Coronavirus

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I've been relying on this site for stats (although the stats do undergo corrections often): United States Coronavirus: 32,356 Cases and 414 Deaths - Worldometer

Can I rely on this for reasonable approximations on the actual cases of infections and deaths?

Based on a few days stats, it seems the rate of growth seems to under control (non-exponential) in CA, possibly due to all the early local (county level) shelter-at-home directives before the statewide one was issued.

 

[ohmman]

Our "growth" will expand as rapidly as we catch up with testing. Not an indication of actual spread.

At this moment, Johns Hopkins site is reporting 27004 cases of COVID19 with 347 deaths attributed to it, that's a 1.2 % death rate for persons identified as having the virus. Nobody knows right now but let's just say there are at least 10x that number with COVID19 that have not been identified. That would make current death rate in the USA of 0.12% which is same as influenza. Can't predict the future but those are the facts, right now, on 3/22/202 at 1:19pm est.

In case you didn't get the memo, the posters of this thread have entered a new phase. Statistical observations, now that they're actually available, are to be ignored as background noise.

I'm having a hard time understanding your position on the statistics. First, you appear to think they're worthless. Then, @Rotte posts some statistics and adds a random "10x" factor in (which we have no support for at this point) to create a number that is most certainly not a fact. But that one, you are great with. Those statistical observations are totally to be accepted.

Maybe you can clarify your position on which statistics are valid - is it only the ones that support your thesis (which honestly is also unclear to me) or do you have other criteria for validation?

 

[SageBrush]

The goal isn't laboratory-grade testing but rather simple screening.

We could have a really fancy device that takes temperature.

Or an even fancier device that asks about symptoms, programmable for the infection at hand. E.g., the super duper doodad ($1M a pop) would ask the following questions:

1. Any 'allergy' or Sinus symptoms ?
2. Runny nose ?
3. Cough ?
4. Shortness of breath ?

 

[Jetex Jim]

Explanation; disproportionate reactions are bad because they carry secondary consequences.

Over 4 million annual deaths related to air pollution and 8 million annual deaths related to smoking don't seem to worry the average Joe, at all. But now he's heading for the toilet paper.

And let's not forget, the option to do nothing always has a certain appeal.

But the people who are advocating let it rip seem to be the younger crowd, the ones who possibly see themselves as being immune.

Fair enough, we all make choices based on our own personal circumstances (regardless of how we present ourselves on anonymous forums) But here in Germany (where we have very good statistics) the age range for most fatalities has been between 35 and 59 years old, nobody is trying to explain why.

Maybe a few of the let her rip advocates should reflect on that?

Edited to show the 35-59 percentile.

 

[Daniel in SD]

the age range for most fatalities has been between 40 and 50 years old, nobody is trying to explain why.

Maybe that's the age group most likely to be traveling around the world and getting infected so they are a disproportionate number of the early cases. Just a theory.

 

[X Fan]

My son is hearing that some NYC hospitals are approaching Italy type conditions with PPE stock exhausted and hospital beds full.

His hospital in NC has sufficient supply right now and only a couple of Covid patients.

NY State has closed down 16 hospitals over the years which would be needed right now.

Sadly, the poor of course will suffer the most.

Hospital Closures and Medicaid Shifts Took Toll on NYC's Health

 

[MD70]

A Medical Worker Describes Terrifying Lung Failure From COVID-19 — Even in His Young Patients — ProPublica

For anyone who thinks this is like the flu or it’s no big deal for younger people.

 

[eevee-fan]

And let's not forget, the option to do nothing always has a certain appeal.

But the people who are advocating let it rip seem to be the younger crowd, the ones who possibly see themselves as being immune.

Fair enough, we all make choices based on our own personal circumstances (regardless of how we present ourselves on anonymous forums) But here in Germany (where we have very good statistics) the age range for most fatalities has been between 40 and 50 years old, nobody is trying to explain why.

Maybe a few of the let her rip advocates should reflect on that?

Not just the young but also some, let's say 50%, of the well insured and financially stable lawmarkers and govt officials who told us it is no big deal.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Maybe you can clarify your position on which statistics are valid - is it only the ones that support your thesis (which honestly is also unclear to me) or do you have other criteria for validation?

Fair enough.

I guess my problem with the first case of looking at US case growth by starting with results of the first few days we did widespread testing is that we're purely measuring the growth rate of testing availability. Extrapolating that out is just silly.

As for reaction to the mortality rate....we did precisely the same thing 10 years ago when Swine Flu hit. Consensus predictions were a 2-3% mortality rate and it ended up at a bit below .2% when all was said and done. Now that this virus is trending that way as well, in actual statistical reality, no one wants to even acknowledge it.

Yes, deaths will trail cases by quite a bit. And yes, assuming 10x cases is arbitrary. But there's plenty of cumulative statistical evidence that says we're doing far more harm than good by freaking out and locking down.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Maybe that's the age group most likely to be traveling around the world and getting infected so they are a disproportionate number of the early cases. Just a theory.

Also, that's not really a accurate assessment anyways. A more accurate assessment is the actual percentage of people in that age group that are infected and have died. The death rate of elderly that get the virus is much higher than 40-50 age group.....there just haven't been nearly as many elderly that have gotten the disease as people in the 40-50 age group. As you mentioned, the vast majority of the elderly are not traveling, are not outside and in contact with people.

 

[Lasairfion]

I can't say that I've personally experienced the US healthcare system. I've only used the UK and Australian systems.

The UK system works fairly well, but is under a lot of pressure right now. It's underfunded true, but also short because too many people use it but don't pay for it. That's down to high levels of unemployment in the UK (non National Insurance-payers), non-citizens using it while they live here and EU tourists who use it, but then their government doesn't pay their reciprocal healthcare costs (I'm looking at you, France and Germany).

Personally I think the Ozzie system is a pretty good balance of basic to intermediate care via the social system with a top-up style private care option. I would like to see an Australian style top-up for private healthcare option rather than, essentially, having to pay twice, as a working person for both National Insurance and monthly private healthcare costs (no actually I personally don't have this, I can't afford it).

I do think that there are cases where certain patients just aren't economical to treat and therefore more expensive options just don't happen on the NHS. But based on long discussions with various friends over in the States, some of whom are on disability and thus do get medical help, I still feel that our system works better than the US.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Fair enough, we all make choices based on our own personal circumstances (regardless of how we present ourselves on anonymous forums) But here in Germany (where we have very good statistics) the age range for most fatalities has been between 35 and 59 years old, nobody is trying to explain why.

Maybe a few of the let her rip advocates should reflect on that?

The reason deaths are mostly 35-59 is that's by far the largest group of cases in Germany. And nearly none of them are dying. Less than 50 in that age group.

My favorite Tesla motors club forum pastime is posting about the logical activities of Germans. Primarily in the renewable energy world, but I bet this is related. Old people are staying indoors, logical steps are being taken voluntarily as was the case in Korea.

 

[Daniel in SD]

As for reaction to the mortality rate....we did precisely the same thing 10 years ago when Swine Flu hit. Consensus predictions were a 2-3% mortality rate and it ended up at a bit below .2% when all was said and done. Now that this virus is trending that way as well, in actual statistical reality, no one wants to even acknowledge it.

The mortality rate (the way you seem be calculating it) in Korea keeps going up. Why?

Yes, deaths will trail cases by quite a bit. And yes, assuming 10x cases is arbitrary. But there's plenty of cumulative statistical evidence that says we're doing far more harm than good by freaking out and locking down.

What statistical evidence?

 

[TheGrimSweeper]

Elon and team deliver 50k masks to Seattle doctor / hospital at no cost.

50,000 N95 masks delivered to UW researcher’s home thanks to Elon Musk, Tesla

 

[Daniel in SD]

I guess my problem with the first case of looking at US case growth by starting with results of the first few days we did widespread testing is that we're purely measuring the growth rate of testing availability. Extrapolating that out is just silly.

What about extrapolating out the deaths?

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Even in the short term it's not possible to keep the elderly totally isolated from the younger group. The defining characteristics of this disease is it's extreme contagiousness from infected people who are showing no symptoms.

But hey, by all means wait for more data. (And, presumably, put those scenes in Italian ICUs on ignore)

Edit: You deleted your post but I'll still post this.

It's more possible than keeping the global economy halted for 4-5 months. People literally do not understand the ramifications of a global economical shutdown for that long. They can't look past how they might individually be affected and understand what it means for countries and how other countries rely on countries and the implications it does to their citizens.

The scenario you played out is going to be the exact same scenario when social distancing and the city lockdowns end. Why? Because you cannot patrol the world. Individual countries much like individual states to individual cities are going to chose to do what they want. Seattle can practically eliminate the virus outbreak here with the steps we're doing and then someone from a highly infected state could fly into Seattle and start the whole thing over again. How do people not see this?

People need to come to terms that people are going to die from this.....more than from the flu and that extraordinary efforts to need to take place to protect the elderly, even if it's against their will. At least in my scenario, herd immunity can start to happen naturally in the age groups that handle this virus well. If you have to extend the quarantine for citizens older than 50 to like 6-8 weeks, so be it. But by the time they would be back in the population, statistically, most of the population should have gotten it if they're going to get it and will be well past the contagion point.

 

[bkp_duke]

If there ends out one benefit from the present catastrophe it might be the the world will engage in greater cooperation to manage such outbreaks and prevent the ones that might be prevented. Somehow this needs to be transformed from a partisan political view to a rational scientific one.

Is that possible?

I would love to see a world-wide equivalent to the Manhattan Project, except for vaccines.
1) establish better data sharing world-wide (without the politics of the WHO)
2) provide a @#$% ton of money for research for better vaccine production mechanisms (i.e. the gears in the machine)
3) provide money to literally wipe out every respiratory pathogen that infects humans. This is possible, just no one has had the motive to do it until now

The only groups I could see that would possibly be against a collaboration like this are the anti-vaxers

 

[Jetex Jim]

The reason deaths are mostly 35-59 is that's by far the largest group of cases in Germany. And nearly none of them are dying. Less than 50 in that age group.

My favorite Tesla motors club forum pastime is posting about the logical activities of Germans. Primarily in the renewable energy world, but I bet this is related. Old people are staying indoors, logical steps are being taken voluntarily as was the case in Korea.

Yes, deaths are still very low in Germany, less than a 100 for almost 25000 recorded infections. Possibly related to the very high ratio of ICU to population.

Yes, people are voluntarily staying in doors and have been avoiding unnecessary social contact.

But this is Germany. Do you imagine that the same conditions will/do apply in the USA?

 

[bkp_duke]

The UK system works fairly well, but is under a lot of pressure right now. It's underfunded true, but also short because too many people use it but don't pay for it. That's down to high levels of unemployment in the UK (non National Insurance-payers), non-citizens using it while they live here and EU tourists who use it, but then their government doesn't pay their reciprocal healthcare costs (I'm looking at you, France and Germany).

I swear that sounds just like what some people envision for the US future system. Healthcare for everyone, including anyone that comes into the country. No well-thought-out plan to pay for it except the buzz phrase "tax the rich".

 

[Cosmacelf]

There are so many website now come to show coronavirus news and information. I have seen your this website also. But I think this website was copied from another website. However, Thank you to create this website. I found another website that update very frequently maybe every hour. And there I can find MOD-Deleted Malicious Thread by Banned Poster (thank you, @Cosmacelf).
I think this one also great. I no need to go one website for news and another website for data.

Hey mods, this link is probably malicious. At least McAfee thinks so.