Coronavirus

[Prunesquallor]

Reductio ad contagion actually
Expose yourself as you see fit but I'm staying home and nothing comes in my house before a 3 day quarantine in my garage.

You have to come out sometime, an the virus will still be there.

 

[eevee-fan]

The 56% number is with "nothing done".

Wonder what NYC's infection is currently... they have 8k positive test cases, likely multiples of that.

 

[bkp_duke]

The surge capacity in US is very limited. Both NY and WA are reeling that way.

What i’m Talking about is high fatalities of Italy. We don’t know whether NYC will be like Italy or Germany.

BTW, looks like WA is not growing exponentially and may come out of the crisis relatively better because of - Seattle Flu study.

The surge capacity in EVERY country is limited. Not a single country in the world has surge capacity for a once-in-100 year pandemic.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Wonder what NYC's infection is currently... they have 8k positive test cases, likely multiples of that.

That's for the entire state of New York. But yeah, likely many multiples of that. The metropolitan area has about 20 million people so still a long way to go before herd immunity and the hospitals are starting to fill up...

 

[bkp_duke]

Starting to look like flu + coronavirus deaths in the US will end up lower than flu in 2018. I'm sure the panic crowd will point to the nationwide shutdown, but listening to North Philadelphia tonight.....I see zero change in behavior.

We'll either have major regional spikes by next Thursday/Friday or we crushed the entire global economy for nothing.

Whatever way you slice it, the total US deaths directly resulting from this economic collapse will FAR eclipse those of CV.

Though much like this Trump presidency, I think a lot of good will come from this shitshow. Trust the Process!

Let's revisit these numbers in 2 weeks and see if you are still singing this tune.

 

[Jetex Jim]

I can’t believe Florida didn’t shut down Spring Break. High population of elderly at risk citizens. I read that there were 19 nursing care facilities with reported coronavirus in them. They wouldn’t say which ones. My MIL is in care down there now and we have no idea what the situation is in hers. No one has been allowed to visit for a while which is understandable but still would like to know if there were any confirmed cases there.

Only thing I can figure for not shutting down Spring break is the loss of revenue generated by it. At this point in time sure isn’t because we don’t believe the virus won’t spread in large gatherings. Maybe all the Spring Breakers should have to stay in Florida now and be cared for there. Latest reports I saw said this age group comprised a much higher percentage of young adults needing hospitalization. This just seems so governmentally irresponsible to me and will now be an additional burden on other states and their populations.

Truly amazing to watch some of those kids, some of them obese, acting as though they are immune. Do they not realise their health is already compromised by their obesity?

 

[EinSV]

I hope those who think Florida will be hit super hard are wrong but difficult to say that. We have had all bars and nightclubs closed. Many beaches have closed (local beach today) and groups of >10 have to disperse. Personally I am hoping word of alcohol and beach unavailability will keep next batch of spring breakers away or at least make them return home quickly. Homes for the elderly have been denied visitors for a while and new push for vetting all outside workers and contractors has begun. Our governor did not make the tough decisions early enough but many local governments have stepped forward, in particular regarding closure of beaches. Vacation rentals are restricted in my county to groups of ten although many are advertised for groups of 20. Hope this discourages visitors. Interviews of beach goers ignoring the 10 people groupings of the beach have mostly revealed an attitude of "this is our spring break so we will take the chance" or "the danger to us is very small".

Restaurants are closed also excerpt for drive through or carry out.

I hope it's not the case, but there is some data posted in this thread suggesting that these steps are too late to prevent a major outbreak in Florida. US Health Weather Map by Kinsa

 

[Cosmacelf]

I put together this quick snippet of data from worldometer info. This is US data. Looks like Elon is right. New case rate increase peaked 3 days ago. The usefulness of this data highly depends on what is going on with testing. Presumably we have more testing going on now (anyone have numbers for number of people tested?), but it's possible we're not keeping up with the exponentially more number of people that should be tested. And criteria for who should be tested can change. So, as usual, lots of confounding issues with this simple data set. Nonetheless, it's interesting.

View attachment 523829

So when I posted the dataset from worldometer, I mentioned that while the rate of daily increase appears to be slowing, that could be an artifact that not enough testing is occurring. And that is, in fact, what appears to be happening. While the daily new cases graph is more or less exponential, the number people being tested isn't:

So, as many people have suspected, looking at "# of cases" really doesn't tell you much since it is warped by the number of tests we are doing.

 

[ohmman]

So, as many people have suspected, looking at "# of cases" really doesn't tell you much since it is warped by the number of tests we are doing.

Still an inexact measurement, but it seems as if the ratio of positive cases:number of tests is at least a better metric. Or am I missing something?

 

[Daniel in SD]

So, as many people have suspected, looking at "# of cases" really doesn't tell you much since it is warped by the number of tests we are doing.

Sadly, viruses are much better at manufacturing than humans.

 

[Cosmacelf]

To continue on, only two numbers are important is all this, and unfortunately these numbers are at the tail end of the process: # ICU patients (versus capacity) and deaths.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Still an inexact measurement, but it seems as if the ratio of positive cases:number of tests is at least a better metric. Or am I missing something?

OK, I'll bite. Here's that data. I'm not sure what it shows? Other than these are frigging high positive test ratios!

(US Data from Coronavirus numbers by state - Google Drive)

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK, I'll bite. Here's that data. I'm not sure what it shows? Other than these are frigging high positive test ratios!

(US Data from Coronavirus numbers by state - Google Drive)

View attachment 523878

I guess what it shows is that there isn't enough testing being done. Which my other analysis also showed, only from a different way.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Starting to look like flu + coronavirus deaths in the US will end up lower than flu in 2018. I'm sure the panic crowd will point to the nationwide shutdown, but listening to North Philadelphia tonight.....I see zero change in behavior.

We'll either have major regional spikes by next Thursday/Friday or we crushed the entire global economy for nothing.

Whatever way you slice it, the total US deaths directly resulting from this economic collapse will FAR eclipse those of CV.

Though much like this Trump presidency, I think a lot of good will come from this shitshow. Trust the Process!

Did the 2018 flu overwhelm hospitals, like what is about to happen in NYC, and did happen in Italy and China? We are just on the cusp of finding out just how bad this is going to get.

 

[Daniel in SD]

To continue on, only two numbers are important is all this, and unfortunately these numbers are at the tail end of the process: # ICU patients (versus capacity) and deaths.

This is one thing many of the "skeptics" are missing. If you look at Korea at their peak daily infection rate the total number of deaths was 32. Now, about two weeks later, it's at 102. Eight people died today which looks like their deadliest day yet. People are spending a long time in the ICU.

 

[Cosmacelf]

You have to come out sometime, an the virus will still be there.

Yes, but hopefully by that time, hospitals will be over the surge and better therapeutics will be in use. The longer we can delay a large part of the population getting this the better. Honestly, read the various news reports about who is in the ICU. You have perfectly fit people of all ages. Yes, more old people, but it would suck if you were one of those 20 year olds in there with coronavirus scarring your lungs.

 

[ohmman]

I guess what it shows is that there isn't enough testing being done. Which my other analysis also showed, only from a different way.

If the testing criteria were consistent (e.g. randomized on the population), it would be an indicator of infection rate. But obviously it’s not, and you’re right. It tells us nearly nothing in the same way the other numbers tell us nearly nothing.

 

[shinytop]

My impression is the heavy younger crowd and retirees are somewhat geographically separated. Younger being more southish and older folks in the northern parts. Is that right ?

Also warmer, more humid areas may inhibit the virus.

Anyway, Florida and NYC are currently the unknowns. I don’t think the rest of the country will ever get to Italy level fatalities.

ps : SoCal too ?

I really don't know about the distribution of young and old. I am in the extreme west of the panhandle. I believe there are many more retirement communities south of here but then most of the state is south of here. I am a 12 hour drive from Miami. I can drive to Chicago or DC almost as quickly.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

I'm also curious about this claim since I've seen it a bunch of places. It doesn't seem to match up with historical data as far as I can tell. Why will this time be different?
For example: https://www.history.com/news/great-depression-economy-life-expectancy

How Does Economic Recession Affect Substance Use? A Reality Check With Clients of Drug Treatment Centres - PubMed

Income and wealth inequality also just took a massive leap forward. Poverty obviously kills more than anything.

 

[JRP3]

You have to come out sometime, an the virus will still be there.

Delay and minimize contact as much as possible gives better odds.