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Looks way more plausible. Thanks for the link.

You can thank Carl Bergstrom - he pointed it out on Twitter. He likes it and believes it has decent underlying fundamentals.

In the end, the totals are extremely difficult to determine (as you can see by the increasing error bars through time), since so much is dependent on what we do.

Unfortunately, I think we're aiming for the high side of these projections, at least in some locations. This is a really tricky virus! I'm shocked about how it is still going strong in San Diego - we've been in lockdown for so long, and I'm surprised we're now at our max numbers. I'm hopeful that next week we'll start to see some declines.

But this virus seems vicious and persistent.
 
As far as mis-reported deaths, I can verify that it 100% is happening. The hospital that I have inside information from will flag any death for someone that as much as coughs once, or reports having a cough, as being COVID-19 related, even if they tested negative. (Even a gun shot victim.)

I don't really buy that - it's anecdata. I'd have to hear some pretty well-documented details about multiple specific instances of this happening to really get worried.

The other thing is - this is somewhat like "election fraud" - sure it happens, occasionally, but it has no particular impact.

Fortunately we have the excess mortality numbers - and once we tease out the excess deaths due to heart attack, late appendicitis, and the reduction of deaths due to auto accidents, etc., we should be able to figure out the approximate real numbers in the end. Getting the exact count, at the population level, is not that important.

What we do know is they are horribly high. And that's what we need to know.

Not a big fan of conspiracy theories. It just requires too much contortion.
 
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As far as mis-reported deaths, I can verify that it 100% is happening. The hospital that I have inside information from will flag any death for someone that as much as coughs once, or reports having a cough, as being COVID-19 related, even if they tested negative. (Even a gun shot victim.) So yes, the death numbers are not accurate. I don't know if overall they are high or low, but they are wrong. I have no idea if they will end up going back and testing/re-testing/correcting those reports or not... Anything even tangentially COVID-19 related gets flagged to include in submitting for more government money/reimbursement. And I understand why, they are hemorrhaging money and trying to stay afloat. Most of their employees are in a contract, so they can't reduce pay and they don't want to do a big layoff.

this is nonsense, the data shows a clear undercount especially in hard hit areas. Please look at the excess death data, it isn’t hard. Normal average death amount for March through April plus the officially counted C19 deaths still shows a ton of excess death. This is why every expert says we have an undercount of C19 death, especially when you account for less auto and other movement related normal deaths
 
Distorted beyond recognition.

Liberty to not be infected when one leaves home is disregarded so that the freedom to expose one's mouth is preserved ?
This is America, and we eat liberty for breakfast!

This tyranny cannot be tolerated! Before you know it they'll be limiting our right to yell "Fire!" in a crowded theater!

Also, we're likely in a recession, not that everyone didn't already know that.

Recession Probabilities | Jeremy Piger
 
The hospital that I have inside information from will flag any death for someone that as much as coughs once, or reports having a cough, as being COVID-19 related, even if they tested negative. (Even a gun shot victim.)
Either you have valuable information you should report to police or you are have been misled by the "inside information" source. OR has very few Covid deaths, BTW.

Incentives for a state to report Covid deaths are all piled on the other side i.e. under report Covid deaths. The last thing politicians want to do is close the businesses that donate to their campaigns. But they are also afraid of a lot of people getting killed and getting blamed for that. This is why all the conspiracy theories fall flat on the face and die.
 
Honestly, some of the conversation here is just disturbing.
Covid-19 is an incredibly dangerous virus that even now has been studied well and is well understood. Even more so in countries with populations that work together as a group to overcome problems in a scientifically sound way. It is an affliction that exists, hurts all ages and will not be wished away.
The experience of countries that locked down early and have kept Covid under control is overwhelming. It’s the only course of action you can take that does not put a large part of the population at risk.
Perhaps the debate in the US, with the inject them with Lysol, sit around and do nothing for 6 weeks, and wish it away brigade shouting loudly, should be stopped.

If you’re a still real country America, swallow your pride and learn from the countries that have done better than you.
 
I highly doubt Inslee even knows the lengths Korea has gone to implement contact tracing. I would bet a solid that almost the entire US will not approve of measures that even resembles that of Korea’s tracing program. Even in a very highly liberal state like, I bet something like Korea’s program will be a hard pass.
Oh, don't underestimate Inslee so much. IMO, Inslee definitely knows about Korea & Taiwan. I won't be surprised if he has spoken to some of those leaders. He has capable epidemiologists he can rely on. But obviously you can't do everything the same way as you might do in Taiwan and Korea. Those countries put some laws in place during/after SARS that let the government track individuals in times of pandemics.

Also, we have to start with getting everyone willing to wear a mask first. I was at FedEx Kinko yesterday to ship out a package and some middle-aged customer was told to leave because he wouldn’t cooperate with the county & state mask policy, saying it violated his freedom of right.

Oh yes, WA also has a lot of "libertarian right" types. Remember we don't even have personal income tax in this state !
 
Finally WA has fallen below top 15 in terms of total fatalities. I guess we dodged a bullet - in that the virus was not as widespread by the time the first death was noticed on Feb 29th. So even though Inslee was hesitant to lockdown quickly, we didn't have a vicious outbreak like in NYC.

The sad part - TX just passed WA. Colorado probably will in a day or two. We now have 14 states with over 1k deaths.
 
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If you’re a still real country America, swallow your pride and learn from the countries that have done better than you.

I wouldn't even call it pride. To be charitable maybe say we still like the dream of the "wild west" where people do what they please.
The problem here is we are trying to follow a strategy that requires group cooperation, but we have a culture of shunning authority to be different just for the sake of being different.
 
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Not by itself. If you allow nearly a half-million people into your country from China AFTER you know there is a problem, you end up with a different kind of dispersion. SK and Iceland are basically islands without as much international traffic from China as the US.
Taiwan had 26 direct flights per day from Wuhan. They controlled the virus without lockdowns and with only testing 0.25% of their population. They had a plan in place, they kept a watchful eye on China and they sent a team to Wuhan to investigate in early January. They knew what was up even before Beijing did and they executed their plan accordingly.

Instead of outsourcing our entire medical supply chain, we should have just outsourced pandemic preparedness to Taiwan.
NYS has ~ 1000 new Covid hospitalizations a day. That works out to ~ 200 deaths a day, and using a 1% IFR it implies ~ 20,000 new infections a day. If contract tracing leads to e.g. 50 contacts per infection then the plan is to apply 14 day quarantines on 1M people a day.
SAH has failed in NYS, and barring other successful measures this test,trace and quarantine strategy just amounts to another somewhat worse SAH outcome.
These researchers say 20-30 contact per case.

Upstate NY can do test & trace if they really focus on it (and require a phone app!). But I agree that NYC is pretty much destined for herd immunity.
 
this is a respectable position but let’s be clear, it’s not the argument he’s making. the argument he’s been making from the start is that it’s overhyped. When C19 first started impacting us he claimed it was nothing to worry about, the projections and experts were wrong, he compared it to the common cold expecting it to be not much more fatal (laughably wrong and also it’s not mainly a respiratory illness at all), claimed that new infections would be over by end of April, irresponsibly promoted along with fellow board member Larry Ellison the use of hydroxycloriquine etc.

frankly being optimistic about the virus is forgivable it’s the next part which is despicable. Doubling down by claiming the stats are wrong, doctors are intubating for for money, doctors are lying, politicians are robbing people of freedoms on purpose, promoting junk science etc is abhorrent. Frankly this willingness to double down and seek out more and more fringe sources to validate your ideas instead of just admitting you are wrong is deeply troubling behavior from a CEO. And you can see why he’s become this arrogant by looking at the amount of dislikes given out in the daily thread to just mild criticism of this despicable position he holds. The fanboy-ism didn’t use to be to this level 3-4 years back. He’s been a complete idiot about C19 from the start and he’s followed all the same hydroxy will fix it, doctors are lying, give us our freedom backetc memes that denialists on the right have promoted that I wonder how much of this behavior is influenced by Larry Ellison. Ellison is right wing and was apparently instrumental in getting Trump to promote the disastrous hydroxy treatment.
 
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Looks like a broken record to me, every 6 days or so a new peak followed by a few less each day until the cycle starts again.

Opening up just turbo charges a cycle later in the week(s) to come.
 
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Finally WA has fallen below top 15 in terms of total fatalities. I guess we dodged a bullet - in that the virus was not as widespread by the time the first death was noticed on Feb 29th. So even though Inslee was hesitant to lockdown quickly, we didn't have a vicious outbreak like in NYC.

The sad part - TX just passed WA. Colorado probably will in a day or two. We now have 14 states with over 1k deaths.

Texas has ~four times the population of Washington. The whole state of Washington is barely the pop of a modern city.
 
Why would you? Totally different transportation culture and density
Well, NYC is *not* the only place where you could have outbreaks. A lot of cities that aren't like NYC have had big outbreaks. Seattle is fairly dense, uses quite a bit of public transportation - had big sports events (even after Feb 29 !), has a lot of large offices where people spend 8 hours a day in close proximity … yet in the city only 100 have died till now.
 
Upstate NY can do test & trace if they really focus on it (and require a phone app!). But I agree that NYC is pretty much destined for herd immunity.
Going by
COVID-19: Data - NYC Health
About half the population and half the daily admissions are outside of NYC. I get the impression that Erie County (Buffalo) in upstate is its own hotspot.

If NY is thinking about TTQ by region according to the activity of the week I expect failure. The epidemic just moves too fast for any kind of partial containment strategy.

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Sorry for being a broken record but I feel like it bears repeating:
The Asian success with TTQ was built on a foundation of low infectivity due to universal mask use, social distancing, and personal hygiene. The USA is missing the foundation and out of trumpian stupidity has dug a large hole instead.
 
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Upstate NY can do test & trace if they really focus on it (and require a phone app!). But I agree that NYC is pretty much destined for herd immunity.
Only people who use the app (and a mask) should be allowed to go out of home ;)

I'm only half-joking. Stay at home order - with exception being those who use the app (all the time BT turned on) and wear a mask.

<rant> Libertarian idea that we all live in a society but are not dependent on each other falls flat because … we all use common resources like air and water. So, when we use these common resources, we need to abide by some rules. Whether you use a gun or a knife or a coronavirus laden cough - its all murder. And nobody has the right to murder someone else. </rant>