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South Dakota has half the people and 10x the daily cases of Santa Clara County. They should make Sturgis bar owners pay for all this.

A majority of people who live in Sturgis wanted to cancel the rally, but the reality was the bikers would show up anyway and there was concern what they might do if all the businesses in town were closed. At least some in the biker community are not known for dealing with disappointment well.

Maybe the Hells Angels and Gypsy Jokers should pay? good luck collecting though...
 
Jesus Wisconsin, I know you people like bars, but 5500 cases in one day?

South Dakota: "Hold my beer."

(See also: North Dakota)

Could this explain the second wave? Will this strain take over America and Asia eventually also?

Probably not. Needs further research though.

this one just got a few lucky super spreader events.

Yeah, at low levels of disease, as were present over the summer, there can be a lot of stochastic behavior, and if a particular strain emerges in a population which tends to be more mobile (agricultural workers), it could have a reproductive advantage.

https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1321725353371586560?s=20

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Overall, the situation is the nightmare we all knew was coming, based on our lack of a plan. Totally avoidable.

I'm slightly optimistic that Europe will limit the spread, because they are actually taking action. Here in the US, we are hosed. The dogma is strong.
 
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A majority of people who live in Sturgis wanted to cancel the rally, but the reality was the bikers would show up anyway and there was concern what they might do if all the businesses in town were closed. At least some in the biker community are not known for dealing with disappointment well.

Maybe the Hells Angels and Gypsy Jokers should pay? good luck collecting though...

Its not the motorbike rally thats the problem, its the pubs afterward.

Consider Czech,
'The Czech Republic now has the highest rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths per capita in the European Union, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

The country recorded 1,448.7 cases per 100,000 people over the past 14 days, according to a ECDC report released Wednesday. That surpasses Belgium, which recorded 1,424.2 new infections per 100,000 people'

Czech has pubs, Taiwan has motorbikes (scooters) Taiwan is now 200 days without localised covid19 transmission.

motorbikes can kill, buy motorbikes also protect against covid 19.
 
Its not the motorbike rally thats the problem, its the pubs afterward.

Consider Czech,
'The Czech Republic now has the highest rate of new coronavirus infections and deaths per capita in the European Union, according to the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC).

The country recorded 1,448.7 cases per 100,000 people over the past 14 days, according to a ECDC report released Wednesday. That surpasses Belgium, which recorded 1,424.2 new infections per 100,000 people'

Czech has pubs, Taiwan has motorbikes (scooters) Taiwan is now 200 days without localised covid19 transmission.

motorbikes can kill, buy motorbikes also protect against covid 19.

It's not about people who ride motorcycles, it's about the sub-culture of motorcyclists who go to Sturgis. There is a high percentage of people called "outlaw bikers" there. It's the sort of culture that not only won't follow masking rules, they are highly likely to hurt you if you ask them to mask up.
 
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I am in Germany now where Merkel is taking strong action trying to be a more proactive then the rest of reactive EU:
Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

They are closing down a lot this week, my hotel is closing on Sunday so I am glad I started my 1500km Model X roadtrip back home in time. But things here are not perfect. At the customs I saw police in armor sitting very tight in small rooms without mask hunking over each other, I saw incorrect usage of masks more than correct. At my hotel at the SPA are areas where you are NOT allowed to wear clothes and mask were volontary, at the aufguss ceremony there were 19people in a very small sauna but max 1 person in the outdoor pool. Germans <3
 
It's not about people who ride motorcycles, it's about the sub-culture of motorcyclists who go to Sturgis. There is a high percentage of people called "outlaw bikers" there. It's the sort of culture that not only won't follow masking rules, they are highly likely to hurt you if you ask them to mask up.
Yep. Renim can take a look at Harleys Everywhere, Masks Nowhere: Sturgis Rally Draws Thousands, for instance.

And from, Revved by Sturgis Rally, COVID-19 infections move fast, far, people traveled from ALL over the US. They had to stop numerous times all over the place to and from.
An analysis of anonymous cell phone data from Camber Systems, a firm that aggregates cell phone activity for health researchers, found that 61% of all the counties in the U.S. have been visited by someone who attended Sturgis, creating a travel hub that was comparable to a major U.S. city.
Since they weren't willing to stay home, wear a mask, socially distance, many likely caught it and spread it on the way there or back home.
 
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https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/29/coronaviurs-taiwan-200-days-local-transmission/

"Taiwan, meanwhile, reached a milestone: 200 days without recording a single locally transmitted coronavirus infection.
The island of more than 23 million people has officially confirmed just 550 cases and seven covid-19 fatalities.
...
“Taiwan quickly mobilized and instituted specific approaches for case identification, containment, and resource allocation to protect the public health,” the Journal of the American Medical Association article concluded.

The island has also relied heavily on technology and public trust, tracking people once they cross the border to ensure they comply with the 14-day quarantine requirement, and creating an app that allowed residents to check which pharmacies had masks in stock. An article published this month in the Lancet notes that the island “had an established culture of face mask use” that meant many people began wearing masks in public before they were officially required to do so — and that the government was quick to ramp up production and form a plan to distribute masks to all residents.

Many experts have praised Taiwanese officials for acknowledging the dangers posed by the virus from the start — which may have been a crucial factor in stopping its spread.
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An example for other countries how things could have been handled better.
Yes, they have the benefit of being more authoritarian, being an island and people being more accustomed to wearing masks. But they also hadn't forgotten the lessons from SARS.

Links to the two studies mentioned in the article
3/2020: https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689
10/2020: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanwpc/article/PIIS2666-6065(20)30044-4/fulltext


Taiwan Covid: How they went 200 days without a locally transmitted case - CNN
The government also invested in mass testing and quick and effective contact tracing.

Former Taiwanese Vice President Chen Chien-jen, who is an epidemiologist by training, said lockdowns are not ideal. Chen also said that the type of mass-testing schemes undertaken in mainland China, where millions of people are screened when a handful of cases are detected, are also unnecessary.

"Very careful contact tracing, and very stringent quarantines of close contacts are the best way to contain Covid-19," he said.

The effectiveness of contact tracing of course also depends on the quick return of test results.

Mass testing, I guess, is a very good thing (in addition) when things get out of control as in the US. Including asymptomatic cases, of course. (Aside from using masks, which was common in Taiwan.)
 
I think particles would be less likely to travel as far in high humidity but the temperature is not hot enough to disable the virus.
What is the current best temperature/duration to kill coronavirus? I’ve heard 133 degree for 15 minutes (Ford has this feature in one of their vehicles. Tesla should make a ‘disinfection mode’ that heats up the cabin for the right duration to kill viruses).
I’ve heard coronavirus has been recovered off of N95 masks after 21 days. Any best practice to disinfect these masks?
 
It seems to depend, this paper shows these values:

With this conservative approach, the following become the recommendations:

In order to kill COVID‐19, heat virus‐containing objects for:

  • 3 minutes at temperature above 75°C (160°F).

  • 5 minutes for temperatures above 65°C (149°F).

  • 20 minutes for temperatures above 60°C (140°F).
It should be noted that these findings agree with WHO guidelines which report a 4 log reduction of coronavirus for 56°C (133°F) with 15‐minute exposures 14 and is consistent with information for killing other infectious agents. 15
 
Taiwan Covid: How they went 200 days without a locally transmitted case - CNN


The effectiveness of contact tracing of course also depends on the quick return of test results.

Mass testing, I guess, is a very good thing (in addition) when things get out of control as in the US. Including asymptomatic cases, of course. (Aside from using masks, which was common in Taiwan.)

What's not emphasised is that there is trust in the quarantine procedure. And an implied inderstanding that you will be taken cared off.

In Places like China and India. Ppl refuses to be quarantined and goes into hiding, creating pockets of hidden transmission. All ecause they do not trust tue gov. In Taiwan, it's well known that you can choose your place, or a hotel room (you pay half price) and gov sends you food and supplies.
 
It seems to depend, this paper shows these values:

With this conservative approach, the following become the recommendations:

In order to kill COVID‐19, heat virus‐containing objects for:

  • 3 minutes at temperature above 75°C (160°F).

  • 5 minutes for temperatures above 65°C (149°F).

  • 20 minutes for temperatures above 60°C (140°F).
It should be noted that these findings agree with WHO guidelines which report a 4 log reduction of coronavirus for 56°C (133°F) with 15‐minute exposures 14 and is consistent with information for killing other infectious agents. 15
Thank you for your information. I'm planning to disinfect KN95 masks, so hopefully these heat levels won't cause the material to denature and lose its effectiveness.

By the way moderators, I'm one of the 'lurkers' who have really appreciated reading the information in this forum thread for months. Regardless of the occasional side-trips into political aspects (which I don't actually mind), I hope this thread continues as long as possible, as there is some great info being shared.
 
Wow, a country that actually can implement a plan and do it in a quality way. I'm impressed. How much are masks in Australia? Now that the US is being inundated with non-certified masks from China they have come down considerably but the quality is highly suspect. I did buy some KN95 masks on Amazon (still can't find N95 masks here) and they at least look functional and haven't fallen apart after a couple weeks. I wear a cloth mask over the KN95 to prolong its life span. My wife does the reverse wearing her hospital supplied medical grade mask over a cloth mask because she can't tolerate whatever the medical masks are made of. They make her cough.
 
My prediction (which is also a wild guess) is 310k deaths by the end of 2020.

Don’t look yet (give it a week), but looks to me like we might be starting to hit a local minimum. If so, I suspect we’ll be back to 70k cases a day by mid-October, assuming a similar case ascertainment rate. Maybe we will hit 100k per day by Election Day!

News flash: this virus is super contagious! Since COVID is now generally thought to be over, it’s going to get worse, and then some nice chilly autumn mornings in late September should really get things going.

Everything appears to proceeding as expected. Very sad.

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310k deaths by the end of 2020 looks about right. Hard to know right now whether that's going to be low or high. I suspect it'll be low, but not sure. It's certainly within our control to make it lower, still.

Deaths are "low" for now (1000 people a day is not low...), because that's how this works. I expect to see 1500 a day in November (7-day average).

https://twitter.com/zorinaq/status/1319892084250165254?s=20
 
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