Coronavirus

[jerry33]

But people spread the virus before they are symptomatic.

Correct. That's why masks, distancing, and good hygiene are essential.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

But people spread the virus before they are symptomatic.

Yep, that's true. I didn't explicitly mention that in my post, but of course that is a huge risk there as well (and combined with the risk factors of people who would visit a crowded restaurant during a pandemic, it could be quite a problem and increase that individual probability of being infected).

We'll hope for luck at that Castle Rock restaurant, in any case. It's a real crapshoot, and I don't know how many patrons they had. 200 people and it goes down to 82% chance of no infection entering the restaurant (these are really rough numbers obviously as mentioned before).

Correct. That's why masks, distancing, and good hygiene are essential.

Yeah, unfortunately didn't see a ton of that happening in the picture shown. (Adblock/paywall keeps popping up to block the picture, but I didn't see any masks in my quick perusal. Tough to wear a mask and eat. Maybe a to-go order followed by a nice picnic would have been a better call for Mom.)

FREE AMERICA NOW.

 

[TEG]

Yeah, unfortunately didn't see a ton of that happening in the picture shown. (Adblock/paywall keeps popping up to block the picture, but I didn't see any masks in my quick perusal. Tough to wear a mask and eat. Maybe a to-go order followed by a nice picnic would have been a better call for Mom.)
FREE AMERICA NOW.

Castle Rock restaurant reopens in defiance of statewide public health order

C&C Coffee and Kitchen owner wrote on Facebook that she “would go out of business if I don’t do something”

Yes... they are doing something...

( Kid in the center is covering his face to not be seen... Wait! Don't touch your face!... )

 

[Dborn]

Masks in general protect (to a point) other people not the wearer. There may be a new exception to this with the advent of washable copper and or zinc impregnated fabrics out of Israel. They claim active virucidal effect for the fabrics but I have not seen any independent studies. I do know that a relatively small consignment was sent to the USA but given that they are not disposable and can be laundered up to 100 times allegedly without loss of efficacy small numbers are actually quite large. Be good to get independent confirmation of the claim though!

interesting to read what mayhem is going on over in the USA. In Australia our TOTAL death toll for this disease is under 100!! Total nation wide caseload is around 7000. We are only now just taking VERY tentative steps out of severe economy destroying restrictions. Kids are still only going to school 1 day a week, and restaurants are still closed. Even given our population of 25 million vs 300 million for the USA, these figures are very low even compared to the best countries in Europe and the Middle East. Our numbers are even lower than New Zealand which is often quoted as a model.

 

[dhanson865]

Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[linux-works]

View attachment 540785
Elon Musk on Twitter

he can afford to get an arrest on his record. he does not have to 'work' another day in his life and he will have a roof (or many) over his head.

others - yeah, good luck applying AND getting a job if you have a jail record.

he's putting his workers into a tough situation.

good leaders don't ever do this.

musk, please check yourself in and seek help. you lost it, dude. your judgement puts your company and its people at risk.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Positive test % today was 4%. 395k tests, 18k cases.

However, there were about 110k backlog negative tests in New Jersey reported today.

Removing those, we get:

18/(395-110) = 6.3% positive (which is still good). But for the purposes of test volume, we're at less than 300k today, which is still not where we need to be.

Deaths were 837 vs. 912 a week ago, which is also good, but of course we should expect a bigger day tomorrow and Wednesday.

Overall, we just need to keep ramping up testing, but it's unclear whether the nationwide increase in superspreading incidents which will likely occur/are occurring will result in an uncontainable epidemic, with our current levels of testing & surveillance.

In San Diego, we've had three days in a row of 3k+ tests (the fourth day included some backlog), and the rolling average of positivity is 5.5% now. Recent days have had a couple days at 4%, and one day at closer to 7%. In any case, this really gives me hope for our local situation. The county goal is to get to 5k tests per day, and low positivity. And they are building up contact tracing, and conducting investigations (something like 1000 investigations a week with their 160 contact tracers, which is 1/3 of their goal of 450). I feel like we are on the verge of cutting off community spread, and then we'll have to focus on figuring out how to stop ingress issues from multiple directions (border traffic, airplanes, Los Angeles, Arizona, etc.)

We'll see about today's numbers - I hope they were able to keep up test volume over the weekend - I think that is important.

Excellent and clear article on the risk.

Basically impossible to catch outside in any normal setting.

A great article for quantifying risk. Looking forward to more and more data from epidemiologists around the country to continue to fill in the risk picture.

Erin wrote a very clear article, but I really wish he would emphasize the important of the increase in testing and talk about what the effect of that likely means, when discussing positive cases & trends.

Castle Rock restaurant reopens in defiance of statewide public health order

View attachment 540783

FREEDOM! I hope no one gets sick.

 

[N5329K]

Interesting therapeutic possibility here:

...and another OTC supplement (beyond Quercetin) to consider: N-Acetylcysteine.
It doesn't prevent COVID infection, but seems to really dial the clotting issues way, way down. The video contains a lot of high-quality, peer-reviewed information.
Robin

 

[dhanson865]

Parking lot appears full at Tesla after CEO Elon Musk sues over shelter-in-place

 

[jerry33]

Masks in general protect (to a point) other people not the wearer. There may be a new exception to this with the advent of washable copper and or zinc impregnated fabrics out of Israel. They claim active virucidal effect for the fabrics but I have not seen any independent studies.

I don't know about zinc, but raw copper takes about four hours to kill the bacteria on it's surface. This is why we have a Rachiele copper sink. It's more sanitary.

 

[traxila]

he can afford to get an arrest on his record. he does not have to 'work' another day in his life and he will have a roof (or many) over his head.

others - yeah, good luck applying AND getting a job if you have a jail record.

he's putting his workers into a tough situation.

good leaders don't ever do this.

musk, please check yourself in and seek help. you lost it, dude. your judgement puts your company and its people at risk.

Regardless of whether you agree with the action of reopening the factory, your criticism of his leadership here is incorrect.

This is exactly what good leaders do. They get on the front lines and in the trenches and offer themselves up first for sacrifice.

I have little doubt that if Alameda County actually went in to arrest anyone they would gladly take Musk in and tell the rest to disperse.

This is the sign of a great leader.

 

[bkp_duke]

Castle Rock restaurant reopens in defiance of statewide public health order

View attachment 540783

Yes... they are doing something...

( Kid in the center is covering his face to not be seen... Wait! Don't touch your face!... )

Brace for Wave 2. It won't be the fall, it will be in about a 4-6 weeks.

 

[linux-works]

Regardless of whether you agree with the action of reopening the factory, your criticism of his leadership here is incorrect.

This is exactly what good leaders do. They get on the front lines and in the trenches and offer themselves up first for sacrifice.

I have little doubt that if Alameda County actually went in to arrest anyone they would gladly take Musk in and tell the rest to disperse.

This is the sign of a great leader.

why put his people there, then? put only VPs and mgmt on the line (even though we all know they're useless there).

putting non-coms (so to speak) in any possible legal danger IS NOT LEADERSHIP. not the way I learned how leaders act.

put himself on the line, fine. that's leadership. 'asking' (its not an ask) his employees to report in - that's not leadership. that's concern about finance. lets not BS each other; we're adults here and can see thru the smokescreens.

 

[bkp_duke]

why put his people there, then? put only VPs and mgmt on the line (even though we all know they're useless there).

putting non-coms (so to speak) in any possible legal danger IS NOT LEADERSHIP. not the way I learned how leaders act.

put himself on the line, fine. that's leadership. 'asking' (its not an ask) his employees to report in - that's not leadership. that's concern about finance. lets not BS each other; we're adults here and can see thru the smokescreens.

Respectfully, disagree.

Tesla has put together a very good plan on returning to work while still mitigating risk very well, and those measures have born positive fruit out of Shanghai. They are not flying blind here.

 

[traxila]

why put his people there, then? put only VPs and mgmt on the line (even though we all know they're useless there).

putting non-coms (so to speak) in any possible legal danger IS NOT LEADERSHIP. not the way I learned how leaders act.

put himself on the line, fine. that's leadership. 'asking' (its not an ask) his employees to report in - that's not leadership. that's concern about finance. lets not BS each other; we're adults here and can see thru the smokescreens.

You make it sound like he is feeding his people to the lions on a suicide mission.

Everything appears to be black and white in your world. Good luck with that.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Tesla has put together a very good plan on returning to work while still mitigating risk very well, and those measures have born positive fruit out of Shanghai. They are not flying blind here.

I don't think Shanghai is a good test case, but it is a good sign that their casting factory has been running (how long? how many people?) and also Gigafactory in Nevada has been up (for a week) with no immediate issues. And New York Gigafactory (not sure how long they have been running and at what capacity). We will see.

These factories all have a much more comparable surrounding disease burden. The burden in Shanghai was virtually zero, so I am not sure whether their measures in Shanghai have actually been tested (and it seems very unlikely they are being tested on an ongoing basis).

Their plan, if they follow it, seems good and comprehensive, but I've outlined the remaining concerns previously (bathrooms, temp testing limitations, asymptomatic (pre-symptomatic) spread, not sure about paid unlimited sick leave being allowed for anyone who is sick or who has family who is symptomatic). I'm not sure there is anything they can do about these issues in the short term, with lack of readily available fast testing for any identified/self-identified high risk individuals.

I'd honestly be a bit surprised if they make it more than two weeks without having a minor outbreak event. But I hope I'm wrong. Hopefully they are minimizing contact circles & mobility within the factory so anything that may happen is easily contained.

 

[S4WRXTTCS]

I see concerns, but no "growing evidence" that people die at home without getting reported, in significant numbers. Not in that article.
Another explanation might be that the stay at home order gives people rest. No traffic, no work, no physical stress. But I'm no doctor. One could think of all kind of things. However we do know that traffic accidents are reduced significantly.

I should have clarified that the growing evidence is about unexplained deaths. Where we're seeing more, and more reports of unexplained deaths. I would expected the lack of traffic accidents to reduce the number of deaths. So why are there so many unexplained deaths?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-11/new-york-city-had-24-172-excess-deaths-as-outbreak-accelerated

The growing fear is that people are dying not from Covid-19, but from other things.

Now maybe there is an easy explanation like they could be Covid-19 deaths where they simply decided against going to the doctor, and then they died. They weren't tested so they don't officially fall under Covid-19 deaths.

The Mystery of ‘Excess Fatality’

 

[SMAlset]

I don't know about zinc, but raw copper takes about four hours to kill the bacteria on it's surface. This is why we have a Rachiele copper sink. It's more sanitary.

Is that one of the reasons why copper was used in water lines in houses?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

So why are there so many unexplained deaths?

Now maybe there is an easy explanation like they could be Covid-19 deaths where they simply decided against going to the doctor, and then they died. They weren't tested so they don't officially fall under Covid-19 deaths.

I think that the easy, obvious explanation is the most likely one. For sure there will be some excess mortality caused by people not going to the doctor for other ailments for fear of coronavirus (a problem that needs to be given high priority!), but it seems highly improbable that mortality from those causes would exceed the number of excess coronavirus deaths, given the incredible amount of known death from coronavirus. (It's not uncommon at all for deaths to be undercounted in disease outbreaks like this (see flu season differences between confirmed and estimated cases on the CDC website!), so that's the likely cause here as well, though clearly the undercount (estimated cases to confirmed cases ratio) will be a bit less severe in a high visibility epidemic such as this one.)

 

[kbM3]

Err, that's actually very terrible way to doing science. A lot fo great discovery is actually coming from people with no formal degrees.

Srinivasa Ramanujan - Wikipedia

Science does not care about your title, status or experience. You have right to question and the fact can be derived and reproduced in truth-able manner.

I knew a lot of professors could barely derive the math no better than high school graduate that passed the math AP class. Their technical skills have been regressed to administration and file proposal for government funding.

If you looked at COVID-Sim wrote by Imperial College, oh my, that's the worst code I have ever seen:
mrc-ide/covid-sim

This version already has cleaned up but still in bad shape.
No design doc, no review, no unit testing, no formal statical model proving. The same conditions will yield different results.
And this is what politicians used to drive the policy, justifying the limit of civil rights and damage of economics.

The code being used by Space Shuttle program has went through much more rigorous review, just to protect 7 people.
Even weather prediction model is much better shape.

When your data and model are both compromised, misinformation will follow.
In this case, it is even worse because the source of truth has been compromised.

When the entire civilization is on halt, yes, people have right to question that.

This topic is extremely pertinent to Tesla investing (before the mods ban it).

during the conference call, it was stated that Tesla has modeled several different scenarios, and believe they are financially equipped to handle all of them. I would like to believe, that they have modeled a realistic worst case scenario, where we do enter a multi year depression, have trouble stopping coronavirus, and there is a big worldwide drop in demand of automobiles of all types. In such a scenario, it could very well be wise for Tesla to slow down growth a little and conserve cash. If Elon is in the room shooting down worst case scenarios, it has a direct bearing, on all of out investments. We need Elon to have the best possible handle on the real world.

Nobody questions whether science can be questioned. This is how it advances. But when Einstein questioned Newton’s theory of gravity, he did it through having better data, solving discrepancies, putting tons of thought into it, providing a cohesive theory that explained all the facts... It’s not like he was some biologist who hazarded an opinion that Newton was wrong. The Equivalent of what Elon is doing.

1) Elon was wrong in predicting zero new U.S. cases as of two weeks ago.

2) Elon was wrong linking to the Bakersfield doctor’s reports that had the following glaring errors:
A) The population tested was not representative of the population as a whole. I.e., they were obviously more disposed to test positive because they were showing up at the clinic.
B) Infection testing does not include those recovered. I.e., serology studies with very low false positive rates are required, not infection testing.
C) Deaths lag infections by up to 4 weeks or more, so using the death rate at the time is erroneous.

The whole study and conclusion was so erroneous, Google removed the video.

3) On Joe Rogan, Elon stated that the infection fatality rate was between a factor of 10 to a factor of 100 less than epidemiologists are stating. Let’s take a conservative viewpoint of a factor of 25. Epidemiologists believe a midpoint IFR of 0.75% is reasonable. So Elon’s claiming a fatality rate of 0.03% (which is much less worrisome than flu), which leads to the conclusion that over 600% of the population of NYC has been infected.

So keeping track the score is:
Epidemiologists = 3
Elon = 0

Of course the most troubling aspect, is that Elon seems to be getting his information from conservative sources of disinformation, and falling for conspiracy theories. The EXACT same thinking that leads many to question Climate Change thinking heir opinion is just as valid a Climatologists, Oceanagraphic and Atmospheric Scientists!