Dr. J
Active Member
If they're legit, the main difference is where they're certified.
What's The Difference Between N95 and KN95 Masks? - Smart Air
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
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What's The Difference Between N95 and KN95 Masks? - Smart Air
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
No idea, but going from @Dr. J 's link, it sounds like GB19083 is the medical grade (splashproof) variety. And looks like those are difficult to come by.
Separately, the NPPTL has tested non-NIOSH approved respirators which are allowed to be used per the FDA EUA for respirators, and has a list of "good" ones:
International Assessment Results | NPPTL | NIOSH | CDC
This link also explains that there are no guarantees. Apparently legit KN95s work pretty well, though.
Useful link, as it provides pictures & filtering efficiency of every mask for you to use during your laborious eBay searches.
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'The biggest airlines operating in the U.K. sued the government to overturn a new requirement that people arriving in Britain self-isolate for two weeks amid the Covid-19 pandemic.'
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
As a naive colonial from downunder I find this crazy. Protecting the NHS/mask wearing\not wearing/StayInPlace these are utterly dependent upon not importing new cases in an uncontrolled manner.
The 2 best actions taken by the Australian (and NZ) government's was expedient (but still defendable) lower impact border controls follow ed by later controls that required all arrivals to quarantine for 14 days at an approved controlled venue.
The global peak has not yet occurred and British Airways is suing their government.
Crazy, after all the pain the UK has gone through, is it all for nothing?
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?
As a naive colonial from downunder I find this crazy. Protecting the NHS/mask wearing\not wearing/StayInPlace these are utterly dependent upon not importing new cases in an uncontrolled manner.
The 2 best actions taken by the Australian (and NZ) government's was expedient (but still defendable) lower impact border controls follow ed by later controls that required all arrivals to quarantine for 14 days at an approved controlled venue.
The global peak has not yet occurred and British Airways is suing their government.
Crazy, after all the pain the UK has gone through, is it all for nothing?
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I expected this to be a lot longer. Basically everyone has to avoid crowds, wear a mask, follow the rules. Anyone think Americans will do this?
Why a 2nd shutdown over coronavirus might be worse than the 1st -- and how to prevent it
Why a second Covid-19 shutdown might be worse than the first -- and how to prevent it - CNN
Why a 2nd shutdown over coronavirus might be worse than the 1st -- and how to prevent it
Why a second Covid-19 shutdown might be worse than the first -- and how to prevent it - CNN
Generally, second wave shutdowns are far more crippling than first wave. So no, i dont see america enacting a second wave shut down, but i would've hoped that some behaviours have changed to reduce its potency.
I'm sure there won't be shutdowns in states run by sociopaths. But when the bodies start piling up, many states will because what else is there? But my question was about Americans following the rules? My wife is disgusted by all the people crowding into stores and not wearing masks here. At this point I just want to see my daughter one more time before it hits the fan.
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
hmm, when will the global peak occur? New cases are on the increase and deaths are on a gradual decline. Are we at a global peak now (or near it) or is there a coming peak that will make this look tame?
Last 3 days 1458 covid-19 deaths in usa. One week ago 3 day total 1665. Lowest 3 day total in months.
United States Coronavirus: 2,182,950 Cases and 118,283 Deaths - Worldometer
United States Coronavirus: 2,182,950 Cases and 118,283 Deaths - Worldometer
Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
I think it comes from the fact that she's lived a very priviledged life.
Might be doable with mask wearing. But the perception needs to change and it won't change until enough ppl die.
The current policy seems to rely on the hope that this virus die down in lethality or gets killed by the sun. Until after the election. Then we can force mandatory mask wearing.
Strangely, I am seeing more ppl here wearing masks now than at the peak.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
BTW, I think this is likely the dominant factor, with the populations infected being a secondary factor.
If we say that new cases have been roughly flat for the last four weeks (approximately true)....
Test positivity has been dropping, while the number of tests has been increasing from around 300-350k in mid-May to 400k+ per day now.
This means we are indeed identifying more of the "healthier" cases - ones we did not find before. If you were to plot the actual infections vs. time, it's been nowhere near flat the last four weeks - the flatness results from the flattening effect of the amount of testing we've been doing. If we had scaled testing even more rapidly, we might have even seen tests increase, while simultaneously infections were dropping.
So even if we assume a constant IFR, the above ensures that the deaths, which are lagging, will also continue to drop. Because deaths are proportional to infections, not cases.
This has been discussed here previously.
I think it's actually more that the scaling of testing has increased, but certainly as discussed earlier, there are likely more young people getting infected overall, too, which helps.
A very good summary report from the CDC today. Gives some data on death rates in children, and in other demographics. Just remember when reading this report that the actual number of infections is likely closer to 13 million (at the end of the report data window May 31st - might be closer to 15 million now). This is a guess, but most experts and serology results put it in that ballpark (+/-20%).
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/pdfs/mm6924e2-H.pdf
Someone I follow (Dr. Eric Topol) summarized the mortality in children, which might be of interest to most people. N(%) is the number of cases. Hospitalizations are not tabulated here. Again, this is out of ~13 million total infections, and if we assume we can uniformly apply the % (may not be true as younger infections may be less likely to be detected (more frequently minor))...that would mean 0.037*13e6 = 480k infections in 9-19 years, and 195k infections from 0-9 years.
Out of that, 46 children died, 6 of whom had no underlying conditions. So about 0.007% mortality rate (including underlying conditions). About 0.05% ICU admission rate. And probably about 0.25% hospitalization rate.
We knew this of course - deaths in this age bracket are thankfully very rare, though the approximate hospitalization rate is still troublingly high.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
February 2021 (global peak deaths per day)
Really though I don't think anyone has any idea.
Did a little bit of doom browsing of Worldometer and things look really bad in much of the 3rd world. All the most populous countries are hitting new highs for deaths and cases. And of course you've got our country which appears to be mostly choosing the "live with the virus" strategy (AKA the Swedish strategy).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Definitely. San Antonio (Bexar county) positivity the past 5 weeks: 3.5%, 3.6%, 3.6%, 4.5%, 9.3%. No big change in testing, but hospitalizations hit a record about 10 days ago, then doubled again.
Side note -- chart crime alert in this TX age breakdown. Columns are 10 years from 20-59 then the next 4 are 5 years each. Confirmed cases are lower in 60-69 and 70-79 cohorts, but the dropoff is nothing like this chart implies and somewhat follows the adult population pyramid. It has shifted a bit younger recently as the 60+ crowd takes things a bit more seriously
High death hotspots, NY, NJ, etc., are still declining while new outbreaks aren't big enough to move the needle. San Antonio, 6+ weeks into re-opening with 2m people, still averages ~1 death per day. Even a 10x increase wouldn't move the national needle, and is probably 3-4 weeks away due to lags.
IHME lost all credibility when they lowered their August 4th estimate to 60k for no good reason. Then later they doubled it overnight. It's just a bad model.
Covid Projections uses slightly more educated guesswork. Their forecasts are not very good, but probably the best anyone can do with existing data.
I no longer have a plotting website I’m happy with for US Covid-19. I want to see new case or hospitalizations trends with some level of averaging and percent positive from tests as well at the state level or lower.
Rt.live is the closest I’ve found since they added the “show cases” button for each state.
States of concern right now have growing case rates, but not just due to increased testing (so probably not including CA) and large absolute numbers (so not HI yet). I wish there was a dashboard that could summarize this. There is a long list of states to track that are trending up in daily cases.
Rt.live is the closest I’ve found since they added the “show cases” button for each state.
States of concern right now have growing case rates, but not just due to increased testing (so probably not including CA) and large absolute numbers (so not HI yet). I wish there was a dashboard that could summarize this. There is a long list of states to track that are trending up in daily cases.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
IHME doubled their estimate overnight when they switched to a hybrid model.
Are they supposed to stick to their original model when the evidence is plain that it is wrong?
Neither has much to work with for this stage of the epidemic where social ‘mobility’ as some call it is set to change drastically.
IHME sets Oct 1 as the cutoff for predicting total deaths. But their model predicts Oct 1 to be in the middle of a second exponential ramp. That’s not a very truthful way to interpret their own model. And the model they launched with was junk. Hybrid model is an improvement.
covid19-projections has a baffling feature in their model where there is a small second bump, they simulate the spread of the disease so I don’t know how it’s possible to get that effect where it goes down again without making assumptions about people’s reactions. So there must be a hidden assumption producing it that they haven’t documented. This is the downside to machine learning, often can’t answer the question ‘why’ and that hurts believability. I have historically had the most faith in this model, but as you said not much data to use for this phase of epidemic, and I don’t understand why it looks like it does. So don’t put much faith in it now.
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bhtooefr
Active Member
A reply to something in the roundtable thread:
Conversely there's a lot of people that didn't qualify for things like unemployment or got buried in the system issues, and they already defaulted, but eviction moratoriums were keeping them from being homeless.
Corticosteroids like dexamethasone and methylprednisolone work even better for severe Covid19 when combined with the anticoagulant heparin, the antioxidant ascorbic acid (vitamin C), and the immune-booster thiamine (vitamin B1).
This combination cut deaths by 100% in the first 50 patients treated by Dr. Joseph Varon's unit at United Memorial Medical Center in Houston, and has been saving lives at 9 or more other hospitals around the US since April.
Unfortunately, the BBC has yet to report on this much bigger breakthrough, but word is slowly getting out though a few other outlets, including the LA Times.
This small Texas hospital is finding ways to save COVID-19 patients
Frontline COVID-19 Critical Care Working Group
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