Other non professional responses about how the virus is affecting our lives, and Tesla, is also welcome, but please don’t fill this tread with jokes. Thank you.
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Coronavirus
- Thread starter Wenche
- Start date
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
Don't tell others how to comment. Thank you.
I initiated this tread 27th January 2020, to understand what impact Corona virus could case to Tesla in Shanghai, and the environment, long before the virus was spread as it is today. Now the virus is spread worldwide, and we know that people are dying, and when healed, they have further issues in their lives. We are looking forward to maybe a rescue vaccine. Now I think it’s time to focus on updates regarding the development of a vaccine, how it works, and what to look for. Of course also updates regarding the virus, and the development around the world.
I find this tread valuable, and many specialists have shared their knowledge to us. Let them share their knowledge with us. Please, I ask for you to continue to post relevant information in this tread. With good hope for the future of Tesla and worldwide. Please help to keep this tread informative. Thank you all.
I find this tread valuable, and many specialists have shared their knowledge to us. Let them share their knowledge with us. Please, I ask for you to continue to post relevant information in this tread. With good hope for the future of Tesla and worldwide. Please help to keep this tread informative. Thank you all.
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Norbert
TSLA will win
I didn't notice any specialist having problems sharing their knowledge because of jokes. Are you talking hypothetically?
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
The results from the Pfizer/BioNtech vaccine trial have not been published. I'm sure when they are it will be posted here. If anyone figures out how to cut in line I'm sure that will also be posted here.
The way things are going it's looking like we might not need a vaccine in the US!
I do have a question for a statistician. When they say at least 90% effective presumably they mean that more than 90% of the people infected were in the placebo group and that 90% is the lower bound of the interval (say 97.5% chance that it is more than 90% effective if they're using a standard 95% confidence interval). So the question is 94 people infected, 22k placebo, 22k vaccine, if the lower bound of the 95% confidence interval is 90% what was the actual percentage?
I saw statements from people who claimed to be part of the Pfizer vaccine trial (on Reddit so who knows) saying that the participants actually do know whether or not they got the vaccine because it has significant side effects and you will test positive for antibodies after receiving the vaccine. The placebo group just got a saline injection (other vaccine trials use some other vaccine for the placebo group so they're more blind). Intuitively this seems like it would bias the trial to understate effectiveness.
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The fun part is that I am a specialist redeployed to treat COVID19 patients as my OR time has been cut. I guess some people do not have sense of humour in stressful times.
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
I've always heard doctors and nurses have the darkest sense of humor.
The humor can get pretty dark among those in military combat too.
Humor is an important part of human Psychology. It was a revelation for me when Robert Heinlein pointed out through his character Michael Valentine Smith that all humor has something to do with pain. And people joke to make life hurt less. It's Psychological ibuprofen.
The preliminary results are encouraging with respect to the pzfizer vaccine. However it is very early to draw conclusions especially as there is no hard data out yet.
Remember though, even if a vaccine is 80 or 90 per cent effective, to stop the spread of COVID which is obviously highly contagious, you essentially need 100 per cent of the population to vaccinate.
Remember though, even if a vaccine is 80 or 90 per cent effective, to stop the spread of COVID which is obviously highly contagious, you essentially need 100 per cent of the population to vaccinate.
In another forum I'm on (https://www.tivocommunity.com/community/index.php?forums/coronavirus-discussion.79/, you'll need to create a free account there to see it and the site is geo-blocked for many countries outside the US), a separate thread for coronavirus humor was created. Also, in that forum's coronavirus sub-forum, many other COVID-19 related threads were started (e.g. schools, testing, masks, vaccine status, Florida, Texas, travel precautions, your job situation due to COVID, etc.) Attached a pic to give you a flavor of what's there...
In the Texas thread, a Texan posted Texas becomes first state to top 1 million coronavirus cases and, as a joke, followed it up with:
"Woo hoo!!!
Take that California. You guys suck!!"
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dhanson865
Well-Known Member
Vanderbilt: Death Rate Double In Areas Without Mask Mandates | WPLN News - Nashville Public Radio
>Vanderbilt’s data shows less than two-thirds of Tennesseans live where masks are currently required. Many counties previously had mandates but let them expire, and 8% of residents live where local governments have never required masks in the pandemic.
boggles my mind that someone could run a county and not have a mask mandate or let one expire.
>Vanderbilt’s data shows less than two-thirds of Tennesseans live where masks are currently required. Many counties previously had mandates but let them expire, and 8% of residents live where local governments have never required masks in the pandemic.
boggles my mind that someone could run a county and not have a mask mandate or let one expire.
AlanSubie4Life
Efficiency Obsessed Member
You have to allow common sense and love for your fellow man drive behavior. Regulations are simply needless and oppressive government overreach, when people do what makes sense in their absence.
(Cases relatively low in Georgia - they need to catch up!)
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up thread someone requested more info on vaccines. Perhaps my math is rusty, but I’m having a hard time getting 92% from a sample size of twenty, split between control and non-control.
There were 18000 or so participants in the trial (from memory here). Half of them, 9000, got the vaccine, the other half got placebo (salt water injection). Over time, 20 of them actually got COVID-19... 18 of them were given the placebo, only 2 of them had actually been vaccinated, but presumably about the same number of vaccinated would have been exposed.up thread someone requested more info on vaccines. Perhaps my math is rusty, but I’m having a hard time getting 92% from a sample size of twenty, split between control and non-control.
Edit: order of magnitude out on number of participants. Numbers are still wrong but illustrate the point.
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Daniel in SD
(supervised)
If the control group and vaccine group were not the same size you could get 92%.up thread someone requested more info on vaccines. Perhaps my math is rusty, but I’m having a hard time getting 92% from a sample size of twenty, split between control and non-control.
((18/20000)-(2/16000))/(18/20000) = 93% (not quite 92% but you get the idea)
The article says that only 16,000 people had received both doses but there are 40,000 participants.
Vaccine efficacy - Wikipedia
Disagree because as a famous man once sang:
"if we couldn't laugh we would all go insane"
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'd bet a decent amount of money Jimmy Buffet is a Trumper. Sad and ironic. But I digress.....
Anyone have an estimate of time to effective vaccine rollout for the most at-risk Americans? If that's everyone in senior facilities, think we'll be through that group by March?
Anyone have an estimate of time to effective vaccine rollout for the most at-risk Americans? If that's everyone in senior facilities, think we'll be through that group by March?
Current estimates are in the 60-70% range
Really depends on how it is rolled out. If through normal distribution channels then senior facilities will be an enormous challenge b/c they don't have storage facilities for the Pfizer product.
Plus given the storage conditions, there will need to be specialized training for the nurses / techs to handle -70C equipment, nitrogen tanks, thaw procedures, etc. Plus issues with the commercial distribution supply chain - Pfizer doesn't sell to nursing home X, Pfizer sells to McKesson (example) who actual stores, sells, ships to customers.
Of course there are ways to do it more quickly & efficiently, but that leadership that is actually concerned with the lives of their citizens.
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