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You would think that basic human rights and the preservation of the planet and the environment would be above tribal division but it doesn't look that way.
It's practically in the definition of a "tribe" that it looks upon its members as people and non-members as "others." Therefore, one would not expect a tribe to support basic human rights, which requires looking upon all humanity as equal and related. One would, however, expect even tribalists to realize the environment is important even to themselves.
 
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Your brother's children are more likely to die from drowning or choking than covid. Possibly even be choked by a parent driven mad by kids trapped at home for a year.

You have completely missed the point. There is some concern about one of the children, who always seems to get pretty sick with common colds, but separate from that, I'm concerned about the PARENTS (and they are concerned as well).

I don't think the risk to parents in their mid-40s (one of whom has a BMI well over 40 I think) is negligible enough to warrant the risk. The impact of losing a parent (especially if one of the children is responsible for it!) is likely to be somewhat substantial relative to the impact of missing 3-4 months more of school (doing remote learning instead). Given the current awful situation, I think it's good that the school is providing all of the options to parents. There are three - 1) relatively normal school 2) hybrid, reduced days schooling with remote learning 3) entirely remote learning. Some parents are not fortunate enough to be able to work at jobs that provide them with protection, so they're much more likely to experience mortality due to C19, but at least they can have their kids back to a normal school schedule. Hooray.

Regarding the risk to children, this idea that somehow we can tolerate infections by C19 in children makes me think we are living in a world of magical thinking. This simply won't fly, for so many reasons.

It's just a giant clusterf**k waiting to happen. I'm old enough to remember the days where we were worried about the second wave hitting hard when the kids went back to school. Lol.

Happy to continue this conversation in PM, but this is no longer related to coronavirus.

Thank you.
 
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Yeah, but that's not unlimited/unconditional abortion:

"....his support for a state measure that would significantly loosen restrictions on late-term abortions." See? Not unlimited and not unconditional.

"The Democratic bill sought to allow for late-term abortions if the mother's physical or mental safety were at risk .

The procedure would also have required sign-off by only one doctor, rather than the three required under existing law."

So, the conditions/limits that would still apply are: a doctor certifies that the mother's physical or mental safety is at risk.
 
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Pediatricians are sending their kids to school. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends sending children to school this fall.

Again, I'm sure the American Academy of Pediatrics is mostly correct that school is a safer place for children (it probably is a safer/healthier place for some children than the home, unfortunately). But that misses the point, too, of course.

It's a risk/benefit thing. I think for young parents in their 20s in excellent condition, with young children in good health, who need to work jobs that require their kids to be at school, school should be an option. I don't think it's all that safe, really, but it is what it is. At least there won't be many kids there and that will help limit spread when taking into account the apparent relative lack of spread amongst young children (maybe).

The schools will need to make sure to only allow young teachers (under 35) to do in-person instruction and be onsite. So ALL young and healthy teachers, administrators, janitorial staff, maintenance staff, cafeteria staff. Some will still die of course, but such is life, I guess, if we're supposed to be living and dying with the virus.

But it's not one size fits all.
 
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Tipping point in Florida:
"As cases surge in Florida, more than 40 hospitals in counties across the state reported having no more beds available in their adult intensive care units, according to the state’s health care administration website."
Robin

I'm honestly a bit surprised by this reporting, and I'm looking forward to the state making actual C19 hospitalization statistics available at some point (similar to what AZ does). It just seems to me that FL is a couple weeks behind AZ, so they should not yet have filled up their hospitals (AZ has capacity still because they've been progressively eliminating ICU usage for other causes (I guess this is possible by reducing some more serious elective surgeries, or maybe they just ship other ICU patients out of state)).

I'd be slightly surprised if the situation is currently as bad as that Florida state website suggests. Not saying it won't get there, since they seem to be going for the rapid herd approach. Just seems a bit early.
 
Yeah, but that's not unlimited/unconditional abortion:

"....his support for a state measure that would significantly loosen restrictions on late-term abortions." See? Not unlimited and not unconditional.

"The Democratic bill sought to allow for late-term abortions if the mother's physical or mental safety were at risk .

The procedure would also have required sign-off by only one doctor, rather than the three required under existing law."

So, the conditions/limits that would still apply are: a doctor certifies that the mother's physical or mental safety is at risk.

Thanks for reminding me why I don't like having this conversation with people on the left - being judged for my beliefs. Do you know how easy it is to find a SINGLE doctor to sign off on anything? It's why a single physician in CA was responsible for thousands of "medical" exceptions for the anti-vaxer movement. As a doctor, you should know the 3-doc rule is in place in most circumstances to prevent exactly that kind of abuse.

Furthermore, the "unlimited" was a euphemism. But I guess you expected me to spell it out, so I will.

Nothing beyond first trimester, and then only under the circumstances I mentioned before.

Happy to continue this conversation in PM, but it's way afield of the topic of this thread, and I'm done here in public with it since I get the distinct impression that certain people want to find a way to justify how morally superior their beliefs are to my own (you do realize this is why Trump's base is so rock-solid? No one in the middle or on the right can have a conversation with the left without the judgement card being played - directly or implied).
 
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As a doctor, you should know the 3-doc rule is in place in most circumstances to prevent exactly that kind of abuse.
I'm not that kind of a doctor.

It turns out your views on abortion are nuanced (like most people's) rather than absolutist as you implied with "unlimited/unconditional." Abortion is a difficult issue, and it's best discussed without demonizing people who disagree.

Edit: Please note that I never implied anything judgmental or derogatory about your beliefs. I merely pointed out the fallacy in your argument.
 
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Tipping point in Florida:
"As cases surge in Florida, more than 40 hospitals in counties across the state reported having no more beds available in their adult intensive care units, according to the state’s health care administration website."
Robin

We would need to know the average ICU utilization to know how big of a surge they are experiencing. Sometimes that percent is surprisingly high.

I'm sure the health system is understandably wanting to scare people into safer behavior.
 
We would need to know the average ICU utilization to know how big of a surge they are experiencing. Sometimes that percent is surprisingly high.

I'm sure the health system is understandably wanting to scare people into safer behavior.

Without knowing the number of non-C19 patients it is hard to say, but I took screenshots a couple times ("I've got receipts!"), and certainly things are trending poorly. Increases in ICU usage & Hospital Bed Usage are not all the information you need, because dramatic increases in C19 hospitalizations can be offset by reductions in other hospitalizations (see AZ - when/if they hit that wall where they can no longer reduce the non-C19 population, in a couple weeks, it's going to get messy rapidly - they've got ~2300 more C19 patients than they did on June 1st, but they've only increased their hospital census by ~800!!! And have 1500 non-surge beds remaining...). (ADHS - Data Dashboard) NOTHING TO WORRY ABOUT.

Anyway, here's the data from FL. Hospital beds are down from 15k -> 12K and ICU beds are down from ~1450 to ~950 statewide from 10 days ago.

Bay & Clay Counties, for example, are now no vacancy on their ICU vs. 10 days ago. (Even though Bay has added 11 ICU beds in the meantime.) Have to go to another county. It's all good. Nothing to worry about!
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Possibly even be choked by a parent driven mad by kids trapped at home for a year.
One wonders how any children ever survived to continue the human race. Kids staying "at home for a year" and more was the norm for most of our existence. Not sure why you try to project mental instability and murderous intent onto so many parents.
 
Not surprising as most private schools tend to be religious and anti-science.

It depends quite a bit on the religion. I grew up in Southern California where most of the religious schools were Catholic. I went to one 1-5th grade that was poor, switched to a public school that was ranked tied for 1st in the Los Angeles area for 6-8, then back to a Catholic high school with a strong reputation for technology and science education. Probably 80% of my high school class went on to get a STEM education.

I knew a lot of other people who went to Catholic high schools and got STEM educations too.

There are some religions that are anti-science, but not all are. The Catholic church owns an Astronomical observatory in Arizona and there are Jesuit universities renown for the high quality of their scientific education.

Just FYI.

Perhaps the problem is thinking about immunity and infection as binary events. The immunologist below thinks the first phase of response to the virus is under appreciated. If someone test positive by PCR, has no symptoms, and is not contagious do they have covid?

Coronavirus: Why everyone was wrong

Interesting, but it doesn't square with observable fact. COVID is right now a raging forest fire in some of the warmest parts of the United States. This is definitely not following the pattern of a seasonal cold.

Right. My point was we both are taking N=1, or close to it, and drawing conclusions based upon our albeit limited experiences.

If I were to do that about public schools, I would conclude that all of them top out at about a 5th-grade equivalent education, they teach nearly no science, and are basically vocational schools. But I do understand that where I grew up the public schools were some of the worst in the country. I don't really believe they are all that way, but it sure did taint my impression early on. My children, on the other hand, are in great public schools, so that has helped balance out my impressions.

That's definitely not true most places I've lived. The public K-8 school a few blocks from where I grew up was rated tied for the best pre-high school education in Los Angeles county when I was going there. It was tied with the other public school on the other side of the hill from us. Our public school beat out private academies, much to their embarrassment. I went to a private high school, but the public high school we fed into had to have a special program for the kids from these two elementary schools. In 8th grade many of my classmates were talking about what they were going to do for grad-school.

Nope, if you REALLY want to know, I'm a Christian. As such, I will never vote for anyone that supports unlimited/unconditional abortion. It's my breaking point issue. As mentioned previously, I believe that the rights of the unborn child are woefully under-represented in our country.

I break ranks with Republicans on a lot of issues, which is why I have never registered with that party and consider myself more a conservative-leaning independent. Environment, science (anti-vaxxers), many issues I don't agree with the Republicans.

I'm sure, especially in this group, that won't go over well, but you basically asked, and that's the "why".

Only a few states don't have limits on abortion.
An Overview of Abortion Laws

A large number have a cut-off at viability, 20 weeks, or 24. Those with viability cutoffs usually define it at the point where a premature fetus has at least a 50% chance of survival. With the current state of medical science I think that's around 22 weeks.

There are quite a few Democratic politicians (including Joe Biden) who are of the opinion that they are personally opposed to abortion, but hold the opinion that it should be a personal choice. Some people who believe it should be allowed recognize that legally banning something that does have buy in from a significant percentage of the population is not going to work. That's why the war on drugs has been such a failure, not enough people believe they should be illegal.

With the abortion issue there is too much debate about when human life begins. Until somewhere close to 90% of the population can agree on a fairly narrow range, banning it will just create a black market with lots of health problems as a result. It's far better to keep as much as possible above ground and regulated instead of in a black market and unregulated.

Actually, yes, I do believe that the fetus is a child/person. The unique biological make-up of a fetus is unlike anything else that the human body goes through.

Honestly, you are correct that I would assume that abortion in the context of rape/incest is murder. I do view it as such. I also recognize the extremely unique circumstance that puts the woman in at that time and that she should and does have a degree of rights. It is an incredibly unique position, and despite my brashness here at times I am not all-knowing and I certainly am not not God, and for that reason I won't be able to give you a well-packaged, perfect answer for this situation. But it is where I personally draw the line, and one which even Christians would disagree with me on because most of them draw a hard line at conception (which is their right and I do understand the reasoning).

On the flip side, I do not believe that a woman should have absolute control to request an abortion right up until birth, because a fetus is very viable, and VERY interactive many months before birth takes place. If we draw the line a "viability" then that is a line which will constantly be moving throughout time as our technology improves. What happens when we invent an artificial womb and can transplant a fetus from a mother to that and care for it till full term? I don't know that answer, but I bet the science will eventually get there.

If you look at the chart in the link above, you will see that most states cut off abortion at some point, even most blue states. The number of people in favor of abortion on demand all the way until birth is very limited. There is a fairly strong consensus even among quite a few abortion advocates to cut off abortions somewhere around the time of viability of premature babies outside the womb. There are always some outliers who want to go to extremes, but most pro-choice advocates have attitudes well back from the extremes.

As for artificial wombs, science fiction author Lois McMaster Bujold set out to write some stories about the cultural impacts on a society in the future with this technology. The series became it's own entertaining yarn (she is an excellent writer who writes very entertaining stories), but uterine replicators play a part in a lot of stories.

I think it's pretty much flat, but about to head up. Looking at the deaths in aggregate like this can be a bit deceiving. Clearly there are upwards trends in some places, and downwards decay in mortality in others. But when dealing with exponentials, the upwards trend soon dominates. Pretty soon the overall will start rising.


In other news, looks like we have a PLAN for reopening schools. Hooray!!! The kids can go back to school!

https://twitter.com/JenniferJJacobs/status/1280548761417191431?s=20

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I was talking to my brother last night. He and his ex-wife have been safely sheltering at their respective homes safely for the last 4 months, kids shuttling back and forth between the houses. They are both fortunate enough to be able to work remotely. There's no way it would make any sense to send their kids back to school in Washington State! What would the point of the last four months have been? Fortunately it seems that the schools are making a diversity of options available to parents. Obviously, the kids will be staying out of school until this is over. This is not complicated.

They should take a look at the Washington Virtual Academies
Welcome to WAVA!
 
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Pediatricians are sending their kids to school. The American Academy of Pediatrics recommends sending children to school this fall.

Follow up:

1) It's definitely important to have a goal of getting kids back to school, safely.

2) We have to make every effort to bring cases to zero in the United States prior to the beginning of the school year. This will make it easier to open schools again.

3) The federal government needs to provide the billions of dollars to schools across the nation that will be required to reopen safely. It isn't going to just happen, and these districts will not be able to afford what is needed. The feds have an unlimited amount of free money, so if this is important (and it is!), we should try to spend it usefully. Super high return on investment.

4) There needs to be a realistic discussion about the concerns that teachers and parents have, and how to provide options to address those concerns. This is not just about the risk to children.

5) We need to have science in progress that provides us more information about the actual risks to children, and the risk they present for spreading the virus. It appears that they can definitely spread the virus, though it is less common.
 
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We would need to know the average ICU utilization to know how big of a surge they are experiencing. Sometimes that percent is surprisingly high.

I'm sure the health system is understandably wanting to scare people into safer behavior.

I tend to believe the health care and hospital system is equally concerned about surviving as a vital service to the community and with asymptomatics flagrantly ignoring pandemic protocols it's looking like a darker prospect each day hospitalizations and ICU get additional covid-19 patients. Masks are not the public enemy here.
 
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