Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Coronavirus

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
There little to zero risk of hospitalization for the 49 and under crowd, let alone death. Isolate the at risk, distance rationally, and open back up in a tiered fashion. No bars or restaurant level congregation til vaccine/herd immunity/etc. What's the problem?
Um, no. Emergency physician here in New Mexico. I worked last night and we admitted several critically ill Covid patients. We have admitted many many patients under 49, intubated some, and unfortunately some quite young patients have died in my hospital. We have doubled our ICU census, and the emergency department is getting close to pre Covid numbers.
Overall volume lower because elective surgeries were cancelled and people have been avoiding the ER like the plague, which is understandable, since it is riskier to be in a hospital for anyone right now. We are seeing the consequences of delayed care now, with ruptured appendicitis and people sicker than they otherwise might have been ore pandemic. But arguing that there is no problem because hospitals are not super busy is simply wrong. New Mexico had the highest number of daily confirmed positives yesterday, and that is with some of the strongest measures taken early by any state.
 
They are uncommon and just the use of one has VERY HIGH rates of complication.

I'm sure some facilities will use them, because:
1) they are available to them
2) they can drive revenue for the hospital in a time when elective procedures don't exist

But honestly, as a physician, I would have to think twice about being put on one of these. I might just tell them to pull the plug and let me die first.
I gotcha. My point was that some people, like my family, seem to have much more tolerance for pain, discomfort, and disability, and while most providers would rather go than be put on certain kinds of support, others like us may not share that preference. In my experience providers tend to assume everyone is like they are, which is somewhat invalidating, frustrating, and annoying depending on the context.
 
There little to zero risk of hospitalization for the 49 and under crowd,

The current distribution of patients over here has 15% under 15 and 25% between 50 and 65.

Two points:
-15% is not "essentially zero" (witness the general wailing and gnashing of teeth in the investors' thread when the stock price drops 15% ;-) ).
-in the age bracket 50-65 a lot of people (including me) are also economically active, and that age bracket makes up roughly 25%. You can't isolate these without a drastic effect on the economy.

15%+25% is definitely not "essentially zero", although it's indeed not yet a majority.

Not to mention that the 65+ are being cared for by younger people, so increasing the prevalence of COVID-19 in the 50- population and still hoping that they'll be "isolated" is a recipe for failure anyway -- leaky quarantines of small sets of people don't work and often create a lot of little Petri dishes where the disease spreads very rapidly once there is a breach.

Epidemiologists are rightly skeptical of people waving hands and saying we should "just" fence off those more at risk, because they know the historical precedents and the success rate of those tactics.
 
There little to zero risk of hospitalization for the 49 and under crowd, let alone death.

Define little. Give links.

^^^

Please @TheTalkingMule, provide some actual data. My rough understanding is infection fatality rate/ratio for my age group of 40-49 is about 0.1% to 0.4%. This is frighteningly high. I am not going back to work anywhere until it is much, much safer. I am lucky enough to be able to have this be an option (I might even be able to keep my job!). For many people, it is not an option.

From an investment perspective, I actually think Elon's ranting will be helpful.

Certainly helpful for me, I suppose, from a super-cynical and selfish perspective. TSLA taking a nice dump this morning. Which I suppose is great since I sold a bunch at $800. Too bad I didn't hold for after hours, though!

Not sure about the long-term prospects, though!
 
Um, no. Emergency physician here in New Mexico. I worked last night and we admitted several critically ill Covid patients. We have admitted many many patients under 49, intubated some, and unfortunately some quite young patients have died in my hospital. We have doubled our ICU census, and the emergency department is getting close to pre Covid numbers.
Overall volume lower because elective surgeries were cancelled and people have been avoiding the ER like the plague, which is understandable, since it is riskier to be in a hospital for anyone right now. We are seeing the consequences of delayed care now, with ruptured appendicitis and people sicker than they otherwise might have been ore pandemic. But arguing that there is no problem because hospitals are not super busy is simply wrong. New Mexico had the highest number of daily confirmed positives yesterday, and that is with some of the strongest measures taken early by any state.
Pardon me, should have said "healthy 49 and under crowd", though I did also say anyone at risk with underlying conditions should still isolate.

Plenty of 30-50 year olds are very much at risk of hospitalization or death. Diabetics, heart conditions....

The point is, the hospitals are in fact half empty.
 
It's the end of April and new cases do seem to be slowing dramatically.

A month and a half ago this thread was flipping out that at a minimum 1M Americans were about to die and that doubled if we don't execute well. I would call that over-hyped.

I haven't been following Elon's tweets, but I haven't seen much of him latching onto the "freedoms" bandwagon. Yesterday he said Silicon...

This is where I stopped and checked Elon's Twitter feed.............Yikes. Not a good look the past 24hrs. Other than that, his general stance had been generally correct.

My Doctor told me if I didn't take the antidote that the poison would spread through my body and kill me. I took the antidote. It's been two weeks and I didn't die. My doctor must have overreacted. He's dumb.
k61XTbz.png
 
a lot of the fringe right and Elon now keeps stressing this whole thing that COVID deaths are overcounted because they think scores of people are being misclassified as COVID deaths. have any of these idiots looked at pure amount of deaths in nyc and elsewhere for these months?

Unfortunately to most motivated right wing idealogues, facts are irrelevant. Even the most carefully derived and validated facts can be explained as cooked up and falsified as part of a conspiracy to foster Deep State control, inhibit the free market and promote socialist values, etc etc.
 
I posted the NYC statistics a while back, not digging them up again just because nobody wants to absorb them. Almost no healthy women under 50 died in NYC(thru maybe mid-april anyway). No one in this thread is interested in those actual statistics.

Nope. Wrong conclusion. People are tired of interacting with you. I'm actually going to put you on ignore after this response. I suspect a lot of people have you on ignore. And again it's not because they don't want to debate interpretations of Statistics. It's because interacting with someone who is a motivated denier is tiresome and eventually toxic.
 
Here's my wild speculation for the day. A lot of the illness we're seeing isn't just because of COVID-19, it's because of other concurrent viral infections. If COVID-19 has the ability to mediate it's host's immune system to stick around for longer than it would otherwise, that could allow other latent viruses (eg herpesviruses) to wake up and do their thing, so to speak, and allow opportunistic infections by other seasonal viruses (influenza, RSV, etc...). If that's correct (may not be), what initially starts out as a COVID-19 outbreak, can potentially turn into a COVID-19, HSV-1...n, Influenza, etc.. outbreak if we don't slow things down quickly.
 
Last edited:
I posted the NYC statistics a while back, not digging them up again just because nobody wants to absorb them. Almost no healthy women under 50 died in NYC(thru maybe mid-april anyway). No one in this thread is interested in those actual statistics.

It's 46%/54% women/men in NYC. So 1500 women below the age of 64 have died in NYC.

The IFR is about 0.136%*4 = 0.55% for people between 45 & 64 in NYC. That is incredibly high.

These are all minimum numbers (not including probable and uncounted).

Try using facts once in a while. If you can find the % of deaths with no co-morbidities from NYC to complete your "almost no healthy women" statement, do let me now.

Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 11.02.13 AM.png
 

Attachments

  • Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 11.01.55 AM.png
    Screen Shot 2020-04-30 at 11.01.55 AM.png
    90 KB · Views: 38
My Doctor told me if I didn't take the antidote that the poison would spread through my body and kill me. I took the antidote. It's been two weeks and I didn't die. My doctor must have overreacted. He's dumb.
Again.... we're 4.25% of the global population and over 27% of the CV deaths. We have no antidote, that's the whole point.

Our response has been illogical, ineffective, and will likely end up killing more people than the virus.
 
I posted the NYC statistics a while back, not digging them up again just because nobody wants to absorb them. Almost no healthy women under 50 died in NYC(thru maybe mid-april anyway). No one in this thread is interested in those actual statistics.
But honestly, who is “healthy.” I wouldn’t fit in the 49 and healthy category myself. I find this kind of thinking bizarre. It is also strange that this TMC membership that so easily understands projections involving EVs adoption and carbon emissions has such a hard time wrapping their heads around this issue, which is basically a math problem and has enormous population-scale consequences.
 
Nope. Wrong conclusion. People are tired of interacting with you. I'm actually going to put you on ignore after this response. I suspect a lot of people have you on ignore. And again it's not because they don't want to debate interpretations of Statistics. It's because interacting with someone who is a motivated denier is tiresome and eventually toxic.
So nothing then?

You need to admit you simply don't want to look at statistics which don't fit your worldview. These are actual statistics from the hottest hot spot in the US that is slowly recovering.
 
So 1500 women below the age of 64 have died in NYC.

The IFR is about 0.136%*4 = 0.55% for people between 45 & 64 in NYC. That is incredibly high.
Yes, that is correct. And something like 94% of them had a significant underlying health issue. So that's 90 healthy female deaths in a city with 4,400,000 women.

Edit: and that's under 65, not under 50.

You have no denominator for your "incredibly high" IFR which magically disappears in any properly tested population.