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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
Dr. J
Active Member
Canada has a large land border with a country that has a relatively poorly educated population and a lot of difficulty implementing the sort of controls necessary.
FTFY
New Zealand Deputy PM Humiliates U.S. COVID Denier: ‘He Obviously Got an Education in America’
JCI - Recent endemic coronavirus infection is associated with less severe COVID-19
hmmmmm
'The eCoV+ as compared to eCoV-hospitalized patients had a significantly lower odds for intensive care unit (ICU)admission(OR 0.1, 95% CI 0.0 –0.7)'
tl dr
those with a recent documented corona common cold, are also more likely to get documented for catching covid-19 (perhaps they are people who catch the cold easily) but, the severity of their outcomes are much gentler than those without a recent documented corona common cold. about an order of magnitude lower odds for intensive care unit (ICU) admission
those with a recent documented corona common cold, are also more likely to get documented for catching covid-19 (perhaps they are people who catch the cold easily) but, the severity of their outcomes are much gentler than those without a recent documented corona common cold. about an order of magnitude lower odds for intensive care unit (ICU) admission
Norbert
TSLA will win
As I said, Germany had (and still has) another outbreak it didn't contain. However for about two months, it was down to
about 42 / million per week.
So 10 times better than Oregon currently according to your numbers, even if 4 times worse than NZ. Oregon, in turn, is a few times better than US average, how many times depends on the exact numbers you compare.
And I see no reason to think Germany can't get that back.
Good point. Canada was down to about 65/million per week, for some time.
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Wait, so does that mean we should all be infecting ourselves with a mild coronavirus to protect us from the nasty one?
Maybe we aren't "looking for the cure for the common cold", but rather 'the cold is the cure for the common covid-19?"
There seems to be something about winter climate increasing R0 of the virus at least in Europe. Maybe people spend more time inside or maybe their respiratory system get’s more sensitive. Likely what we saw in March, what we are seeing now and what we saw this summer can be partly explained by that. And if this is true, then November-March(or whenever we have a vaccine) will be some really hard months for Europe and other winter regions...
its a retrospective study, with wide confidence interval, so its not definitive al all.
but yes, thats one way to interpret it. but to be more precise, a mild coronavirus does not protect from the nasty one, but a mild coronavirus reaction protects from the nasty one's reactions. (keep in mind, generally the Covid19 does not kill via coronavirus, but by the body's own immune response after the coronavirus is mostly dead)
My bias, is that part (and only part) of the reason for better outcomes for kids, is that they are pleasantly all corona'd up with lessor coronavirus before coronacirus 19 comes along, and its something of a nothing burger for them.
'With the information available to date, there is no direct evidence to suggest which hypothesis, animal to human transmission (either the recent or less recent one (25, 26)) or original human hosting, is true. The evidence only tells us how viruses are related within a hierarchical classification''
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.17.343749v1.full.pdf
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.17.343749v1.full.pdf
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.10.15.341479v1.full.pdf
another avenue regarding differing immune response, Abnormal antibodies to self-carbohydrates in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients
''. Since the surface of the virus is heavily glycosylated,49-51 responses to glycans could be triggered, contributing to many aspects of the illness.''
another avenue regarding differing immune response, Abnormal antibodies to self-carbohydrates in SARS-CoV-2 infected patients
''. Since the surface of the virus is heavily glycosylated,49-51 responses to glycans could be triggered, contributing to many aspects of the illness.''
These things are actually glycated proteins not carbohydrates.
Molecular mimicry between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and mammalian proteomes: implications for the vaccine
- A massive heptapeptide sharing exists between SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein and human proteins. Such a peptide commonality is unexpected and highly improbable from a mathematical point of view, given that, as detailed under the “Methods” section, the probability of the occurrence in two proteins of just one heptapeptide is equal to ~ 20−7 (or 1 out of 1,280,000,000). Likewise, the probability of the occurrence in two proteins of just one hexapeptide is close to zero by being equal to ~ 20−6 (or 1 out of 64,000,000).
- Only the viral peptide sharing with the murine proteome and, at a lesser extent, with the rat proteome keeps up with that shown by human proteins;
- Domestic animals, rabbit, and the three primates analyzed here have no or only a few peptide commonalities;
- Likewise, the proteomes of the three human coronaviruses HKU1, 229E, and OC43, which were used as viral controls, have no or only a few peptides in common with the spike glycoprotein. In this regard, it seems that the SARS-CoV-2 spike glycoprotein is phenetically more similar to humans and mice than to its coronavirus “cousins”.
Interesting, thanks. I don’t mean this as a joke, but what about bats or pangolins? There are many other animals that have the potential to contribute to zoonotic spread.
Norbert
TSLA will win
Worldometers is reporting more than 5,500 new cases for Florida today, so unless this is just a blip (unlikely), this is the indication/warning that the reduced measures will in fact have consequences.
(Illinois already in a steep curve.)
(Illinois already in a steep curve.)
Maybe the herd immunity strategy was not so intelligent:
Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19 relative to controls: An N=84,285 online study
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1318967587796099074/photo/1
Huge UK Study: Cognitive deficits in recovered COVID patients are significant—even for mild cases & increase w/disease severity. Cognitive tests administered weren't IQ tests but the deficit that was observed in severe disease group would equate to 8.5-point drop on IQ test
Possible revered causality: Maybe the group who dropped in IQ, ie people with dementia, got more severe disease than people who didn’t drop in IQ, ie young people.
Cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19 relative to controls: An N=84,285 online study
https://twitter.com/AliNouriPhD/status/1318967587796099074/photo/1
Huge UK Study: Cognitive deficits in recovered COVID patients are significant—even for mild cases & increase w/disease severity. Cognitive tests administered weren't IQ tests but the deficit that was observed in severe disease group would equate to 8.5-point drop on IQ test
Possible revered causality: Maybe the group who dropped in IQ, ie people with dementia, got more severe disease than people who didn’t drop in IQ, ie young people.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
Rounding the corner now, with record 83k cases today on record testing. Deaths are fairly flat but starting to rise on the 7-day average. There were some backlogged antigen test results and stuff that contributed to the peak in cases today. But clearly was going to be a high day regardless.
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1319777975055699970?s=20
Our ascertainment rate is of course much better than earlier, so it's highly unlikely that we are anywhere near our prior peak in infections. But that is not to say we won't get there.
Very likely to be a much younger age distribution right now for the infections, so that means IFR will likely be much lower for the current set of infections. This is likely the dominant driver of lower IFR, not treatment, viral inoculate, or anything else. Though some of those factors probably help too. Regardless, hospitalizations are rising, so deaths will rise further as well. And that age distribution has proven to be very difficult to maintain.
100k infections looks likely soon, but possibly not by Election Day. We'll see. Have to dive into the details of each state epidemic curve to be able to predict that one way or another.
North Dakota and South Dakota have the highest per capita rates of infection in the world. Should be a good test case to see how well they can protect their elderly, as they don't appear to be taking any measures to slow things down!
As we head into the holiday season, do give some thought to all the families who have needlessly lost people they love this year, many of them young people with many years of life ahead of them, as well as seniors who lost years of quality time spent with grandchildren, etc.
Stay safe out there. Avoid ANY indoor activities where anyone is unmasked, avoid indoor activities in general, avoid crowds, and avoid close contact. And wear a mask when there is any doubt. As far as going to hang out with others this holiday, don't go get a test and assume you are ok. Guarantee your status by your behavior in the 3 weeks prior to gathering, not by testing! But you guys all know this. Anyway, be careful.
https://twitter.com/COVID19Tracking/status/1319777975055699970?s=20
Our ascertainment rate is of course much better than earlier, so it's highly unlikely that we are anywhere near our prior peak in infections. But that is not to say we won't get there.
Very likely to be a much younger age distribution right now for the infections, so that means IFR will likely be much lower for the current set of infections. This is likely the dominant driver of lower IFR, not treatment, viral inoculate, or anything else. Though some of those factors probably help too. Regardless, hospitalizations are rising, so deaths will rise further as well. And that age distribution has proven to be very difficult to maintain.
100k infections looks likely soon, but possibly not by Election Day. We'll see. Have to dive into the details of each state epidemic curve to be able to predict that one way or another.
North Dakota and South Dakota have the highest per capita rates of infection in the world. Should be a good test case to see how well they can protect their elderly, as they don't appear to be taking any measures to slow things down!
As we head into the holiday season, do give some thought to all the families who have needlessly lost people they love this year, many of them young people with many years of life ahead of them, as well as seniors who lost years of quality time spent with grandchildren, etc.
Stay safe out there. Avoid ANY indoor activities where anyone is unmasked, avoid indoor activities in general, avoid crowds, and avoid close contact. And wear a mask when there is any doubt. As far as going to hang out with others this holiday, don't go get a test and assume you are ok. Guarantee your status by your behavior in the 3 weeks prior to gathering, not by testing! But you guys all know this. Anyway, be careful.
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Looking at the data, a critical piece of missing information is the positivity rate.
Almost certainly back in March/April we were missing a huge number of cases. Based on the death rate and hospitalization rate, I suspect the infection rate was easily in the 100,000-150,000 daily cases rate back in March/April. I mean, comparing the March/April spike to the August spike in hospitalizations, it simply does not make sense that less than half the cases led to the same number of people in the hospital.
Real question is how many more people were turned away from the hospital in the first surge - at least in the hardest hit areas, like NYC, it was reported that only the most severe cases were actually making it there, so the March/April true hospitalization rate would likely have been higher had there been capacity.
We're currently testing about 20% more people right now, so probably catching more cases, than August, but 20% is not that significant. I would expect the hospitalization rate to get close to matching the August surge. If daily cases continues to climb, we will exceed the August surge.
It is interesting that the even though the hospitalization and daily case rate was cut in half from August to recently, the death rate did not also get cut in half as one might expect, but instead was only reduced by maybe 35-40% eyeballing the charts.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
To be fair, it is encapsulated in the number of cases and the number of tests.
While this is definitely important, I pay less attention these days to it, because it can be skewed by testing strategy, and it also hides the micro picture - in keeping with "strategy," very large states can have massive testing programs and push down positivity a lot as part of their strategy, making overall positivity look "better" - meanwhile there can be massive uncontrolled outbreaks in smaller states with very high positivity which you'd never see unless you look state by state or county by county.
Totally agreed - that is why I said the case ascertainment rate is much higher now.
You're right that we're catching more cases, but as I said, the distribution of AGE of the cases cannot be ignored, and makes a tremendous difference in hospitalizations and deaths - it might be a stronger factor than testing (at this point). Early on, I suspect infection prevalence by age group was much more uniform. Now there is dramatic shielding of ages 60 and older. Not easy to see in the US datasets, but in other countries they explicitly publish it and I think the same pattern holds in the US. You're probably 100x more likely to be hospitalized if you're over 60 than if you're 20-30, so a shift in the proportion of infections makes a HUGE difference. Also a huge difference in mortality.
However, the distribution won't persist, is the concern. The virus is A LOT more widespread now, and that's a problem. It has potential to explode anywhere and we know that once it breaches defenses it is merciless. The "infection pressure," the number of cases in the younger population, is growing, and it will become harder and harder to shield the elderly. It also leads to the potential for much much larger numbers of cases as people are forced indoors. Hospitalization and deaths will follow.
This is not a minor disease for younger people either. If you're over the age of 20 you are at some risk, and over the age of 30 and it is quite dangerous indeed.
No doubt in my mind we will. No problem. Deaths will exceed those levels of the summer as well. I think there is now no way to prevent that.
This is due to a number of factors, I think. Some of it comes down to the "impulse response" of day of infection to report of death. On that front: 1) There's a large delay in onset of illness to death in a significant number of cases. 2) There's often a significant delay in death reporting. Summary: Leads to an impulse response with a long tail. Looks like a gamma distribution. If you convolve this response with the infections per day, you'll get the death curve shape with less reduction than you would anticipate...deaths are slow to decay.
There's a second significant factor too, though it's less applicable to the first wave. It is a consequence of the age of the infected. In each of these second and third waves, the infections start in the young (20-50 primarily - under 20 tend to be shielded somewhat by parents or possibly their biology), and then the infections tend to move to the older people later in the wave. We saw this in Florida and it happens everywhere, and is physically very reasonable for it to behave this way with our culture and current public messaging. This means the IFR increases with time. If you plug this in to the calculations, it will also result in a curve where the death peak is shifted and spread to the right of the infection peak.
Combine these two factors, and voila, I guess!
Regrettably, it did not have to be this way. I am also convinced of that. Europe is quite bad right now, but remember they're a few weeks ahead, and they started from a lower baseline. Cold is descending on the US this week, and I think it's going to get very bad. It didn't have to be.
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There are several factors that help. Canada effectively closed the border to Americans unless they had a definite reason to be in the country. With a large land border, it's impossible to completely stop people fro sneaking in, but Americans are less likely to sneak into Canada than people from south of the American border. As bad as things are in the US, they aren't as bad as they are in places like Guatemala.
Having a population that has been through this before with SARS helps the population to adopt to mask wearing again quickly. That helped a lot of the Asian countries that brought things under control.
Internally the EU has not had regular border controls for some time, but Germany put some back in to slow the spread of the virus across Germany's borders. The US has no border controls between states, some states have put in some quarantine requirements, but there is little they can do to stop someone just driving into the state. In my recent trip keeping socially distant in a lot of California was difficult, but it's become a common dance in public from Eugene, OR north.
The US has the perfect storm for the worst outbreak in the world: a large land mass with lots of traffic across the borders both by air, sea, and land in normal times. That allowed the virus to get established in the first place. Next the population has no living memory of having to wear masks, so it was an oddity that people had some natural resistance to do in the first place. Finally we ended up with a massive conflict of leadership with some governors doing their best to control outbreaks while others were "what me worry?" about it and the leadership at the top has been abysmal. We now have an entrenched minority who are dead set not to do the things to bring this pandemic under control.
New Zealand having more easily controlled borders is a factor helping them, but excellent leadership and the population pulling together also has helped them succeed. Many of the Asian countries that brought things under control have good leadership and a population that was already some ways up the learning curve at the start from the SARS outbreak in 2003.
Germany has good leadership combined with a smaller population of idiots who refuse to comply. (They have had some, but fewer than the US.)
Our neurofeedback therapist thinks he may have found a pattern with people who have had nervous system damage from COVID. He saw a pattern before COVID from someone who had a near fatal allergic reaction that left nerve damage. Since COVID he has had two clients who had COVID and has the lingering effects like low energy who have the exact same brain patterns. Before COVID the person with the allergic reaction was the only time he had ever seen that pattern.
So far the N is small, but he wants to pursue it further.
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