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Here is a screenshot of CA Covid from today. I would like some feedback from the more math adept than me whether my estimate of doubling time is in the ballpark:

I take the 14 day average as the midpoint, one week ago from today.
I calculate the 7 day growth, in this case 8460/7584 = 1+0.115
I then plug this k value into e^kx = 2; kx = 0.7
And get ~ 6, or in this case ~ 6 weeks.
I realize that I am linearizing the curve.

CA July 12.2020.png
 
Here is a screenshot of CA Covid from today. I would like some feedback from the more math adept than me whether my estimate of doubling time is in the ballpark:

I take the 14 day average as the midpoint, one week ago from today.
I calculate the 7 day growth, in this case 8460/7584 = 1+0.115
I then plug this k value into e^kx = 2; kx = 0.7
And get ~ 6, or in this case ~ 6 weeks.
I realize that I am linearizing the curve.

View attachment 563912
A 2.7% daily increase is, I think, a 26-day case doubling time. Sound about right?
Robin
 
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I had to do a net search to find out who susan rosenberg is.

all the refs I found were troll sites (far right 'research' sites.. uh yeah, right)

you can see that they tell one side but not the other. the fact that a sentence like that normally gets 5 years and she got many times that - that fact is conveniently left out of the troll sites. and that she did her time (MORE than she should) and she's now out and living a life. isn't that the point of prison? or, do you want to condem people for the rest of their lives?

I can't condone what she did - I don't know enough about it - but if you did your time and did MORE than you should - shouldn't you get a chance to restart your life and not always be crucified for your past?

seems its the christian way, right? the deep south seems to really lack the christian spirit. they talk a good game, but its all hot air with so many of the racists, there.

I found accurate info about her on Wikipedia.

Not neccessarily "more deadly". I doubt Kazakhstan has healthcare standards of first world.

As @dfwatt quoted Rachel Maddow: put a pin in it and check back later. We have evidence the virus has mutated significantly at least once since jumping to humans. It is possible it's done it again, but it's also possible it hasn't and this is a red herring story.

I also don't see any use in comparing covid to other forms of death. just not sure how, at all, that's relevant.

creeping whataboutism, is what that is.

we could compare a country or a region's response to covid - to another country/region. that's a same-to-same playing field. we could sort of compare covid to the 1918 pandemic. but to bring in other noise issues seems either intellectually dishonest or uninformed.

(oblig: "why not both?")

Human's learn by comparing what we already know to something new. But we can also use the same mechanism to rationalize away things we should be learning. Wisdom is knowing which a person is doing.

I wonder if the distancing measures adopted worldwide (well, almost worldwide) have also resulted in a lot less influenza deaths. It should have drastically reduced the chances of infection. Or maybe it was too late in the influenza season.

Kinsa medical who makes an internet connected thermometer has been collecting data on Americans over the last few years. They built a model that predicts seasonal fevers that was pretty accurate in predicting the early COVID outbreaks in the US. At the time the flu season was still ongoing and the extra fevers showed up pretty easily. Their data then became inaccurate because the yearly flu cases fell off a cliff when lock down started.

Click to view the map here to see how the "health weather" has changed in the US this year
US HealthWeather™ Map by Kinsa

Covid-19 reinfection 3 months later and with worse symptoms. Vox article:

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

I have wondered if those who were basically asymptomatic would be compromised afterwards. Sure would make all those Gen X & Y people on here arguing against masks for them and their Gen Z kids seen in a different light. The other aspect of the article of course reliability of any immunity from surviving it first go round.

It is concerning, but different individuals have different reactions to different diseases. Statistical patterns need to be used to track if this is really a big thing or a few isolated cases. COVID is one of the strangest infectious diseases medicine has ever encountered, which makes diagnosis and treatment difficult.

With flu viruses some people get whatever is going around as a kid and then never have it as an adult. That's the pattern in my family. I got the flu every year as a kid and even my sister who is 10 years older never got sick. Neither of my parents ever had anything. As an adult I almost came down with the flu once about 7 years ago, but nipped it in the bud. That's the only time I've actually come close as an adult.

Other people, even as adults, get the flu almost every year.

It appears some people don't get immunity, or very good immunity when they get COVID and we don't know if others are one and done or not. The number of reports of people getting it twice are only a scattering thus far, and at least some of those cases are so close to the original it might be a relapse.

It's something we just don't know yet. If the immunity turns out to be very short (like a couple of months) or non-existent, then we will never have a vaccine. If it turns out that only a relative few people get it more than once, then there may be a chance for a vaccine to work, or alternatively most people who have had it can be confident they're safe. We just don't have enough data yet and accurate data collection is not easy.

Covid-19 Dementia in Orlando, FL

Why do these trumpers think they have a right to endanger others ?
Who is going to pay when they are infected ?

View attachment 563900

She made a mistake on that sign, the "or" should be "and".
 
Why did you post the same video in response to me? Did you think that is a different video?

Seriously click on

https://twitter.com/evilweasel24/status/1282109022305386496 and https://twitter.com/JennyENicholson/status/1282106395307806720?s=20 and they both play the same video on twitter.

If you are new to twitter that is called a retweet, evilweasel24 essentially reposted JennyENicholson's content.

If you were trying to make a point other than to discuss how many people are sharing that video, then just posting that URL isn't a good way to make that point.
It was an attempt to show the reply directly below the original tweet.

"Her and her friends in a few days."
upload_2020-7-12_21-43-7.png
 
Covid-19 reinfection 3 months later and with worse symptoms. Vox article:

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

I have wondered if those who were basically asymptomatic would be compromised afterwards. Sure would make all those Gen X & Y people on here arguing against masks for them and their Gen Z kids seen in a different light. The other aspect of the article of course reliability of any immunity from surviving it first go round.

One outlier means nothing. There will be always people with crappier immunity system. I will start to worry if more cases like this surfaces.

As the treating physician himself acknowledges it's an N of 1 and totally anecdotal. Also, the physician did not clarify whether he had carefully ruled out any kind of immunosuppressive process such as steroid or antibiotic administration in the intervening interval, depression which clearly depresses the immune system, serious degrees of sleep deprivation which does the same, or anything else that would explain possible degraded immunocompetence.

But in the absence of those kinds of issues, it is a worrisome report for sure. Of course again it's anecdotal, and we have to see whether this is an outlier of some kind due to some unknown genetic or other vulnerability to reinfection. We'll have to wait and see how common this is. But if it becomes anything but a just weird outlier phenomena, it is for sure worrisome as hell. Not just around herd immunity but also around what level of protection vaccination might be able to offer.

Lots of questions in other words, not enough information, but like Rachel Maddow would say, put a pin in this one and come back to it later.

It's probably also worthwhile to note that there are at least 2 separate strains of it as well. These would potentially (probably?) have a separate immunity experience.
 
Covid-19 reinfection 3 months later and with worse symptoms. Vox article:

My patient caught Covid-19 twice. So long to herd immunity hopes.

I have wondered if those who were basically asymptomatic would be compromised afterwards. Sure would make all those Gen X & Y people on here arguing against masks for them and their Gen Z kids seen in a different light. The other aspect of the article of course reliability of any immunity from surviving it first go round.
Should sequence both samples and see if it's really two separate infections or a single infection that went into some kind of remission.
 
Disney World should be a good testbed for identifying how easily and under what circumstances the virus spreads. There's a nice variety of enclosed spaces, open spaces, etc. We'll get to see how effective face covering are. And with the FastPass system, it should be possible to go back later and identify cohorts of people who came back to a ride at a particular time, and see how close in time people need to visit a ride to contract the virus. For people who visited rides spaced out in time, they should be able to identify likely fomite transmission events.

And I'm sure they have plenty of surveillance cameras, so they'll also be able to identify whether people removed a mask, how close they got, etc.

Should be an excellent place to study transmission. I'm looking forward to seeing some of the results.

I heard that Disney employees have face shields, but didn't see that in the video I saw. Maybe that's only for workers inside. That will also be an interesting opportunity to study how readily aerosol transmission occurs - and whether a face shield helps at all.

So many things we'll be able to look at. I'm sure Disney will be tracking it carefully so they can adjust their procedures accordingly if they have outbreaks, employee deaths, etc. They should really be able to optimize living with the virus.

Lots to learn about this new way of living.

On the other hand, it will be difficult to separate out confounding effects - it will be hard to ascertain whether the infection was picked up at Disney World, or in the community. In a way, that's perfect. If there virus is everywhere, it really doesn't matter what is open. Just open everything. There's really no liability.

This reopening should also help with obtaining herd immunity relatively quickly, and since most clientele are relatively young, it will act to distribute the virus through a younger population, which is advantageous for providing population-level immunity with fairly minimal downside.
 
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VIctoria has problems, and now it seems NSW is threatened,
upload_2020-7-13_20-2-59.png

google's melbourne to Sydney path pretty much goes by the hotel where there is a cluster in NSW, its along the Hume highway, at the Sydney end.
upload_2020-7-13_20-7-38.png

blue is Victoria, dark gray is NSW, everywhere else is inconsequential
 
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most states, new active cases occur within quarantine (returnees so not a major concern),

Australia does benefit from a small population and easily controlled borders. Virtually everyone coming into the country has to pass through easily controlled boundaries so nobody is sneaking in undetected. Australia has also strictly controlled the import of animals and plant products for years so the idea of quarantine is already there.

I know people haven't been completely happy with everything Scott Morrison has done as PM, but he has done a far better job in controlling the virus than the US's leadership. He jumped early and got on top of the virus before it got out of control.

Have you ever trusted a Doctor ?

Trump promotes tweet that accuses the CDC and doctors of ‘lying’ about COVID-19 to hurt his campaign

Trump promotes tweet that accuses the CDC and doctors of ‘lying’ about COVID-19 to hurt his campaign

This is what you get with a malignant narcissist in power. In his mind the world revolves around him and everything is about him. He can't imagine that the top doctors in the country would be more concerned about saving the lives of commoners than about his fragile ego. In his universe people only do things for two reasons, the heap praise on him for being the genius he knows he is, or to try and hurt him. There is no scenario where people are doing things that aren't about him.

I wonder how long it will be until Fauci is fired? How much more damage will be inflicted on the CDC before this is over?

For anyone with compassion this is going to be a tough summer. Come August 1 we may look back on the good old days when we only had 50,000 new cases a day.
 
Welp, my mask order from Cov.care went unfulfilled for 4 weeks so I disputed the charge today. The last couple of days they answer the new orders line but disconnect from the line that answers questions about placed orders.

I'd appreciate any good leads people have for KN95 masks. Why wife and I have been using two masks we had from 2019 but they are pretty long in the tooth now.