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Does the SF shutdown really applies to the industry? Here in Austria/Europe the shutdown is just for B2C (all shops except grocery stores etc.). All factories are still allowed to continue to produce (as long as there are not more than 100 pax in one room).
Not sure. The order doesn't list manufacturing as a "necessary" activity. Auto repair shops can remain open.
 
We need some truly innovative and far reaching plans from the federal government to move us forward. I'm talking new deal level things. UBI, massive hiring of young people to keep infrastructure going, delivering supplies to the elderly, auxiliary hospital staff etc. I think even if you like Trump you might agree this type of thing isn't his strong point. Sigh.
 
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In my memory this one probably tops all the market crashes I've experienced. Because all the actions and reactions have consequences in real life.

Life impact is greater than 2008. so I am starting to contemplate if that leads to financial market impact also greater than 2008.
Yup. 2008 "omg, banks might fail" 2020 - "omg, lots of people might die...and then the banks will fail."
 
You are comparing . . . tomatoes to . . . Teslas.

Shutting down the border of a country the size of a small island is relatively easy. Closing the border for the USA . . . not so much.
You are comparing . . . tomatoes to . . . Teslas.

Shutting down the border of a country the size of a small island is relatively easy. Closing the border for the USA . . . not so much.
What are you talking about....Guam is very similar to Bermuda and Bahamas.

And yes I know about USA and you need to reread what I wrote because it had nothing to do with hard to close our border....
 
Huh? How did what I write imply this? I think you're reading way too much into what I wrote. What triggered you?

I couldn't see what you were replying to, but I can guess.

Meanwhile rather than pick strawman fights that don't contribute to any useful knowledge -- here are two interesting case reports. (Would these have resolved w/o the chloroquine? Who knows! more data would be better! I agree. But we are where are with imperfect information.)

Two Japanese case reports re successful treatment: http://www.kansensho.or.jp/uploads/files/topics/2019ncov/covid19_casereport_200312_5.pdf [in Japanese]

a quick and dirty Google translation

At the end of 2019, unexplained pneumonia was reported in China, and SARS-CoV-2 was identified as the cause. Although it has been only 2 months since then, it has spread quickly worldwide. In Japan, as of 12:00 on March 8, 2020, there were 455 infected and 6 dead COVID-19s (excluding the Cruz Vessel), and even more in this context. A total of 27 people reported using ventilators or entering intensive care units; however, there is currently no established treatment for COVID-19. Was presented on February 26, 2020, regarding the concept of antiviral treatment (first edition), and was listed as two drugs, Rohinafil / Litnahir (LPV / r) and Phafahirahil. Despite administering LPV / r during the course. Two patients with poor response to therapy experienced respiratory failure, one of whom required artificial respiration. The administration of hydroxychloroquine was considered necessary for new therapy, and both patients had symptoms. Report


Case Case 1: 69-year-old male Chief complaint: respiratory failure, fever


Current medical history: One week before admission to Hospital A, she visited a nearby physician for complaining of malaise and was diagnosed as having a cold. She had been observing her condition. He was referred to the hospital A via a public health center because of pneumonia. On the same day, a sputum SARS-CoV-2 PCR test was performed, and the patient was diagnosed with COVID-19. The general condition at admission was good. On chest CT, rubbing shadows were observed on both lungs (left dominant) (Fig. 1). On the second day after admission, Rohinadir / Litnahir (LPV / r) was started, and on the second day of hospitalization, chest rent cane pneumonia was observed. On the third day of admission, the patient became ventilator-controlled and respiratory failure progressed. At the same time, she was transferred to Hospital B on the same day with the intention of promptly introducing ECMO.


History: hypertension, type 2 diabetes Living history: Smoking history 20 bottles x 30 years (20-50 years old) Fig.1: Chest CT at hospital admission


Current illness on admission: Consciousness (during sedation; clear before intubation), body temperature 39.5 ° C, blood pressure 144/56 mmHg, pulse 77 / min, respiratory rate 20 / min (spontaneous breathing). FiO2 0.7, PEEP 12 cmH2O, PS 10 cmH2O, pO2 82.3 mmHg, P / F ratio 117. On physical examination, I heard coarse crackles on the right lower back of the lung. Abdominal distended and peristaltic sound Had declined.


Blood tests (Table 1) and imaging tests (Figs. 2 and 3) are shown.


Table 1 Hematology Biochemistry


WBC Neut Lym Mo Eo Baso RBC Hb Ht Plt


7,870 / μL 85.2% 8.2% 4.4% 0.0% 0.3%


3.67 × 106 / μL 11.2 g / dL 33.9%


157 × 103 / μL


TP Alb BUN Cre AST ALT T-Bil ALP Na


K Cl CRP


5.2 g / dL 2.3 g / dL


22 mg / dL 1.37 mg / dL


68 U / L


35 U / L 1.9 mg / dL


97 U / L 137 mEq / L 3.3 mEq / L 104 mEq / L


21.92 mg / dL


Coagulation


PT-INR APTT FDP 1.26 INR 34.9 sec 5.4 μg / mL Fig.2: Chest X-ray at hospital B Fig.3: Chest CT at hospital B During the course, SARS-CoV-2 PCR of sputum was performed on the third and ninth days of the disease, and the results were positive. Fig. 4: Chest CT on the fourth day Fig.5: Chest CT on the 7th day Fig 6 Progress after hospitalization (Fig. 6)


At admission, she had respiratory failure with a P / F ratio of 120. Was she in a condition to consider ECMO, consulted with multiple medical departments, and responded to artificial respiratory management and implemented a lung protection strategy based on ARDS? As antiviral treatment, (1) two tablets (800/200 mg) of anti-HIV drug (LPV / r) at a time, and (2) antimalarial drug; hydroxychloroquine 400 mg once a day (dose for SLE treatment) On the second day, a CT examination was performed (Fig. 3), and the abrasion of both lungs worsened compared to the previous physician, producing a pneumonia image predominant in the right lung. Muscle relaxants were started on the same day to suppress tidal volume, and CHDF was started as a renal replacement therapy due to progression of renal impairment (blood filters used sepXiris® (Pakster Co., Ltd. on days 2 to 7). ), UT Filter® (Nifuro) was selected after the 8th illness day). On the fourth day, the oxygenation ability improved to a P / F ratio of> 200, and no decrease in oxygenation was observed even when PEEP was lowered. (Fig. 4) The muscle relaxant was terminated on the same day.On the 5th day of the disease, the patient was discontinued due to an increase in the level of polyphenols or continued adverse effects of LPV / r. Thereafter, the respiratory condition and imaging findings gradually improved. (Fig. 5). Because of improvement in respiratory condition, oral administration of hydroxychloroquine was terminated on the 9th day. At present, delayed arousal or prolongation and examination of the timing of extubation are being studied.


Case 2: 66-year-old woman, wife of Case 1. Chief complaint: fever, malaise Current medical history: Three days before admission, she had a chill and malaise, and she visited a nearby clinic and was treated as a cold. Three days later, her husband was diagnosed with COVID-19, and she visited A hospital as a close contact. SARS-CoV- 2 As a result of PCR, she was diagnosed with COVID-19 and was hospitalized.


Past history: None


Current illness at admission: No special instructions


Image inspection: Fig. 7


Fig.7 Progress of imaging findings during hospitalization Fig.8 Day 1 Day 7 Day 12


Course after hospitalization (Fig. 8) The general condition at the time of admission was favorable, so treatment was particularly performed, and the patient was followed up. Since fever of C was observed and fever persisted on the 4th day, oral administration of 500 mg of LVFX was started after blood culture was collected, and at the same time as LPV / r once. Oral administration of 2 tablets (800/200 mg) was started; however, on the 5th day, anorexia and watery diarrhea appeared to be associated with oral administration of LPV / r. Administration of LPV / r was discontinued due to persistent and high-fever general body depletion. On the 7th hospital day, chest radionuclide decreased the permeability of the right lung, and chest CT showed a scalp admitted on admission. Did the shadows tend to disappear? Newly appeared patchy abrasions in both lungs, and the pneumonia image worsened. Increased inflammation was observed at the blood collection site, and hypoxemia also appeared, resulting in 1 L / min of oxygen. Administration of hydroxychloroquine 400 mg once daily was started as a new treatment.The fever was resolved on the ninth sick day, and the general condition gradually improved thereafter. Initially found a pickled glass shadow 'S, began to change gradually to infiltrate. SARS-CoV- who underwent in the 13th and 15 postoperative day


2 The PCR was negative, and she was discharged on the 16th day.


Consideration


In this case, both patients started to use hydroxychloroquine because the symptoms worsened even after LPV / r was started early. Both patients began to improve their symptoms from day 2 after the start of hydroxychloroquine, and hydroxychloroquine was effective. The antimalarial drug chloroquine phosphate is recommended for use on the new coronavirus medical treatment kit line issued by the National Health and Safety Commission of China1) or produced in Japan. However, hydroxychloroquine, which exhibits the same pharmacokinetics, has also been approved as a therapeutic agent for SLE in Japan, and a clinical trial comparing human chloroquine phosphate with hydroxychloroquine for COVID-19 has already been conducted in China. 2) For chloroquine phosphate, more than 100 patients There were reports that sufficient differences were obtained in terms of image quality, virus elimination rate, and duration of symptom. 2) Is trametinib an anti-inflammatory or known effect as used in SLE? It is thought that it also has antiviral effects, such as raising the pH in the phagosome and inhibiting glycosylation, and suppressing the growth of the virus.2) 5). On the other hand, retinopathy is one of the rare serious side effects that may be considered as a cumulative dose or a danger for long-term use of 200 g or more. It is considered that it is safe to use COVID-19.The recent report on the mortality rate of COVID-19 is 1.4%, is the number of affected individuals decreasing as the population increases? 3) Enter the room and artificial call The mortality rate of severe cases requiring inhalation management within 28 days is as high as 61.5% 4), and the median time before death after entering the ICU is as short as 7 days.


It is necessary to consider that effective therapeutic intervention should be performed early on, and that hydroxychloroquine may have contributed to the improvement of symptoms even in severe cases, and that side effects can be safely used with almost no side effects. It is considered to be a first-line drug or a concomitant drug to be considered as a concomitant drug, and there are concerns that COVID-19 will increase in Japan in the future.
 
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If we have similar # of infected as flu you would be looking at 10x the number of deaths.
Not to mention there is no immunity in the population and the doubling rate is extremely short. I think some people underestimate what an exponential function can do...

With a doubling rate of 2.5 days, 8 days is a factor of roughly 10. A factor of 1000 is roughly 24 days.
 
Expecting tirade from Elon in 3 . . . 2 . . . 1 . . .

Yeah as I posted earlier (which of course received the expected vehement disagreement from those who don't prefer heresy), I didn't think his tweets would age well. "The coronavirus panic is dumb." Hmm.

I assume this is going to mean a production halt. Guess we'll see what they come up with. I guess essential activities would include work, so maybe all is well (???). I have no idea (also, all is not well, obviously). EDIT: reading the article below, sounds like it is going to require a stop to production unless they have something up their sleeve...

No matter what they are doing, hope they are finding some ways to keep their workers screened and safe. They have experience with this - we'll see how it goes.
 
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3 week lockdown in San Francisco, that's insane.

Yes it's crazy. And it's not just the city of San Francisco, it's all of the counties around San Francisco: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara and the city of Berkeley.


Does the SF shutdown really applies to the industry? Here in Austria/Europe the shutdown is just for B2C (all shops except grocery stores etc.). All factories are still allowed to continue to produce (as long as there are not more than 100 pax in one room).
Not sure. The order doesn't list manufacturing as a "necessary" activity. Auto repair shops can remain open.


Only essential businesses are supposed to remain open.

SAN FRANCISCO (KTVU) - In an unprecedented move to slow the spread of an illness killing people throughout the world, six Bay Area counties on Monday issued a legal order directing their residents to stay at home for three weeks starting Tuesday.

The order limits activity, travel and business functions to only the most essential needs.
Bay Area takes unprecedented action, issuing legal order for residents to stay at home
 
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From popular Icelandic comic strip author Hugleikur Dagsson...

89036548_10158184281989826_2423597539157606400_o.jpg
 
About 650 globally today. France, UK, Spain are rising along with USA. Hopefully Italy has peaked, but still 349 deaths in Italy today.

ITALY Protezione Civile 202003170015 (Custom).JPG


Latest Italian numbers from the government's Protezione Civile.
Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS
White - deceased. May their families find peace and a measure of acceptance.
Green - released.
Obviously, this data is less influenced by overall testing numbers.
Here's to the Italian "lockdown" hopefully beginning to work.

Bergamo's obituaries compared [Feb 9 and March 13]:
David Carretta on Twitter

And say it again, the core problem is a breakdown of emergency care - for all the population.