after a 10x runup.
Most of the n95 masks I tried on are from 3m. The ones with filter, the ones without filter, the ones meant for surgical staff and homedepot ones etc. Normal surgical mask that is being mass produced anywhere really doesn't help at all as the air leaks in/out from the side. The 3M masks, when properly fitted doesn't really allow heavy breathing as its surface area is pretty small (I am athletic so I need a lot of air). Even the ones with a valve and due to its rigid construction and round shape, the fitting around your mouth comes loose pretty easily.
Recently I finally started using the ones I bought from AlphaProTech and these masks fits really well. It has metal wire all around and an excess area around the chin where you can pinch the metal wire to make a tight seal. They also have an excess of surface area so breathing is easier. (Still not enough for me, but good enough if you take shallow steady breath and are not exerting yourself). If you are shopping for n95 masks. Try going for those if you got the connections.
When SHTF and nobody will bat an eye or freak out (some people are uncomfortable seeing people wearing masks because they think you have some type of disease) or laugh at you (this is still happening now when I go outside with my mask) and everyone have started wearing masks. It is time to bring out the big guns. I personally don't have the full mask. But a 3M 6000 half mask fits my nose and mouth perfectly and have a really tight seal. Breathing was also not an issue.
Disclaimer: Used to own APT stocks but sold most after a 10x runup.
Then you should know how ridiculous of a statement it is to say that this virus can be eradicated in China.
Would you mind sharing a link to the particular study or studies that conclude those numbers?
Humans don't grasp exponentials or S curves that well. I'll stop being worried when new cases in the developed world stop growing exponentially. Keep in mind the difference between us and Italy is 9 days; between us and Iran is 2 months (at current level of seriousness), between us and China pre-welding people into apartment buildings 3 months.
Don't you all remember how Tesla doubled it's entire fleet in one year after delivering cars for several years? Same thing will happen here in the US without severe and drastic containment measures, only the doubling time is measured in days without containment.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Funny enough, when I first came to US - couple of decades back - first thing I noticed was people don't want you to come to work if you have a cold. May be its just in tech.
One good thing about having small kids is - we are very tuned to keeping away from people who are not well & to use a regimen that prevents sickness from spreading within the family.
It looks like in my state the virus is around for about 12 weeks. But with few diagnosed severe cases - this means either they didn't diagnose a lot of severe cases or the cases aren't turning severe, mostly. If its the latter, US may be able to bumble through this crisis - if its the former, we should expect a few months of regular shocks.
I’ve responded to someone about just this the other day (maybe in another thread). Honestly, I think the attitude just depends on who your managers are and what the work culture is. The biggest difference I’ve experienced working in different size companies and industries is your direct manager’s view on taking time off, and whether the company has a limited or unlimited PTO policy.
Unlimited PTO: people tend to take days off less for relaxation purposes, but much more willing to call in sick at any moment. (BTW, a friend of mine is head HR at a startup in SF, and they love the unlimited PTO policy—from the company’s standpoint. There’s no way to cash out non-existent accrued PTO hours
Limited PTO: people tend to come to work even when they’re sick, but likes to go on trips much more often.
Did you know Salesforce has a separate policy for PTO? Accrual for anyone below grade 7 job level. Unlimited for above that......My friend hates having unlimited PTO.
Unlimited PTO looks good on paper, but it’s terrible once you get in from experience.
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Santa Clara County in CA is slowly growing in cases. 3 new cases today. What’s strange is that the local news is reporting that two of the three are a couple that recently traveled to Egypt as if suggesting they may have gotten it from there. However, Egypt confirmed its first case around two weeks ago, and just today confirmed its second case—a foreigner.
I see very little discussion of how the coronavirus is/has the potential to affect Tesla and the SP. If that thread is elsewhere, I'd appreciate someone directing me to it.
If there isn't one, the questions I think need to be asked are as follows:
Giga Shanghai
Concerns have been raised about the temporary shutdown and how that will affect deliveries (most of which have been optimistically dismissed), but I've heard zero on the knock-on effects of supply chain disruptions.
I'm not educated on the sourcing of parts, but certainly some components are being provided by Chinese suppliers (as Tesla themselves said they were interested in using local parts) and Hubei province alone is home to many such automotive component manufacturers.
So, 1) even if Giga Shanghai is fully operational, are they getting 100% of the components they need to produce the M3? Or have those supply chains been disrupted/delayed?
2) If battery packs are being shipped from Giga Nevada, are they not being delayed en route? Either at port/in transit/etc. There must be some effect.
Everywhere else
The same line of thinking applies here. Does Tesla not use at least one component that is sourced from China in either Fremont or Giga Nevada? If so, I would expect delays to component deliveries at the very least, and if you don't have all the parts, zero cars will be made.
Jack Rickard - a man who likely knows more about the components inside Tesla products than anyone else, and who also hit the jackpot on this huge runup - confirms supply chain disruptions to Fremont Model 3s.
1:20:20
"And I can't get our prototypes and a lot of other stuff...China right now...Model 3 module boards and connectors for Model 3 batteries...I can't get 'em...for the foreseeable future..."
Furthermore, the outbreak in Japan, and a corresponding disruption to supply chains, seems all but imminent now. Are the 18650 not produced in Japan?
With only a very shallow understanding of Tesla's sourcing of parts, its obvious components come from Chinese suppliers and that there has been, and will continue to be, supply chain disruptions that either slow or even halt vehicle production.
Other companies - from Apple to Nissan to Hyundai - have announced disruptions to production, but not Tesla. Are long lead times on parts delaying the disruptions for weeks/months into the future? At some point, the other shoe has to drop...
If there isn't one, the questions I think need to be asked are as follows:
Giga Shanghai
Concerns have been raised about the temporary shutdown and how that will affect deliveries (most of which have been optimistically dismissed), but I've heard zero on the knock-on effects of supply chain disruptions.
I'm not educated on the sourcing of parts, but certainly some components are being provided by Chinese suppliers (as Tesla themselves said they were interested in using local parts) and Hubei province alone is home to many such automotive component manufacturers.
So, 1) even if Giga Shanghai is fully operational, are they getting 100% of the components they need to produce the M3? Or have those supply chains been disrupted/delayed?
2) If battery packs are being shipped from Giga Nevada, are they not being delayed en route? Either at port/in transit/etc. There must be some effect.
Everywhere else
The same line of thinking applies here. Does Tesla not use at least one component that is sourced from China in either Fremont or Giga Nevada? If so, I would expect delays to component deliveries at the very least, and if you don't have all the parts, zero cars will be made.
Jack Rickard - a man who likely knows more about the components inside Tesla products than anyone else, and who also hit the jackpot on this huge runup - confirms supply chain disruptions to Fremont Model 3s.
"And I can't get our prototypes and a lot of other stuff...China right now...Model 3 module boards and connectors for Model 3 batteries...I can't get 'em...for the foreseeable future..."
Furthermore, the outbreak in Japan, and a corresponding disruption to supply chains, seems all but imminent now. Are the 18650 not produced in Japan?
With only a very shallow understanding of Tesla's sourcing of parts, its obvious components come from Chinese suppliers and that there has been, and will continue to be, supply chain disruptions that either slow or even halt vehicle production.
Other companies - from Apple to Nissan to Hyundai - have announced disruptions to production, but not Tesla. Are long lead times on parts delaying the disruptions for weeks/months into the future? At some point, the other shoe has to drop...
Coronavirus Status
March 2nd, 8:30 am CET
Active Cases
Globally: 40,864 (falling)
China: 32,582 (falling)
new active China cases only 202 (More than -50% since yesterday) and shrinking since 2 weeks
Positive trend continuous : More people recover than getting sick
Coronavirus Update (Live): 89,074 Cases and 3,050 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
March 2nd, 8:30 am CET
Active Cases
Globally: 40,864 (falling)
China: 32,582 (falling)
new active China cases only 202 (More than -50% since yesterday) and shrinking since 2 weeks
Positive trend continuous : More people recover than getting sick
Coronavirus Update (Live): 89,074 Cases and 3,050 Deaths from COVID-19 Wuhan China Virus Outbreak - Worldometer
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Th Impact on the production is according to internal sources in GF3 China a day ago zero. I can try to find that twitter post but its just internal sources so not solid data. Videos from the factory working lately show us the are busy and supply is constantly coming in. One single part missing though would mean they have a challenge but thats not visible as complete vehicles leave the factory.
The continue their ramp and we do not have any cases. With only 202 new cases in all of china today shrinking since 2 weeks and more than 50% less than a day ago the trend is really positive. People get faster healthy than new ones are infected.
With consideration of parts supply we all know that Tesla is heavily vertical integrated so the risk of being impacted is lower as long as they stay without cases. There are special measures taken in GF3 to disinfect regularly as well as all cars that leave the factory get a special treatment to make sure them to 100% free of any virus.
Japan as a supplier has only 256 total cases and active 208 active cases which is really low. Its hard to imagine why Japan should develop into an issue.
Tesla moves in China in terms of parts supply (the few they get from suppliers) more to local sourcing. To what extend that happened or is planned and to what extend parts are maybe even shipped from Europe or the US right now we do not know.
All together we can fairly assume that the risk for Tesla to be negatively impacted by the virus in terms of parts supply is lower as with all other automakers simply because of vertical integration
With regards to the US here is data any my thoughts.
12 new cases have been recorded and 77 total active cases with 2 deaths. To compare with Germany with 114 active cases and zero deaths.
I agree that the attitude to go to work even if people feel bad and issues with insurance costs coverage and health care, the risk is higher people not doing what they supposed to in particular as its a large country without borders between states where you could not control. China is a negative example in that respect and Europe has an advantage.
Despite the increasing numbers may sound worrisome for many its in the international context and growth we have seen in other countries still low growth therefore as of now the situation does not look out of control or to grow even exponentially. Jumps may happen but that can be controlled too if authorities follow the guidelines.
Also and very much underestimated is that this is an international effort to isolate the virus and the US does not have to go through learning curves alone like China who have been very much unprepared and in denial at start. In the US is a high alert level and thats a positive to get the virus under control early. Early is key and critical because you can handle smaller amounts of cases but if it gets out of hand like in China at start you have only the choice to isolate complete cities which I do not expect in the US to happen.
12 new cases have been recorded and 77 total active cases with 2 deaths. To compare with Germany with 114 active cases and zero deaths.
I agree that the attitude to go to work even if people feel bad and issues with insurance costs coverage and health care, the risk is higher people not doing what they supposed to in particular as its a large country without borders between states where you could not control. China is a negative example in that respect and Europe has an advantage.
Despite the increasing numbers may sound worrisome for many its in the international context and growth we have seen in other countries still low growth therefore as of now the situation does not look out of control or to grow even exponentially. Jumps may happen but that can be controlled too if authorities follow the guidelines.
Also and very much underestimated is that this is an international effort to isolate the virus and the US does not have to go through learning curves alone like China who have been very much unprepared and in denial at start. In the US is a high alert level and thats a positive to get the virus under control early. Early is key and critical because you can handle smaller amounts of cases but if it gets out of hand like in China at start you have only the choice to isolate complete cities which I do not expect in the US to happen.
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