Coronavirus

[Daniel in SD]

From the article



Does that mean at low viral load the body would not mount an immune response? Or that it would be a weak response and not provide any immunity to future exposure?

It means we're running tests on people who are no longer infectious but still have small amounts virus or fragments in their mucus. It's also possible (likely?) that many people are never very infectious at all. The virus doesn't go away on its own, if there is a low viral load long after being infected it is because the person did mount an immune response.
I agree with Dr. Mina's conclusion that we need cheaper less sensitive tests and that we should use the cycle count data from PCR tests. I'm not sure I agree with calling PCR tests with high cycle counts "negative" and forgoing contact tracing. Someone with a low viral load now may have actually spread the virus to more people because the case was caught so much later! It seems like the cycle count should be recorded with the test results and further study is needed to determine how the number can assist with contact tracing.

 

[Doggydogworld]

University of Alabama has 1,200 students who have tested positive for Covid-19 - CNN

Herd immunity by the end of the first semester? There are ~70k students in the UA system. 1.7% so far.

Not a surprise to Covid Projections fans. They estimate 1.7% of AL residents are currently infected.

 

[NikolaACDC]

Yep. It sounds like the cool kids in this field actually just monitor the effluent from each dorm and frat/sorority house, and use that to determine when they’ve got a problem. Seems like that could work for normal schools as well. Just shut the place down when they get a hit and test everyone. This is in addition to testing everyone at least once a week of course. Who knew this reopening would be so easy?

Seems University of Arizona had good success with poop-juice testing

University of Arizona scientists say they prevented campus coronavirus outbreak through wastewater testing

"Researchers at the University of Arizona are working to curb coronavirus outbreaks at the school by conducting regular tests of sewage from 20 buildings across campus, and it seems to be working.
The university said it stopped a potential outbreak before it started after it analyzed wastewater from a dorm for traces of the virus. Subsequently, two students — both of whom were asymptomatic — were found to be infected. While Arizona is utilizing other mitigation tactics like swab testing and contact tracing, wastewater testing comes in handy because its reportedly sensitive enough to detect the virus up to a week before an individual develops symptoms, which means there's a better chance of locating a case before the person can spread the virus widely."

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Does that mean at low viral load the body would not mount an immune response?

As has been mentioned, there are two possibilities in the case of low viral load:
1) Early in infection (may become more infectious)
2) Late in infection (likely no longer infectious)
Here is a thread from Dr. Mina:

https://twitter.com/michaelmina_lab/status/1299806727001571328?s=21

if you have 1% false positive rate

I know you were not saying there are false positive PCR, but to be clear, except in the case of human error (contamination or mix up of samples), there is no such thing as a false positive PCR.

As usual, Musk is being super dumb. He’s like an idiot savant, and is good at just a couple things, apparently. I agree he could be using this opportunity to educate his followers. But as usual, just more disinformation. Keep people confused, I guess. I have no idea why he insists on spreading misinformation and disinformation.

 

[Daniel in SD]

As has been mentioned, there are two possibilities in the case of low viral load:
1) Early in infection (may become more infectious)
2) Late in infection (likely no longer infectious)

The third possibility is that many people are never very infectious. This agrees with the evidence that the spread is driven by super spreaders.

Latest news on Twitter and confirmed by our president is that only 6% of COVID deaths are real!
It seems like if only 6% of COVID deaths are actually COVID deaths then our president should work to figure out what's causing all these extra deaths? Isn't it even worse that after 6 months we don't know why all these extra people are dying? Am I taking crazy pills?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

third possibility is that many people are never very infectious. This agrees with the evidence that the spread is driven by super spreaders.

Agreed that this is a possibility, but not sure how likely it is. Would be interesting to hear Dr. Mina comment on this. It’s not 100% clear to me that super spreading is strongly correlated with viral load. I do understand it is correlated with viral shedding, so presumably it is somewhat correlated with Ct, but just not sure the strength. Another possibility is that a superspreader might be distinguished by (say) a Ct of 15, rather than 20. And the cases being talked about here are Cts higher than 33 or so. And that is a LOT less virus than both Ct 20 and 15 (not sure what multiplication you get from each amplification cycle, but probably *minimum* 50-10000 times less virus).

Anyway, maybe someone will shed some light. They’d have to do a lot of testing and correlation to figure out what Ct corresponds to superspreading status. Not sure it is possible practically speaking.

My uneducated and uninformed priors are that superspreading occurs due to specific circumstances conducive to superspreading that happen to correspond to a point in time where a person has a fairly high viral load, and I suspect that most people are highly infectious at some point in their infection course. Just guessing though.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Agreed that this is a possibility, but not sure how likely it is. Would be interesting to hear Dr. Mina comment on this. It’s not 100% clear to me that super spreading is strongly correlated with viral load. I do understand it is correlated with viral shedding, so presumably it is somewhat correlated with Ct, but just not sure the strength. Another possibility is that a superspreader might be distinguished by (say) a Ct of 15, rather than 20. And the cases being talked about here are Cts higher than 33 or so. And that is a LOT less virus than both Ct 20 and 15 (not sure what multiplication you get from each amplification cycle, but probably *minimum* 50-10000 times less virus).

Anyway, maybe someone will shed some light. They’d have to do a lot of testing and correlation to figure out what Ct corresponds to superspreading status. Not sure it is possible practically speaking.

Yeah. The bottom line is that the Ct data should be recorded and utilized (if it can be).
It's too bad the contact tracing apps never really happened, they could have provided a lot of insight.

 

[StateoftheArt]

I love how this thread just keeps trying to figure out a way to keep this going. And you guys think Elon is the one being super dumb, lol.

This will go down in history as one of greatest crimes against humanity.

The greatest roll up of power in history.

It has been obvious since mid to late April. Thanks for playing.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

love how this thread just keeps trying to figure out a way to keep this going

Huh? Pretty sure the people here have been crystal clear this should be over already. And have always wanted it to be over ASAP.

The greatest roll up of power in history.

Not sure what you mean by that.

This will go down in history as one of greatest crimes against humanity.

That I would agree with (I suppose...might be a bit hyperbolic as there have been a lot of crimes against humanity), as long as you’re not being specific about what you are talking about as the crime.

As far as Elon goes, he’s been repeatedly wrong on this, and the facts are clear on that one. He has likely succeeded (in small part) in prolonging the pandemic in the US. It is what it is. He’s wrong about testing (again!!!) - that is what I was referring to as super dumb. In general he’s not a dumb person, and I’m not saying that. He’s just on the spectrum and is focused on what matters to him (and he believes that since he thinks what he is doing is beneficial to society, Tesla must succeed no matter what - which is short-sighted but understandable for someone on the spectrum - they struggle to empathize with others or put themselves in the place of others). I do feel for him and I respect him for what he has been successful at (love my car!). But that doesn’t mean he’s correct or has identified the optimal path forward for Tesla, and certainly not for the pandemic.

 

[Dr. J]

those employees can just stay home until they get a negative test.

Not if the boss's really really really large paycheck depends on those employees cranking out cars.

 

[TespaceX]

FDA willing to fast track coronavirus vaccine before phase three trials end
FDA willing to fast track coronavirus vaccine before phase three trials end

Totally, not political.

 

[bkp_duke]

FDA willing to fast track coronavirus vaccine before phase three trials end
FDA willing to fast track coronavirus vaccine before phase three trials end

Totally, not political.

I'm not signing up for the vaccine till I see the Phase 3 data, specifically efficacy (Ab levels), and side-effect profiles.

 

[EVCollies]

I'm not signing up for the vaccine till I see the Phase 3 data, specifically efficacy (Ab levels), and side-effect profiles.

I don't think the FDA will approve till a vaccine demonstrates very few side effects and a decrease in infection rate or at least decreased severity of infection compared to placebo.
Audio Interview: New SARS-CoV-2 Vaccine Results, with Peter Piot
It is great to see the large numbers of phase III studies currently enrolling. Very few events will trigger data review (< 100 in studies I've seen). In an area with 10% infection rates, hopefully we will see some data soon.

 

[TespaceX]

I don't think the FDA will approve till a vaccine demonstrates very few side effects and a decrease in infection rate or at least decreased severity of infection compared to placebo.

Are you referring to a normal approval or EUA approval?

They already granted an EUA to HCQ (I won’t say further about that).

 

[scottf200]

Explained: That CDC 6% COVID Death Rate
by Stanford-trained physician Dr. Zubin Damania.

 

[nctalkinghead]

Huh? Pretty sure the people here have been crystal clear this should be over already. And have always wanted it to be over ASAP.



Not sure what you mean by that.



That I would agree with (I suppose...might be a bit hyperbolic as there have been a lot of crimes against humanity), as long as you’re not being specific about what you are talking about as the crime.

As far as Elon goes, he’s been repeatedly wrong on this, and the facts are clear on that one. He has likely succeeded (in small part) in prolonging the pandemic in the US. It is what it is. He’s wrong about testing (again!!!) - that is what I was referring to as super dumb. In general he’s not a dumb person, and I’m not saying that. He’s just on the spectrum and is focused on what matters to him (and he believes that since he thinks what he is doing is beneficial to society, Tesla must succeed no matter what - which is short-sighted but understandable for someone on the spectrum - they struggle to empathize with others or put themselves in the place of others). I do feel for him and I respect him for what he has been successful at (love my car!). But that doesn’t mean he’s correct or has identified the optimal path forward for Tesla, and certainly not for the pandemic.

All of us are ignorant...only in different areas! Elon is no exception.

 

[dfwatt]

From the article



Does that mean at low viral load the body would not mount an immune response? Or that it would be a weak response and not provide any immunity to future exposure?

Two possibilities in relationship to folks that test positive on PCR with high CT numbers meaning little virus. They've just beaten the infection or they're in the incubation period and about to become infectious. No way to know which is which with just a CT value. Obviously if they've beaten the virus it means they are at least basically immunocompetent. No way to know what the meaning is in relationship to somebody in an incubation period.

 

[scottf200]

Explained: That CDC 6% COVID Death Rate
by Stanford-trained physician Dr. Zubin Damania.

a) Megan Ranney MD MPH Statue of liberty
I have never, to my knowledge, filled out a death certificate with a single cause of death.
#COVID19 deaths are real. / fin

b) Reply: I have managed specialty physicians for 25yrs and I have never seen a physician ever list just one cause of death it usually looks something like
1. Cardiac Arrest, within mins
2. pneumonia, days
3. Covid-19, 2 weeks

c) Reply: This is a death certificate. If you die of ARDS or pneumonia secondary to COVID, ARDS or pneumonia gets listed first. If someone has just COVID listed on their death certificates, then that certificate was filled out incorrectly. #only6percent

 

[bkp_duke]

a) Megan Ranney MD MPH Statue of liberty
I have never, to my knowledge, filled out a death certificate with a single cause of death.
#COVID19 deaths are real. / fin

b) Reply: I have managed specialty physicians for 25yrs and I have never seen a physician ever list just one cause of death it usually looks something like
1. Cardiac Arrest, within mins
2. pneumonia, days
3. Covid-19, 2 weeks

c) Reply: This is a death certificate. If you die of ARDS or pneumonia secondary to COVID, ARDS or pneumonia gets listed first. If someone has just COVID listed on their death certificates, then that certificate was filled out incorrectly. #only6percent

BINGO!

There is a huge falsehood going around that there is death certificate "fraud" going on in how these are filled out. Simply more arm-chair quarterbacking going on by people who probably have never even seen a single death cert in their lives, much less had to fill one out.

 

[dfwatt]

BINGO!

There is a huge falsehood going around that there is death certificate "fraud" going on in how these are filled out. Simply more arm-chair quarterbacking going on by people who probably have never even seen a single death cert in their lives, much less had to fill one out.

And the falsehoods are in service of denying the facts to promote alternative reality conspiracy theories. It's an old formula for a totalitarianism actually, but I'm dismayed that it seems to get traction and actually may work. It's astonishing that such colossal mismanagement at the scale of the current Public Health crisis has not lead to rioting in the streets. But I guess we're used to bad governance. Even so, this is incompetence on a large-scale