Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Interesting data from the CDC. We had 10 consecutive weeks of excessive deaths in the USA. Deaths reported are delayed by a few weeks. This is data that should be reported by MSM but of course is not. Provisional Death Counts for Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Why do you think this is relevant? There has been some nonsense on Twitter today in the form of a spreadsheet from Kyle Lamb processing the CDC’s data. I won’t post it here. But the guy has no idea what he is talking about - the CDC’s own website says exactly what he observes will happen, and it has nothing to do with recently reported deaths being pulled from earlier. People are grasping at straws with data they do not understand.

Here are the data from Florida (dark purple, light purple, and orange are the last three days, in order) :

Here are the data from Arizona:
Recent days:

(Animation, not including the last couple days)
https://twitter.com/koko_vivian/status/1280546450741444609?s=21

These deaths have occurred within the last 2-3 weeks, nearly without exception, end of story. Deaths are going up, and they will go up a lot more - there is no stopping that now. It is a crystal clear picture. The only question is how high they will go. We are now approaching levels of infection similar to what we had in late March, though they are more widely distributed than they were in late March, and a smaller proportion of the infected are elderly.

 

[SageBrush]

No basis for safely concluding anything like that. We have no statistics, and this is a country not famous for its openness or transparency about anything. It's probably just covid-19 that has been running amok.

Kazakhstan has been identified as world hot-spot for a while now. I think I first became aware of it when a high proportion of imported cases to S Korea came from there.

 

[AZRI11]

Why do you think this is relevant? There has been some nonsense on Twitter today in the form of a spreadsheet from Kyle Lamb processing the CDC’s data. I won’t post it here. But the guy has no idea what he is talking about - the CDC’s own website says exactly what he observes will happen, and it has nothing to do with recently reported deaths being pulled from earlier. People are grasping at straws with data they do not understand.

Here is the data from Florida:

View attachment 563672

Here is the data from Arizona:
Recent days:
View attachment 563671
(Animation, not including the last couple days)
https://twitter.com/koko_vivian/status/1280546450741444609?s=21

Picture of recent data:
These deaths have occurred within the last 2-3 weeks, nearly without exception, end of story. Deaths are going up. It is a crystal clear picture. The only question is how high they will go. We are now approaching levels of infection similar to what we had in late March, though they are more widely distributed than they were in late March.

People are stunned when I tell them that 2.1 million people die in U.S. every year. CDC weekly death rate shows that we are back to normal deaths per week at beginning of june. What happens from this point forward is dependent on medical treatments and eventually a vaccine. Cases in R.I. (my state) have dropped 80% and it kept dropping as we continued to move into stage 3. Social distancing is not being adhered to anymore where I live. Beaches and bars are crowded Governor is threatening to close beaches . We had our spike now like nyc it's gone. Why? Ask Sweden which had half the death rate as my state and cases there have dropped significantly. R.I. is at less than 20% on positive covid antibodies tests. Strange. Sweden 547 deaths per million. R.I. 921 per million. Only 5 people in ICU with covid-19 in my state as of Friday. Believe me, we wore masks but many people didn't follow social distancing. Yet the virus is almost gone*

* for now

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

CDC weekly death rate shows that we are back to normal deaths per week at beginning of june.

Again, their data lags. It is possible that it dropped to within baseline mortality bounds (we don’t know yet exactly what the deaths were in June), but it certainly is not going to stay that way.

Hopefully RI keeps it contained. It sounds like you have a competent governor which helps. The virus requires constant vigilance otherwise it will come roaring back (though your partial herd immunity there probably does help a bit).

Over and over again it is demonstrated that outbreaks are relatively localized. With controls and surveillance, you should be able to keep community transmission from really getting going again, but a fairly large outbreak getting imported from disease circulating elsewhere in the US is a distinct possibility.

 

[SageBrush]

People are stunned when I tell them that 2.1 million people die in U.S. every year.

They need some quality time in elementary school

If people lived to age 100 and a population of 330 million was in steady state,
annual mortality would be 3.3 million

 

[SageBrush]

CDC weekly death rate shows that we are back to normal deaths per week at beginning of june.

It helps to understand what underlies that stat.

People are dying from Covid-19 instead of other causes. When it is a person at end of life and death is from Covid-19 instead of dementia complications the effect on society is quite different than a case of a person who dies from Covid-19 instead of an MVA. Why ? Because some of the reduction in all-cause mortality unrelated to Covid-19 mortality is related to the Covid-19 response. As people return to 'normal' behavior the usual causes of death will climb; and in the absence of Covid-19 mitigation the totals will rise in tandem.

One way to view this is to ask yourself what mortality stats would be with current mitigations but no Covid-19.

 

[wdolson]

Arizona is just one step away from rationing based on disease prognosis to rationing based on money or race or any of the usual discriminations.

Death panels?

"The “Black Lives Matter” movement is partnered with the nonprofit group, Thousand Currents. This is important because the Vice Chair of the Thousand Currents nonprofit, is Susan Rosenberg. Susan Rosenberg is a convicted terrorist. In 1985, Rosenberg was convicted for possessing hundreds of pounds of explosives. She and her organizations involved in multiple robberies, police officer assassinations, and bombings. Rosenberg was sentenced to 58 years in prison. She spent 16-years in federal prison before being pardoned by Bill Clinton on his last day in office. Now, Rosenberg is leading the fundraising efforts for Black Lives Matter. ..." Posted: July 9, 2020, KUSI Newsroom (KUSI-TV is an independent television station licensed to San Diego, California)

Just a bit of fact correction. She was given 58 years in 1985, but most people convicted of the crime she was convicted for (explosives possession) only get 5 years. Clinton did not pardon her, he commuted her sentence because he and quite a few legal experts felt she had been given an overly harsh sentence. Notably there is zero evidence that she has participated in any criminal activity since her release from prison.

People are stunned when I tell them that 2.1 million people die in U.S. every year. CDC weekly death rate shows that we are back to normal deaths per week at beginning of june. What happens from this point forward is dependent on medical treatments and eventually a vaccine. Cases in R.I. (my state) have dropped 80% and it kept dropping as we continued to move into stage 3. Social distancing is not being adhered to anymore where I live. Beaches and bars are crowded Governor is threatening to close beaches . We had our spike now like nyc it's gone. Why? Ask Sweden which had half the death rate as my state and cases there have dropped significantly. R.I. is at less than 20% on positive covid antibodies tests. Strange. Sweden 547 deaths per million. R.I. 921 per million. Only 5 people in ICU with covid-19 in my state as of Friday. Believe me, we wore masks but many people didn't follow social distancing. Yet the virus is almost gone*

* for now

One thing obscuring COVID deaths in the CDC statistics is that this year has seen a sharp drop in accidental deaths. The CDC death numbers can also lag behind the current date up to a month. When I looked at the unexpected deaths a month ago it looked like deaths started falling significantly in early May, but now May shows more than expected deaths.

So far COVID is not the biggest killer in this country, though it might become that for a while in some states, but it is a disease with a potential to overwhelm hospitals and we still don't know what the long term complications are going to be. It's obvious some people are going to have lifelong problems from this.

 

[linux-works]

"The “Black Lives Matter” movement is partnered with the nonprofit group, Thousand Currents. This is important because the Vice Chair of the Thousand Currents nonprofit, is Susan Rosenberg. Susan Rosenberg is a convicted terrorist. In 1985, Rosenberg was convicted for possessing hundreds of pounds of explosives. She and her organizations involved in multiple robberies, police officer assassinations, and bombings. Rosenberg was sentenced to 58 years in prison. She spent 16-years in federal prison before being pardoned by Bill Clinton on his last day in office. Now, Rosenberg is leading the fundraising efforts for Black Lives Matter. ..." Posted: July 9, 2020, KUSI Newsroom (KUSI-TV is an independent television station licensed to San Diego, California)

you just hate black people.

all that wall of text can be summarized thusly.

just fark off.

 

[linux-works]

A couple of weeks ago they polled Canadians to find out what kind of support the goverment would have to re-open the border on July 21st. 81 percent

that made me smile. but only for a little while...

hoping we can get to the point where we can look back at this and laugh. sometime in the not to distant future.

we also need to never forget. there are so many history lessons, here. basically a "here's what NOT TO DO" next time this crap comes along. (sigh)

 

[deonb]

JFK's Democratic party bears no resemblance to the assortment of traitors they have today.
<snip>

-and-

"The “Black Lives Matter” movement is partnered with the nonprofit group, Thousand Currents. This is important because the Vice Chair of the Thousand Currents nonprofit, is Susan Rosenberg
<snip>

Woah! Your troll-bot software needs a serious update. This thread, and the picture I've posted doesn't actually have anything to do with either the Democratic Party, JFK or BLM. It was to show Fox faking media content by photoshopping the same armed guard in front of 3 stock photo backgrounds.

As a developer who works on Machine Learning - it's hard man, I feel your pain! Peace out!

 

[linux-works]

I had to do a net search to find out who susan rosenberg is.

all the refs I found were troll sites (far right 'research' sites.. uh yeah, right)

you can see that they tell one side but not the other. the fact that a sentence like that normally gets 5 years and she got many times that - that fact is conveniently left out of the troll sites. and that she did her time (MORE than she should) and she's now out and living a life. isn't that the point of prison? or, do you want to condem people for the rest of their lives?

I can't condone what she did - I don't know enough about it - but if you did your time and did MORE than you should - shouldn't you get a chance to restart your life and not always be crucified for your past?

seems its the christian way, right? the deep south seems to really lack the christian spirit. they talk a good game, but its all hot air with so many of the racists, there.

 

[SageBrush]

Disney world has opened in Florida.
If ever there was a test of whether some behavior changes and outdoor activity is safe, this is IT.

At a minimum, the photos of everybody wearing masks and having fun might turn out to be more persuasive in getting fumbduck America to get with the program than all the public health officials have managed.

 

[SageBrush]

Arizona does a fine job of data presentation these days. Irony

~ 50% of all hospital beds in the state are taken up by Covid-19.
About 10% of ICU beds and hospital beds are unused

They are looking at turning away patients in about a week. Who will it be ?
Blacks ?
Hispanics ?
Migrant workers ?
Uninsured ?
Over the age of 'x' ?

Arizona administrators and politicians better be sensitive to what their physicians say. You can ask physicians to decide on futile care, but they will overwhelmingly not participate in discrimination.

 

[HG Wells]

Arizona does a fine job of data presentation these days. Irony

~ 50% of all hospital beds in the state are taken up by Covid-19.
About 10% of ICU beds and hospital beds are unused

They are looking at turning away patients in about a week. Who will it be ?
Blacks ?
Hispanics ?
Migrant workers ?
Uninsured ?
Over the age of 'x' ?

Perhaps a simple test.
Get 3 out of 4 and get treated.
Name the planets in order.
How old is the earth.
Describe a virus vs a bacteria.
What is the speed of an unladen swallow.

Bonus points if you remember what year the minor planet Pluto was inside the orbit of Neptune.
Bonus points for speeds of both European and African swallows.
Bonus points get you a private room.

 

[deonb]

Perhaps a simple test.
Get 3 out of 4 and get treated.
Name the planets in order.
How old is the earth.
Describe a virus vs a bacteria.
What is the speed of an unladen swallow.

Bonus points if you remember what year the minor planet Pluto was inside the orbit of Neptune.
Bonus points for speeds of both European and African swallows.
Bonus points get you a private room.

Is this basically a: "Are you a Trump supporter" test?

 

[dhanson865]

Disney world has opened in Florida.
If ever there was a test of whether some behavior changes and outdoor activity is safe, this is IT.

At a minimum, the photos of everybody wearing masks and having fun might turn out to be more persuasive in getting fumbduck America to get with the program than all the public health officials have managed.

https://twitter.com/JennyENicholson/status/1282106395307806720?s=20

Streamers at Disney World: one of them is sick, but refuses to go to hospital.

"She is attributing her symptoms to a tree nut allergic reaction but she took benadryl, saw no change after several hours, and never used her epi pen. The first aid nurses advised that she go to a hospital and she didn't."

 

[HG Wells]

Time to bring out your dead.

Phoenix and some Texas counties are ordering morgue trucks, as the number of COVID-19 cases in the states move into the next chilling phase: an overwhelming death toll.

Arizona, Texas Officials Order Morgue Trucks In Latest Sign Of Rising COVID-19 Rates | HuffPost

 

[SageBrush]

Perhaps a simple test.
Get 3 out of 4 and get treated.
Name the planets in order.
How old is the earth.
Describe a virus vs a bacteria.
What is the speed of an unladen swallow.

No treatment for me. I cannot remember the 2nd planet from the sun, and I will no doubt do worse when I am hypoxic
I better wear a mask and social distance

 

[deonb]

No treatment for me. I cannot remember the 2nd planet from the sun,

Never forget it again!:

 

[deonb]

Interesting animated graph from Jan 1 onward:

Global Deaths Due to Various Causes and COVID-19