Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

I don't know whether this was discussed here (didn't find in search) ... but the 10% efficacy of AZ against South African variant is troubling.

Oxford Covid vaccine has 10% efficacy against South African variant, study suggests

Small-scale trial of vaccine shows it offers very little protection against mild to moderate infection

www.theguardian.com

Yeah it has been discussed at some point, but yes the AZ vaccine really doesn't work well against that variant. It shows up in correlates of protection as well. Have to be careful with small studies like that, and the protection against severe disease by AZ is unknown right now, I think. I would guess it's less good than other vaccines though. I don't see it as that troubling - it's just an indicator that AZ isn't great, which is unfortunate since a lot of the world is relying on it. I'm rather hopeful that maybe they'll attempt to modify their vaccine at some point. Remember they haven't actually made that many doses so modifying the vaccine is still a potential option. But first we need to know how well it does against severe disease. Even if it cuts deaths and hospitalizations by just 50% that would be a huge improvement!

The US will likely have good protection against this variant since we don't use AZ (though not as good as against wild type or the early variants). But again, we have no real clinical data telling us exactly how good it might be. It's a big unknown, but the data we do have suggests we will be well protected.

 

[JRP3]

I was able to sign up for a Moderna shot Thursday as part of the 50+ crowd. I got on the Kinney Drugs website and picked a local small town figuring less demand and fewer people on site when I get the shot.

 

[EVNow]

I don't see it as that troubling - it's just an indicator that AZ isn't great, which is unfortunate since a lot of the world is relying on it. I'm rather hopeful that maybe they'll attempt to modify their vaccine at some point. Remember they haven't actually made that many doses so modifying the vaccine is still a potential option. But first we need to know how well it does against severe disease. Even if it cuts deaths and hospitalizations by just 50% that would be a huge improvement!

Thats the main issue. Much of the world is relying on AZ - expected to vaccinate 3B people. The same result probably holds for other non-mRNA vaccines which probably will account for over 75% of vaccines world over.

India just crossed 50M vaccinated (1st dose) - most of it is Covishield (AZ made in India). Europe also uses a large % of AZ. Personally this is troubling because it will make travel to India/Europe very difficult (hoping to travel next winter).

Ofcourse, as we have seen, community spread in one area is a threat to all areas - as new variants can emerge and spread everywhere. AFAIK, we still don't know the real-world efficacy of Pfizer/Moderna against the S African variant.

 

[EVNow]

I was able to sign up for a Moderna shot Thursday as part of the 50+ crowd. I got on the Kinney Drugs website and picked a local small town figuring less demand and fewer people on site when I get the shot.

With 40 days left for universal eligibility - its probably time for all states to open up. WA in expecting doubling of vaccines from April - probably true for other states as well.

edit : Open up vaccine eligibility to clarify.

 

[msm859]

My county just opened it up to 50+.

Mine opened up last week to 50+. Before that they opened up to over 16 with health issues. Northern California.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

The same result probably holds for other non-mRNA vaccines

Most of the evidence suggests otherwise. (J&J, Sputnik, etc.) The AZ vaccine is probably deficient for reasons unrelated to the delivery mechanism. That’s why I think it can probably be tweaked to get better results, eventually. But yes it will take time.

 

[Jeff N]

Most of the evidence suggests otherwise. (J&J, Sputnik, etc.) The AZ vaccine is probably deficient for reasons unrelated to the delivery mechanism. That’s why I think it can probably be tweaked to get better results, eventually. But yes it will take time.

Agreed. J&J itself has weaker-looking efficacy trial results but I’m guessing that’s simply because they chose to market it as single dose. I’m guessing their upcoming 2-dose phase 3 test results will look about as good as the mRNA 2-dose vaccines.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Agreed. J&J itself has weaker-looking efficacy trial results but I’m guessing that’s simply because they chose to market it as single dose. I’m guessing their upcoming 2-dose phase 3 test results will look about as good as the mRNA 2-dose vaccines.

Maybe. It's really hard to say. Overall the curves for the mRNA vaccines even after one dose looked a lot better than the first dose J&J, and on that basis I think the mRNAs are better somehow than the J&J - but again I'm not sure it has anything to do with the delivery mechanism (could be design). Or maybe it just takes longer for viral vector vaccines to become effective; I'm not sure. There are just so many variables, so little data (for the mRNAs it's just a one or two-week interval) and the trial was done at a different time (a lot more virus around and increased dose of virus makes infection more likely even if you're immunized, according to Shane Crotty (also in that podcast)), so it's really hard to know what to think. Putting all that aside though, the first dose of the mRNA really do look far and away the best, just on that extremely limited basis, compared to J&J.

I do agree a second dose of J&J is going to be better though, and probably good enough that the difference won't really matter. So far, they're all very effective against hospitalization which is great.

Back to the original point, though, there seems to be a clear gap between J&J and Sputnik as compared to AZ. Not sure why.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Keep an eye here tomorrow morning...hoping to see that jump from 9 million to 13 million vaccines from Pfizer posted here tomorrow (March 29th will post on March 23rd) - that would be the start of the flood, if it happens, about two weeks late:

Big step up to 11.4 million from 9.2 million for Pfizer. Not 13 million, but finally actually getting there. Moderna still flat, but could increase next week if they are on time.

National Weekly Pfizer Allocations | Data | Centers for Disease Control and Prevention

New weekly allocations of doses are posted every Tuesday. Beginning the following Thursday, states can begin ordering doses from that week’s new allocation of 1st doses. Beginning two weeks (Pfizer) or three weeks (Moderna) from the following Sunday, states can begin ordering doses from that...

data.cdc.gov

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Cannot reconcile the CDC data with statements like this though. I don’t know what I am missing. It looks like at most 4 million doses of J&J (the only unknown), so not sure how we get to 27 million. But 27 million would be great! That is 3.85 million per day.

I would appreciate any explanation of this mystery.

 

[MXLRplus]

Went for the second Moderna shot today in Indio, California.
There was a surplus of vaccine, very few people present compared to 28 days ago. There are lots of open slots today, no waiting.
This is true for most of Southern California from what employees and friends have told me.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

This is true for most of Southern California from what employees and friends have told me.

I got my first Pfizer vaccine today, but I can attest that there certainly is an extreme shortage in San Diego. Of course, basically everyone is eligible here. I got myself up to BMI of 25 prior to the injection but no one was asking questions of course, and boy did I have to go like a racehorse afterwards.

Time to increase eligibility and start the PR push in the rest of California, it sounds like. There will be no shortage of takers. Just have to make it convenient for people and make them aware the vaccine is there for them (and take it to them!). There's been minimal use of PSAs and other incentives to date so when those roll out, in addition to other ways to get vaccine to those who need it, the not-so-low-hanging fruit will be able to be reached.

If this 27 million dose number is correct, it's a huge increase over prior allocations, so I'd also expect some temporary slack in the system while injection capacity takes a few days to catch up.

 

[madodel]

Brain Fog & COVID-19: Are Megakaryocytes (Bone Marrow Cells) in the Brain Responsible for COVID-19 Brain Fog?

Megakaryocytes found in the brains of autopsy of COVID19 patients. Could this be causing the "brain fog" in post COVID19+ long haulers?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Cannot reconcile the CDC data with statements like this though. I don’t know what I am missing. It looks like at most 4 million doses of J&J (the only unknown), so not sure how we get to 27 million. But 27 million would be great! That is 3.85 million per day.

I would appreciate any explanation of this mystery.

The actual totals, using the CDC data, should be:

11.5 million Pfizer
6.8 million Moderna
~1.9 million Janssen

20.2 million total vs. the 27 million published by the White House.

Maybe they are forward looking by one week (Moderna is supposed to roughly double and Pfizer is still 1.5 million short)? I guess we'll see.

Anyway, at this 27 million a week, this is going to go VERY fast now.

 

[Dave EV]

there certainly is an extreme shortage in San Diego.

Yes, it's just about impossible to get an appointment right now unless you're lucky. Need quite a bit more supply before opening up eligibility. I still think lowering the BMI eligibility to > 25 was a mistake, I think they should have opened it up to everyone over 50 years first, then to all occupations who can't work from home (or vice-versa).

But maybe the county has data that shows otherwise?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Yes, it's just about impossible to get an appointment right now unless you're lucky. Need quite a bit more supply before opening up eligibility. I still think lowering the BMI eligibility to > 25 was a mistake, I think they should have opened it up to everyone over 50 years first, then to all occupations who can't work from home (or vice-versa).

But maybe the county has data that shows otherwise?

Yeah, I definitely agree, though I suspect in the next couple weeks it'll be open to everyone in California, so it'll be an error with limited impact in San Diego (especially given the low case rates right now). I'm glad they did it though, and I got the clock ticking (looking forward to wearing a simple N95 mask to the grocery store)! Lots of young people much younger than me getting vaccinated at the clinic I went to, but lots of older people too. Very upbeat and positive atmosphere. So exciting to have such a great vaccine, and the nanobots are a small price to pay.

 

[TEG]

... and the nanobots are a small price to pay.

LOL. Did you get the ones that can communicate using 5g or the older ones?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

LOL. Did you get the ones that can communicate using 5g or the older ones?

My vaccine card says they expire on 6/21 so I think they are the newer 5G type. I don't want to give the lot number since I only want to be controlled by one entity at a time.

 

[TEG]

My vaccine card says they expire on 6/21 so I think they are the newer 5G type. I don't want to give the lot number since I only want to be controlled by one entity at a time.

Wait, what? I thought Bill Gates controlled all the Moderna nanobots, and George Soros was controlling all the Pfizer ones...

 

[TEG]

By the way, random but sort of on-topic... A Youtube search landed me on this "San Diego Nanobot" video: