Coronavirus

[StealthP3D]

And it's not like Trumpers will trumpet that they got infected at a rally.

Most Trumpers are too disconnected from reality and facts to figure out how or when they got Coronavirus. All they would know is that they were sick and the root cause was probably the liberals.

 

[Dr. J]

Texas +4.4k cases yesterday. Positive ratio over 10% (34k tests). Not a good trend.

And hospitalizations are up:

There were 2,622 new cases of the coronavirus recorded Tuesday, surpassing the previous record that was set on June 10, according to the Texas Department of Public Health. The state also had 2,518 new hospitalizations, the fifth straight day of record highs. The number of people hospitalized has been increasing steadily since May 25, when 1,511 people were hospitalized.

Texas governor says young people are driving coronavirus surge

 

[jerry33]

And hospitalizations are up:

There were 2,622 new cases of the coronavirus recorded Tuesday, surpassing the previous record that was set on June 10, according to the Texas Department of Public Health. The state also had 2,518 new hospitalizations, the fifth straight day of record highs. The number of people hospitalized has been increasing steadily since May 25, when 1,511 people were hospitalized.

Texas governor says young people are driving coronavirus surge

Because so many have stopped wearing masks and stopped social distancing, this is the expected result.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Texas +4.4k cases yesterday. Positive ratio over 10% (34k tests). Not a good trend.

Just FYI, ~1800 of these infections were old reports from prisons. Leaving 2600 actual new infections (which is also not good).

But yeah not a good trend even after removing those.

Texas has no epi curve so it is hard to assess exactly how bad it is. The reporting can be lumpy.

The apologists say that the high positivity and numbers are occurring because Abbott is having them focus on nursing homes and prisons. We’ll find out whether this is true in about a week I suspect.

Meanwhile Abbott has ordered that no locality can require masks to be used.

We just keep on winning.

Remember when Trump wanted to leave the people on the cruise ship in San Francisco because he didn’t want them included in the numbers (which stood at 500 cases nationwide at the time)? Now we have a single state adding 2600 cases a day and somehow that is supposed to be a good thing.

We need to keep increasing testing until cases start going down in every location.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Texas being Texas. In PA masks are absolutely required nearly everywhere in public, though you're fine driving or walking around socially distanced without one. We screwed up a lot of things in PA and definitely over-responded in many many ways, but we've done a great job with the importance of masks and it's clearly having an impact.

All that being said....TX hasn't even passed 2k deaths to date. And if it's mostly young people passing it around that could actually be a good thing in the long run. Unclear what percentage of these new hospitalizations are the under 30 crowd Abbott is citing. Can't imagine it's a very large percentage, and if not then they're in for a BIG bump in deaths starting next week.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Remember, this is cause for celebration!

These are not the droids you are looking for.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Wow, what an embarrassing time to be a human being. Is it almost over???

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

.TX hasn't even passed 2k deaths to date.

So much winning!

And if it's mostly young people passing it around that could actually be a good thing in the long run.*

*Outcomes are not binary. Lung abnormalities have been detected in ~50% of asymptomatic cases. Your mileage may vary.

 

[jerry33]

Remember, this is cause for celebration!

These are not the droids you are looking for.

View attachment 552670

Although I put funny, there really needs to be a sad icon.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Although I put funny, there really needs to be a sad icon.

Later, Pence will claim he was right because what he actually meant is that everything that happens from here can correctly be viewed as part of the first wave, not a second wave.

 

[cusetownusa]

COVID-19: Data Summary - NYC Health

According to this NYC had 13 new cases on June 15, a welcome collapse from a daily high near ten thousand.

Hoping for some insightful comments on how the second surge due to protests and lack of social distancing over the past 20 days has not appeared.

I am thinking masks and the beginning of some kind of herd immunity in specific susceptible populations that are most likely to spread it.

Thoughts?

the 13 new cases can't be correct. According to the NYS Coronavirus Dashboard they had 350 new cases yesterday with a positively rate of 1.2%.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Say what you like about Elizabeth Warren, I'm a big fan that finds some of her policies absurdly dangerous, but her social media posts.....strongest in the game IMO at telling it like it is.

I assume these are written by her directly, feels like it.

So that’s it, Vice President Pence? You’re just going to close your eyes, plug your ears, and pat yourself on the back for the public health catastrophe under your watch? This is as pathetic as it is reckless.

Coronavirus keeps spreading across the country. Hundreds of Americans are still dying every day. And Dr. Fauci confirmed to me last month that another wave of coronavirus is “inevitable.” Vice President Pence shouldn’t be celebrating – he should be making a plan.

As head of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, Pence should be getting ready for the alarming possibility of another coronavirus wave on top of a bad flu season. I warned the Vice President to prepare last month.

The White House has failed to obtain and distribute medical supplies. Last week I urged the Pandemic Response Accountability Committee to investigate Jared Kushner's Project Air Bridge after we found delays, incompetence, confusion, and ethics concerns.

We need more COVID-19 tests, more PPE, and a vaccine – and a federal government that can distribute them at scale. Which is why Trump and Pence should be using the Defense Production Act now and championing my bill to publicly manufacture COVID-19 supplies.

And if Vice President Pence is bored, he could find out why
the CDC still has huge gaps in its race and ethnicity data so we make sure our federal response is reaching Black and Brown communities hit hardest by this crisis. This shouldn’t wait until the August deadline.

The White House ignored the threat of COVID-19 until it was too late to stop it, left states without the equipment to fight it, and didn’t track its spread to contain it. Now they want to wave a magic wand and declare "Mission Accomplished."

Wake up and get to work, Vice President Pence.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

the 13 new cases can't be correct. According to the NYS Coronavirus Dashboard they had 350 new cases yesterday with a positively rate of 1.2%.

13 is not correct. It’s an epi curve, in this case plotted by diagnosis date. I prefer symptom onset, but whatever. Delays.

13 cases diagnosed on that date have been reported so far.

The idea of an epi curve is to get rid of the artificial reporting delays. Diagnosis date introduces artificiality in terms of diagnoses being less likely to occur on certain days. Symptom onset is nice because it gets you closer to the point of infection. However, requires good data gathering and oftentimes that data is missing (and then it falls back to date of diagnosis).

The best epi curves have color coding for the current status of each case. So you can see how long cases remain active (hospitalized), etc. Animated curves to show momentum would be nice, but I haven't seen that yet.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Heating up in Tulsa. Statewide, testing appears to be relatively steady over the last few weeks, at about 30-40k tests per week. (Though I have been unable to find the source of the numbers on the OKC dashboard, for some reason...must be missing it...)

Positivity is up statewide from a low of 1.4% around Memorial Day, to about 3.5-4% now. Still could be controllable. But trending the wrong way. They need to increase testing (etc.) until the number of cases starts falling.

Remember, there isn't a second wave. And this is "due to testing."

 

[dfwatt]

Heating up in Tulsa. Statewide, testing appears to be relatively steady over the last few weeks, at about 30-40k tests per week. (Though I have been unable to find the source of the numbers on the OKC dashboard, for some reason...must be missing it...)

Positivity is up statewide from a low of 1.4% around Memorial Day, to about 3.5-4% now. Still could be controllable. But trending the wrong way. They need to increase testing (etc.) until the number of cases starts falling.

Remember, there isn't a second wave. And this is "due to testing."

View attachment 552766

Here would be my analysis. Those numbers plus certain percentage of motivated denial and lack of high-level compliance with masks/ social distancing plus upcoming super spreader Trumpism event unless it's rescheduled collectively equals explosion of cases and classic exponential ramp into a boatload of illness.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Here would be my analysis. Those numbers plus certain percentage of motivated denial and lack of high-level compliance with masks/ social distancing plus upcoming super spreader Trumpism event unless it's rescheduled collectively equals explosion of cases and classic exponential ramp into a boatload of illness.

It won't help. But my contention is that with current measures in place, clearly the disease burden is already spiraling out of control. The contribution of people working, socializing, going to church, etc., without a care in the world (due to the motivated denial and lack of high-level compliance as you say) on an everyday basis across the state is likely going to be a much bigger driver than a single event, even if there are 30k people there. It definitely creates some mixing and perhaps allows better community spread into different demographics (more so than might normally occur), but eventually that was going to happen anyway.

Due to the effects on behavior, the example that having this rally sets is likely more damaging and enhances the spread more than the rally itself.

Anyway, might be a good time to put the brakes on the virus in general in Oklahoma, before it's too late! Using common sense would help, in addition to continuing to increase testing more and more until cases start to decrease. It seems like a good jobs program.

 

[dl003]

Me every time clicking on this thread

 

[N5329K]

All I could find was a press release, and that the researchers haven't released the study yet:
Coronavirus breakthrough: dexamethasone is first drug shown to save lives

Slightly deeper dive into the study here:
Common Steroid Could Be Cheap and Effective Treatment for Severe COVID-19
Robin

 

[30seconds]

Anyway, might be a good time to put the brakes on the virus in general in Oklahoma, before it's too late! Using common sense would help, in addition to continuing to increase testing more and more until cases start to decrease. It seems like a good jobs program.

50/50 probability that Oklahoma goes the way of Texas and bans masks

 

[TEG]

'Science by press release': Doctors view COVID-19 drug results with excitement, skepticism

...
Doctors in the United States are cautiously optimistic about clinical trial results from the University of Oxford in England that suggest that a commonly used drug may have a real, measurable impact on the COVID-19 pandemic.
But they need to see the data first.
The drug, a steroid called dexamethasone, reduced deaths among the sickest COVID-19 patients by a third, the researchers said Tuesday. It's the first time, they say, any therapy has been shown to affect mortality for the coronavirus...

Common steroid found to reduce deaths in sickest COVID-19 patients, researchers say