Coronavirus

[SageBrush]

I like the other parts of your post -- bravo.

As for the above, PCR based assays are not affected by antibodies, and antibody infusion does not 'speed up' antibody development.
As for being a therapeutic, it is complicated because it is most effective given early in disease ... when it is not clearly indicated. And there will never be enough to give to every infected old or fat or co-morbid person in the US.

One other point --

Patients being treated with plasma products are also being treated with a host of other 'we hope this helps' therapeutics. At this stage the cause and effect cannot be teased out with any confidence, let alone certainty. It is about as anecdotal as it gets. If large scale RCT is a 10/10 on the scale of good, reproducible science to tease out causation , then plasma infusions are a 1/10.

All that said, the occasional reports of delayed viral clearing after clinical recovery are very interesting. In the treated population I presume the major risk factor for this sort of course is related to steroid use. That would match what we know from other diseases.

 

[samppa]

Our government 5 head ministers are in a meeting now, we're waiting on info on what they decide to do next.

Whatever it is, I have to say they are pretty

View attachment 522284

Drastic measures. All schools, libraries, sports halls etc closed. Kindergartens stay open.
Gatherings of more than 10 people banned.
Visiting homes for elderly forbidden.
Visiting hospitals forbidden.

Over 70-year olds are forbidden to be in any contact with other people.

 

[bkp_duke]

This one avoids the percentage pitfall and has dates so if you share it it won't be misleading as it ages.

r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn/oc_covid19_us_vs_italy_11_day_lag/

Along the lines of what @Cosmacelf was getting at. Are those absolute numbers or a % of the population?

Asking because if they are absolute numbers, then correcting for relative populations (60 mil vs. 350 mil) makes a huge change in the data and the interpretations of that data.

 

[Cosmacelf]

You know, this product might actually work

 

[jbcarioca]

I like the other parts of your post -- bravo.

As for the above, PCR based assays are not affected by antibodies, and antibody infusion does not 'speed up' antibody development.
As for being a therapeutic, it is complicated because it is most effective given early in disease ... when it is not clearly indicated. And there will never be enough to give to every infected old or fat or co-morbid person in the US.

Thanks for that. I was following discussions I had read elsewhere. FWIW, I trust myself on things epidemiological, specifically including morbidity/mortality, and generally think I do well when considering analogies. However, my treatment comments are obviously derivative and I should not have made them.

BTW, it is also true that some of the more recent developments, Netherlands and France as examples, appear to have significant deviations in typical morbidity patterns. Both seem possibly to have significant COVID-19 cases outside of the typical risk grouping. Thus far I have seen no data, just anecdotes, so it enough to make me thirst for data. We do know that the Brazilian man (who was infected when he travelled with Bolsonaro and met Trump etc) was early 40's in good health but had traveled to Lombardy the prior week. It does seem that commencing with the Lombardy cases many victims were atypical. If such events become patterns all the past historical expectations might be erroneous.

One major caution suggesting atypical character is the presence of numerous cases that have had apparent recovery followed by rapid decline and sometimes death. The first such case of which i read was that of a 29 year-old MD from Wuhan, otherwise healthy, who had been treating cases and was herself seemingly recovered, tested negative twice then suddenly relapsed and died. It is entirely possible that the testing has been deficient. It is also seemingly logical to assume that the scarring and other pulmonary damage might enable the virus to escape detection in small concentrations.

The very proof of risk is that we still have no definitive was to understand any of the core recognition, diagnosis nor treatment methods. Without those we can be sure that prevention (e.g. vaccines) will be more than a year away. Even then every flu vaccine is a bet on an unknown evolution of viruses. We all want a panacea.

How I long for the time a couple of months ago when I could wander carelessly in my Tesla.

 

[SageBrush]

The opposite is true. Just like the claims about the wall. He went on for months about how Mexico will pay for it, but when it became obvious that was an idiotic thing suddenly all the idiots followed the new talking point "oh, we always knew he meant Mexico would pay for it via tariffs."

Yep.
Trump also says that AGW is a hoax.
How does our local trump mouthpiece interpret that proclamation ?

I'll agree that trump whistles dog. Is that English ? Clearly not, since it interpreted as 'A' and Not 'A' according to political context. Should the US electorate demand that a POTUS speak English when science is the topic ? When an epidemic is the topic ?

 

[Causalien]

View attachment 522342

You know, this product might actually work

Yesterday I had the spiciest most authentic indian Curry spice and proceed to cough up whatever foreign substance I had in my lung. Can confirm anything hot works.

 

[Nocturnal]

Yesterday I had the spiciest most authentic indian Curry spice and proceed to cough up whatever foreign substance I had in my lung. Can confirm anything hot works.

I love spicy food but it always makes me cough afterwards. I was very paranoid at work last week hoping people wouldn't assume I was infected.

 

[SageBrush]

The first such case of which i read was that of a 29 year-old MD from Wuhan, otherwise healthy, who had been treating cases and was herself seemingly recovered, tested negative twice then suddenly relapsed and died.

Do you have a reference to a published case report ?

 

[StealthP3D]

I signed up yesterday, and am waiting for the test kit to arrive.

When you tested positive, was zinc therapy with Chloroquine recommended?

Congrats on your recovery!

 

[SageBrush]

Trivia of the day: what is the R-value between BMI and abdominal girth in the US population ?

@dhanson865 ?

 

[VValleyEV]

This one avoids the percentage pitfall and has dates so if you share it it won't be misleading as it ages.

r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn/oc_covid19_us_vs_italy_11_day_lag/

I can’t get that link to work. Can you try again?

 

[AudubonB]

News out of Washington state isn't remarkable, except......

• Governor is expected to sign an edict closing all bars and restaurants
• No groupings of more than 50 persons (should be "5" in my opinion)

But......casinos are exempt from the above. Why? Because, as per the wisdom of the 40+ states who have suckered on to this ridiculousness and allowed them only via a bizarre reading of Indian Treaties (dollarspeak, anyone?), the casinos are considered Sovereign Nations - can't be touched, to use a felicitous and timely phrase.

 

[KarenRei]

I personally sort of hope my family and I get Covid-19 on this round while the virus seems to be fairly mild. Hopefully that will allow us to build some natural immunity for the inevitable when the virus cycles back this fall or sometime in the future. I'm worried that on subsequent cycles it could be much more lethal and few of us will have any immunity.

Spanish flu - Wikipedia
-----------------------
The second wave of the 1918 pandemic was much deadlier than the first. The first wave had resembled typical flu epidemics; those most at risk were the sick and elderly, while younger, healthier people recovered easily. By August, when the second wave began in France, Sierra Leone, and the United States,[92] the virus had mutated to a much deadlier form. October 1918 was the deadliest month of the whole pandemic.[93]

This increased severity has been attributed to the circumstances of the First World War.[94] In civilian life, natural selection favors a mild strain. Those who get very ill stay home, and those mildly ill continue with their lives, preferentially spreading the mild strain. In the trenches, natural selection was reversed. Soldiers with a mild strain stayed where they were, while the severely ill were sent on crowded trains to crowded field hospitals, spreading the deadlier virus. The second wave began, and the flu quickly spread around the world again. Consequently, during modern pandemics, health officials pay attention when the virus reaches places with social upheaval (looking for deadlier strains of the virus).[95]
-----------------------

In normal circumstances, "flus" get milder with time, not more severe. World War I unintentionally inverted the selective factors.

Regardless, the more time that passes, the further along antiviral development, vaccine development, and hospital preparation will be. You do not want to be among those who get it in the near term when the risk of hospital overload is highest and the available treatments are limited.

 

[bkp_duke]

Trivia of the day: what is the R-value between BMI and abdominal girth in the US population ?

@dhanson865 ?

0.63
Correlation Between Body Mass Index and Waist Circumference in Nigerian Adults: Implication as Indicators of Health Status

 

[bkp_duke]

News out of Washington state isn't remarkable, except......

• Governor is expected to sign an edict closing all bars and restaurants
• No groupings of more than 50 persons (should be "5" in my opinion)

But......casinos are exempt from the above. Why? Because, as per the wisdom of the 40+ states who have suckered on to this ridiculousness and allowed them only via a bizarre reading of Indian Treaties (dollarspeak, anyone?), the casinos are considered Sovereign Nations - can't be touched, to use a felicitous and timely phrase.

Single data point - local casino here is closing.

 

[dfwatt]

I'm afraid the people that have been promoting panic from day 1 are going to be right, but for the wrong reasons. We're nuking the global economy instead of the virus. The worst thing is, when this is over and far fewer people died than we expected, those in charge will congratulate themselves and be sure that panic is what saved us. Panic not only won't save our parents, it will also hurt our children's futures. The worst of both worlds.

I literally have no idea what you mean when you talk about "nuking the virus." The notion that social isolation, quarantining and the best epidemiologically-informed practices that have proven in both South Korea and China to achieve containment and declining infection rates is some version of panic baffles the crap out of me.

 

[GaryW]

College wrestling championships were held over the weekend.

From the Washington Post:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/spor...-than-fear-college-wrestling-tournament-went/

At the bottom of the article, the Liberty University Coach is quoted as saying the virus (or the ‘scare’, not clear which) was created to impeach the President.

I went to the Liberty University web site. They celebrate their showing at the wrestling championship. The web site shares that classes are open as usual. They mention the 100.4 degree fever mentioned in the article.

Wrestlers with a temperature above 100.4 were to be disqualified, but no temperatures were taken at the event.

Also, wrestlers were not allowed to use the competition mats to reduce the risk of infection, so all competitors shared a single practice mat.

The organizers stressed faith over fear, and the use of common sense.

 

[dzmconstr]

Talk about cherry picking your data for political motives. Guam is about as geographically isolated as anywhere on earth. It also has practically no economy outside of its dependence on the US Military.

Of course isolation in this case could keep the virus at bay.

Two points:
Guam has a large economy due to tourism as well. It's not just DOD.
Bahamas and Bermuda: 0 cases to date (last I looked)...hhmm probably the smart gov't right? No it was shutting down and Isolating the countries further than they are (which I'll buy was a smart move, one which the libs will say the President should have done, but then had he done it they would have gone high and right critical and probably died of a stroke).
Dzm

 

[dhanson865]

I can’t get that link to work. Can you try again?

I intentionally deconstructed the URL because I don't like how TMC parses links and hides the URL.

go to reddit and the past the r/whatever to the address bar after reddit.com or just highlight r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fjj2xn/oc_covid19_us_vs_italy_11_day_lag/ and search for that term and let google take you there

or if you really must have a single click interface [OC] COVID-19 US vs Italy (11 day lag) : dataisbeautiful

but I don't post live links in most of my posts here because I'm just citing a source not suggesting you must go there.