Coronavirus

[azaz]

I agree that Musk appears out of touch on the issue of public health measures related to COVID-19. With respect to TSLA, I don't make the mistake of conflating Musk's (lack of) epidemiological prowess with his engineering brilliance and outstanding business acumen. Oversimplifying in that regard would, ironically, be making the same mistake as Elon -- just in a different way.

I have lost zero sleep with respect to my TSLA investment since his outburst, wrong as I think he is.

I agree for the most part, but he's damaging Tesla's brand so much. People are literally talking about never buying or selling their Tesl

Musk genuinely just doesn’t think the IFR is more than .2 or so. He’s stuck to his priors that this virus just isn’t all that bad. I think it’s why you don’t see a smarter argument from him pushing for re-opening. One centered around protective gear and copying the effective test and trace strategy. He’d much rather make the lunatic conspiracy minded “the death count is fake, this is govt fascism” argument.

 

[FoverM]

Again, deaths up 2,389 on 4/29 to a total of 61,655. This continues to push ultimates projected by my dumb-ass model and the 14-day model to 82,018 and 106,406, respectively.

All of you who were complaining that my model was underestimated future death rates seem to be correct. Since 4/21 when the history was properly backfilled for non-hospital deaths, this is the highest ultimate projection from dumb-ass. While there has been some weekly variability in this, the trend does seem to be upward. Perhaps the 14-day model can give us a sense of what is possible. 120k seems to be the high water mark for the last few weeks.

One important implication of these two models is that dumb-ass is projecting the daily death rate will fall below 200 by May 27, while the 14-day model is projecting this to happen by June 19. I don't know that 200 deaths per day is the best threashold to focus on, but below some threshold most of us may be able to agree that lockdown measures are no longer necessary. That threshold is largely a political decision, but it seems to me the lower the death rate goes the easier it is for the politics to shift to more openness.

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Where are you getting your data? I ask because the covidtracking.com and JHU data is suspect right now. Their data for MA does not match that from the official MA website.

 

[jhm]

Where are you getting your data? I ask because the covidtracking.com and JHU data is suspect right now. Their data for MA does not match that from the official MA website.

I've been using Worldometer. Seems to agree with MA website.

 

[Darkfox021]

This article just popped up in my google feed. Seems to be a promising angle on the treatment front.

We found and tested 47 old drugs that might treat the coronavirus: Results show promising leads and a whole new way to fight COVID-19

 

[RobStark]

Take a look at Nembro in Italy. Last year, on average, 10 people/month died.

COVID-Related Deaths Are Much Higher Than Reported — And Soon We’ll Know How Much

Covid-19’s death toll appears higher than official figures suggest

There were 142 deaths there in March, in a town of 11,500 people, which is a 1.15% fatality rate. Replicate that across the whole US and you'll see millions of Americans dead. And sure, many of them may not be classified as Coronavirus fatalities, but if it swings through an area, and the death rate increases by an order of magnitude, what else would be causing those deaths?

That town is 36 miles from downtown Milan.

You think that same fatality rate will sweep across the entire US?

 

[GoEV]

I love what Musk and his team have accomplished w/ EVs, solar, boring and his hyperloop proposal, etc. I'm also VERY much in favor of space exploration by robots, but really disappointed by his preference to spend billions/trillions building colonies on such a deadly and awful place like Mars. I'm also hugely disappointed by his personal attack of the scuba guy who was trying to help the kids in Thailand, his tweeting about going private, and particularly his rant about what he calls fascist quarantining because of covid 19. He's amazing on so many things, but he seems like an impulsive child at times unlike some of the better leaders of today and in the past. Love my M3, but wish Musk would stop his rants for the sake of all the employees that work in his companies and the world which needs the good things they're working on.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

so uhm, the rate of new cases, positives and deaths in the country has been flattening instead of declining again the last two days. deeply worrying.

He's added a caveat to that thread. The increase in testing is likely resulting in case counts that "count" less. 30k cases today might mean 150-200k actual cases. Whereas 30k cases 2 weeks ago might have meant 300k actual cases.

I think there is hope for continuing declines (ultimately deaths in a couple weeks will be an indicator of what was happening right now). The more testing we do, I suspect the lower the transmission rate will go. It helps when people know they are positive, and can notify their contacts. This leads to more caution. So hopefully we'll keep seeing those testing numbers increase (no budging for the last 5-6 days).

So there is some hope, though it is slim, especially in the presence of all these unlocking measures.

It's really weird, because we seem to be cautiously exiting lockdown in many states at what appears to be the worst possible time (in some states it may actually make sense, this is not a blanket statement). We want to exit lockdown in a couple weeks when (hopefully) the cases have dropped off a lot.

 

[azaz]

I know it’s been pointed out but the lack of central quarantine zones as part of a lockdown reopening strategy is so dumb

 

[EVNow]

I dread 420 tweet and reaction to it visiting us all over again this month … I can see a complete meltdown if CA pushes out stay-at-home order.

BTW, the Republican governor of Arizona did just that. A small relaxation to the existing rules but most rules stay for another 2 weeks. Inslee in WA made some small changes (like allowing some construction work to resume). I can see CA do something similar ….

 

[Norbert]

Again.... we're 4.25% of the global population and over 27% of the CV deaths. We have no antidote, that's the whole point.

Our response has been illogical, ineffective, and will likely end up killing more people than the virus.

Major difficulties with identifying cause and effect?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I dread 420 tweet and reaction to it visiting us all over again this month …

Yep. Definitely something to think about with investment decisions here. Always tricky to know why things happen with stock market prices, but a decay from $880 today down to $760 now seems like it might be somewhat connected to the latest insanity (especially since the earnings news was mostly positive).

It's unsettling as a stock holder, to say the least. Think this sort of ranting and raving from the CEO of a company that is ostensibly striving to do good in the world is troubling. And as I've mentioned, it seems like it may have real (negative) effects on demand. However, maybe he'll win over some right-wingers - maybe he's looking to the don't-treat-on-me/red-state contingent as his next market to break into (I guess it would make some sense with Cybertruck coming!)... Gotta be a hero in everyone's eyes!

 

[kbM3]

Haven't we been waiting on a Moody's upgrade since before P&D? I remember it being discussed on the forum.

Moody’s is awaiting the last criterion they set that Tesla demonstrate they can reliably produce 250k Model 3’s per year

I love what Musk and his team have accomplished w/ EVs, solar, boring and his hyperloop proposal, etc. I'm also VERY much in favor of space exploration by robots, but really disappointed by his preference to spend billions/trillions building colonies on such a deadly and awful place like Mars. I'm also hugely disappointed by his personal attack of the scuba guy who was trying to help the kids in Thailand, his tweeting about going private, and particularly his rant about what he calls fascist quarantining because of covid 19. He's amazing on so many things, but he seems like an impulsive child at times unlike some of the better leaders of today and in the past. Love my M3, but wish Musk would stop his rants for the sake of all the employees that work in his companies and the world which needs the good things they're working on.

Elon just personally attacked some scuba guy? Really?

Elon was spending his own personal wealth, his company’s resources in a race against time to help in any way possible the boys trapped in the cave, when Unsworth with zero provocation told him he could stick the sub up his a**. Unswortth behaved beyond despicably and it is quite hilarious that you characterize him as just some scuba guy who Elon for apparently no reason decided to attack.

Really?

 

[renim]

'You can't compare': New Zealand looks on Australia's loose lockdown with envy – and horror

Has New Zealand really done better than Australia in controlling coronavirus? - ABC News

 

[azaz]

I dread 420 tweet and reaction to it visiting us all over again this month … I can see a complete meltdown if CA pushes out stay-at-home order.

BTW, the Republican governor of Arizona did just that. A small relaxation to the existing rules but most rules stay for another 2 weeks. Inslee in WA made some small changes (like allowing some construction work to resume). I can see CA do something similar ….

Larry Ellison was a really bad choice as a board member. He’s pushed Elon’s worst urges.

I have begun to think what a Jerome Guillen as CEO tesla would look like.

 

[renim]

Coronavirus Government Response Tracker

Not the best chart, but still very enlightening.

Taiwan is considered by their metrics to have had the nearly the lowest response yet obviously very successful.

Australia and new zealand have almost identical results despite australia response level is considered as 71 vs new zealand at 100.

Obviously lots of factors at play, but it seems with hindsight we will see that certain timely responses have very high effect, and other SAH particulars have negible or even slightly negative effects.

Which part of why covid19 is not the same as the flu, similar yes, but different too.

Protecting lives and livelihoods: the data on why New Zealand should relax its coronavirus lockdown from Thursday

 

[defc0n]

my greatest worry now other than those getting sick of course is the general populace essentially revolting due to their lifeblood being forcibly cut off.

And it begins

Rob Gill on Twitter

 

[EVNow]

We want to exit lockdown in a couple weeks when (hopefully) the cases have dropped off a lot.

I don't see that happening. As load on the testing system improves - more people with symptoms will go for testing and keep the confirmed case numbers flat. I'm also not sure most states have brought down the R below 1. Also, it is likely people will start going out more from May / next week.

We already see some states cases go up - TX, Virginia (?) etc. Their fatalities will climb too. WA is now 14th on the list - and will be surpassed by TX, CO soon.

BTW, is there a good site that shows daily confirmed case charts for all states ?

 

[EVNow]

Coronavirus Government Response Tracker

Not the best chart, but still very enlightening.

Not sure it means much.

Taiwan took measures very early - so they didn't have to lock down at all. Italy was so late to respond - a thousand dead before lockdown was imposed, so they had to be quite strict (compared to Wuhan lock down after 30 deaths).

The chart is similar to one where we are mapping the weight and diet. Someone starting very heavy will have to take severe measures to cut weight and would probably still be quite heavy during dieting. Someone starting thin would hardly make any cuts to calories and will still have low weight.

 

[TEG]

I have to confess that I share a lot of your concerns about Elon who was originally something of an entrepreneurial good guy/hero for me. I think he's still fundamentally a decent guy but there are some really troubling holes in his judgment. Not just this whole Fiasco but his association with Peter Thiel was very disturbing to me. It's not clear what happened to their relationship and whether there was a falling-out but Peter is arguably a crypto-fascist and a leading developer of the technology that will support surveillance totalitarianism. He's also a hard right alt right kind of guy, and he created a culture at PayPal that was really kind of sociopathic in terms of its incredible disregard for customers who were not rich and powerful. Usually just one encounter with customer service at PayPal was enough to make you convinced that whoever set up the basic structures and rules was in fact somewhat sociopathic.

Yeah, you wouldn't want to have a car that has cameras watching your every move, uploads videos to the cloud, downloads your phone rolodex, connects into your home Wifi router so that the company could remote shell in behind your firewall... Nope, wouldn't want someone like that to have that kind of big brother monitoring of you. Might as well throw in a custom app on your phone that knows where you are even if you are away from the car...

 

[azaz]

Not sure it means much.

Taiwan took measures very early - so they didn't have to lock down at all. Italy was so late to respond - a thousand dead before lockdown was imposed, so they had to be quite strict (compared to Wuhan lock down after 30 deaths).

The chart is similar to one where we are mapping the weight and diet. Someone starting very heavy will have to take severe measures to cut weight and would probably still be quite heavy during dieting. Someone starting thin would hardly make any cuts to calories and will still have low weight.

not enough people are grasping that how strict and effective your lockdown is depends on the level of contagion in the community

if you have a low level of spread in the community then masks+tests with tracers is sufficient perhaps. But the vast majority of the US had way too high contagion levels by start of March to make that effective