Coronavirus

[madodel]

I agree; it is not going to work.

You can bet that whatever system they have is less effective than planes with N95 filtration and ~ 50% air exchange at a high volume -- and those planes still need passengers to wear masks to avoid infection and those passengers are not yelling into each others faces.

Another batch of infected morons

Can't you pop over there with your spray? Might be worth the drive.

 

[madodel]

Can't you pop over there with your spray? Might be worth the drive.

Watching MSNBC watching the crowd waiting. No masks in sight.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

A couple of Debbie Downer

They and the Negative Nancies are the WORST.


In other news, I think a couple of days ago I started picking up the beginnings of troubling signals in Nevada and Louisiana (the troubling thing about Louisiana is they already had a bad outbreak so this would be sort of an outlier). Common threads presumably are oppressive heat.

We'll see how it goes. Louisiana could just have a temporary blip and it may amount to nothing. Nevada looks a little bit more sustained.

Anyway, add to the watch list.

Really significant increases in deaths in Florida and Arizona today. 64 deaths in Florida, and 42 in AZ. Those are bad numbers. I guess we might end up learning again that deaths lag infections and hospitalizations? Who could have predicted that?

I hope these blips don't amount to too much, but it's starting to look pretty troubling.

In AZ they're up to (for a small sample of 627 tests) 22% positive for tests collected last week. And the prior week average has ticked up to 19% from 18% implying that the last 20k of tests collected in the prior week were closer to 20% positive (for that June 8-14th week, there were 46k tests at 18% positive and now there are 66k at 19%).

They've increased testing volume by about 60% over the last couple weeks, and positivity is still increasing.

Although over 50% of cases in the last week were under age 45, there have still been 2000 infections of people over age 65. I expect this to go up as it becomes harder for the elderly to avoid infection getting through gaps in their defenses.

Excellent trends.

 

[madodel]

Trump team weighs a CDC scrubbing to deflect mounting criticism
Has to be someone to blame for all these continuing cases.

White House officials are putting a target on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, positioning the agency as a coronavirus scapegoat as cases surge in many states and the U.S. falls behind other nations that are taming the pandemic.

 

[deonb]

Trump just doubled down and said he wasn't kidding when he said to slow down testing:
Trump says he wasn't joking about testing slowdown: "I don't kid"

And also tweeted:

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Trump just doubled down and said he wasn't kidding when he said to slow down testing:
Trump says he wasn't joking about testing slowdown: "I don't kid"

And also tweeted:
View attachment 555299

Apparently he's trying to just dominate the news cycle and play to his base, since all of the people at NIH/NIAID/FDA/CDC said he had not requested a slow down. Or he's going around them to sabotage it, I suppose.

 

[CyberGus]

Trump just doubled down and said he wasn't kidding

 

[TEG]

Maybe there is a tinge of truth to that madness? How many people get infected going to a testing site to wait among other people who are already infected?
More testing could cause some (very small?) increase in actual cases.
We need a "self test at home" kit...

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Maybe there is a tinge of truth to that madness? How many people get infected going to a testing site to wait among other people who are already infected?
More testing could cause some (very small?) increase in actual cases.
We need a "self test at home" kit...

There is definitely risk. That's why the drive through centers are advised. But even that has some risks as you are relying on proper infection control methods being used.

An at-home kit (antigen?) would be really nice to have even if it were not perfect. Hopefully they're working on it, but we seem to have given up.

 

[davepsilon]

Maybe there is a tinge of truth to that madness? How many people get infected going to a testing site to wait among other people who are already infected?
More testing could cause some (very small?) increase in actual cases.
We need a "self test at home" kit...

The easier testing is the access the better off US would be. Contact tracers that drive to you if you’ve been exposed could work. Self test though is not a good idea at least with the currently required swabbing for the PCR tests. It takes a trained sampler unfortunately and is moderately uncomfortable. Self test is unlikely to get a good sample for that. Maybe another less accurate screener test would be possible that then requires follow up...

 

[SMAlset]

Trump just doubled down and said he wasn't kidding when he said to slow down testing:
Trump says he wasn't joking about testing slowdown: "I don't kid"

And also tweeted:
View attachment 555299

I’m sure Fauci and Brix and Surgeon General have tried to explain that by not extensively testing and “capturing” the silent asymptomatic individuals out there with testing that more people will be infected because the source wasn’t identified and quarantined and eventually those people that got infected by these asymptomatic people could and in some cases (unknown number) end up as figures anyway in positives, hospitalization, ICU and sadly death totals.

All this costs families on every level, employers (lost workers and production), cities (resulting in SIP orders and loss revenue from places closed), and States whose economy gets disrupted on many levels. Where all this ends up with care facilities, hospitals and importantly exhausted health care workers I have no idea but the system is bound to break if it can’t be controlled. A great amount of this likely because people refuse to wear masks or do so properly and because of intentional slowing of testing. If we are so concerned about the economy recovering, why is it so hard to wear a mask (properly) and make it a requirement in almost all situations (of course there will be exceptions). Instead of being shunned or played down during a pandemic this should be something promoted to save our countrymen and our economy. IMO this should be the message coming from the top on down. Really, get America back on track financially and make it healthy again. It’s up to everyone.

Article today from Fast Company. Countries where everyone wore masks saw COVID death rates 100 times lower than projected

 

[ZeApelido]

My first little foray into access the covidtracking.com data.

New cases / percent positive rates for all states and w/o NY/NJ:

 

[Daniel in SD]

Looks like Texas is getting dangerously close to fascism. I wonder if this will affect Tesla's factory plans?

“We want to make sure everyone reinforces the best safe practices of wearing a mask, hand sanitation, maintaining safe distance, but importantly, because the spread is so rampant right now, there’s never a reason for you to have to leave your home unless you need to go out,” Abbott said on KBTX. “The safest place for you is at your home.”

Gov. Abbott warns of record-breaking 5,000 new COVID-19 infections for Texas

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Looks like Texas is getting dangerously close to fascism. I wonder if this will affect Tesla's factory plans?

Gov. Abbott warns of record-breaking 5,000 new COVID-19 infections for Texas

This is just ridiculous. FREE AMERICA NOW! How is Texas supposed to take the crown from California on daily cases?

 

[Doggydogworld]

Do you have an example? I'm talking about stamping out the virus, not just bumbling along in mediocrity. I want an example of a country that has really stopped it cold with fewer than 1000 tests per daily death (10k tests per daily death brings it to a swift end, typically). Looks to me like France and Spain are hitting that.

France only tested 2% of their people, 45 tests per death. The US has tested almost 9% and 240/death. Switzerland is now below 2 deaths per day after testing less than 6% of their people (260/death).

Now that death rates are down 97% in those countries their testing looks high relative to the (massively reduced) disease burden. But they achieved that massive reduction without your high testing rates.

But more testing (etc.) is certainly helpful.

Sure. I've been screaming for tests since February. But we've got much bigger problems in the US, and testing or even TTQ won't solve them.

I was comparing week over week numbers - the week prior was 78.

Swedish reporting is too erratic for single day comparisons, even something like Wednesday vs. prior Wednesday. One Wednesday will seem to have a bunch of Tuesday or Thursday data in it, the next one won't. Even their 7 day rolling averages bounce around. The sub-200 milestone I called out was a clear bounce -- down over 30% from the 7 days prior. They're trending down, but not that fast.

The most recent 7 day total of 222 is a better representation of ground truth. That's down 70% from the peak. Nothing like France, Italy or others, but a decline that roughly matches the US. Unlike us, though, they show no sign of a 2nd wave. And they did it without lockdowns, without closing primary schools and with less than half the testing. Actually relative to disease burden they tested less than 1/4th as much as us.

What would reverse it is an increase in disease burden, as people tire of social distancing and get careless.

We'll see. Social compliance includes sticking with the program. Sweden seems to be doing it. We actively refuse to.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You can't look at historical data, since the timing of the tests matters, and there are other mitigation methods. That's why I specified a daily rate of at least 1000 (500k), and preferably 10k (5 million). I would imagine that for higher disease prevalence the lower 1000 metric is less likely to work, due to chaos and network effects.

Other than the timing issue, this metric also suffers from lag on the deaths, but I haven't found a better predictor.

I'm also talking about eradication when I quote these numbers - not mitigation. (New Zealand & Iceland status.)

Now that death rates are down 97% in those countries their testing looks high relative to the (massively reduced) disease burden. But they achieved that massive reduction without your high testing rates.

They reduced the disease burden with lockdown. Another way to reduce it is with massive testing. Since we're not going to lockdown again, we have chosen to do massive testing in the US if we want to eliminate it.

It looks to me like France is doing about 20k tests per day (EDIT: 30-40k typically). Their 7 day average is about 33 deaths. So that's a ratio of 606 (EDIT: 1060).

Géodes - Santé publique France

I think they are currently unlikely to be able to eradicate the disease and fully reopen, at that testing level.

For Switzerland, they are currently performing about 5000 tests per day. And it looks like they may be increasing testing levels.

COVID-19 - Situation Suisse : Tests r&eacutealis&eacutes

At about 1500-2500 tests per death, I think they have a better chance than France of being able to return to near normal in the near future.

In both of these countries I suspect we'll see testing increase somewhat from current levels.

Obviously there is a big element of using tests efficiently - as I said, it's not all about the tests, of course. It's a broad term meant to apply to the whole apparatus.

 

[SageBrush]

Can't you pop over there with your spray? Might be worth the drive.

@dfwatt is the spray vendor.

I am the originator of the 'Natural Vaccination Party' brand. I'm now about ready to release for licensing to a certain political party the most relevant slogan of the day "where trump goes, death follows."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Speaking of natural vaccination parties... This seems just about ideal. About 50% mask compliance. Young adults are supposed to be fairly optimal for transmission according to some papers, but there are few olds (e.g. Barry Goldwater Jr.) sprinkled in for good measure.


https://twitter.com/jboehm_NEWS/status/1275557968268783616?s=20

 

[AZRI11]

You can't look at historical data, since the timing of the tests matters, and there are other mitigation methods. That's why I specified a daily rate of at least 1000 (500k), and preferably 10k (5 million). I would imagine that for higher disease prevalence the lower 1000 metric is less likely to work, due to chaos and network effects.

Other than the timing issue, this metric also suffers from lag on the deaths, but I haven't found a better predictor.

I'm also talking about eradication when I quote these numbers - not mitigation. (New Zealand & Iceland status.)



They reduced the disease burden with lockdown. Another way to reduce it is with massive testing. Since we're not going to lockdown again, we have chosen to do massive testing in the US if we want to eliminate it.

It looks to me like France is doing about 20k tests per day (EDIT: 30-40k typically). Their 7 day average is about 33 deaths. So that's a ratio of 606 (EDIT: 1060).

Géodes - Santé publique France

I think they are currently unlikely to be able to eradicate the disease and fully reopen, at that testing level.

For Switzerland, they are currently performing about 5000 tests per day. And it looks like they may be increasing testing levels.

COVID-19 - Situation Suisse : Tests r&eacutealis&eacutes

At about 1500-2500 tests per death, I think they have a better chance than France of being able to return to near normal in the near future.

In both of these countries I suspect we'll see testing increase somewhat from current levels.

Obviously there is a big element of using tests efficiently - as I said, it's not all about the tests, of course. It's a broad term meant to apply to the whole apparatus.

Trying to eradicate a coronavirus? Good luck! This virus will just be like the others (cold viruses) that circulate throughout the globe year after year. Now, if you got a vaccine that's another story.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Trying to eradicate a coronavirus? Good luck!

It's totally possible, to a low enough level to operate normally. Not sure why people have a hard time understanding this. We eradicate Ebola, so that people can go back to living normally - but there is no vaccine (though Ebola is less contagious).

It makes no sense to do so for regular cold viruses because the economic impact is minimal. Not the case for SARS-CoV-2.

And it is completely possible to eradicate it - see Iceland, New Zealand. They'll have it come back (it's already back), but then they'll crush it again. There is no reason we can't do the same. You just keep on crushing it.

Check out countries across Europe over the next fw months. I assure you the objective of some of them is to eliminate the virus. Otherwise they will deal with a vicious second wave in the fall.

It's not like people have anything else to do.