I found this webpage today, seems pretty interesting. I guess we'll see how well the model holds up. I haven't read through all of their assumptions. Obviously, depending on what is done to restrict travel between states, it will dramatically impact the results even at this point. (I don't know whether their upper and lower bounds account for some of this uncertainty - which is huge.)
Looks like peak deaths on ~April 14th, with integrated deaths around ~81k. Lots of nice plots you can scroll around, etc. Also has state by state breakdown so you can see the delays on peaks in different states. I should note that I've seen models showing a much more optimistic model for Oregon, for example - so I hope that this is all way too pessimistic.
IHME | COVID-19 Projections
All pretty horrifying. I hope they are wrong, though these numbers were within my expectations. Aligns fairly well with my wild guess of a few days ago of ~10,000 deaths by the end of next week. I'd say peak fear will probably show up next week!
Seems very unlikely that the lockdown will be able to stop until the end of May - and then only in some states. Note that practically, the upper and lower bounds don't make much difference (maybe 1-2 weeks) to when we can "stop." (Whatever "stop" means.) I guess the good news is we should have plenty of time to plan the exit strategy! "Plenty" when it comes to this administration may not be enough time though.
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