Coronavirus

[PhaseWhite]

The lockdown did work in Wuhan. After ~2 weeks if you're not sick you're clear. If you can keep ~everyone apart for ~2 weeks you lower the R0 to <1 and it burns out.

I saw one idea on CNBC I thought was genius. Just freeze EVERYTHING for 30 days nationally. No one collects rent, mortgages, student loans, car payments etc, etc. Anything and everything that can be deferred for a month gets deferred for a month. ~$1k/person to buy groceries or whatever. 30 day national lockdown and get it over.

Except what happens after 30 days? We just start the dance over again, that's what.

Summary:
Inside the model that may be making US, UK rethink coronavirus control
Paper:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/im...lege-COVID19-Population-Survey-20-03-2020.pdf

 

[MichaelP90DL]

This would be a great time for someone to put together a deal to buy Tesla. But I hope nobody does.

 

[nwdiver]

Except what happens after 30 days? We just start the dance over again, that's what.

2 Things happen;

1) You reduce the rate of infection giving healthcare infrastructure a chance to catchup (flatten the curve)

2) You may reduce the number of infections to a low enough level that contact tracing and individual quarantine is effective. This appears to be the case in Wuhan now since they've gone 3 days with no new infections.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Did the 2018 flu overwhelm hospitals, like what is about to happen in NYC, and did happen in Italy and China? We are just on the cusp of finding out just how bad this is going to get.

Yes, it did. There were 800k-1M hospitalizations and 60-80k deaths, peaking at 4-9k deaths PER WEEK.

As for what we'll see by this time next week? I'd be shocked and legit panicked if 12k Americans dropped dead of coronavirus next week.

Edit:. Not because that's a lot for CV to kill, but because we're taking pretty extreme measures to limit spread.

 

[electrichapp]

alternative plan to prevent extended shutdown

 

[shootformoon]

No. At least the ratio trend tells us if testing speed is getting ahead of the infection.

If the testing criteria were consistent (e.g. randomized on the population), it would be an indicator of infection rate. But obviously it’s not, and you’re right. It tells us nearly nothing in the same way the other numbers tell us nearly nothing.

 

[shootformoon]

Richard H. Ebright on Twitter
Orally available prodrug of nucleoside analog inhibitor. Activity in mouse SARS-CoV and MERS-CoV infection models. Effective against remdesivir-resistant strains.

Maybe even more promising than remdesivir

 

[Daniel in SD]

How Does Economic Recession Affect Substance Use? A Reality Check With Clients of Drug Treatment Centres - PubMed

Income and wealth inequality also just took a massive leap forward. Poverty obviously kills more than anything.

You claimed increased deaths. It’s really seeming like there isn’t evidence for your claim. Also overdoses have increased dramatically through the recently ended economic boom.
Personally I believe the economy will bounce back quickly. Who knows though.

 

[nwdiver]

Edit:. Not because that's a lot for CV to kill, but because we're taking pretty extreme measures to limit spread.

So.... what should we do? Let it run through the population and eventually kill >2M (~40k/week)? Possibly even higher as hospitals are overwhelmed?

We can either sacrifice fake money or real lives. My vote is to sacrifice fake money but I'm not a monster.

 

[EVNow]

Yes, it did.

Links ?

We need links that show
- hospitals ran out of ppe
- out of ICU
- out of beds
- out of staff, so final year students were asked to skip the final exam and become doctors immediately
- videos of crying doctors and nurses because they are overwhelmed
- 11 pages of obituaries instead of normal 2 in small Italian town newspapers

You know, the normal stuff.

 

[Daniel in SD]

As for what we'll see by this time next week? I'd be shocked and legit panicked if 12k Americans dropped dead of coronavirus next week.

Obviously that’s impossible. That's not how exponential growth works.

 

[Jetex Jim]

You claimed increased deaths. It’s really seeming like there isn’t evidence for your claim. Also overdoses have increased dramatically through the recently ended economic boom.
Personally I believe the economy will bounce back quickly. Who knows though.

Unfortunately economies are like control systems with too much positive feedback (which is why they oscillate) Once they get a large step input in whatever direction positive feedback reinforces it.

There's a time constant that will influence the speed of normal recovery. Governments will need to make massive interventions to 'step change' the economy back into growth.

 

[PhaseWhite]

2 Things happen;

1) You reduce the rate of infection giving healthcare infrastructure a chance to catchup (flatten the curve)

2) You may reduce the number of infections to a low enough level that contact tracing and individual quarantine is effective. This appears to be the case in Wuhan now since they've gone 3 days with no new infections.

Read the paper... To keep the curve flat you need to stay indoors for a very long time.

 

[nwdiver]

Read the paper... To keep the curve flat you need to stay indoors for a very long time.

Yeah... it's gonna take several weeks. What other option do we have? It worked in Wuhan.

None of these are 'good' options. Like I said; We can sacrifice fake money or real lives.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Yeah... it's gonna take several weeks. What other option do we have? It worked in Wuhan.

None of these are 'good' options. Like I said; We can sacrifice fake money or real lives.

Wuhan is still under lockdown. The finding of this study is if they discontinue lock down the infection will flare up again, undoing the benefits.

 

[nwdiver]

Wuhan is still under lockdown. The finding of this study is if they discontinue lock down the infection will flare up again, undoing the benefits.

They've gone 3 days with no new infections. 11 more and they're ~clear. How would it 'flare up' again?

 

[PhaseWhite]

They've gone 3 days with no new infections. 11 more and they're ~clear. How would it 'flare up' again?

It's not true?

 

[Daniel in SD]

Unfortunately economies are like control systems with too much positive feedback (which is why they oscillate) Once they get a large step input in whatever direction positive feedback reinforces it.

There's a time constant that will influence the speed of normal recovery. Governments will need to make massive interventions to 'step change' the economy back into growth.

I’m sticking with my “this time is different” opinion. There has never been a downturn caused by a pandemic. I think there’s a lot of recency bias in this view. There have been recessions where during the recovery the unemployment rate dropped just as fast as it rose.

 

[nwdiver]

It's not true?

..... if a population goes 14 days without a new infection it's gone from that population....

 

[heltok]

Wuhan is still under lockdown. The finding of this study is if they discontinue lock down the infection will flare up again, undoing the benefits.

Wuhan today is far from Wuhan in January in terms of testing capacity, social distancing, hand hygiene etc. R0 will be much lower, likely below 1. Read this article:

Coronavirus: The Hammer and the Dance