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At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

I know many people would like this virus to be benign and not worse than the flu, but be aware that deaths lag positive cases by a long time. People don't die immediately, they suffer for 1-3 weeks before succumbing to the devastating effects of the virus.

And for the definitive answer to the question if this is comparable to the flu: ask the doctors, nurses and undertakers in northern Italy what they think.
 
Universal healthcare would have had no impact upon Coronavirus.

No healthcare system in the WORLD is designed to be able to mitigate a once in 100 year pandemic.
That's technically correct, but it misses the point about people being scared to be tested positive because a hospital stay will bankrupt them. So rather than getting treatment early, they wait until it's too late all the while spreading the virus.
 
Do you think that the USA is handling things more competently than Italy and Spain?

Yes.........the US is. You can't possibly look at the US at one entity. The west coast of the US has handled things much better than Italy and Spain and have been for over a week now. The number of cases/infections/deaths are very much stabilizing on the west coast. New York has become the new Italy but its not because they aren't taking measures.....it's because of the population of New York. Take the per capita and New York looks different. Most importantly, the mortality rate in the US has staid steady at .012

Edit: There are still some areas of the US that aren't preparing like they shoud...cough Florida......but luckily most of the high population areas are taking it seriously and the rural areas that aren't, have very different dynamics to them where people are not crammed together or interact like places in Europe, especially Spain and Italy
 
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At least we're getting a TON of sick memes out of this...
I think we may also see the early end to Facebook too. It's literally worse than this thread. So many good things happening!

It's like when Trump got elected. Everyone was moping. I'm like.....this is the best thing that could happen. Sometimes it's best to hit rock bottom.
 
Yes.........the US is. You can't possibly look at the US at one entity. The west coast of the US has handled things much better than Italy and Spain and have been for over a week now. The number of cases/infections/deaths are very much stabilizing on the west coast. New York has become the new Italy but its not because they aren't taking measures.....it's because of the population of New York. Take the per capita and New York looks different. Most importantly, the mortality rate in the US has staid steady at .012
I hope you are right but I think its a little early to be relaxing. New York is ahead of the rest of the USA, for sure, in terms of the progress of the epidemic.
 
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No one in Earth today really understands the significance of inherent immunity due to previous exposure or herd immunity. You have some immunity to flu because of numerous previous exposures and so does the rest of humanity.

You know when the Europeans brought smallpox to the New World and wiped out the natives at a rate of literally 100%? That's what it looks like when no one has inherent immunity or herd immunity.

We are very, very fortunate that the coronavirus isn't particularly lethal compared to say smallpox. Otherwise humanity would have a serious problem right now. This isn't even a serious problem compared to what I'm talking about.
 
No one in Earth today really understands the significance of inherent immunity due to previous exposure or herd immunity. You have some immunity to flu because of numerous previous exposures and so does the rest of humanity.

You know when the Europeans brought smallpox to the New World and wiped out the natives at a rate of literally 100%? That's what it looks like when no one has inherent immunity or herd immunity.

We are very, very fortunate that the coronavirus isn't particularly lethal compared to say smallpox. Otherwise humanity would have a serious problem right now. This isn't even a serious problem compared to what I'm talking about.

Thankfully this whole thing will hopefully prepare the world for the event of a more serious threat because yes....if the mortality rates was in the teens tor twenty's......oh boy we'd be screwed due to how unprepared we are.
 
Do you think that the USA is handling things more or less competently than Italy and Spain?

As far as scaling hospital capacity and taking all of the other precautions necessary to try to limit hospital overload, the US is handling things incredibly well, now that the US has accepted what's coming. It's impressive.

I still worry that we're not taking future lives lost (due to the economy) into account. But from the perspective of someone working in healthcare in a hard hit area, the short term response is incredible. So much innovation happening so quickly.
 
False, the tests are 99% sensitive. I've covered this repeatedly. Almost all tests being done are PCRs, they are both highly sensitive, and highly specific.

The downside it they take a while to run.
Link ?

I've read reports of the PCRs being 70% to 80% sensitive.

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200432

There was a discussion on this in Covid sub-reddit, I can't find now as the search isn't working for some reason.

COVID-19
 
Thankfully this whole thing will hopefully prepare the world for the event of a more serious threat because yes....if the mortality rates was in the teens tor twenty's......oh boy we'd be screwed due to how unprepared we are.
That's what Korea did, and maybe we'll do(but I doubt it). They got absolutely crushed by Swine Flu in 2015 and put some pretty impressive measures in place to make sure it didn't happen again. And they executed.

The odds we can plan or execute are very slim.
 
Link ?

I've read reports of the PCRs being 70% to 80% sensitive.

https://pubs.rsna.org/doi/10.1148/radiol.2020200432

There was a discussion on this in Covid sub-reddit, I can't find now as the search isn't working for some reason.

COVID-19

PCR is the gold standard. It's the confirmatory test for everything else out there, has been for over a decade for every viral test we do. Even ELISAs are better than 70-80%.

In theory there could be some poorly designed kits out there (I've read this of the one that the Russians are using - made by their own state-sponsored company), but the ones in the US have good sensitivity and specificity.

This is the company that is doing the "less than 1 hour" PCR that was announced on Friday (Cepheid GeneXpert Xpress). They don't have their SARS-CoV-2 data updated on there yet (few companies do), but I would point to their other viral data and how they are all near or approaching 100%.

For a virus that mutates LESS than Influenza, this should be a fantastic test.
https://p.widencdn.net/jdgicj/Cepheid-GeneXpert-Xpress-System-Brochure-US-IVD-0688-English

Sadly, I ran PCRs ALL the time, and even a decade ago they were recognized as being "the perfect" test. You literally are sequencing part of the virus everytime you run a PCR. If the sequence doesn't "amplify", there is no signal on the detector. No signal = negative result.

As long as the PCR primers are well-designed for the viral RNA, the test is fantastic (and everyone has had the virus's RNA sequence for 3 months now).
 
That's technically correct, but it misses the point about people being scared to be tested positive because a hospital stay will bankrupt them. So rather than getting treatment early, they wait until it's too late all the while spreading the virus.

I practiced for a significant time, much of it on the "front line". I never once saw a patient that was REALLY sick that declined to be treated because they were concerned of bankruptcy. AFTER the fact, they were concerned about costs, yes. This is a fun talking point for those that favor socialized medicine, but not one that fits well with the facts. So let me throw out the other talking point:

SOCIALIZED MEDICINE AND RATIONED CARE
I have a cousin that is a doctor in Toronto, and he was visiting just in Dec and we talked about the differences in medical systems between the two countries. We were both very open in the discussion and wanted to hear the other's perspective, not trying to push any biases we might have. Without anyone prompting, he openly admitted that in the Canadian system has a substantial flaw and that as an Internal Medicine physician, they actively ration care in the system. The sickest patients in theory get bumped up to the front of the line, but even with that it can still be months before they see the specialist they need to and get the treatment they need, and he openly admitted that many of them DIE WAITING FOR CARE. He believes that because of the rising costs of healthcare in Canada (yep, they have the same problem we do) that the administrators of that system actively refuse to add capacity (and increase costs) and "bleed off" some of the sickest patients by letting them die before they get the care they need. This is why the rich in Canada (prevented from buying insurance there), come to the US for treatment to "bypass the lines" in their own country.

Both systems have their flaws, and they are significant. The Mainstream Media keeps pushing the positives of socialized medicine without wanting to acknowledge the flaws that come with that system.
 
Not to be rude, but you've apparently chosen your moniker in rare wisdom.

While you're here, I'd love to hear your take on everything.

I'm personally concerned about trading future lives for present lives. I have my own ideas about how to optimize things, but I think you might be uniquely (on this forum) qualified to weigh in. You were an epidemiologist during one of your many broad, and varied careers, correct?
 
I practiced for a significant time, much of it on the "front line". I never once saw a patient that was REALLY sick that declined to be treated because they were concerned of bankruptcy. AFTER the fact, they were concerned about costs, yes. This is a fun talking point for those that favor socialized medicine, but not one that fits well with the facts. So let me throw out the other talking point:

SOCIALIZED MEDICINE AND RATIONED CARE
I have a cousin that is a doctor in Toronto, and he was visiting just in Dec and we talked about the differences in medical systems between the two countries. We were both very open in the discussion and wanted to hear the other's perspective, not trying to push any biases we might have. Without anyone prompting, he openly admitted that in the Canadian system has a substantial flaw and that as an Internal Medicine physician, they actively ration care in the system. The sickest patients in theory get bumped up to the front of the line, but even with that it can still be months before they see the specialist they need to and get the treatment they need, and he openly admitted that many of them DIE WAITING FOR CARE. He believes that because of the rising costs of healthcare in Canada (yep, they have the same problem we do) that the administrators of that system actively refuse to add capacity (and increase costs) and "bleed off" some of the sickest patients by letting them die before they get the care they need. This is why the rich in Canada (prevented from buying insurance there), come to the US for treatment to "bypass the lines" in their own country.

Both systems have their flaws, and they are significant. The Mainstream Media keeps pushing the positives of socialized medicine without wanting to acknowledge the flaws that come with that system.

UK’s approach has been even worse than Canada. System is starved for funds.