Coronavirus

[AlanSubie4Life]

Do we really know that B.1.351 is less transmissible than B.1.1.7? I don’t recall seeing any high-quality evidence yet.

As for B.1.351 vs wildtype (original “Wuhan” variant) I think “351” near fully displaced the original variant in South Africa which tends to imply that it is more transmissible.

Perhaps we don't, but I would be shocked if it's more transmissible than B.1.1.7 based on the current state of affairs in Israel (and elsewhere). I don't think that is just due to founder effects!

It does appear that they believe B.1.351 is more transmissible than wildtype. I guess that's not too difficult a bar to pass over though.

You can look through per country tracking here. It looks like B.1.351 is pretty transmissible, but it definitely looks like B.1.1.7 outcompetes it (you can see Turkey for example where B.1.1.7 is gaining in spite of a big head start by B.1.351). Obviously this data is subject to reporting biases, etc. There are some places where B.1.351 is getting a foothold (Romania, Singapore, for example - again, there may be biases at play here).

I just have a hard time, given how long it's been around, believing that it can outcompete B.1.1.7.

Also remember when looking at this data, one thing that helps B.1.351 is that it escapes natural immunity (while B.1.1.7 is not as likely to do so), and that's not going to hold to the same degree for the vaccines (look at the results of the Israel study above, 8x better at breaking through perhaps, but starting from a dramatically reduced level...). So just because B.1.351 is doing better in a particular location doesn't mean it is more transmissible - at this point. It just may have other advantages which lead to higher effective transmission rates.

CoVariants: Per Country

CoVariants: Plots of Frequencies by Country

covariants.org

 

[uujjj2]

We went today to visit family members' graves, in the Central Valley. Last time we went was December. We've been going to this cemetery for years, and there's always a few new graves at the cemetery each time. But Mr. and Mrs. Uujjj were struck by how many more fresh graves this place had compared to December. They've clearly been busy.

 

[wdolson]

I used to say . . . "there is no cure for stupid" . . .

Now I'm beginning to think instead . . . "the cure for stupid . . . is experience".

I say if they don't want vaccinated, fine, let them get the disease instead. It's a free country, and perhaps they will learn a lesson and tell a few people they know "I was wrong about this COVID thing."

Honestly, I think it is the only way to get through to these people.

Some people are very good at translating abstract information into a model of reality, while others are very poor at this. Those who aren't good at it need some kind of experience to drill the reality into their heads.

 

[madodel]

I used to say . . . "there is no cure for stupid" . . .

Now I'm beginning to think instead . . . "the cure for stupid . . . is experience".

I say if they don't want vaccinated, fine, let them get the disease instead. It's a free country, and perhaps they will learn a lesson and tell a few people they know "I was wrong about this COVID thing."

Honestly, I think it is the only way to get through to these people.

I'd agree but these idiots get sick and where do they end up? And according to my wife even some of the sickest long haulers are still denying it has anything to do with COVID.

 

[jerry33]

I'd agree but these idiots get sick and where do they end up? And according to my wife even some of the sickest long haulers are still denying it has anything to do with COVID.

Unfortunately, certain segments of our society have pounded it into people that believing something is better than demonstrable facts. Separating facts from fantasy and superstition is generally not possible for these people.

 

[TEG]

Unfortunately, certain segments of our society have pounded it into people that believing something is better than demonstrable facts. Separating facts from fantasy and superstition is generally not possible for these people.

Some people just seem unable to think for themselves, and look for others to guide them. Unfortunately there are those taking advantage of this by pedaling "alternative facts", distorted reality and some political agenda. It is sad when your leaders don't have your best interests in mind.

 

[EVNow]

It is sad when your leaders don't have your best interests in mind.

Did they ever ?

 

[EVNow]

It's a free country,

But not free to kill others.

Pandemic is definitely where reality violently clashes with the concept of the rugged individual (who is in actuality completely dependent on civilized society).

Unfortunately, certain segments of our society have pounded it into people that believing something is better than demonstrable facts. Separating facts from fantasy and superstition is generally not possible for these people.

On a related note - I can see how some people can be misled on vaccines. Afterall a lot of people believe politicians (and bureaucrats) have sold out to big corporations / special interests - and with good justification, I might add. So - it is not surprising that media in general and most of the politicians / bureaucrats read from the special talking points - which we find out later is full of lies (and they knew at the time). Afterall few in the big media questioned about Iraq's supposed WMDs at that time. How does one know vaccines are any different ...

Put it differently - politicians / media / bureaucrats (i.e. the "elite") have lost credibility by repeatedly lying to the people.

 

[uujjj2]

One shot of vaccine may be enough for COVID-19 survivors, studies suggest

A past coronavirus infection may eliminate the need for a second dose of COVID-19 vaccine, a growing body of evidence suggests.

www.latimes.com

The FDA/NIH/CDC are seriously considering changing the recommendation to a single shot for anyone who's already had confirmed COVID. In theory it could save vaccine doses. Unfortunately, any such change is unlikely until we already have plenty of vaccine. And only about 10% of the population here has had confirmed COVID, so even in the best case it only saves 5% of the doses.

 

[madodel]

FDA, CDC call for pause in use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine after six reported cases of rare blood clots

Federal health officials on Tuesday called for a pause in the use of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine, saying they are reviewing reports of six U.S. cases of a rare and severe type of blood clot in people after receiving the vaccine.​

​

All six cases occurred among women between the ages of 18 and 48, and symptoms occurred six to 13 days after vaccination, according to a statement issued by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.​

I wonder if these women were on birth control?

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Guess we’d also have to know if this vaccine was given disproportionately to women.

Anyway, seems good to pause. This clotting signal was observed in the trial results, and called out, but it was not strong enough to say one way or the other. Good to figure out who is at risk, and try to figure out why, and also how to treat (heparin is dangerous in this situation). Glad we’ve got those mRNAs!

I wonder whether they should start trying to boost production for the mRNAs to replace the AZ (and maybe J&J) doses worldwide. Seems like a good idea at this point. Maybe they’ll figure out what is wrong with these viral vector vaccines though. We will see.

 

[TespaceX]

FDA, CDC call for pause in use of Johnson & Johnson vaccine after six reported cases of rare blood clots

Federal health officials on Tuesday called for a pause in the use of the Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccine, saying they are reviewing reports of six U.S. cases of a rare and severe type of blood clot in people after receiving the vaccine.​

​

All six cases occurred among women between the ages of 18 and 48, and symptoms occurred six to 13 days after vaccination, according to a statement issued by the Food and Drug Administration and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.​

I wonder if these women were on birth control?

Interestingly, in J&J’s clinical trial, there were 11 cases of blood clots in the vaccine group and just 3 in the placebo group. Only one of those cases happened in a young female (30 yo) and one happened in a young male (25 yo), both in the vaccine group. All the rest occurred in mostly men in their 50’s and 60’s. Complete opposite of what is happening in the greater population.
Average time to onset (or reporting) was 25 days, with cases occurring between 3 and 57 days post vaccination. No correlation between age and time of onset.

Goes to show you the reason why clinical trials usually last years to show comprehensive data. Right now, everyone getting a vaccine under EUA is basically in an extended phase 3 trial.
I’m pro-vaccine, I’ve gotten the Pfizer vaccine, and I hope people will as well. But, it’s been my belief that vaccines should not be forced or required under EUA.

 

[EVNow]

I’m pro-vaccine, I’ve gotten the Pfizer vaccine, and I hope people will as well. But, it’s been my belief that vaccines should not be forced or required under EUA.

Yes - you can't force people to take a vaccine. But they can be denied service (or asked to isolate / take tests every week ... ), if they don't take the vaccine - since they could be putting a lot of others in danger.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I'm going to go out on a limb and make the prediction that by April 20th cases will start their terminal decline. We'll see! It's a tricky one, because there certainly could still be a lot of spread in young people & children as activity levels increase, and vaccination coverage is not uniform.

Why do I think this? We've reached a point where about 60% of people have either been infected or received a single dose of vaccine, and nearly half of them (>25% of the population) have very strong immunity (two doses or one dose + previous infection). That's something like 75% or more of adults (hard to say exactly since it depends on exactly how many children were infected) with some pre-existing immunity, so probably 55-60% of adults are actually robustly immune (due to single dose or prior infection not being 100% effective).

So there are going to be communities with low coverage where this spreads still and there are rising cases, but on balance I just can't see SARS-CoV-2 being able to make it much longer. You need an R0 value of 2.5 (on average) to overcome this immunity.

We'll see! Hard to predict within a week, though I'd be a lot more confident if I were making a prediction about three weeks from now (I definitely think we will see a substantial reduction from current case levels by then). Just thought I should make a lower confidence/bolder prediction.

 

[TespaceX]

Yes - you can't force people to take a vaccine. But they can be denied service (or asked to isolate / take tests every week ... ), if they don't take the vaccine - since they could be putting a lot of others in danger.

Understandable and I agree. Just like colleges that have said they will require either vaccines or tests each week.
Having said that, legally, I don’t foresee public and governmental places requiring a vaccine or test though. The legal challenges will be too much IMO.
An EUA is not by any means granting approval of a drug or vaccine. It just means they are giving access.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

FWIW, the White House task force says they will make 28 million Pfizer & Moderna vaccines available this week. So we should be able to continue the march to 4 million vaccinations per day, from our current 3.4 million level (though it will probably level off a bit), in spite of the J&J supply pause (which I don't expect to last more than a week or so).

So once again the US is blessed to have these extraordinary vaccines that, thus far, have shown excellent safety and efficacy.

Statement from Jeff Zients, White House COVID-19 Response Coordinator on Johnson & Johnson Vaccine | The White House

As FDA and CDC announced earlier today, out of an abundance of caution, they have recommended a pause in the use of the Johnson & Johnson vaccine as they review data involving six reported U.S. cases of a rare and severe type of blood clot in individuals after receiving the Johnson & Johnson...

www.whitehouse.gov

As was pointed out over the weekend by "Secretary Mayor" Pete Buttigieg, I think for those who like the argument, one could argue that we are a nation blessed by God, and God will protect us from coronavirus, and perhaps, just maybe, these wonderful vaccines are part of God's plan to protect us! He has blessed the US with the scientists and the wealth (and the wonderful President Trump to pull all those resources together) to be able to quickly produce these protective vaccines... This argument does not seem like a heavy lift for evangelical leaders...just saying...

In addition, it looks like the new mRNA booster candidate from Moderna boosts neutralizing titers to B.1.351 to be comparable to wildtype. And the prior vaccine has greater than 90% efficacy against cases of COVID of any severity after 6 months. Seems good!

Moderna Provides Clinical and Supply Updates on COVID-19 Vaccine Program Ahead of 2nd Annual Vaccines Day

Moderna provides clinical and supply updates on COVID-19 Vaccine program ahead of 2nd annual Vaccines Day.

www.businesswire.com

 

[Jeff N]

You need an R0 value of 2.5 (on average) to overcome this immunity.

Although I think B.1.1.7 has an implied R0 closer to 3.5 right?

New UK and South Africa Covid variants may spread more easily, so what does this mean for the fight against coronavirus?

Analysis: The B117 and 501YV2 strains may be as much as 50% more transmissible than the regular virus. This would mean stricter measures need to be taken to lower spread

www.theguardian.com

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

lthough I think B.1.1.7 has an implied R0 closer to 3.5 right?

Probably something like that (these measurements are ridiculously difficult in an environment with growing immunity, varying conditions, etc.), but I do think that is the raw R0 without substantial mitigation measures. It's probably closer to 2 to 2.5 with mitigation measures in place, though again, this is really really difficult to assess. With 50% immunity that would give an R of 1 to 1.3. With 60% it takes R below 1. We're hovering somewhere around 1.05 or 1.1 or something right now (I don't really pay attention to these numbers but it's probably in that ballpark).

Obviously mitigation measures matter and they're getting relaxed constantly, but if we're removing ~5% of the population from the vulnerable group in a week at the current pace, and we're at 60% immune currently, that takes us from 40% vulnerable to 35% vulnerable, and that takes a 14.3% increase in R for the virus to keep up (to 2.9). The next 5% takes another 16.6% increase in R (to 3.3), 20% increase to 3.96 the next week, etc.

None of this takes into account local variability in immunity and effective transmissibility, which is likely going to drive any case growth from here. Superspreading can still happen, for example. Just might result in 60% fewer cases than it did previously.

Good to see Florida is still doing "just as well" as California (4x the per capita rate or so). Florida hasn't even hit their "let's go inside it's hot" AC surge. Fortunately vaccination looks like it's going to save them, but it'll be interesting to see how that goes. They have a very high baseline so normally that would be a terrible place to be with B.1.1.7 around, but I expect them to still see a collapse of cases soon - though perhaps it will lag the nation a bit. Like I said, interesting to watch the end game play out. Death rates are in a death spiral in both places and that's what really matters, anyway.

End game until winter anyway. It's not clear to me what will happen then - way too far off to know, though if I had to guess I'd guess it will be fine, perhaps with a case surge with little mortality.

 

[EVNow]

Having said that, legally, I don’t foresee public and governmental places requiring a vaccine or test though. The legal challenges will be too much IMO.

Don’t know about legal challenges, but Biden doesn’t want to take the political risk for sure.

P.S. Millions take off their shoes at the airport everyday because one dumb guy tried to blowup an airplane with a small amount of explosive hidden in his shoes 20 years back.

 

[TEG]

Biden's top intelligence officials won't rule out lab accident theory for COVID-19 origins

President Biden’s top intelligence chiefs have yet to determine how people first became infected with COVID-19, but they say they haven’t ruled out the possibility that it escaped from a lab in Wuhan, China.

news.yahoo.com